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ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

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  • ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

    Here we are again, hearts full of hope as we look forward at the clean slate of the ECAC standings, wondering where our teams will end up. Well, I'm here to put an end to that hope with cold, unfeeling math. Never mind that half the conference has yet to play a game, never mind that KRACH is still using the hypothetical tie, never mind that our sample size so far is smaller than small, it's time to make unfounded projections about what will happen at the end of this ECAC schedule.

    Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^62.98 possibilities):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Clarkson
    3. SLU
    4. Union
      —————
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Harvard
    7. Yale
    8. Princeton
    9. Cornell
    10. Brown
      —————
    11. Colgate
    12. RPI

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu | 2590.7 |  92.2   7.5   0.3   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.08 | 38.92
    Ck |  570.1 |   7.3  72.4  15.5   3.6   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.20 | 32.46
    SL |  258.8 |   0.4  13.4  43.4  22.0   9.9   5.1   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.0 |  3.71 | 26.88
    Un |  190.0 |   0.1   4.9  22.9  28.5  16.5  10.3   6.7   4.4   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.3 |  4.75 | 24.31
    Da |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.1  12.4  13.0  12.9  12.4  11.6  10.0   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.66
    Ha |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.5  13.0  12.9  12.5  11.6  10.0   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.66
    Ya |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.5  12.9  12.9  12.5  11.7   9.9   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.66
    Pr |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.4  12.9  13.0  12.5  11.6  10.0   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.65
    Cr |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.4  13.0  12.8  12.5  11.6  10.1   6.4 |  7.77 | 18.65
    Br |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  10.9  12.4  12.8  12.9  12.5  11.7  10.1   6.4 |  7.77 | 18.65
    Cg |   77.4 |   0.0   0.1   0.9   2.9   5.4   7.5   9.4  11.4  13.4  15.7  17.9  15.4 |  9.03 | 16.42
    RP |   51.6 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   2.1   3.5   5.3   8.0  12.4  20.9  45.9 | 10.66 | 13.07
    
       |  KRACH |     x     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu | 2590.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.4   4.3   7.1  10.5  13.9  16.1  16.1  13.3   8.8   4.2   1.1 | 38.92
    Ck |  570.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.2   4.7   6.5   8.4  10.2  11.4  11.7  11.1   9.6   7.5   5.2   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 32.46
    SL |  258.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.3   2.2   3.2   4.6   6.0   7.5   8.9   9.9  10.3  10.0   9.1   7.7   6.1   4.5   3.1   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.88
    Un |  190.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   1.9   2.9   4.1   5.5   6.9   8.3   9.3   9.9   9.8   9.3   8.1   6.7   5.1   3.7   2.5   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 24.31
    Da |  100.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.3   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   3.0   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 18.66
    Ha |  100.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 18.66
    Ya |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.1   9.6   9.7   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.6   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.66
    Pr |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.7   8.0   9.1   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.65
    Cr |  100.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.5   4.2   2.9   2.0   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.65
    Br |  100.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.1   9.0   9.7   9.7   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.5   4.2   2.9   2.0   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.65
    Cg |   77.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.8   4.1   5.7   7.1   8.5   9.5   9.9   9.7   9.0   7.9   6.5   5.1   3.8   2.6   1.7   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.42
    RP |   51.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.0   4.6   6.3   8.0   9.3  10.2  10.4   9.9   8.8   7.4   5.9   4.4   3.1   2.1   1.3   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.07
    
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

  • #2
    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

    The first weekend is in the books. We have ten undefeated teams and ten winless teams. There is some overlap.

    Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^61.07 possibilities):
    1. Quinnipiac
    2. Clarkson
    3. Yale
    4. SLU
      —————
    5. Harvard
    6. Cornell
    7. Princeton
    8. RPI
      -----
    9. Colgate
    10. Union
    11. Dartmouth
    12. Brown

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu | 3691.5 |  87.7  10.4   1.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.15 | 38.68
    Ck |  815.9 |   6.4  41.8  33.2  12.2   4.6   1.6   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.73 | 32.21
    Ya |  773.9 |   5.5  38.1  35.3  13.4   5.3   1.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.82 | 31.90
    SL |  312.7 |   0.2   3.9  11.2  25.6  26.2  20.5   8.7   3.0   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.90 | 25.97
    Ha |  275.1 |   0.1   3.4  10.2  24.8  26.8  21.6   9.2   3.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.97 | 25.72
    Cr |  270.1 |   0.1   2.3   7.6  19.7  25.4  25.9  12.6   4.8   1.2   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  5.30 | 24.91
    Pr |  132.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.7   6.8  14.8  30.7  25.8  11.8   4.8   1.5   0.4 |  7.33 | 19.58
    RP |   93.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   4.3  11.3  27.8  33.3  14.5   5.2   1.6   0.4 |  7.61 | 18.70
    Cg |   60.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.5   5.8  14.3  27.8  26.2  16.0   8.0 |  9.50 | 13.84
    Un |   71.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   3.6  10.9  27.5  29.4  18.3   9.2 |  9.72 | 13.27
    Da |   36.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.7   8.9  18.5  32.7  36.5 | 10.89 |  9.90
    Br |   29.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.9   6.9  15.3  29.8  45.5 | 11.09 |  9.33
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Qu | 3691.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   5.0   8.0  11.3  14.4  16.0  15.2  12.2   7.7   3.6   1.0 | 38.68
    Ck |  815.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.1   3.5   5.1   7.1   9.2  10.9  11.8  11.9  10.9   8.9   6.7   4.5   2.7   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 32.21
    Ya |  773.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.9   5.8   7.8   9.7  11.2  11.9  11.6  10.3   8.2   6.0   3.9   2.2   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 31.90
    SL |  312.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.9   4.3   6.0   7.7   9.2  10.4  10.8  10.5   9.5   7.9   6.1   4.4   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 25.97
    Ha |  275.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.2   4.7   6.4   8.2   9.8  10.7  11.1  10.5   9.2   7.5   5.6   3.8   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 25.72
    Cr |  270.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.5   6.1   7.8   9.3  10.3  10.7  10.4   9.3   7.8   6.0   4.3   2.8   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 24.91
    Pr |  132.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.1   6.8   8.4   9.7  10.4  10.5   9.8   8.6   7.0   5.3   3.8   2.5   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.58
    RP |   93.0 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   4.8   6.7   8.7  10.2  11.3  11.3  10.5   9.0   7.2   5.3   3.6   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.70
    Cg |   60.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.8   3.1   4.7   6.6   8.4   9.9  10.8  10.9  10.3   8.9   7.3   5.5   3.9   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.84
    Un |   71.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.6   7.7   9.6  11.1  11.6  11.2  10.0   8.2   6.2   4.5   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.27
    Da |   36.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.4   4.2   6.5   8.8  10.8  11.9  12.1  11.1   9.5   7.4   5.3   3.6   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.90
    Br |   29.3 |   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.7   3.4   5.5   8.0  10.1  11.6  12.2  11.6  10.1   8.2   6.1   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.33
    
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

      12 games this weekend! Isn't that just the best? Quinnipiac needs to go ahead and lose though. Okay? Thanks.

      Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^55.35 possibilities):
      1. Quinnipiac
      2. Yale
      3. Harvard
      4. Cornell
        —————
      5. RPI
      6. SLU
      7. Clarkson
      8. Colgate
        —————
      9. Union
      10. Dartmouth
      11. Princeton
      12. Brown

      Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

      Rank and Points breakdown:
      Code:
         |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Qu | 5704.2 |  98.1   1.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.02 | 40.10
      Ya |  585.7 |   1.2  46.0  28.7  13.8   6.2   2.8   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.91 | 30.90
      Ha |  453.9 |   0.6  33.3  32.6  18.0   9.0   4.4   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.23 | 30.01
      Cr |  334.5 |   0.1  11.4  18.7  26.1  19.2  13.5   8.1   2.3   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  4.41 | 27.03
      RP |  170.6 |   0.0   3.2   8.1  16.7  24.1  23.9  17.4   5.1   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  5.38 | 24.62
      SL |  241.3 |   0.0   2.5   6.4  13.2  20.1  23.9  22.8   8.0   2.4   0.6   0.1   0.0 |  5.73 | 23.95
      Ck |  257.2 |   0.0   1.8   5.2  11.4  18.5  23.2  24.9  10.2   3.6   0.9   0.2   0.0 |  5.97 | 23.38
      Cg |   83.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.8   4.5  11.3  29.6  28.8  16.6   6.3   0.4 |  8.54 | 16.98
      Un |   93.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   9.4  29.8  30.6  18.0   7.6   0.5 |  8.73 | 16.52
      Da |   58.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.4  10.0  20.6  34.9  28.8   2.5 |  9.83 | 13.35
      Pr |   49.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   4.5  12.0  27.2  47.3   8.0 | 10.39 | 11.64
      Br |   13.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.5   9.6  88.7 | 11.87 |  5.52
      
         |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Qu | 5704.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.0   5.8  10.0  14.7  18.4  19.0  15.4   8.7   2.7 | 40.10
      Ya |  585.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.5   3.9   5.7   7.8   9.7  11.3  12.1  11.8  10.4   8.4   6.0   3.8   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 30.90
      Ha |  453.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.8   5.6   7.7   9.6  11.2  12.0  11.7  10.4   8.5   6.1   4.1   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 30.01
      Cr |  334.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.2   5.8   7.5   9.2  10.5  11.0  10.7   9.7   8.2   6.3   4.5   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.03
      RP |  170.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.7   8.7  10.7  11.6  11.8  10.9   9.3   7.2   5.1   3.3   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 24.62
      SL |  241.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.2   6.0   7.8   9.5  10.7  11.1  10.7   9.6   7.9   6.0   4.2   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.95
      Ck |  257.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.6   5.2   7.0   8.9  10.2  11.1  11.0  10.2   8.7   6.8   4.9   3.3   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.38
      Cg |   83.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.8   4.4   6.2   8.2   9.8  10.9  11.1  10.6   9.2   7.6   5.8   4.1   2.7   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.98
      Un |   93.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.0   4.9   7.0   9.2  10.9  12.0  11.8  10.7   8.9   6.9   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.52
      Da |   58.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.4   5.3   7.6   9.8  11.3  11.9  11.6  10.2   8.4   6.3   4.4   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.35
      Pr |   49.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   4.7   7.1   9.2  11.1  11.9  11.8  10.6   9.0   6.9   4.9   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.64
      Br |   13.3 |   0.9   3.2   7.1  11.2  14.4  15.5  14.4  11.8   8.7   5.7   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.52
      
      Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
      0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
      x means the outcome never occurred.
      RPI Pep Band
      GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
      🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

      2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
      2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
      2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

        Sooooomedaaaaay Quinnipiac will lose a game. Soooooomedaaaaay they won't break everything...

        Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^50.10 possibilities):
        1. Quinnipiac
        2. Cornell
        3. Harvard
        4. Yale
          —————
        5. RPI
        6. SLU
        7. Clarkson
        8. Dartmouth
          —————
        9. Colgate
        10. Brown
        11. Union
        12. Princeton

        Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH doesn't care if you got completely hosed by a broken video review system. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero

        Rank and Points breakdown:
        Code:
           |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Qu | 7774.6 |  99.5   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.01 | 40.86
        Cr |  521.7 |   0.3  42.5  30.1  15.1   7.7   3.5   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.01 | 30.68
        Ha |  487.6 |   0.2  41.0  32.3  15.3   7.4   3.1   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.01 | 30.57
        Ya |  313.5 |   0.0   7.4  15.8  25.9  24.0  18.7   6.5   1.3   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.57 | 26.44
        RP |  185.6 |   0.0   4.2  11.0  21.9  27.7  23.3   9.2   2.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.94 | 25.47
        SL |  258.5 |   0.0   4.1  10.0  18.7  24.5  28.1  10.6   3.0   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  5.11 | 25.21
        Ck |  180.0 |     x   0.2   0.8   2.6   6.4  15.0  38.3  21.3   9.6   4.2   1.6   0.2 |  7.21 | 19.95
        Da |   99.2 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.8   5.8  20.4  33.7  20.6  11.2   5.3   0.6 |  8.22 | 17.17
        Cg |   65.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.4   6.6  16.3  24.8  24.3  21.3   4.8 |  9.46 | 14.14
        Br |   55.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   4.5  12.9  24.6  27.9  22.5   6.7 |  9.68 | 13.59
        Un |   64.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.4   8.6  17.4  26.7  33.6  11.1 | 10.13 | 12.45
        Pr |   29.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.7   5.5  15.6  76.7 | 11.66 |  7.46
        
           |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
        ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Qu | 7774.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.7   5.9  11.0  17.2  21.7  21.0  13.9   4.9 | 40.86
        Cr |  521.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.1   8.2  10.1  11.5  11.9  11.5   9.9   7.9   5.5   3.5   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 30.68
        Ha |  487.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.3   6.4   8.7  10.8  12.1  12.8  11.8  10.1   7.4   5.1   2.8   1.5   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 30.57
        Ya |  313.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.9   6.9   8.9  10.6  11.7  11.8  10.9   9.3   7.0   4.9   3.0   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.44
        RP |  185.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   3.0   4.7   7.0   9.2  11.2  12.1  12.2  11.0   9.2   6.8   4.7   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 25.47
        SL |  258.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.7   5.4   7.4   9.1  10.6  11.3  11.2  10.2   8.5   6.5   4.6   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 25.21
        Ck |  180.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.0   8.0   9.6  10.8  11.2  10.8   9.5   7.9   5.9   4.2   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.95
        Da |   99.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.2   3.8   5.6   7.9   9.7  11.3  11.7  11.4  10.0   8.3   6.1   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.17
        Cg |   65.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.4   4.0   6.0   8.0   9.8  11.0  11.4  10.9   9.6   7.9   6.1   4.3   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.14
        Br |   55.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   2.8   4.8   7.0   9.4  11.2  12.2  11.9  10.8   8.9   6.8   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.59
        Un |   64.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.9   7.2   9.8  11.7  12.8  12.4  11.1   8.8   6.5   4.3   2.6   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.45
        Pr |   29.5 |   0.3   0.9   2.4   4.7   7.7  10.5  12.6  13.4  12.7  10.9   8.6   6.1   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.46
        
        
        Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
        0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
        x means the outcome never occurred.
        RPI Pep Band
        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

          This is a great analysis! However, I do hope that the QU winning streak continues.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

            Originally posted by antioch1098 View Post
            This is a great analysis! However, I do hope that the QU winning streak continues.
            We'll compromise. They can tie a game.
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

              Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
              We'll compromise. They can tie a game.
              Only if it's non-con... ;
              Quinnipiac Bobcats
              2023 National Champions
              ECAC Regular Season Champions: 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24
              ECAC Tournament Champions: 2016
              East Regional: 2013 (Champions), 2014, 2016 (Champions), 2023 (Champions)
              Northeast Regional:

              West Regional: 2015, 2021
              Midwest Regional: 2019, 2022
              Frozen Four: 2013, 2016, 2023 (Champions)

              Pass complete. Lipkin has a man in front! Shot... SCORE!!!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                Well, Quinnipiac did their part to make KRACH work by tying a couple games this weekend, but Colorado College is still terrible and we still need the hypothetical tie.

                Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^46.28 possibilities):
                1. Quinnipiac
                2. Harvard
                3. Cornell
                4. Yale
                  —————
                5. SLU
                6. RPI
                7. Clarkson
                8. Dartmouth
                  —————
                9. Brown
                10. Union
                11. Colgate
                12. Princeton

                Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

                Rank and Points breakdown:
                Code:
                   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
                -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Qu | 1770.5 |  88.9   8.8   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.14 | 37.19
                Ha |  481.9 |   4.6  33.7  25.5  17.9  11.5   6.2   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.19 | 30.51
                Cr |  457.4 |   3.5  28.2  25.4  19.8  13.8   8.2   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.41 | 29.93
                Ya |  402.0 |   1.7  13.5  21.0  24.1  21.8  15.7   1.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.07 | 28.32
                SL |  325.9 |   1.0  10.6  16.0  20.5  24.6  23.4   3.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.44 | 27.50
                RP |  209.9 |   0.4   5.0  10.1  16.5  25.4  34.0   6.9   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.99 | 25.95
                Ck |  155.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   6.3  37.0  27.7  13.8   7.5   4.0   1.8 |  7.91 | 17.88
                Da |  111.3 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2   5.4  33.7  30.5  15.2   8.0   4.1   1.6 |  8.00 | 17.44
                Br |   56.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.0  10.7  19.9  23.1  22.6  19.4 | 10.07 | 12.71
                Un |   74.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   5.0  11.7  19.1  21.2  21.8  21.0 | 10.06 | 12.66
                Cg |   60.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.8  11.2  18.9  21.8  22.9  20.0 | 10.06 | 12.63
                Pr |   58.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.9   5.9  12.8  18.5  24.6  36.2 | 10.66 | 11.27
                
                   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
                ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Qu | 1770.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.7   6.3   9.7  13.2  15.8  16.4  14.2  10.2   5.2   1.9 | 37.19
                Ha |  481.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.5   6.6   8.7  10.8  11.9  12.3  11.4   9.7   7.3   5.1   2.9   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0     x | 30.51
                Cr |  457.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.9   5.7   7.9   9.8  11.4  12.0  11.8  10.2   8.4   5.9   3.9   2.2   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x | 29.93
                Ya |  402.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.1   4.9   7.0   9.3  11.2  12.3  12.2  11.3   9.1   6.8   4.4   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 28.32
                SL |  325.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.2   4.9   6.8   8.7  10.3  11.5  11.5  10.8   9.1   7.2   5.1   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 27.50
                RP |  209.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.0   6.0   8.1  10.1  11.3  12.0  11.3  10.0   7.9   5.8   3.8   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.95
                Ck |  155.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.8   4.3   6.3   8.2   9.9  11.0  11.4  10.7   9.5   7.6   5.7   3.9   2.5   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.88
                Da |  111.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.4   5.1   7.3   9.1  10.8  11.6  11.5  10.3   8.7   6.7   4.8   3.1   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.44
                Br |   56.2 |     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.2   4.3   6.7   9.6  11.6  12.8  12.7  11.4   9.3   7.0   4.8   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.71
                Un |   74.9 |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.6   6.7   9.3  11.0  12.3  12.2  11.2   9.2   7.1   4.9   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.66
                Cg |   60.2 |     x   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.8   4.7   7.2   9.3  11.3  12.2  12.1  10.9   9.0   6.8   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.63
                Pr |   58.0 |   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.3   7.9  10.2  12.2  12.7  12.1  10.4   8.3   6.0   4.0   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.27
                
                
                Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
                0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
                x means the outcome never occurred.
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                • #9
                  Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                  Clarkson @ 7 assumes that CCT will actually score some goals.
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                  • #10
                    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                    Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                    Well, Quinnipiac did their part to make KRACH work by tying a couple games this weekend, but Colorado College is still terrible and we still need the hypothetical tie.
                    I'm not a statistician, but I believe their recommendation is to always use the "hypothetical" tie, even if the results are well-formed. I don't know all the reasons why, but that stuck in my brain somehow.
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                    • #11
                      Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                      Originally posted by LynahFan View Post
                      I'm not a statistician, but I believe their recommendation is to always use the "hypothetical" tie, even if the results are well-formed. I don't know all the reasons why, but that stuck in my brain somehow.
                      The hypothetical tie typically goes away when every team involved has played each other team at least once.

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                      • #12
                        Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                        Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                        The hypothetical tie typically goes away when every team involved has played each other team at least once.
                        False. Try again.
                        Keep an open mind. Just don't be so open-minded that your brain falls out.

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                        • #13
                          Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                          Originally posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
                          The hypothetical tie typically goes away when every team involved has played each other team at least once.
                          It's when you can say every team is better than any other team by a transitive chain (e.g., UA_ is better than BC because UA_ > RPI > BC). They can be quite a bit more complicated, but that's what you need. We're waiting on Colorado College to win a game. I don't actually know if the other 59 teams are all in one comparable group. Someone on ELynah usually keeps track of that, but I haven't looked at it this season.
                          RPI Pep Band
                          GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                          🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                          2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                          2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                          2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                            Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                            It's when you can say every team is better than any other team by a transitive chain (e.g., UA_ is better than BC because UA_ > RPI > BC). They can be quite a bit more complicated, but that's what you need. We're waiting on Colorado College to win a game. I don't actually know if the other 59 teams are all in one comparable group. Someone on ELynah usually keeps track of that, but I haven't looked at it this season.
                            He hasn't done that in at least two years.
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                            • #15
                              Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

                              Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                              It's when you can say every team is better than any other team by a transitive chain (e.g., UA_ is better than BC because UA_ > RPI > BC). They can be quite a bit more complicated, but that's what you need. We're waiting on Colorado College to win a game. I don't actually know if the other 59 teams are all in one comparable group. Someone on ELynah usually keeps track of that, but I haven't looked at it this season.
                              Fair enough; I thought you got rid of it when everyone played each other last year. Perhaps they were coincidental. I did see, on the Quinnipiac thread, how AIC is better than BC.

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