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The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

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  • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

    Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
    After the first round of games have finished... Yale is still alive and their outlook is actually unchanged (about 5% of scenarios get them in). BC seems a lock, SCSU seems a lock, BG is in much worse shape, Minnesota in much better shape.
    are you going to post a new projection tonight?
    Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

    Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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    • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

      Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
      are you going to post a new projection tonight?
      I'll probably put together a summary of where we are after tonight's games are done/before going to bed, then if there's anything still unclear a forecast in the morning. So far, though, this is the most straightforward season in memory. Could all be pretty obvious tonight. I've mostly been posting real-time updates on Twitter https://***********/chranked

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      • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

        In general, for those using the predictor, I have found what I believe are strange and bad results by not going "Start Over" to try a new scenario.

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        • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

          Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
          I'll probably put together a summary of where we are after tonight's games are done/before going to bed, then if there's anything still unclear a forecast in the morning. So far, though, this is the most straightforward season in memory. Could all be pretty obvious tonight. I've mostly been posting real-time updates on Twitter https://***********/chranked
          You're the man.

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          • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

            Can someone help me? I am playing with Minnesota scenarios. Right now, Mankato leads Ferris State 3-0. Assuming that holds, I am getting Minnesota is a lock. Is that right?

            Reasoning.... How many from each conference can pass them?
            AHA - 1 (only the champ)
            B10 - 1 (Michigan by winning. Doesn't really pass them, but takes a spot)
            ECAC - 2 (Champion plus Quinn in certain scenarios)
            HEA - 3 (BU, BC, and either Lowell or UNH. I can't get Providence that high, unless I glitch the Predictor by not doing a total Start Over)
            NCHC - 6 no matter what
            WCHA - 2 if Mankato wins - namely MSUM and MTU.

            Add those up and you get Minny 16th, COUNTING the auto bids.

            Can anyone get them out if Mankato wins tonight?

            Thanks.

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            • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

              Originally posted by Numbers View Post
              Can someone help me? I am playing with Minnesota scenarios. Right now, Mankato leads Ferris State 3-0. Assuming that holds, I am getting Minnesota is a lock. Is that right?

              Reasoning.... How many from each conference can pass them?
              AHA - 1 (only the champ)
              B10 - 1 (Michigan by winning. Doesn't really pass them, but takes a spot)
              ECAC - 2 (Champion plus Quinn in certain scenarios)
              HEA - 3 (BU, BC, and either Lowell or UNH. I can't get Providence that high, unless I glitch the Predictor by not doing a total Start Over)
              NCHC - 6 no matter what
              WCHA - 2 if Mankato wins - namely MSUM and MTU.

              Add those up and you get Minny 16th, COUNTING the auto bids.

              Can anyone get them out if Mankato wins tonight?

              Thanks.
              i know Jim had them at in on 97% possibilities with a loss to Michigan tomorrow before the MSU win goes final.
              Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

              Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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              • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                Can someone help me? I am playing with Minnesota scenarios. Right now, Mankato leads Ferris State 3-0. Assuming that holds, I am getting Minnesota is a lock. Is that right?
                Close. A Mankato win gets them in 97% of the time. So, there's more than one niche branch to get them out. If that stays true at the end of the night I'll try to fine them.
                Last edited by JimDahl; 03-20-2015, 09:46 PM.

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                • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                  Thanks. Since the NCHC 3rd place had 3 results, that probably means there are 2 scenarios, plus the NCHC game. Oh. And the NCHC final shouldn't matter either, so that leaves 1.

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                  • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                    Pretty sure I found the MN out scenario on my second try...

                    Atlantic Hockey
                    Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Canisius
                    Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats RIT
                    Big Ten
                    Championship game: Michigan defeats Minnesota
                    ECAC
                    Championship game: Colgate defeats Harvard
                    Hockey East
                    Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston University
                    NCHC
                    Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Denver
                    Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Denver
                    Championship game: Miami defeats St. Cloud State
                    WCHA
                    Championship game: Minnesota State defeats Michigan Tech


                    Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi...#ixzz3UzAGYFy8

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                    • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                      If all higher seeds win tomorrow:

                      Fargo
                      #2 North Dakota vs RIT
                      Omaha vs Minnesota

                      South Bend
                      #3 Miami vs Harvard
                      Michigan Tech vs St Cloud

                      Providence
                      #1 Mankato vs Providence
                      Denver vs Colgate

                      Manchester
                      #4 Boston U vs Quinnipiac
                      Duluth vs Boston C

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                      • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                        With only RIT/Canisius left, I'm taking a break. Here's my last tweet on the subject:

                        Nothing else will be decided by RIT/Can tonight. BG 2%, MN 97% if loss, Prov 50%, Harv 53% if win, Yale up to 20%

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                        • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                          It would be a shame to see UMass-Lowell miss the tourney. I think that they are built for a deep run if they make it.

                          I know that PWR involves a lot of number crunching but I look at some of the mediocre records and wonder how a team like UML at 21-12-6 would be out while 19-18-1 St. Cloud would be in.

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                          • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                            Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                            If all higher seeds win tomorrow:

                            Fargo
                            #2 North Dakota vs RIT
                            Omaha vs Minnesota

                            South Bend
                            #3 Miami vs Harvard
                            Michigan Tech vs St Cloud

                            Providence
                            #1 Mankato vs Providence
                            Denver vs Colgate

                            Manchester
                            #4 Boston U vs Quinnipiac
                            Duluth vs Boston C
                            I categorically reject this reality
                            BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                            Jerseys I would like to have:
                            Skating Friar Jersey
                            AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                            UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                            Army Black Knight logo jersey


                            NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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                            • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                              Originally posted by umhockey91 View Post
                              It would be a shame to see UMass-Lowell miss the tourney. I think that they are built for a deep run if they make it.

                              I know that PWR involves a lot of number crunching but I look at some of the mediocre records and wonder how a team like UML at 21-12-6 would be out while 19-18-1 St. Cloud would be in.
                              we dropped the ball mid-season, and HEA dropped the ball in non-conf.
                              BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                              Jerseys I would like to have:
                              Skating Friar Jersey
                              AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                              UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                              Army Black Knight logo jersey


                              NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                              Comment


                              • Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                                How's this for awkward: Yale has to hope Harvard wins tomorrow night.

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