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lugnut92
10-30-2014, 04:30 PM
The ECAC schedule gets underway this weekend with a trio of games (two between RPI and Union and the first Dartmouth-Harvard game), so it's once again time for piles of numbers spit out by a program! I've abandoned the original projected standings in favor of the Monte Carlo simulation that was introduced last year (partially because it accounts for ties a bit better, partially because it's easier). Unlike previous years, the ECAC schedule starts before any of the Ivies have played a real game, so we have to pretend that they're all a healthy 0-0-1 against a perfectly average team for now.

Anyway, here are your first simulated final standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1062.98 possibilities):

Union
Colgate
Clarkson
Harvard
Yale
Cornell
Dartmouth
Princeton
Brown
—————
—————
Quinnipiac
SLU
RPI


(The Ivies are all essentially tied for fourth, but the list function doesn't care about that)

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Hard to pull anything away from rankings this early, we can probably expect Union (and maybe Colgate) to be a bye team and RPI and SLU to be in a fight for home ice.

Rank and Points breakdown:


| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un | 453.6 | 55.9 36.8 5.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 1.55 | 33.98
Cg | 391.2 | 41.7 46.9 7.6 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 1.76 | 33.03
Ck | 107.9 | 0.5 2.9 14.3 14.3 13.5 12.6 11.5 10.4 8.8 6.7 3.4 1.1 | 6.10 | 22.28
Ha | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.6 12.7 12.4 12.1 11.4 10.4 8.5 4.4 1.6 | 6.49 | 21.59
Ya | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.6 10.5 8.4 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.58
Cr | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.5 10.4 8.5 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.58
Da | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.5 10.4 8.4 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.59
Pr | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.7 12.5 12.2 11.4 10.4 8.4 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.58
Br | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.5 10.5 8.5 4.5 1.6 | 6.51 | 21.58
Qu | 76.0 | 0.1 0.6 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.5 11.1 13.0 14.9 16.4 11.0 5.1 | 7.98 | 19.02
SL | 40.9 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.6 7.9 14.6 31.3 35.7 | 10.62 | 13.62
RP | 35.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.7 11.6 27.5 48.6 | 10.99 | 12.58

| KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un | 453.6 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.4 9.2 10.6 11.5 11.3 10.4 8.6 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 | 33.98
Cg | 391.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.9 10.3 11.1 11.0 10.1 8.6 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 | 33.03
Ck | 107.9 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 8.2 9.1 9.5 9.4 8.8 7.8 6.5 5.1 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 22.28
Ha | 100.0 | x x 0.0 x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.3 6.7 7.8 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 21.59
Ya | 100.0 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.6 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 21.58
Cr | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.7 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x | 21.58
Da | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.2 6.6 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.2 6.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 21.59
Pr | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.3 6.6 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.5 8.9 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 21.58
Br | 100.0 | x x 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.3 6.7 7.9 8.8 9.5 9.4 9.0 8.0 6.9 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x | 21.58
Qu | 76.0 | 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 4.7 6.1 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.3 8.5 7.4 6.0 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x | 19.02
SL | 40.9 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.4 7.1 8.5 9.7 10.1 10.1 9.3 8.2 6.8 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x | 13.62
RP | 35.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.8 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.5 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x | 12.58

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Sorry about how wide that is. It'll obviously get pared down as the season progresses.

lugnut92
11-02-2014, 05:51 PM
Well, three games are in the books and they went pretty well, if I do say so myself. It’s obviously still very early, so don’t put too much stock in these.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1061.55 possibilities):

Brown
Colgate
Yale
RPI
—————
Union
Cornell
Harvard
Dartmouth
—————
Quinnipiac
Princeton
SLU
Clarkson


Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a hypothetical tie against a perfectly “average” team to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Br | 241.3 | 40.6 24.7 14.4 8.4 5.0 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 | 2.41 | 29.62
Cg | 216.6 | 30.6 25.5 16.5 10.3 6.6 4.3 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 | 2.80 | 28.67
Ya | 170.2 | 14.9 18.8 18.7 14.2 10.6 7.9 5.7 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 | 3.88 | 26.46
RP | 98.7 | 4.4 8.5 12.3 14.2 13.8 12.4 10.7 8.8 6.8 4.7 2.6 1.0 | 5.51 | 23.50
Un | 145.5 | 2.8 6.1 9.5 12.1 13.3 13.2 12.1 10.6 8.6 6.4 3.7 1.5 | 6.08 | 22.63
Cr | 100.3 | 1.8 4.1 6.8 9.1 10.6 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.5 9.8 6.8 3.5 | 6.91 | 21.33
Ha | 100.0 | 1.6 3.8 6.5 9.0 10.7 11.9 12.5 12.5 11.6 9.9 6.7 3.3 | 6.95 | 21.29
Da | 100.0 | 1.6 3.9 6.5 9.0 10.7 11.9 12.5 12.5 11.7 9.8 6.6 3.3 | 6.93 | 21.29
Qu | 91.3 | 1.1 2.8 5.0 7.3 9.1 10.6 11.9 12.8 13.0 12.2 9.1 5.2 | 7.46 | 20.41
Pr | 79.7 | 0.5 1.5 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.4 12.4 14.3 15.5 13.3 8.9 | 8.25 | 19.08
SL | 51.4 | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.9 6.1 9.5 14.9 25.2 34.9 | 10.35 | 15.01
Ck | 49.7 | 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.5 5.6 8.9 14.4 24.9 38.0 | 10.47 | 14.73

| KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Br | 241.3 | x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.6 5.0 6.4 7.8 8.9 9.7 9.8 9.6 8.6 7.3 5.9 4.3 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 29.62
Cg | 216.6 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.6 4.9 6.3 7.6 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.4 8.7 7.4 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 28.67
Ya | 170.2 | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.9 4.0 5.3 6.6 7.9 8.8 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.1 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 26.46
RP | 98.7 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.9 8.1 9.1 9.6 9.7 9.1 8.1 6.8 5.4 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 23.50
Un | 145.5 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.9 9.0 9.7 9.8 9.4 8.4 7.2 5.6 4.2 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x | 22.63
Cr | 100.3 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.3 5.7 7.0 8.0 8.9 9.2 9.2 8.6 7.7 6.4 5.2 3.9 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 21.33
Ha | 100.0 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.1 9.5 9.4 8.8 7.7 6.4 5.1 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 21.29
Da | 100.0 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 8.2 9.1 9.5 9.3 8.8 7.7 6.4 5.1 3.8 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 21.29
Qu | 91.3 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.6 6.9 8.0 8.9 9.3 9.2 8.7 7.7 6.5 5.2 4.0 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x | 20.41
Pr | 79.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.7 6.1 7.4 8.4 9.2 9.4 9.1 8.4 7.4 6.0 4.8 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x | 19.08
SL | 51.4 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.8 6.4 7.8 8.9 9.7 9.7 9.4 8.4 7.3 5.8 4.5 3.3 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x x x x x | 15.01
Ck | 49.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.3 6.8 8.2 9.3 9.8 9.7 9.2 8.2 6.8 5.4 4.1 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x | 14.73

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

kdiff77
11-03-2014, 03:54 PM
I like this simulator...for now. :)

lugnut92
11-03-2014, 04:55 PM
I like this simulator...for now. :)

Me too.

RPI has a bye? Check.
RPI higher than Union and Clarkson? Check.
Clarkson in the basement? Check.

Not saying things couldn't be better (RPI #1, Union and Clarkson duking it out for the anti-Cleary), but I wouldn't be too upset if this were how it all ended.

ColSkate65
11-05-2014, 11:13 AM
Thanks for the note on our thread lugnut. My goal in life is to have the math skills you have :)

Everything looks fine, except Colgate should be in first :)

lugnut92
11-09-2014, 05:06 PM
A full twelve-game slate puts the ECAC schedule in full swing. It’s still early, but some teams would certainly rather things gone a bit differently.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1055.82 possibilities):

Quinnipiac
Harvard
Colgate
SLU
—————
RPI
Dartmouth
Clarkson
Yale
—————
Princeton
Union
Brown
Cornell


Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a hypothetical tie against a perfectly “average” team to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 174.1 | 36.3 21.9 14.7 9.9 6.7 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 2.71 | 29.04
Ha | 164.8 | 20.9 20.3 17.5 13.5 10.0 7.1 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 | 3.45 | 27.41
Cg | 176.2 | 19.9 20.5 17.1 13.4 10.0 7.4 5.2 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 | 3.53 | 27.32
SL | 114.4 | 9.6 12.5 13.9 14.2 13.1 11.4 9.4 7.2 4.9 2.8 0.9 0.2 | 4.74 | 25.11
RP | 89.9 | 4.0 7.2 10.1 12.7 14.0 14.1 12.9 10.8 7.7 4.4 1.6 0.4 | 5.66 | 23.56
Da | 109.4 | 3.6 6.4 9.1 11.4 13.1 13.7 13.2 11.7 9.1 5.8 2.3 0.6 | 5.95 | 23.13
Ck | 98.5 | 3.4 5.9 8.3 10.3 12.0 13.1 13.2 12.5 10.5 7.2 2.8 0.7 | 6.19 | 22.76
Ya | 99.8 | 1.4 3.1 5.0 7.2 9.5 11.7 13.5 14.8 14.3 11.7 5.8 1.9 | 7.15 | 21.24
Pr | 72.6 | 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.6 7.9 10.8 14.1 17.9 20.0 11.6 4.3 | 8.30 | 19.17
Un | 97.0 | 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.2 5.2 7.8 11.0 14.9 18.9 19.9 11.5 4.5 | 8.39 | 19.12
Br | 46.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 7.2 14.9 33.7 37.0 | 10.80 | 13.61
Cr | 40.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.9 11.2 29.2 50.3 | 11.13 | 12.53


| KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 174.1 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.5 9.5 10.0 9.8 9.1 7.9 6.4 4.8 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 29.04
Ha | 164.8 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.3 6.8 8.3 9.4 10.1 10.2 9.6 8.5 7.0 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 27.41
Cg | 176.2 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.8 4.0 5.4 6.9 8.2 9.3 9.9 10.0 9.4 8.3 6.8 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 27.32
SL | 114.4 | x x x x 0.0 x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.5 5.8 7.3 8.5 9.3 9.7 9.5 8.7 7.6 6.3 4.9 3.5 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 25.11
RP | 89.9 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.5 10.1 10.2 9.5 8.5 6.9 5.4 3.9 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 23.56
Da | 109.4 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.1 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.6 9.6 10.0 9.8 9.0 7.8 6.4 4.8 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 23.13
Ck | 98.5 | x x x x 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.5 7.8 8.9 9.6 9.7 9.3 8.4 7.1 5.7 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 22.76
Ya | 99.8 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.7 7.2 8.3 9.3 9.7 9.5 8.9 7.8 6.5 5.0 3.7 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x | 21.24
Pr | 72.6 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.4 8.6 9.5 9.8 9.5 8.7 7.6 6.2 4.8 3.5 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x | 19.17
Un | 97.0 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.9 7.5 8.9 9.8 10.2 9.9 9.2 7.8 6.3 4.7 3.3 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x | 19.12
Br | 46.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.4 7.1 8.5 9.7 10.2 10.2 9.4 8.2 6.7 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x | 13.61
Cr | 40.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.9 9.9 10.5 10.2 9.4 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.6 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 12.53

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

BigAl
11-09-2014, 10:07 PM
http://wp.me/p3RUgE-1hL Cornell's Schafer going off on Rand Pecknold in post game comments. Worth listening too

lugnut92
11-10-2014, 10:41 AM
http://wp.me/p3RUgE-1hL Cornell's Schafer going off on Rand Pecknold in post game comments. Worth listening too

I think you're in the wrong thread ;)

BigAl
11-10-2014, 03:37 PM
I think you're in the wrong thread ;)

We shouldve done a simulator on how many games he'd be suspended ;) Then i'd be in the right spot

kdiff77
11-10-2014, 06:00 PM
I no longer like this simulator. In fact, I believe it to be rigged.

lugnut92
11-10-2014, 07:27 PM
I no longer like this simulator. In fact, I believe it to be rigged.

Not rigged enough for my liking. Time to kneecap a few teams.

FlagDUDE08
11-10-2014, 07:30 PM
I no longer like this simulator. In fact, I believe it to be rigged.

Everyone knows KRACH is full of Western Bias. :p:D

FlagDUDE08
11-10-2014, 07:31 PM
We shouldve done a simulator on how many games he'd be suspended ;) Then i'd be in the right spot

I project that Mike gets himself suspended once every three years.

Good enough? ;)

kdiff77
11-10-2014, 08:45 PM
Everyone knows KRACH is full of Western Bias. :p:D

I knew the Goofers were involved in this somehow!

FlagDUDE08
11-11-2014, 04:42 PM
I knew the Goofers were involved in this somehow!

While we're at it, kick PROVICED} out of Hockey Rast!!! :D

lugnut92
11-17-2014, 12:31 PM
More games, more prognostications. We are just over one fifth of the way into the new season and we still have one perfect team and one perfectly awful team.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1050.10 possibilities):

Quinnipiac
Colgate
Yale
Harvard
—————
SLU
RPI
Dartmouth
Clarkson
—————
Union
Cornell
Princeton
Brown


Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a hypothetical tie against a perfectly “average” team to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 273.3 | 71.4 16.9 6.7 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 1.49 | 33.48
Cg | 200.8 | 10.8 29.3 21.5 15.3 10.4 6.5 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 | 3.33 | 28.40
Ya | 172.2 | 8.1 20.5 21.2 17.8 13.4 9.1 5.4 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 3.81 | 27.31
Ha | 169.3 | 5.6 15.9 19.6 19.2 15.7 11.1 6.9 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 | 4.18 | 26.62
SL | 109.8 | 2.4 8.0 12.7 15.6 16.8 15.7 12.7 8.7 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 | 5.24 | 24.54
RP | 97.9 | 1.2 6.2 10.6 14.7 17.9 18.8 14.9 9.3 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 | 5.46 | 24.13
Da | 98.3 | 0.4 2.0 4.4 7.6 11.7 16.2 19.8 17.4 12.0 5.9 2.2 0.2 | 6.76 | 21.82
Ck | 78.1 | 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.8 10.6 15.3 19.8 20.3 13.1 6.4 0.8 | 7.81 | 19.80
Un | 98.5 | 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.7 8.4 14.1 21.5 24.1 15.3 7.0 1.2 | 8.19 | 19.16
Cr | 54.5 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.4 8.8 16.5 28.7 28.8 9.2 | 9.84 | 15.31
Pr | 46.3 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 5.7 12.5 26.6 36.9 14.0 | 10.26 | 14.17
Br | 28.9 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.9 17.5 74.6 | 11.64 | 9.26

| KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 273.3 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.4 10.1 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.4 7.4 5.4 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 33.48
Cg | 200.8 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.6 5.2 6.8 8.5 9.9 10.7 10.8 10.1 8.9 7.0 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x x | 28.40
Ya | 172.2 | x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.7 5.4 7.0 8.6 9.9 10.7 10.7 10.0 8.5 6.9 5.0 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 27.31
Ha | 169.3 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.5 8.3 9.7 10.8 10.9 10.4 9.1 7.5 5.5 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 26.62
SL | 109.8 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.2 6.8 8.4 9.5 10.3 10.3 9.7 8.5 7.0 5.3 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 24.54
RP | 97.9 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.6 9.4 10.5 11.1 10.7 9.8 8.0 6.3 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 24.13
Da | 98.3 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.4 8.2 9.5 10.5 10.7 10.3 9.0 7.5 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x | 21.82
Ck | 78.1 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.9 6.5 8.1 9.5 10.3 10.4 9.8 8.8 7.3 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x | 19.80
Un | 98.5 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.5 9.4 10.4 11.2 10.7 9.8 8.1 6.4 4.5 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x | 19.16
Cr | 54.5 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.7 7.6 9.3 10.4 10.8 10.5 9.5 8.0 6.3 4.7 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x | 15.31
Pr | 46.3 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.1 6.0 7.9 9.7 10.7 11.2 10.6 9.4 7.8 6.1 4.4 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 14.17
Br | 28.9 | 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.8 8.2 10.1 11.6 12.0 11.4 9.9 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 9.26

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

If you dislike how wide that table is, blame Brown and Quinnipiac.

lugnut92
11-23-2014, 11:44 AM
And we've passed the quarter pole! Every team now has 6 games played (and 16 games to go). The next time every team will have played the same number of games will be January 31. So get used to the game in hand.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1045.80 possibilities):

Quinnipiac
Harvard
Yale
Colgate
—————
SLU
Clarkson
RPI
Cornell
—————
Dartmouth
Union
Princeton
Brown


Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a hypothetical tie against a perfectly “average” team to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 252.0 | 59.1 21.4 10.1 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 1.77 | 31.92
Ha | 238.5 | 20.0 27.1 19.1 13.3 9.0 5.7 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 x | 3.07 | 28.93
Ya | 174.4 | 8.8 16.9 19.0 16.8 13.7 10.4 7.2 4.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 | 4.09 | 26.91
Cg | 171.9 | 4.9 12.7 16.3 17.1 15.4 12.6 9.5 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 | 4.66 | 26.10
SL | 120.2 | 2.7 8.0 11.7 14.0 15.4 15.2 13.3 10.1 6.4 3.1 0.1 0.0 | 5.42 | 24.67
Ck | 120.1 | 3.0 7.5 11.0 13.6 15.0 15.2 13.7 10.7 6.9 3.4 0.2 0.0 | 5.50 | 24.65
RP | 96.1 | 1.0 3.9 7.4 10.3 13.3 15.8 17.3 16.1 10.3 4.4 0.3 0.0 | 6.22 | 23.36
Cr | 106.8 | 0.4 1.9 3.9 6.3 9.1 12.6 16.2 19.0 17.1 12.1 1.3 0.0 | 7.18 | 21.70
Da | 82.2 | 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.8 11.0 17.5 26.8 25.5 4.4 0.2 | 8.38 | 19.40
Un | 96.3 | 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.5 7.8 13.6 24.0 38.9 6.2 0.4 | 8.88 | 18.36
Pr | 34.6 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 9.3 70.3 17.6 | 11.02 | 11.15
Br | 21.2 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 17.2 81.7 | 11.81 | 6.85

| KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 252.0 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.8 9.8 11.2 12.0 11.6 10.4 8.3 6.1 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 | 31.92
Ha | 238.5 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.8 9.5 11.0 11.5 11.3 9.9 8.3 6.0 4.1 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 x x | 28.93
Ya | 174.4 | x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.0 7.9 9.7 11.0 11.5 11.1 9.9 8.0 6.1 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x x | 26.91
Cg | 171.9 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.5 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.0 9.9 8.4 6.3 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x x | 26.10
SL | 120.2 | x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.5 8.5 9.8 10.9 10.9 10.4 8.9 7.4 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 24.67
Ck | 120.1 | x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.9 6.6 8.4 9.8 10.9 10.9 10.4 9.0 7.3 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 24.65
RP | 96.1 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.7 5.4 7.3 9.0 10.5 11.1 11.0 9.9 8.4 6.5 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 23.36
Cr | 106.8 | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.7 8.4 10.0 10.7 11.0 10.3 9.0 7.2 5.5 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x | 21.70
Da | 82.2 | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.4 7.2 9.2 10.4 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.5 6.6 4.8 3.3 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x | 19.40
Un | 96.3 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.7 5.4 7.4 9.0 10.5 11.0 11.0 9.9 8.5 6.6 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x | 18.36
Pr | 34.6 | x x 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.7 8.4 10.6 12.3 12.5 11.8 10.1 8.0 5.7 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 11.15
Br | 21.2 | 0.5 1.4 3.6 6.3 9.7 12.2 13.7 13.5 12.0 9.6 7.0 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 6.85

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Go Irish
11-25-2014, 08:37 AM
You have Dartmouth ranked much too high IMO. Dartmouth men's hockey is an ongoing joke that hasn't changed much in the past 34 years.

lugnut92
11-25-2014, 09:28 AM
You have Dartmouth ranked much too high IMO. Dartmouth men's hockey is an ongoing joke that hasn't changed much in the past 34 years.

Blame KRACH, not me. I just put in a csv with game results. I have no control over who goes where. If I did, RPI would be #1 and Clarkson and Union would tie for 11th every season.

lugnut92
11-30-2014, 12:36 PM
No ECAC games played since the last update, but we've had plenty of non-conference games to change KRACH numbers, including a Badger win to eliminate the need for the hypothetical tie.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1045.80 possibilities):

Harvard
Quinnipiac
Yale
Colgate
—————
SLU
Cornell
Clarkson
Dartmouth
—————
RPI
Union
Princeton
Brown


Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha | 529.7 | 65.2 21.7 8.2 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 1.56 | 32.87
Qu | 188.0 | 17.9 31.9 22.4 12.8 7.3 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 | 2.88 | 29.14
Ya | 228.1 | 11.8 25.4 24.4 15.8 10.0 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 x | 3.35 | 28.22
Cg | 166.5 | 2.1 7.1 13.6 18.1 17.0 14.4 11.5 8.4 5.4 2.4 0.1 0.0 | 5.22 | 24.98
SL | 114.5 | 1.2 4.5 9.4 13.5 15.7 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.0 4.7 0.2 0.0 | 5.90 | 23.70
Cr | 152.7 | 0.9 3.7 8.2 12.6 15.0 15.8 15.1 13.0 10.0 5.4 0.3 0.0 | 6.10 | 23.38
Ck | 101.6 | 0.7 3.0 6.5 10.3 13.2 15.2 16.0 15.0 12.6 7.3 0.3 0.0 | 6.46 | 22.86
Da | 114.2 | 0.1 1.5 3.9 7.1 9.9 12.8 15.4 18.0 18.7 11.3 1.0 0.1 | 7.16 | 21.54
RP | 74.9 | 0.1 1.0 3.0 5.7 8.7 12.0 15.6 19.6 21.6 11.7 0.9 0.1 | 7.38 | 21.08
Un | 95.8 | 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 6.3 10.8 20.1 47.3 7.1 1.2 | 9.14 | 17.56
Pr | 31.3 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 5.7 54.5 38.7 | 11.30 | 9.98
Br | 32.9 | x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.8 35.6 59.9 | 11.55 | 8.70

| KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha | 529.7 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.8 10.2 12.3 13.3 13.1 11.3 8.8 5.6 3.1 1.2 0.4 x x | 32.87
Qu | 188.0 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.5 9.3 10.8 11.5 11.4 10.2 8.5 6.4 4.5 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 29.14
Ya | 228.1 | x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.5 5.2 7.2 9.1 10.9 11.6 11.8 10.6 9.0 6.7 4.6 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 x x x | 28.22
Cg | 166.5 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.0 7.8 9.6 10.7 11.3 10.8 9.8 8.0 6.1 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 24.98
SL | 114.5 | x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.6 8.4 10.1 10.9 11.2 10.4 9.1 7.3 5.5 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 23.70
Cr | 152.7 | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.6 5.2 7.2 8.8 10.4 11.0 11.1 10.1 8.8 6.8 5.0 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 23.38
Ck | 101.6 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.5 6.3 8.2 9.8 11.0 11.1 10.6 9.3 7.6 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 22.86
Da | 114.2 | x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.7 10.0 10.9 10.8 10.3 8.8 7.1 5.2 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x | 21.54
RP | 74.9 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 4.2 5.9 8.1 9.8 11.0 11.3 10.9 9.6 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 21.08
Un | 95.8 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.1 6.9 8.8 10.3 11.2 11.1 10.3 8.7 7.0 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x | 17.56
Pr | 31.3 | x x 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.5 6.2 8.9 11.5 12.8 13.0 11.8 9.9 7.4 5.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 9.98
Br | 32.9 | 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.5 6.9 9.6 11.5 12.6 12.4 11.1 9.1 6.9 4.8 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x | 8.70

Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.