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Priceless
12-31-2014, 09:11 PM
First, a little history. Thanks to the (now-defunct) Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 12 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 22 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 170 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 170 teams, 122 (71.8%) that qualified as of the January 1 PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 42 of the 48 (88%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the January 1 PWR have made the tournament. 37 of the 48 (77%) of teams ranked 5-8 made it. 27 of the 48 (56%) of teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2011 all of the top 12 teams in the January 1 PWR qualified. Ohio State is the only #1 team (2012) to fall all the way out of the tournament. If your team doesn't appear below, take heart. In five of the last eight years teams that were not in the top 25 of the PWR on January 1 earned at-large berths in the tournament. Two years ago Wisconsin was ranked #42 in the RPI (unranked by pairwise) and rose to the #14 overall seed. Three years ago Union was ranked #25 and came all the way back to win the ECAC, get a #1 seed and advance to the Frozen Four. Last year #24 Colgate was the lowest team to earn an at-large berth.

38 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. Colorado College and Dartmouth have the distinction, not only of falling out of the tournament four times but, being #1 seeds that fell out of the tournament. Last year, all teams seeded 9-12 fell out of the eventual field.

A few of the rules to help clarify things.

1) All teams that qualify for at-large berths must have a .500 record or better (Wisconsin rule) to receive an invitation to the tournament.
2) Host teams MUST be placed in the regional they are hosting.
3) #1 seeds are placed are placed in the closest regional (except when noted below)
4) There are no intraconference games allowed in the first round (like Harvard-Yale) UNLESS there are five or more teams from that conference in the tournament. Given the history, the NCAA tries to avoid all intraconference match ups if possible, regardless of how many teams from one conference there are.
5) The NCAA has a rule that any team that is not 400 miles from the regional location must fly to said regional. They have a Wernher von Braun approach to flights: "Once the planes go up, who cares where they come down?" In NCAA parlance, a flight is a flight (if anyone successfully negotiates this with an airline, please let me know!) For schools like Denver and UNO, that means they can go to any regional.
6) Teams are banded 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 and 13-16. Teams can be placed anywhere within the band but cannot under any circumstance switch bands. If North Dakota finishes #8 in the pairwise, they cannot be a #3 seed. However, the NCAA would prefer to follow the 1-16/8-9 etc pairing as much as possible.
7) All bracketology pretends the season ends TODAY. It is not an estimation of where teams will end up. My bracketology is also an approximation of what I think the committee would do - not necessarily what I would do.
8) There are no right answers. We are all guessing. We don't know exactly what the committee will do until Selection Sunday. There may be additional rules that I have not published here and I often go by precedent. However, not all things are known.

One note before we begin: The data is stored on another hard drive which is inaccessible to me at the moment. That will make this difficult, but not impossible.

And finally, I hope everyone bears in mind rule #8 and we can keep this friendly. There are bound to be disagreements and some fans just can't play well together (looking at you, UND and Gopher fans! ;)) but there is no reason for this thread to devolve into a flamewar!

And now, without further ado, here are the official pairwise as of January 1:

1 Minnesota State
2 Harvard
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Boston University
5 Minnesota
6 Bowling Green
7 Michigan Tech
8 Vermont
9 Miami
10 Nebraska-Omaha
11 North Dakota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell
13 Providence
14 Merrimack
15 Yale
16 Denver
---
17 Quinnipiac
18 Colgate
19 Dartmouth
20 Michigan
21 Robert Morris
22t Boston College
22t Alaska
24t Penn State
24t Union
26 St. Cloud State
27 Mercyhurst
28 St. Lawrence
29t Northern Michigan
29t Clarkson
31t Notre Dame
31t Cornell
31t Connecticut
34t Ohio State
34t Western Michigan
36t Northeastern
36t Bemidji State
38 Holy Cross
39 Bentley
40 Ferris State
41 Rensselaer
42t New Hampshire
42t Michigan State
44 Alaska-Anchorage
45t Canisius
45t Massachusetts
45t Colorado College
48 Brown
49t Alabama-Huntsville
49t RIT
51 Sacred Heart
52 Princeton
53 Air Force
54t Lake Superior
54t Maine
56 Army
57 Wisconsin
58 American International
59 Niagara


We seed the top AHA team 16th to simulate the autobid which gives us a field of:

Minnesota State
Harvard
Minnesota-Duluth
Boston University
Minnesota
Bowling Green
Michigan Tech
Vermont
Miami
Nebraska-Omaha
North Dakota
Massachusetts-Lowell
Providence
Merrimack
Yale
Robert Morris


Western Regional - Fargo, ND (Host: North Dakota)

#1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
Vermont vs Miami

Midwest Regional - South Bend, IN (Host: Notre Dame)
#3 Duluth vs Merrimack
Bowling Green vs North Dakota

East Regional - Providence, RI (Host: Brown)
#4 Boston U vs Providence
Minnesota vs Lowell

Northeast Regional - Manchester, NH (Host: New Hampshire)
#2 Harvard vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha

We have a few issues.
First, we must seed North Dakota in the west regional because they are the host. Second, we have multiple first round games that cannot happen.

So we fix this:

Fargo
#1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
Vermont vs North Dakota

South Bend
#3 Duluth vs Merrimack
Bowling Green vs Miami

Providence
#4 Boston U vs Yale
Minnesota vs Lowell

Manchester
#2 Harvard vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha

This looks good, but we can make it better by switching the Manchester and Providence regionals. BU and Harvard are practically neighbors so Providence and Manchester are equidistant for both schools. That gives us a final bracketology of:


Manchester Providence South Bend Fargo
Boston U Harvard Duluth Mankato
Minnesota Michigan Tech Bowling Green Vermont
Lowell Neb-Omaha Miami North Dakota
Yale Providence Merrimack Robert Morris

Priceless
12-31-2014, 09:17 PM
A little more history:
Boston College, Maine, Wisconsin and Michigan are not in the field as of today. The last time one of those four schools did not make the tournament was 1980.
This would mark the first NCAA berth for Bowling Green since 1990; the first for Michigan Tech since 1981.
Yale is currently #15 overall. When the Bulldogs won the title in 2013 they were also #15 overall.

mookie1995
12-31-2014, 10:38 PM
uh thanks, but mookie would rather be in providence for a weekend than manchvegas.

Priceless
12-31-2014, 10:46 PM
uh thanks, but mookie would rather be in providence for a weekend than manchvegas.

I'll check, but I don't think there's anything in the rules about asking mookie's opinion :p

mookie1995
12-31-2014, 11:12 PM
well, should be

The Zlax45
12-31-2014, 11:21 PM
Manchester isn't terrible

Middle Street
01-01-2015, 12:17 AM
Manchester isn't terrible

Agreed. Worcester is by far the worst.

manurespreader
01-01-2015, 07:40 AM
Agreed. Worcester is by far the worst.

I like Wooster, I mean Worcester.... Maybe HC should host next time.I mean their rink is big enough :)
And Albany has to be the worst, Or Cincinnati.

mookie1995
01-01-2015, 07:59 AM
Manchester isn't terrible

mookie picked apples over oranges. that's all.

worcester has a cigar bar right across the street from the centrum, that's carries a lot of weight to the + side.

Priceless
01-01-2015, 08:31 AM
I like Wooster, I mean Worcester.... Maybe HC should host next time.I mean their rink is big enough :)
And Albany has to be the worst, Or Cincinnati.

They are hosting next year - at the DCU Center. Also, Miami is hosting in Cincinnati. Oh, and the ECAC is hosting in Albany. So there you go. :)

Biddco
01-01-2015, 08:48 AM
I assume your stats are kept since they increased the teams to 16? What was the system before that? Have they always used the PWR?

Crimson on the Glass
01-01-2015, 09:00 AM
uh thanks, but mookie would rather be in providence for a weekend than manchvegas.
Yes, and I'd prefer Manchester. Am I correct in thinking there is no meaningful reason why BU/Harvard would be assigned to Manchester/Providence or vice versa?

Priceless
01-01-2015, 09:08 AM
I assume your stats are kept since they increased the teams to 16? What was the system before that? Have they always used the PWR?

Yes, these stats are since the tournament expanded to 16 in 2003. From 1992-02 they had 12 teams at a neutral site, with the top 2 teams in the east and west receiving byes. They used pairwise with some exceptions. If a team won both the Hockey East, ECAC, WCHA or CCHA regular season and tournament titles, they automatically received a bye even if they were ranked behind another team. See: Clarkson in 1999. They were much more regimented in seeding 1-6 in each region and crossed over the #5 and #6 seeds so #3 East would play #6 West and so on. They played the first night, then would play one of the teams that received a bye the next day.

From 1989-1991 there were 12 teams, but they played best two of three in each round at the higher seed. From 1981-1987 the tournament was 8 teams, two games/total goals format. The tournament expanded to 12 teams in 1988 and the same format used. From 1948-1976 it was just the Frozen Four. From 1977-1981 it expanded to 6 teams playing a single elimination format.

Priceless
01-01-2015, 09:09 AM
Yes, and I'd prefer Manchester. Am I correct in thinking there is no meaningful reason why BU/Harvard would be assigned to Manchester/Providence or vice versa?

I am working under the assumption that for NCAA purposes, Harvard and BU are essentially equidistant from both regionals and therefore interchangeable.

BUPhD
01-01-2015, 09:17 AM
Happy new year to you too, Priceless! The annual 'simple math' thread is always a good one.

mookie1995
01-01-2015, 12:58 PM
I am working under the assumption that for NCAA purposes, Harvard and BU are essentially equidistant from both regionals and therefore interchangeable.

harvard IS north of bu, so one would be closer to providence & the other be closer to manchvegas :D

Priceless
01-01-2015, 04:15 PM
harvard IS north of bu, so one would be closer to providence & the other be closer to manchvegas :D

Harvard is 52.5 miles from the Verizon Wireless Center and 54.7 miles from the Dunkin' Donuts Center.
BU is 6.2 miles closer to the Dunkin' Donuts Center than to Verizon.
Like I said, it really doesn't matter to which regional they go.

MaizeRage
01-01-2015, 04:34 PM
Harvard is 52.5 miles from the Verizon Wireless Center and 54.7 miles from the Dunkin' Donuts Center.
BU is 6.2 miles closer to the Dunkin' Donuts Center than to Verizon.
Like I said, it really doesn't matter to which regional they go.

Speaking of regional changes, I know the bracket will change 1000 times before now and the end of the year, but using the current set-up, I could see switching MSU/RMU to South Bend and UMD/Merrimack to Fargo. It doesn't change bracket integrity all that much since the 2/3 match-ups are already mussed.

MSU would have to fly rather than UMD flying(technically MSU has bussed that trip before, but it's more than 500 miles), but at least the top overall seed gets a neutral site game rather than potentially being the road team to a lower-ranked team. Robert Morris also moves inside the 500-mile bus radius, so it's a net reduction of travel expenses.

darker98
01-01-2015, 04:42 PM
Speaking of regional changes, I know the bracket will change 1000 times before now and the end of the year, but using the current set-up, I could see switching MSU/RMU to South Bend and UMD/Merrimack to Fargo. It doesn't change bracket integrity all that much since the 2/3 match-ups are already mussed.

MSU would have to fly rather than UMD flying(technically MSU has bussed that trip before, but it's more than 500 miles), but at least the top overall seed gets a neutral site game rather than potentially being the road team to a lower-ranked team. Robert Morris also moves inside the 500-mile bus radius, so it's a net reduction of travel expenses.

MSU is the #1 overall. It's only a 3 hour bus ride to Fargo.

MaizeRage
01-01-2015, 04:45 PM
MSU is the #1 overall. It's only a 3 hour bus ride to Fargo.

Yes, but given the choice, I'm sure they'd trade a few extra hours on a bus or spending the money on a plane to play at a neutral site over potentially playing a road game.