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goblue78
03-08-2016, 02:09 PM
Herewith, a KRACH-based set of probabilities for the ECAC playoffs
<table>
<tr>
<th>Probabilities of Winning Round 2</th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.883</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.830</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.690</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.509</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.491</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.310</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.170</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.117</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Semifinal Probabilities</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.258</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.248</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.227</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.151</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.116</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.111</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-Harvard</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.505</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.097</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard-St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.087</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard-Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.084</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.014</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence-RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.039</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.007</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.003</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.003</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson-RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.038</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.007</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RPI-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.006</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Final Probabilities</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>Probability</td>
<td>High Seed</td>
<td>LowSeed</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-Yale</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.371</td>
<td>0.662</td>
<td>0.338</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-Harvard</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.228</td>
<td>0.731</td>
<td>0.269</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.056</td>
<td>0.817</td>
<td>0.183</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.053</td>
<td>0.820</td>
<td>0.180</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac-RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.019</td>
<td>0.822</td>
<td>0.178</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-Harvard</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.027</td>
<td>0.582</td>
<td>0.418</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.041</td>
<td>0.694</td>
<td>0.306</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.039</td>
<td>0.700</td>
<td>0.300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale-RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.038</td>
<td>0.702</td>
<td>0.298</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard-St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.022</td>
<td>0.620</td>
<td>0.380</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard-Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.021</td>
<td>0.626</td>
<td>0.374</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.014</td>
<td>0.669</td>
<td>0.331</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.014</td>
<td>0.576</td>
<td>0.424</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence-RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.007</td>
<td>0.510</td>
<td>0.490</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.006</td>
<td>0.553</td>
<td>0.447</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.009</td>
<td>0.454</td>
<td>0.546</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson-RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.007</td>
<td>0.503</td>
<td>0.497</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.006</td>
<td>0.547</td>
<td>0.453</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.008</td>
<td>0.447</td>
<td>0.553</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RPI-Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.004</td>
<td>0.544</td>
<td>0.456</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RPI-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.007</td>
<td>0.444</td>
<td>0.556</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dartmouth-Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>0.004</td>
<td>0.402</td>
<td>0.598</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quinnipiac</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.518</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yale</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.223</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harvard</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.117</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>St. Lawrence</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.042</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Clarkson</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.039</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RPI</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.027</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dartmouth</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.013</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cornell</td>
<td></td>
<td>0.022</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</table>
This last table represents autobid probabilities

Ralph Baer
03-08-2016, 02:19 PM
http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?113818-ECAC-Projected-Standings-2015-16&p=6289164&viewfull=1#post6289164

And the first round goes chalk. Will round two? Who knows? Despite being fourth in the league in KRACH, Cornell gets the "prize" of playing the Bobcat juggernaut in Hamden this weekend, where KRACH says they will likely fall in a sweep. A few miles south, Yale is predicted to easily handle Dartmouth.



KRACH | QF SF F
-------------------------------
Qu | 730.1 | 88.3 72.8 51.9
Ya | 372.6 | 83.0 51.6 22.3
Ha | 268.1 | 69.0 32.6 11.6
SL | 164.0 | 51.0 14.1 4.2
Ck | 159.9 | 49.0 13.3 3.9
RP | 157.5 | 31.0 8.2 2.7
Da | 132.5 | 17.0 3.2 1.3
Cr | 197.6 | 11.7 4.3 2.2

Semifinal Matchups:
SF| Ha SL Ck RP Da Cr
----------------------------------------
Qu | x 25.8 24.8 22.7 15.0 x
Ya | 50.6 11.6 11.1 x x 9.7
Ha | x 8.7 8.4 x x 1.4
SL | x x x 3.9 0.7 0.3
Ck | x x x 3.8 0.7 0.3
RP | x x x x 0.6 x

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

FlagDUDE08
03-08-2016, 02:19 PM
If only there were already a thread for this... (http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?113818-ECAC-Projected-Standings-2015-16)

goblue78
03-08-2016, 02:23 PM
Well, I would point out that my formulation actually has slightly more information in it, namely the probabilities for every possible matchup, including the possible final matchups, and that it wasn't done by Monte Carlo, so it's completely accurate, but mostly it's because I didn't see this one. Sorry lugnut.

LTsatch
03-08-2016, 04:44 PM
Nice job, I hope it is all correct except the final winner.

goblue78
03-12-2016, 01:49 PM
Updates to reflect last night's results
<table><tr><th>Probabilities of Winning Round 2</th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th><th></th></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac</td><td></td><td>0.955</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale</td><td></td><td>0.544</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard</td><td></td><td>0.863</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St. Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.756</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.244</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>RPI</td><td></td><td>0.137</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.456</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.045</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Semifinal<br> Probabilities</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-St.<br> Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.339</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.109</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-RPI</td><td></td><td>0.071</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.435</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-St.<br> Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.054</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.017</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-Harvard</td><td></td><td>0.448</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.025</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard-St.<br> Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.300</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard-Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.097</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.018</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St.<br> Lawrence-RPI</td><td></td><td>0.048</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St.<br> Lawrence-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.013</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St.<br> Lawrence-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.002</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.001</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson-RPI</td><td></td><td>0.015</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.004</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>RPI-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.003</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Final<br> Probabilities</td><td></td><td>Probability</td><td>High Seed</td><td>LowSeed</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-Yale</td><td></td><td>0.254</td><td>0.662</td><td>0.338</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-Harvard</td><td></td><td>0.351</td><td>0.731</td><td>0.269</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-St.<br> Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.124</td><td>0.817</td><td>0.183</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.039</td><td>0.820</td><td>0.180</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac-RPI</td><td></td><td>0.025</td><td>0.822</td><td>0.178</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-Harvard</td><td></td><td>0.009</td><td>0.582</td><td>0.418</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-St.<br> Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.041</td><td>0.694</td><td>0.306</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.013</td><td>0.700</td><td>0.300</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale-RPI</td><td></td><td>0.010</td><td>0.702</td><td>0.298</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard-St.<br> Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.030</td><td>0.620</td><td>0.380</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard-Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.010</td><td>0.626</td><td>0.374</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.040</td><td>0.669</td><td>0.331</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.005</td><td>0.576</td><td>0.424</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St.<br> Lawrence-RPI</td><td></td><td>0.003</td><td>0.510</td><td>0.490</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St.<br> Lawrence-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.021</td><td>0.553</td><td>0.447</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St.<br> Lawrence-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.006</td><td>0.454</td><td>0.546</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson-RPI</td><td></td><td>0.001</td><td>0.503</td><td>0.497</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.007</td><td>0.547</td><td>0.453</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.002</td><td>0.447</td><td>0.553</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>RPI-Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.005</td><td>0.544</td><td>0.456</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>RPI-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.001</td><td>0.444</td><td>0.556</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Dartmouth-Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.004</td><td>0.402</td><td>0.598</td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Quinnipiac</td><td></td><td>0.579</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Yale</td><td></td><td>0.135</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Harvard</td><td></td><td>0.152</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>St. Lawrence</td><td></td><td>0.063</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Clarkson</td><td></td><td>0.020</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>RPI</td><td></td><td>0.013</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Dartmouth</td><td></td><td>0.029</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Cornell</td><td></td><td>0.009</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table>