The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

[MN Magic]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

[Red Cows]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Obviously this will change in the next two weeks, but I believe we have our first Bracketology that does not need to be tweaked.

Fargo
1 North Dakota vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Denver vs 9 Providence

South Bend
2 MN Mankato vs 15 Michigan
10 Boston College vs 7 Michigan Tech

Providence
4 Miami vs 13 Yale
5 Nebraska Omaha vs 12 Quinnipiac

Manchester
3 MN Duluth vs 14 Bowling Green
6 Boston University vs 11 Minnesota

Here's what Chris Dilks of SB Nation has come up with, that is quite different from your scenario:

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2015...logy-march-1st

[Priceless]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

The March 1 pairwise
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Miami
5 Nebraska-Omaha
6 Boston University
7 Michigan Tech
8 Denver
9 Providence
10 Boston College
11 Minnesota
12t Quinnipiac
12t Yale
14 Bowling Green
15t Michigan
15t Massachusetts-Lowell
17 St. Cloud State
18 Colgate
19t Vermont
19t Northeastern
21 St. Lawrence
22 Harvard
23 Bemidji State
24 Dartmouth
25 Robert Morris
26 Alaska
27t Western Michigan
27t Penn State
29 Northern Michigan
30t New Hampshire
30t Notre Dame
32 Michigan State
33t Cornell
33t Merrimack
33t Union
36 Ferris State
37 Ohio State
38 Connecticut
39 Bentley
40t Canisius
40t Clarkson
42t Mercyhurst
42t Maine
44 RIT
45 Massachusetts
46 Brown
47 Holy Cross
48 Rensselaer
49 Colorado College
50t Air Force
50t Sacred Heart
50t Alaska-Anchorage
53 Alabama-Huntsville
54 Lake Superior
55 Wisconsin
56 Princeton
57 Army
58 American International
59 Niagara

There have now been 170 teams that have been ranked high enough to qualify for an NCAA invite without relying on an autobid to make the field. 155 (91.2%) have been in playoff position on March 1. No team in the top seven at this point in the season has ever fallen out of the field. Only Denver in 2007 and Mankato in 2008 have fallen out of the top 11. The state of Michigan continued a very bad trend as Michigan joined Western Michigan (2013), Northern Michigan (2012) and Michigan State (2010) - along with Duluth (2008) and Dartmouth (2005) - as 12-seeds who have missed the tournament. Overall, 41 of the 48 (85.4%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.

The teams don't HAVE to be moved, but to help attendance and reduce flights they would be.

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Minnesota

South Bend
#4 Miami vs Michigan
Omaha vs Boston C

Manchester
#3 Duluth vs Bowling Green
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

Providence
#2 Mankato vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs Providence

[Terrier520]

Here's what Chris Dilks of SB Nation has come up with, that is quite different from your scenario:

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2015...logy-march-1st

That differs from what the committee has done in the last. Bracket integrity has always been of utmost importance.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

The March 1 pairwise
1 North Dakota
2 Minnesota State
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Miami
5 Nebraska-Omaha
6 Boston University
7 Michigan Tech
8 Denver
9 Providence
10 Boston College
11 Minnesota
12t Quinnipiac
12t Yale
14 Bowling Green
15t Michigan

"snip"

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Minnesota

South Bend
#4 Miami vs Michigan
Omaha vs Boston C

Manchester
#3 Duluth vs Bowling Green
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

Providence
#2 Mankato vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs Providence

This bracket makes sense in lots of ways.

1) Miami plays at South Bend because Mankato and Duluth have to fly anyway.
2) Michigan plays at South Bend because it's close to Ann Arbor, and will bring fans to the games.
3) Once Michigan goes to South Bend, all the 1 v 4 games fall where they 'have to' go.

4) Priceless put the #2 seeds in the normal serpentine arrangement. No way to to better, unless you assume that Michigan Tech would travel well, and should therefore go to Fargo or South Bend. Both of those are long drives. Denver in Fargo makes a certain amount of sense. So, the #2s seem easy enough.

5) The #3s. First, Minnesota at Fargo saves a flight. Plus, what a region!!!
6) Once that happens, BU has to play Quinnipiac, to avoid BC or Prov.
7) Omaha gets the lower seed of BC/Prov, and Prov plays close to home. This is perhaps the only nit to pick. BC would probably bring more fans to Providence than Providence (at least that's what one poster from the east said).

[The Rube]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I'd love MN and UND to be in the same bracket. /oldschool
I don't want MTU and MSU to be in the same bracket, but I'll bet it happens if things remain the same/similar.

[mookie1995]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Another F4 for bc with that bracket

[bigblue_dl]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

It looks like it is shaping up so I should root for Tech to be in the 3-6 range, and avoid 7-10. For the best chance at missing MSU and UND in regionals.

[LynahFan]

ECAC: Only Quinnipiac is in the top 12 at the moment, and just barely so. Yale would likely move up into the top 12 with winning the ECAC Tournament, but Harvard might not. It would be tight. As you mentioned, Colgate and St. Lawrence are both good possibilities of winning the tournament. However, they would also have an opportunity to jump up into the top 12 if they did so. My guess on chance of ECAC autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 40%

Per the KRACH-based Monte Carlo that lugnut92 does for the ECAC predictions thread, Q has a 31.8% chance of winning, so the field is actually up at 68.2%. Of course, a couple of those in the field could make it to the top 12 by winning, so those scenarios would not "count" so your 40% is probably not a terrible guess.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

This bracket makes sense in lots of ways.

1) Miami plays at South Bend because Mankato and Duluth have to fly anyway.
2) Michigan plays at South Bend because it's close to Ann Arbor, and will bring fans to the games.
3) Once Michigan goes to South Bend, all the 1 v 4 games fall where they 'have to' go.

4) Priceless put the #2 seeds in the normal serpentine arrangement. No way to to better, unless you assume that Michigan Tech would travel well, and should therefore go to Fargo or South Bend. Both of those are long drives. Denver in Fargo makes a certain amount of sense. So, the #2s seem easy enough.

5) The #3s. First, Minnesota at Fargo saves a flight. Plus, what a region!!!
6) Once that happens, BU has to play Quinnipiac, to avoid BC or Prov.
7) Omaha gets the lower seed of BC/Prov, and Prov plays close to home. This is perhaps the only nit to pick. BC would probably bring more fans to Providence than Providence (at least that's what one poster from the east said).

Pretty much my thinking exactly! I had BC and Providence switched but I went with this version because while the tickets are sold in South Bend that doesn't mean fannies in the seats. I calculate that people in South Bend are more likely to go to cheer AGAINST Michigan and BC since they're used to it. Providence doesn't have that cache. I also figure this will be a good test of whether the Friars can carry a region fan-wise because there will be no excuse for their fans not to show up. The NCAA needs to find a viable fan base in the east with the loss of both the Maine and New Hampshire bases that could be counted on to carry their regions. If the committee is that concerned about PC's ability to sell tickets (and deem that a mitigating factor) they may very well flip BC and PC since tickets in South Bend are already sold whether people show up or not.

[FiveHole12]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Another F4 for bc with that bracket

Here's to hoping BU regains a #1. Doesn't get better than a BC/BU match up in the Regional.
I have no worries. Go Terriers... make it happen.

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I calculate that people in South Bend are more likely to go to cheer AGAINST Michigan and BC since they're used to it.

I don't get the sense that the ND "hockey fans" would be ones to attend a game or games where their team isn't playing. Based on my trips out there, they also don't seem to be bitter people that would show up to root against other rival schools. Let's face it, the majority of the folks already inhabiting their arena during their season don't know what icing is and want Lou Holtz to take over for Jeff Jackson.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I also figure this will be a good test of whether the Friars can carry a region fan-wise because there will be no excuse for their fans not to show up. The NCAA needs to find a viable fan base in the east with the loss of both the Maine and New Hampshire bases that could be counted on to carry their regions. If the committee is that concerned about PC's ability to sell tickets (and deem that a mitigating factor) they may very well flip BC and PC since tickets in South Bend are already sold whether people show up or not.

Priceless,
Can you elaborate on the loss on UNH and Maine fan-bases. I am assuming you mean since they are not in this year's tourney (at least pending HEA upset). But then I thought perhaps you meant something had changed generally, and, going forward, it is not going to possible to count on them any more. Has something changed with UNH and Maine fans generally?

Thanks

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Has something changed with UNH and Maine fans generally?

The teams they follow no longer win and cheat, respectively, enough from October through March to be counted on to attend regionals.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless,
Can you elaborate on the loss on UNH and Maine fan-bases. I am assuming you mean since they are not in this year's tourney (at least pending HEA upset). But then I thought perhaps you meant something had changed generally, and, going forward, it is not going to possible to count on them any more. Has something changed with UNH and Maine fans generally?

Thanks

Neither team is projected to make the field and their fans cannot be relied upon to purchase the majority of tickets at regionals. The NCAA needs another fan base because frankly BC and BU don't cut it. Lowell has a chance to help attendance, if they are good enough to make the tournament. We'll see if Providence can step up and fill the seats. One would hope with their repeated appearances, Quinnipiac and Yale might develop a following as well.