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  • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

    Originally posted by aparch View Post
    Flagdude used to have a simulator for the PWR at wa2aea.com. It looks like he has issues with his website right now. I have it saved to a jump drive somewhere. I'll look for it and try to re-post it this weekend. You *should* be able to tinker with it, eliminate the LSSU games, and run the RPI simulation.
    Yeah, I found the old slack.net one but it hasn't been updated since 2013 I think?
    Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

    Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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    • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

      Originally posted by aparch View Post


      Anyway, here's the link to Flagdude's RPI simulator:

      http://www.nmubaseball.net/uscho/NCAARPIPWR.zip
      Here's a sample Excel file that shows the format you need for it to build upon:
      http://www.nmubaseball.net/uscho/NCA...ey20131208.csv

      I've tinkered with it for NCAA, and used it to see what it would do for the AHL.


      *edit* I haven't gotten down to the nuts and bolts of the simulation program, so the weighted bonuses may not be calculated right.
      ok, let me rephrased, upon further inspection I have backed off that statement when I posted that, I had not checked other teams and noticed the BU exclusion, and still can't get my numbers to match close enough to SIouxSports to verify anything. I'm just really confused why the average of the "Win% vs others" column doesn't equal the unadjusted "Opp Win%" on this page. Even when I verify winning percentages of the teams MTU has played, the rounding errors of using their 4 decimal numbers doesn't fix that.
      Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

      Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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      • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

        Ok, I figured out how SiouxSports calculates a teams Opp Win%.

        you manipulate each opponent's Win% vs others by multiplying by the Weighted GP value (1.2 for road, 1 for neutral, 0.8 for home).
        Sum each of those numbers and divide by the sum of the Weighted GP.

        I get the same value as listed on the Sioux Sports website.

        The same calc does not work for Opp Opp Win%
        Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

        Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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        • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

          Originally posted by aparch View Post


          Anyway, here's the link to Flagdude's RPI simulator:

          http://www.nmubaseball.net/uscho/NCAARPIPWR.zip
          Here's a sample Excel file that shows the format you need for it to build upon:
          http://www.nmubaseball.net/uscho/NCA...ey20131208.csv

          I've tinkered with it for NCAA, and used it to see what it would do for the AHL.


          *edit* I haven't gotten down to the nuts and bolts of the simulation program, so the weighted bonuses may not be calculated right.
          Thanks for the links!

          GFM
          Geof F. Morris
          UAH BSE MAE 2002
          UAHHockey.com

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          • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

            I know that we have a WCHA TV thread, but I wanted to let everyone know that there are half-season packages for $70 available immediately. Matt Hodson and I have had a good dialogue about the service's problems, and things have gotten a lot better.

            The biggest thing from our email exchange today is that there will be HD-quality feeds from eight of the ten league facilities, and the league is working to get the other two up ASAP. Akamai has done a great job in helping the league schools to get up to snuff. Also, they're doing their best to gate the game-switcher up Very Soon Now.

            I think that 2015 is going to bring better service from WCHA TV.

            GFM
            Geof F. Morris
            UAH BSE MAE 2002
            UAHHockey.com

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            • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

              Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
              I know that we have a WCHA TV thread, but I wanted to let everyone know that there are half-season packages for $70 available immediately. Matt Hodson and I have had a good dialogue about the service's problems, and things have gotten a lot better.

              The biggest thing from our email exchange today is that there will be HD-quality feeds from eight of the ten league facilities, and the league is working to get the other two up ASAP. Akamai has done a great job in helping the league schools to get up to snuff. Also, they're doing their best to gate the game-switcher up Very Soon Now.

              I think that 2015 is going to bring better service from WCHA TV.

              GFM
              which 8?
              Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

              Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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              • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                The bottom line with the RPI & PWR is that it means absolutely nothing until the last game of the season is finished.
                "The use of common sense and logic will not be tolerated and may result in fine and/or suspension."- Western Professional Hockey League By-laws. 1999-2000.

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                • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                  Originally posted by davyd83 View Post
                  The bottom line with the RPI & PWR is that it means absolutely nothing until the last game of the season is finished.
                  This. Why do people obsess over the math before February?

                  Comment


                  • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                    Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                    which 8?
                    Matt didn't say in his email, and I didn't ask. I'm betting that Fairbanks will be one. I'd expect Lake next and maybe UAH. I know that UAH was getting more bandwidth into the rink.

                    GFM
                    Geof F. Morris
                    UAH BSE MAE 2002
                    UAHHockey.com

                    Comment


                    • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                      Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                      Matt didn't say in his email, and I didn't ask. I'm betting that Fairbanks will be one. I'd expect Lake next and maybe UAH. I know that UAH was getting more bandwidth into the rink.

                      GFM
                      Fairbanks HD should be up and running....GF was the UAH-AK series not???

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                      • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                        Originally posted by fairbanks hockey puck View Post
                        Fairbanks HD should be up and running....GF was the UAH-AK series not???
                        I don't think that anyone was HD in 2014, and that wasn't the fault of the schools per se. I can't remember if the games were shot widescreen or not. UAHstatman, do you remember?

                        GFM
                        Geof F. Morris
                        UAH BSE MAE 2002
                        UAHHockey.com

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                        • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                          I feel like I have to quote Matt's email here: "HD quality: We’ve been able to successfully implement multi-bit rate functionality, which minimizes buffering and enables HD-quality feeds (even with a less-than-optimal in-venue bandwidth), for 8 of our 10 venues. We are working hard with both of those institutions, and on the America One/Akamai back-end, to find a solution for the other two."

                          So it looks like bandwidth may not necessarily be the problem for those schools. That tells me that we may be back to "these schools aren't producing in HD".

                          GFM
                          Geof F. Morris
                          UAH BSE MAE 2002
                          UAHHockey.com

                          Comment


                          • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                            Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
                            I don't think that anyone was HD in 2014, and that wasn't the fault of the schools per se. I can't remember if the games were shot widescreen or not. UAHstatman, do you remember?

                            GFM
                            Just checked the replay -- it was widescreen.
                            Michael Napier - UAH '97
                            uahhockey.com

                            UAH Chargers Hockey
                            U.S. National Club Champions - 1982, 1983, 1984
                            NCAA Division II National Champions - 1996, 1998
                            CHA Regular Season Champions - 2001, 2003
                            CHA Tournament Champions - 2007, 2010

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                            • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                              Happy new year to my WCHA brethren. May your 2015 be full of non conference wins, HD streaming, and a TV deal on a three-digit channel that doesn't have a 7 in front of it.
                              “We offer no apology for our location at 64 51’21’’ north latitude. We are building for the future and we are confident that well directed effort and education are the forces which make progress possible”

                              —UA President Charles E. Bunnell, 1925

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                              • Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

                                Shirtless Guy: According to SiouxSports.com, UAH is now counting towards your RPI.
                                “Demolish the bridges behind you… then there is no choice but to build again.”

                                Live Radio from 100.3

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