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Driftryder
03-09-2015, 10:09 AM
Minnesota hosts Penn State at Mariucci this weekend, Friday game is at 7pm and is on BTN2GO and Saturday is at 7 pm and is on FSN Plus.

Minnesota is currently 1 point behind Michigan State for first in the B1G, tied with Michigan. Michigan State and Michigan play each other this weekend. The Gophers would need a sweep of Penn State and a split for Michigan Michigan State to win their 2nd B1G title in 2 years.


Go


Edit:Not sure how the tie breakers would work if we sweep and Michigan or Michigan State win and then tie with either a SO win or loss.

HarleyMC
03-09-2015, 02:25 PM
Not sure how the tie breakers would work if we sweep and Michigan or Michigan State win and then tie with either a SO win or loss.

B1G Conference Title Tiebreakers

1) Gophers: Sweep Penn State = 6 pts., B1G total 39 pts.

.....a) Michigan State: W and Shootout win = 5 pts., B1G total 39 pts. Gophers win on better W% vs MSU on the second tiebreaker (.625 vs .375).

.....b) Michigan: Sweep MSU = 6 pts., B1G total 39 pts. Michigan wins on the first tiebreaker of most B1G wins with 13 vs Gophers 12.

2) Gophers: Win and a Shootout win = 5 pts., B1G total 38 pts.

.....a) Michigan State: W and Shootout loss = 4 pts., B1G total 38 pts. Gophers win on better W% vs MSU on the second tiebreaker (.625 vs .375).

.....b) Michigan: W and Shootout win = 5 pts., B1G total 38 pts. Michigan wins on the first tiebreaker of most B1G wins with 12 vs Gophers 11.

3) Gophers: Win and a Shootout loss = 4 pts., B1G total 37 pts.

.....a) Michigan State and Michigan: Split = 3 pts., Michigan B1G total 36 pts./Michigan State B1G total 37 pts. Gophers win on better W% vs MSU on the second tiebreaker (.625 vs .375).

.....b) Michigan: W and Shootout loss = 4 pts, B1G total 37 pts. Michigan wins on the first tiebreaker of most B1G wins with 12 vs Gophers 11.

4) Gophers: Split = 3 pts., B1G total 36 pts. Cannot win the B1G title with a weekend split.

Driftryder
03-09-2015, 02:33 PM
Thanks Harley.

Also, the Friday game is being picked up and televised locally by the CW channel 23. It's streamed on BTN2GO as well.

HarleyMC
03-09-2015, 02:37 PM
Thanks Harley.

Also, the Friday game is being picked up and televised locally by the CW channel 23. It's streamed on BTN2GO as well.

You're most welcome sir. Gotta love the drama surrounding this weekend...it's crunch time. :cool:

MN Magic
03-09-2015, 02:46 PM
:)

Gophers #1
03-09-2015, 07:13 PM
Friday night game is not on the main WUCW, it on WUCW GETTV 23.2 Not the main WUCW channel.
https://twitter.com/GopherPuckLive/status/575085886125309952

That right, i am screw. i don't get GETTV on directv. so i am out of luck. Unless a sports channel on my sports package pick it up.

D2D
03-09-2015, 09:18 PM
Friday night game is not on the main WUCW, it on WUCW GETTV 23.2 Not the main WUCW channel.
https://twitter.com/GopherPuckLive/status/575085886125309952

That right, i am screw. i don't get GETTV on directv. so i am out of luck. Unless a sports channel on my sports package pick it up.

More on the TV situation: http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/295652951.html

5mn_Major
03-09-2015, 10:00 PM
Net message is that if MI or MSU sweeps they win the B1G title no matter what...from what I read.

HarleyMC
03-09-2015, 10:58 PM
Net message is that if MI or MSU sweeps they win the B1G title no matter what...from what I read.

That's correct. But it's a home and home series, which means there's a chance neither will sweep. The only B1G teams Michigan has swept are the Gophers and Wisc. (twice). Sparty is the only B1G team that has not been swept by a B1G team this season. Michigan leads the series 2-1-0. Michigan's second win (4-1) was the Hockey City Classic in Chicago which was delayed for nearly two hours due to warm weather and poor ice conditions. The other games were 2-1 Michigan and 2-1 MSU both at the Joe.

After losing to MSU in January:


“It’s pretty obvious what happened,” said Michigan coach Red Berenson. “Everyone builds this game up as an offense against defense, and you know what happens: defense wins."

EDIT: This is a huge rivalry series that drew a total of over 37,000 fans at the Joe in two games.

Stauber1
03-09-2015, 11:31 PM
Net message is that if MI or MSU sweeps they win the B1G title no matter what...from what I read.

That's part of it.
The other part is, if MN sweeps and there is any sharing of points, in any combination, between MSU-MI then MN wins the league.

Harley and I are on the same page I think - both leaning toward MN taking the majority if not all of the pts this weekend, and both expecting that neither MI nor MSU will sweep.

I think MN is in the best position heading into the weekend.

But like I've said earlier in the thread, the Big 10 title doesn't mean a whole lot to me in terms of projecting how the Gophers do in the NCAA's if/when they get there. The last time MN played games against the upper echelon of the NCAA was the North Star Cup, and we all know how that turned out.

One of my grumps with the Big 10 and the way games are scheduled is that MN heads into the tournament with very few (if any) recent games against elite opponents. And I think that is a serious detriment to their chances, and will be year in and year out so long as the Big 10 remains a mediocre conference.

HarleyMC
03-10-2015, 12:07 AM
One of my grumps with the Big 10 and the way games are scheduled is that MN heads into the tournament with very few (if any) recent games against elite opponents. And I think that is a serious detriment to their chances, and will be year in and year out so long as the Big 10 remains a mediocre conference.

Couldn't agree more with the "grump".;) I looked at that the other day. All conferences generally wind down the season playing mainly other conference opponents with very few, if any NC games. I'd like to see a nationwide NCAA scheduling change to mix more NC games in the second half for two reasons: 1) There's little chance of big strides in the PWR in the second half when it counts the most if conferences (it's especially significant with weaker conferences and the B1G is most likely second only to AHA as the weakest conference) stack all their conference games at the end without mixing in any NCs against higher ranking teams and 2) As conference teams perform better and gain momentum towards playoff time, without testing their performance against other higher ranking teams the PWR representativeness and regional seeding of those teams is intrinsically confounded.

LTsatch
03-10-2015, 12:21 AM
One of my grumps with the Big 10 and the way games are scheduled is that MN heads into the tournament with very few (if any) recent games against elite opponents. And I think that is a serious detriment to their chances, and will be year in and year out so long as the Big 10 remains a mediocre conference.

I understand your scheduling gripe, but how can you complain about a mediocre conference when Minnesota is not even in first place? If they were running away with the conference, then you would have a beef. The conference as a whole is in a down year, get over it.

5mn_Major
03-10-2015, 09:24 AM
So to sum:

1) B1G Title: If MI or MSU sweep, they win the title. If not, MN wins the title by sweep.
2) First Round Bye at B1G: If MN sweeps, we get first round bye. If not, we pretty much need a MI or MSU sweep to get a first round bye (barring complicated tie scenarios).

Priceless
03-10-2015, 10:02 AM
If the Gophers can take these "409 Forever" prycks to the woodshed this weekend that would be great, mmmmmmkay

Gophers #1
03-10-2015, 05:00 PM
So to sum:

1) B1G Title: If MI or MSU sweep, they win the title. If not, MN wins the title by sweep.
2) First Round Bye at B1G: If MN sweeps, we get first round bye. If not, we pretty much need a MI or MSU sweep to get a first round bye (barring complicated tie scenarios).

For Minnesota to win the Big Ten. we need to sweep Penn State and have MSU and Michigan split. their are other ways. But this is the simple way.

HarleyMC
03-11-2015, 12:33 PM
Injury report is Penn St. top center Taylor Holstrom is out for the season. Holstrom played on Casey Bailey's line and missed the Michigan series last week with a twisted leg from the Ohio St. series the week before. Holstrom leads the Nittany Lions with 26 assists. Goodwin moved into Holstrom's center position on the line with Bailey and Tommy Olczyk (Eddie's son) skated left wing.

Gadowsky did not name a starting goalie for this weekend series, waiting a little longer to choose from Matthew Skoff, P.J. Musico or Eamon McAdam.

Connor Reilly hasn’t skated or practiced with the Gophers since being injured on Jan. 31 at Wisconsin. He will most likely not be back this season.


“It doesn’t look like Connor will be back any time soon,” Gophers coach Don Lucia said on Wednesday. “If he doesn’t skate for another week or two, you’re getting to that point where it’d be hard to get thrown in if he can’t come back until playoff time. It’s hard to be thrown into that type of situation. We were hoping that maybe he could be back within these couple weeks' time frame, especially the last weekend. But if we can’t get him back before the end of the regular season, I think it would be very difficult for him to jump back in and play at that point.”

Koho
03-11-2015, 09:24 PM
Harley and I are on the same page I think - both leaning toward MN taking the majority if not all of the pts this weekend, and both expecting that neither MI nor MSU will sweep.

I think MN is in the best position heading into the weekend.



I disagree with your contention that two games at home and being dependent on a split is a better position than a sweep winning it outright regardless of other teams, and only have to win one on the road.

(And I don't like seeing a Goph game thread on the 2nd page. Disgraceful, people!)

D2D
03-11-2015, 11:34 PM
I disagree with your contention that two games at home and being dependent on a split is a better position than a sweep winning it outright regardless of other teams, and only have to win one on the road.
I agree with you here, Koho. Bottom line is two teams each control their own destiny, but one team (the Gophers) don't. One team (Gophers) absolutely needs to sweep, but just one of two teams needs to sweep. I don't have the math skills to figure the odds of the various scenarios, even assuming all three teams having an equal chance in each of their two games, but I think it's safe to conclude that the odds are not in the Gophers' favor.

I will be in attendance both nights no matter what happens, and am still hoping for the best, but I've kind of been preparing myself to come away disappointed...again. But with this mindset, I will be pumped if things should fall the Gophers way and they do end up winning the B1G regular season title, even if barely. Then it's more of the same in a compressed B1G post-season schedule....to win both the Gophers will somehow need to continue their winning streak, the likes of which we haven't yet seen this season. On that score I am much less optimistic.


(And I don't like seeing a Goph game thread on the 2nd page. Disgraceful, people!)
Would never happen if most fans and posters here hadn't lost at least some faith - and dare I say interest - based on recent disappointing results. Over the years we Gopher fans have become used to winning. And with this year's squad the expectations were unusually high, and justifiably so. When you look at all the active threads, here on USCHO, on teams that perennially have losing records, you see fans hoping/praying for a turn-around. It makes you kind of realize how spoiled we've become. When a talent-laden team fails to meet the expectations of its fan base it's only natural that many of those fans will fall off the bandwagon, and maybe that at least partially explains why this game thread had fallen to the 2nd page.

HarleyMC
03-12-2015, 07:30 AM
I agree with you here, Koho. Bottom line is two teams each control their own destiny, but one team (the Gophers) don't. One team (Gophers) absolutely needs to sweep, but just one of two teams needs to sweep. I don't have the math skills to figure the odds of the various scenarios, even assuming all three teams having an equal chance in each of their two games, but I think it's safe to conclude that the odds are not in the Gophers' favor.

You're both incorrect in "your assumptions" for the following reasons:

1) Since 2010-11, the Michigan and Michigan State rivalry has played 5 home and home series. Michigan has won 1 and Sparty zero. The probability of Michigan State not being swept by Michigan is 2.5 times more likely than being swept by Michigan this weekend in the home and home series. Secondly, as I've already indicated a few times, MSU is the ONLY B1G team that has not been swept by a B1G team this season. Thirdly, Michigan State is currently unbeaten at home in their last 7 games (home record: 9-4-1) and Michigan is unbeaten at home in their last 9 games (home record: 12-2-0). Both teams have losing records on the road: MSU/5-8-1, Michigan/4-10-0.

The odds more than 2 to 1 that neither Michigan or Michigan State will sweep this weekend.

2) Since 2011 the Gophers (inc. this senior class) are 60-13-7 at home. This season they are 12-3-1 at home. The probability of the Gophers winning at home is 3 times more likely than losing at home. Moreover, prior to losing to MSU at home 2 weeks ago, the Gophers had a 16 game unbeaten streak at home against B1G opponents. Overall, they currently have a record of 14-1-2 against B1G opponents at home. The probability of the Gophers winning at home against a B1G opponent is 4.6 times more likely than losing to a B1G opponent.

For added incentive, this weekend is the last series for one of the most successful senior classes in recent memory: Seth Ambroz, Travis Boyd, Christian Isackson, Ben Marshall, Kyle Rau and Sam Warning. The Gophers are 80-15-8 all-time when Rau scores a point and 39-4-0 when he logs multiple points in a game. A second-straight Big Ten title this weekend would make the senior class the only group to win regular season titles in all four years at Minnesota.

Based upon this season's home record, odds are 3 to 1 in favor of the Gophers sweeping at home this weekend.


Then it's more of the same in a compressed B1G post-season schedule....to win both the Gophers will somehow need to continue their winning streak, the likes of which we haven't yet seen this season. On that score I am much less optimistic.

Incorrect. From Feb. 5th-20th the Gophers had a five game winning streak. A six game winning streak starting this weekend puts the Gophers on a plane to Boston for the NCAA Frozen Four semifinal game.


Would never happen if most fans and posters here hadn't lost at least some faith - and dare I say interest - based on recent disappointing results.

If you are referring to 2 road losses and MSU breaking their 14 game winning streak against B1G teams at home in the last 6 games that's far too negative and emotional. They're 8-3-1 in their last 12 compared to 8-2-2 last season going into the final series. So where's the disappointment?:D


It makes you kind of realize how spoiled we've become. When a talent-laden team fails to meet the expectations of its fan base it's only natural that many of those fans will fall off the bandwagon, and maybe that at least partially explains why this game thread had fallen to the 2nd page.

Funny...what you just described is the definition of a "fairweather fan". A fairweather fan tends to root for their team when it's doing well, and ignores that team if it starts to fail. People sometimes refer to fairweather fans as “bandwagoners,” referencing the idea that they “jump on the bandwagon” of a team which is doing well and jump off when the team is doing poorly or not meeting fan expectations. As a general rule, fairweather fans are heavily criticized by people who regard themselves a loyal fans who stick with a team through bad times as well as good ones.

D2D
03-12-2015, 09:18 AM
HarleyMC, I've had season tickets every year dating back to 1972, when I was fresh out of college, so I obviously don't fit your definition of a "fairweather fan". And obviously I have never been one to jump on and off the bandwagon. I've stuck with them in good times and not-so-good times. That said, having attended every home game but one this season, I do not share your optimism about this Gopher team's post-season chances. But by no means have I lost hope! I'll be there again this weekend, cheering them on.