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TonyTheTiger20
09-07-2015, 05:28 PM
HOCKEY... #SOON

With college football kicking off this weekend, the itch for hockey has really gotten bad. So I figured we could fire up the ol' USCHO machine and kick off this year's poster's poll.

I did a little research to see which teams were losing the most scoring. The attached graph is a result. From left to right on the bottom are the teams who have lost the highest percentage of their 2014-2015 goals to graduation, from most lost to least lost. It includes the top 20 teams in the season-ending RPI, plus RIT (included them as the only remaining conference champion).

The results were interesting -- the top 5 on the list lost a staggering 45% of their scoring or more, with RIT, Duluth, and Cornell losing more than half.

CLICK FOR GRAPH (http://i.imgur.com/qjwgDRN.png) (You might need to reload the page after it opens, sometimes the image doesn't show right away) ***UPDATED***

The blue bar represents the returning goals per game of the roster, the green bar represents the goals per game lost to graduation (with the combined bar representing total 2014-2015 scoring) and the orange line represents the percent of scoring lost (axis on the right side).

Using this, I'll have my preliminary poster's poll in the next post.

vicb
09-07-2015, 06:34 PM
HOCKEY... #SOON

With college football kicking off this weekend, the itch for hockey has really gotten bad. So I figured we could fire up the ol' USCHO machine and kick off this year's poster's poll.

I did a little research to see which teams were losing the most scoring. The attached graph is a result. From left to right on the bottom are the teams who have lost the highest percentage of their 2014-2015 goals to graduation, from most lost to least lost. It includes the top 20 teams in the season-ending RPI, plus RIT (included them as the only remaining conference champion).

The results were interesting -- the top 5 on the list lost a staggering 45% of their scoring or more, with RIT, Duluth, and Cornell losing more than half.

CLICK FOR GRAPH (http://i.imgur.com/4BmU78O.png) (You might need to reload the page after it opens, sometimes the image doesn't show right away)

The blue bar represents the returning goals per game of the roster, the green bar represents the goals per game lost to graduation (with the combined bar representing total 2014-2015 scoring) and the orange line represents the percent of scoring lost (axis on the right side).

Using this, I'll have my preliminary poster's poll in the next post.

Nice Table.
Not sure where you got your ECAC Stats. Here is what I calculated
<pre>
Team Games G/Gm Rtn G/Gm Lost
Cornell 33 1.58 1.70
Harvard 36 2.47 1.17
Brown 29 0.93 1.07
Yale 31 2.19 0.81
St Law 36 2.17 0.75
Dart 30 2.03 0.67
Colgate 34 0.94 0.65
Quinni 38 1.92 0.63
RPI 34 1.29 0.56
Union 34 0.79 0.44
Clark 38 2.55 0.32
Prin 31 2.13 0.26
</pre>

In your Graph should have left to right Cornell, Harvard, Yale, SLU, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Clarkson and Princeton.

vicb
09-07-2015, 06:53 PM
My SWAG:

1) Minnesota
2) Wisconsin
3) BC

4) North Dakota
5) Clarkson
6) Harvard
7) Quinnipiac

8) BU
9) Ohio State
10) Bemidji

1-3 are locks in some order
4-7 shuffle the deck and these 4 could come in any order
8-10 are SWAGS

TonyTheTiger20
09-07-2015, 06:59 PM
1) Minnesota -- It's going to take at least two losses and an undefeated BC for me to drop the Gophers from this spot. They are really scary this year.

2) Boston College -- BC 2: Electric Boogaloo. Same song and dance as last year, but with gluten-free cupcakes. The two teams that were supposed to be the strongest non-Harvard parts of the schedule this season (2xCornell and 2xUMD) are going to be atrocious. Both lost over half their scoring to graduation. BC will waltz through the regular season with at most two losses (I'm pencilling in BC vs. BU during Four Nations as a L) but it won't mean much. We are 2010 Mercyhurst. We might as well join the CHA.

No one will touch these two teams this year. The order might change, but you can sharpie them both in as #1 and #2 overall seeds for the NCAA tournament.

3) Clarkson -- They weren't that far off last year (and mostly they were wildly inconsistent). This year they lose almost nothing to graduation. They're in the big mess of teams but I think they're at the top of it.

4) Harvard -- I was originally more bearish on Harvard because they lose a ton of players, but they weren't very top-heavy last year so they aren't TOO decimated. No doubt about it, they lose a lot, but I am fairly sure they'll be a top 5 team. The problem is, after the top 2, it is extremely murky all the way down to like 8th.

5) Wisconsin -- Badgers fans are acting like the sky is falling. They lose a ton of scoring but they were too highly ranked last year to fall out of contention for home ice entirely.

6) Bemidji State -- THE MIGHTY MIDGE. Another team that doesn't lose very much that looked pretty darn good last year. They will make the tournament.

7) Northeastern -- I am 100% sure that NU will be a top 10 team this year. They lost three (3) goals to graduation. Three. And lost in all this is the return of Paige Savage. They lose Chloe Desjardins, but Sarah Foss impressed the hell out of me last year in relief. I'm telling you right now: I think NU finally makes the tournament this year.

8) Boston University -- NU and BU are going to battle for 2nd in Hockey East this year and it's going to be really close. Poulin graduates after her 9th year of eligibility (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76RrdwElnTU), which drops BU a bit (they don't lose much else) and NU takes a step ahead. The end result is they are both on the bubble.

9) North Dakota -- They'll pretty much hold steady just outside the tournament bubble. Sorry NoDak fans. That's pretty much your life now, isn't it...

10) Penn State -- BOLD PICK! They were very quietly just outside the TUC line last year and graduated zero (0) players. Definitely a TUC this year. They will battle Mercyhurst for the CHA this year. Putting Penn State in 10th because I don't think anyone else will and they need to be acknowledged as Also Receiving Votes on the first poll. But I think they and Mercyhurst are in a virtual tie for 10th.

Honorable Mention: Mercyhurst -- They'll be back to relevance this year but I don't think it'll be enough to make the tournament. BC and UM are in a class of their own but behind them are a whole lot of decent-to-good teams.

Honorable Mention Without Pithy Comment: Princeton

Teams That Are Usually At Least Decent But Who Will Be Horrible This Year: UMD, Cornell, Vermont.

TonyTheTiger20
09-07-2015, 07:09 PM
Nice Table.
Not sure where you got your ECAC Stats. Here is what I calculated
<pre>
Team Games G/Gm Rtn G/Gm Lost
St Law 36 2.17 0.75
Quinni 38 1.92 0.63
</pre>

These are the only two I have different... Not sure where the difference is; I pulled up seniors only and subtracted. Just double checked, they seem right to me. Where did you get yours? I got mine here (http://collegehockeyinc.com/stats/filtersw15.php).

For SLU I have Kayla Raniwsky F, Amanda Boulier D, Jacqueline Wand F, Jessica Hon F, Ellie Williams F, and Carmen MacDonald G graduating.

For QU I have Nicole Kosta F, Erica Udén Johansson F, Shiann Darkangelo F, Morgan Fritz-Ward F, and Chelsea Laden G graduating.

Looking at the different numbers I think both schools have one player as leaving/one as staying that shouldn't be.

vicb
09-07-2015, 08:50 PM
These are the only two I have different... Not sure where the difference is; I pulled up seniors only and subtracted. Just double checked, they seem right to me. Where did you get yours? I got mine here (http://collegehockeyinc.com/stats/filtersw15.php).

For SLU I have Kayla Raniwsky F, Amanda Boulier D, Jacqueline Wand F, Jessica Hon F, Ellie Williams F, and Carmen MacDonald G graduating.

For QU I have Nicole Kosta F, Erica Udén Johansson F, Shiann Darkangelo F, Morgan Fritz-Ward F, and Chelsea Laden G graduating.

Looking at the different numbers I think both schools have one player as leaving/one as staying that shouldn't be.

If you read any of the ECAC thread that I started you would have found out, just like I did, that Boulier of SLU and Kosta of Quinny have another year due to Med Redshirt. I updated my tables with this new info.

TonyTheTiger20
09-07-2015, 09:29 PM
If you read any of the ECAC thread that I started you would have found out, just like I did, that Boulier of SLU and Kosta of Quinny have another year due to Med Redshirt. I updated my tables with this new info.
I'm sorry I haven't read the ECAC thread lol. Thanks for the info. I'll update the chart in the morning when I get back to my computer.

Watson Rink
09-07-2015, 10:07 PM
My SWAG:

*****
4) North Dakota
5) Clarkson
6) Harvard
7) Quinnipiac
*****
4-7 shuffle the deck and these 4 could come in any order ......

I absolutely agree that Clarkson and Harvard will have an exciting nip and tuck all year and believe that both will make the NCAAs, although Harvard had better not expect to pull two more rabbits out of the hat against BC to offset losing the season series to Clarkson and splitting their series with SLU, Dmth, Princeton et al. as they did last year.....Quinnipiac looks very hard to predict and we'll just have to see whether their incredible defensive prowess last year owed more to all their players buying into an ethos of indefatigable effort or to the individual skills of their Clarkson/Harvard-quality goalie who has now graduated. Only time will tell.

Eeyore
09-07-2015, 10:07 PM
10) Penn State -- BOLD PICK! They were very quietly just outside the TUC line last year and graduated zero (0) players.

However, 4th leading scorer Caitlyn Reilly transferred to Minnesota.

TonyTheTiger20
09-08-2015, 06:51 AM
However, 4th leading scorer Caitlyn Reilly transferred to Minnesota.
Hmmmm interesting

Eeyore
09-08-2015, 07:25 AM
Hmmmm interesting

It's actually pretty easy to figure out what happened. She has two brothers that play for Minnesota; it would be three if Mike hadn't left for the NHL after his junior year.

TonyTheTiger20
09-08-2015, 07:41 AM
It's actually pretty easy to figure out what happened. She has two brothers that play for Minnesota; it would be three if Mike hadn't left for the NHL after his junior year.

I mean it's interesting for how I set my rankings haha

TonyTheTiger20
09-08-2015, 09:00 AM
I'm sorry I haven't read the ECAC thread lol. Thanks for the info. I'll update the chart in the morning when I get back to my computer.
Updated link in the original post to add back in these two players, plus removed the Penn State player who transferred to UM.

pokechecker
09-08-2015, 09:57 AM
Given that the recent Canada-US U22 series resulted in the Gophers outscoring both Canada & USA I’m going with the Gophers as #1 until somebody proves differently.

Gophers – 5
Canada – 3
USA - 3

bc6696
09-08-2015, 10:22 AM
1) Minnesota
2) Boston College
3) Wisconsin
4) Clarkson
5) Harvard
6) N Dakota
7) Boston University
8) BSU
9) Quinnipiac
10) Mercyhurst

FiveHoleFrenzy
09-08-2015, 10:43 AM
1> BC - Talented...No doubt about it. Someday they're going to put it all together, right?
2> Minnesota - Probably be ranked differently if I had money on it.
3> Wisconsin - Talent level rising but not quite where it needs to be.
4> Harvard - Should be an interesting ECAC battle which I'm guessing, when the dust clears, shows Harvard at the top.
5> Clarkson - They have that elusive Eastern National Championship so there is that.
6> BU - Somebody has to finish runner-up to BC, Most likely BU.
7> North Dakota - Some rare success against Minnesota but some struggles against the rest of the league. Meh...
8> Northeastern - Evidently, forgettable.
9> Bemidji - If only they played Minnesota more often...
10> Quinnipiac - We will see if that good defense can repeat or if it is just a mirage.

bc6696
09-08-2015, 11:57 AM
1> BC - Talented...No doubt about it. Someday they're going to put it all together, right?
2> Minnesota - Probably be ranked differently if I had money on it.
3> Wisconsin - Talent level rising but not quite where it needs to be.
4> Harvard - Should be an interesting ECAC battle which I'm guessing, when the dust clears, shows Harvard at the top.
5> Clarkson - They have that elusive Eastern National Championship so there is that.
6> BU - Somebody has to finish runner-up to BC, Most likely BU.
7> North Dakota - Some rare success against Minnesota but some struggles against the rest of the league. Meh...
9> Bemidji - If only they played Minnesota more often...
10> Quinnipiac - We will see if that good defense can repeat or if it is just a mirage.

No #8 for you?

ARM
09-08-2015, 12:06 PM
...
7> North Dakota - Some rare success against Minnesota but some struggles against the rest of the league. Meh...
9> Bemidji - If only they played Minnesota more often...
10> Quinnipiac - We will see if that good defense can repeat or if it is just a mirage.


No #8 for you?My guesses are either that the black hole where a UND nickname should be swallowed up the #8 team, or #8 is a placeholder for the eventual CHA champ. (the more likely choice of "forgot" is rather boring.)

Timothy A
09-08-2015, 12:26 PM
1. Rodents
2. Mary Kay Bakers
3. Duggan's Knights
4. Monsters of Monona
5. June Cleavers
6. Stoners
7. Noreasters
8. Custer's Clobberers
9. The Pup can't skate a lick
10. Cuepups

I have the Monsters of Monona a little high, but I lack the info to find a reason to bump them lower than 4. The June Cleavers have only graduated 16% of the points and they can play D, they will be a force.

TonyTheTiger20
09-08-2015, 12:29 PM
6. Stoners


I really don't think UVM has a shot his year tbh

:D :D

I seriously don't know who most of your references are pointing to but I'm going to enjoy myself trying to guess lol