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2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

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  • 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    I just completed an analysis of the scores from all NCAA D1 games (exhibitions, games against D3 or club teams NOT included) this season through play of 1/25/2016.

    I counted shoot-outs and those silly 3-3 OTs at ties.

    Teams that score ZERO goals in a game have a record of 0-115-8 Winning Percentage .0325
    Teams that score ONE goal are 16-174-68 (.1938)
    Teams that score TWO goals are 60-200-50 (.2742)
    Teams that score THREE goals are 158-90-54 (.6126)
    Teams that score FOUR goals are 145-32-16 (.7927)
    Teams that score FIVE goals are 122-4-12 (.9275)
    Teams that score SIX goals are 68-2-4 (.9459)
    Teams that score SEVEN goals are 34-1-0 (.9714)
    Teams that score EIGHT goals are 11-0-0 (1.000)
    Teams that score NINE goals are 3-0-0 (1.000)
    Nobody has scored exactly TEN.
    Team that scores ELEVEN goals is 1-0-0 (1.000)

    The difference between 2 and 3 REALLY blew me away.
    Last edited by Freddie; 01-27-2016, 07:27 AM.
    Du hockey comme dans le temps!

  • #2
    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

    Who scored 7 and lost?
    Originally posted by SJHovey
    Pretty sure this post, made on January 3, 2016, when UNO was 14-3-1 and #2 in the pairwise, will go down in USCHO lore as The Curse of Tipsy McStagger.
    Originally posted by Brenthoven
    We mourn for days after a loss, puff out our chests for a week or more after we win. We brave the cold for tailgates, our friends know not to ask about the game after a tough loss, we laugh, we cry, we BLEED hockey, specifically the maroon'n'gold. Many of us have a tattoo waiting in the wings, WHEN (not IF) the Gophers are champions again.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
      Who scored 7 and lost?
      Good question. I assumed it was Michigan, so I checked their schedule. It's not them, but they are 1-0-3 when giving up 5 or more goals, which is a pretty unusual stat.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Tipsy McStagger View Post
        Who scored 7 and lost?
        Mercyhurst beat Colgate 9-7 on October 4th.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

          The ELEVEN goal game was St Cloud over Western Michigan 11-2 on Nov 14.
          Du hockey comme dans le temps!

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          • #6
            Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

            Originally posted by Freddie View Post
            The ELEVEN goal game was St Cloud over Western Michigan 11-2 on Nov 14.
            It was actually 11-1.

            And I too would have assumed the team that scored 7 and lost was Michigan.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

              Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

              In 46 games:
              - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
              - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
              - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
              Originally posted by Greg Ambrose on 3/7/2010
              The fact that you BC fans revel in the superiority of your team in an admittedly weak league leads me to believe you will be more sorely disappointed when the end comes than we will.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                Originally posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
                Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

                In 46 games:
                - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
                - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
                - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
                Nick,

                How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

                Sean
                Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
                Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

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                • #9
                  Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                  Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
                  Nick,

                  How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

                  Sean
                  Hmmm. I'll have to consult with my database!
                  Originally posted by Greg Ambrose on 3/7/2010
                  The fact that you BC fans revel in the superiority of your team in an admittedly weak league leads me to believe you will be more sorely disappointed when the end comes than we will.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                    Originally posted by Freddie View Post
                    I just completed an analysis of the scores from all NCAA D1 games (exhibitions, games against D3 or club teams NOT included) this season through play of 1/25/2016.

                    ...

                    The difference between 2 and 3 REALLY blew me away.
                    With scoring down from the past that makes sense, but as you point out the divide between 2 and 3 goals is striking. Have you looked at past seasons, say maybe back in 1990-91, or even 2000-01? It would be interesting to see what the break point was for those, or other seasons.

                    Your post made me interested in seeing how BU has done historically so I looked at what their and their opponents' all-time records were. It appears that historically the break point for BU has been 4 goals:

                    goals scored - record - winning percentage
                    0 - 0-72-3 - 0.020
                    1 - 16-185-17 - 0.112
                    2 - 69-257-39 - 0.242
                    3 - 164-169-45 - 0.493
                    4 - 262-103-33 - 0.700
                    5 - 293-51-14 - 0.838
                    6 - 232-22-4 - 0.907
                    7 - 164-4-4 - 0.965
                    8 - 108-1-0 - 0.991
                    9 - 75-1-0 - 0.987
                    10+ - 123-0-0 - 1.000

                    However, BU's opponents have done worse, and their break point has been 5 goals:

                    goals scored - record - winning percentage
                    0 - 0-157-3 - 0.009
                    1 - 9-329-17 - 0.049
                    2 - 49-398-39 - 0.141
                    3 - 155-312-45 - 0.347
                    4 - 162-188-33 - 0.466
                    5 - 172-83-14 - 0.665
                    6 - 122-30-4 - 0.795
                    7 - 83-10-4 - 0.876
                    8 - 54-2-0 - 0.964
                    9 - 24-0-0 - 1.000
                    10+ - 34-0-0 - 1.000

                    Without doing more research to I don't think too much can be made of the data. However, it appears to me that the better teams will have better records no matter how many goals they score, as they will more often than not give up fewer goals.

                    Sean
                    Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
                    Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

                    BU Hockey Games
                    BU Hockey highlights and extras
                    NCAA Hockey Financials
                    Women's Division I Longest Hockey Games
                    I need a kidney; looking for a donor

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                      Originally posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
                      Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

                      In 46 games:
                      - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
                      - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
                      - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
                      I have looked at BU's performance in the NCAA's since the tournament began. BU has played 75 NCAA games, 8 which were consolations games. Leaving out those games there are 67 games:
                      - only twice did neither team score three goals
                      - in the remaining 65 games 34 times one of the teams failed to score three goals
                      - in the remaining 31 games the first team to score the third goal has a record of 23-8, a 74.2% winning percentage
                      - in the 65 games with a team scoring 3 or more goals the first team to score the third goal has a record of 57-8, an 87.7% winning percentage

                      Sean
                      Last edited by Sean Pickett; 01-27-2016, 07:34 PM.
                      Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
                      Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

                      BU Hockey Games
                      BU Hockey highlights and extras
                      NCAA Hockey Financials
                      Women's Division I Longest Hockey Games
                      I need a kidney; looking for a donor

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                        Originally posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
                        Pretty interesting stuff. I have been tracking stats for BC performance in the NCAAs under York for quite a while and always found a very interesting conclusion. The first team to get to 3 goals almost always wins.

                        In 46 games:
                        - A team failed to get to three goals only 7 times.
                        - In the other 39 games, only twice has the first team to reach 3 goals lost the game
                        - So of the applicable 39 games, about a 95% winning percentage (37-2)
                        Originally posted by Sean Pickett View Post
                        Nick,

                        How many times did both teams score three goals and what was the record then?

                        Sean
                        Originally posted by Nick Papagiorgio View Post
                        Hmmm. I'll have to consult with my database!
                        Nevermind, I looked myself. Of the 39 games both teams scored three or more goals in ten of them. So, since only 2 lost, the record is 8-2, an 80% winning percentage.

                        Sean
                        Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
                        Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

                        BU Hockey Games
                        BU Hockey highlights and extras
                        NCAA Hockey Financials
                        Women's Division I Longest Hockey Games
                        I need a kidney; looking for a donor

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                          Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
                          1. Hold them to 2 or less
                          or
                          2. Score at least 3 goals.
                          CCT '77 & '78
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                          I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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                          • #14
                            Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                            Originally posted by joecct View Post
                            Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
                            1. Hold them to 2 or less
                            or
                            2. Score at least 3 goals.
                            Both

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 2015-16 winning percentage by goals scored.

                              Originally posted by joecct View Post
                              Ok - you're a coach and you look at the data Freddie compiled. Is your game plan
                              1. Hold them to 2 or less
                              or
                              2. Score at least 3 goals.
                              2b. Put up a 3 on the scoreboard before the other team.
                              Originally posted by Greg Ambrose on 3/7/2010
                              The fact that you BC fans revel in the superiority of your team in an admittedly weak league leads me to believe you will be more sorely disappointed when the end comes than we will.

                              Comment

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