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TalonsUpPuckDown
01-17-2017, 06:55 PM
Pretty soon Nate Silver is going to hire you.:)

Given Nate's record this past November, it's Geoff who should be hiring Nate...

gfmorris
01-17-2017, 08:29 PM
Pretty soon Nate Silver is going to hire you.:)

I'm very much fine with this being a hobby. The views at work are pretty nice.

GFM

gfmorris
01-17-2017, 08:31 PM
Given Nate's record this past November, it's Geoff who should be hiring Nate...

That's completely unfair. That model had a wide band for nominal error. Polling is always a fraught enterprise, and the main way to make it better — throwing more money at it to increase the sample size —*has all sorts of associated problems. FiveThirtyEight got the primaries wrong but stuck to the numbers for the general. Any statistical model is only as good as its inputs, and while the national models were pretty on, the state models were not.

GFM

manurespreader
01-17-2017, 08:50 PM
That's completely unfair. That model had a wide band for nominal error. Polling is always a fraught enterprise, and the main way to make it better — throwing more money at it to increase the sample size —*has all sorts of associated problems. FiveThirtyEight got the primaries wrong but stuck to the numbers for the general. Any statistical model is only as good as its inputs, and while the national models were pretty on, the state models were not.

GFM
His book, " The Signal and the Noise" is very good reading for math geeks like you.

beaverhockeyfan
01-18-2017, 09:56 AM
So with BSU pulling the home playoff games off of TV, the discussion of ticket prices has come up. Here is what I was able to gather from the various athletic websites around the league. I am not including any "premium" games or fees that may be charged.

BSU: 45, 30, 25, 18 (12 youth)
Alabama-Huntsville: 13, 8
Alaska: 19, 11
Alaska-Anchorage: 23.75, 19.50, 10
Bowling Green: 20, 15, 13
Ferris State: 16 (10 youth)
Lake Superior State: 12 (6 youth)
Mankato: 16 (8 youth)
Michigan Tech: 18 (10 youth)
Northern Michigan: 16, 15 (10 youth)

Looks like there may be some wiggle room for BSU, especially at the upper end.

JohnsonsJerseys
01-18-2017, 03:20 PM
BSU: 45, 30, 25, 18 (12 youth)
Mankato: 16 (8 youth)
Looks like there may be some wiggle room for BSU, especially at the upper end.
This is kind of shocking to me. I guess, a two hour drive makes a big difference. I think if anyone ever offered to pay $45 per ticket to watch a Tech hockey game, they would prob let you sit in the player's bench for that price, maybe even hold the coach's dry erase board.
Ryan

Shirtless Guy
01-18-2017, 03:31 PM
This is kind of shocking to me. I guess, a two hour drive makes a big difference. I think if anyone ever offered to pay $45 per ticket to watch a Tech hockey game, they would prob let you sit in the player's bench for that price, maybe even hold the coach's dry erase board.
Ryan

to be fair, the $45 tickets are club level...

JohnsonsJerseys
01-18-2017, 03:53 PM
to be fair, the $45 tickets are club level...
Yeah... but it is still BSU on the ice, not the Wild.

Ryan J

beaverhockeyfan
01-18-2017, 05:25 PM
to be fair, the $45 tickets are club level...

This weekend against Ferris, you can have all you can eat BBQ in the Club Level with your $55 ticket (yes, $55)......... You still have to pay for your beverages, you just have a bigger selection of the adult beverages in Club.

Edit: The Beavers unveiled a whole new ticket scheme for the playoff push. Youth tickets for all remaining regular season home games are $7, adult tickets for all remaining regular season FRIDAY games (not Saturday) are $16, and $55 will get you into the club level for all remaining home games with an all you can eat buffet (drinks extra).

It's a start, I guess.

TalonsUpPuckDown
01-19-2017, 02:44 PM
That's completely unfair. That model had a wide band for nominal error. Polling is always a fraught enterprise, and the main way to make it better — throwing more money at it to increase the sample size —*has all sorts of associated problems. FiveThirtyEight got the primaries wrong but stuck to the numbers for the general. Any statistical model is only as good as its inputs, and while the national models were pretty on, the state models were not

GFM

It's not "completely" unfair, at worst it's "somewhat" unfair. As an avid reader of both 538 and Signal/noise it's safe to say I was commenting on Nate the celebrity, not Nate the statistician.

Would appreciate Friday updates to your model. I'm interested in seeing how the probabilities change when scenarios are removed based on outcomes.

purpleinnebraska
01-19-2017, 03:12 PM
This is kind of shocking to me. I guess, a two hour drive makes a big difference. I think if anyone ever offered to pay $45 per ticket to watch a Tech hockey game, they would prob let you sit in the player's bench for that price, maybe even hold the coach's dry erase board.
Ryan

2 hour drive from where? Bemidji is the middle of nowhere. 2 hours of driving only puts you in the suburbs of nowhere.

aparch
01-19-2017, 03:27 PM
That's completely unfair. That model had a wide band for nominal error. Polling is always a fraught enterprise, and the main way to make it better — throwing more money at it to increase the sample size —*has all sorts of associated problems. FiveThirtyEight got the primaries wrong but stuck to the numbers for the general. Any statistical model is only as good as its inputs, and while the national models were pretty on, the state models were not.

GFM

Wasn't his issues with the primaries that he didn't trust the numbers coming in regarding Trump and just dismissed them? I thought I saw him admit to it or something similar during one of his stream-of-consciousness Twitter moment.

manurespreader
01-19-2017, 04:28 PM
Wasn't his issues with the primaries that he didn't trust the numbers coming in regarding Trump and just dismissed them? I thought I saw him admit to it or something similar during one of his stream-of-consciousness Twitter moment.
i'm sorry I brought it up. I was also thinking that we suffered disproportionately because we play too many games vs the NCHC and it affects our OOC record more than any other conference. Maybe we can get our wonderful commish to do two things for us. 1. lobby the schools to schedule more games with non niche teams, and 2), pay the refs more so we can get a bit better quality, or at least do more clinics and training for the ones we have. They are not uniform enough and week to week you don't know what will be called.
I know some of these guys are real young and trying their best, but we have to have more uniformity.

Squarebanks
01-19-2017, 05:07 PM
2 hour drive from where? Bemidji is the middle of nowhere. 2 hours of driving only puts you in the suburbs of nowhere.

Most WCHA schools could be classified as middle of nowhere.

JohnsonsJerseys
01-19-2017, 08:59 PM
Most WCHA schools could be classified as NORTH of nowhere.
I corrected that for you.
Ryan J

MaizeRage
01-19-2017, 09:43 PM
2 hour drive from where? Bemidji is the middle of nowhere. 2 hours of driving only puts you in the suburbs of nowhere.

A two-hour drive from Bemidji in three different directions lands you at another school with a D-1 hockey program, none of which are in Bemidji State's conference.

Shirtless Guy
01-19-2017, 10:34 PM
A two-hour drive from Bemidji in three different directions lands you at another school with a D-1 hockey program, none of which are in Bemidji State's conference.I think the point of the joke was 2 hours (definitely a little short) to the south and west of MTU and ticket prices go way up (at UMD, SCSU, BSU, UW, MN, & UND) And other than MSU, I'm guessing they stay that way with ND and UNO as well.

x1g27s
01-19-2017, 11:27 PM
I did the math last week, and it wasn't possible then. http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2017/01/03/2016-17-wcha-week-13-below-ratings/, second paragraph.

I don't think that Bemidji has clinched it, but I want to spend a little bit with the problem to be sure.

GFM

Bemidji clinched a playoff spot on 12/31 as correctly reported by BSU and WCHA. No need (or use) to look at specific teams that could catch them.

BSU reached 46 points on 12/31, so the only way they finish 9th at that point is if 8 other teams also have 46 points (at a minimum). That's 9x46 = 414 points. But NMU already had 7 points as of 12/31, so that's 421 total required to create a 9-way tie for 1st (at 46 pts) and then have NMU in 10th at 7 pts.

However there are only 420 total points available in the entirety of the league schedule. Therefore as of 12/31 it was assured that the 9th place team could have a maximum of 45 points, and it was therefore also assured that BSU (with 46 in the bank) could finish no lower than 8th. QED.

x1g27s
01-19-2017, 11:43 PM
Bemidji clinched a playoff spot on 12/31 as correctly reported by BSU and WCHA. No need (or use) to look at specific teams that could catch them.

BSU reached 46 points on 12/31, so the only way they finish 9th at that point is if 8 other teams also have 46 points (at a minimum). That's 9x46 = 414 points. But NMU already had 7 points as of 12/31, so that's 421 total required to create a 9-way tie for 1st (at 46 pts) and then have NMU in 10th at 7 pts.

However there are only 420 total points available in the entirety of the league schedule. Therefore as of 12/31 it was assured that the 9th place team could have a maximum of 45 points, and it was therefore also assured that BSU (with 46 in the bank) could finish no lower than 8th. QED.

Also of note, 47 points will ALWAYS make the playoffs. 9x47 = 423. So highest possible point value for 9th place team (before season starts) is 46. Get to 47, and you are 8th or better every time.

gfmorris
01-20-2017, 10:01 AM
Bemidji clinched a playoff spot on 12/31 as correctly reported by BSU and WCHA. No need (or use) to look at specific teams that could catch them.

BSU reached 46 points on 12/31, so the only way they finish 9th at that point is if 8 other teams also have 46 points (at a minimum). That's 9x46 = 414 points. But NMU already had 7 points as of 12/31, so that's 421 total required to create a 9-way tie for 1st (at 46 pts) and then have NMU in 10th at 7 pts.

However there are only 420 total points available in the entirety of the league schedule. Therefore as of 12/31 it was assured that the 9th place team could have a maximum of 45 points, and it was therefore also assured that BSU (with 46 in the bank) could finish no lower than 8th. QED.

I hadn't considered it from the zero-sum perspective. Thanks for providing that update!

GFM