UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

[JB]

I to think it is too early to tell anything.

My post was a tongue in check sort of reply to an earlier post about maybe learning something from that game. (I am not sure that post was overly serious either.) Obviously I was a bit obtuse, sorry 'bout that.

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

College Hockey: UNH freshman Clark ready, willing and able:
http://www.unionleader.com/article/2...TS22/141029402

Wildcats playing with an edge:
http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll...3/-1/fossports

Freshman defenseman John Furgele (ankle) is doubtful for Saturday’s game against CC while freshman forward Shane Eiserman (head) and senior forward Jay Camper (possible concussion) are questionable.

Thanks for the update on these players..bummer! Hopefully they will be ready to go for the UML series! I watched that game last night on NESN...I'm sure UML will be loaded for bear, er, 'Cat by next weekend. But onto tonight! The 'Whitt will surely be bumpin'. Reppin' section 101.

[Darius]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

I was semi serious. We know that MI isn't a door mat (never thought they were) and our win should have some season's end ranking value . We saw that MI has some very talented players who can pick a spot and hit it when given opportunities. UML has a young team, a lot of defensive work to do and goal tenders who look small and ineffective compared to Hellebuyck.

UML will play a better defensive game against us, won't be as aggressive offensively. I'll reevaluate after tonight, but right now I like our chances vs. UML, realistically a split. If we can shoot with anywhere close to the precision displayed by MI we will be OK. Big IF.

[FiveHole12]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

So Michigan crushed Lowell 8-4, what the heck does that mean?

It means... if UNH looks past Colorado College tonight, they're gonna get their butts kicked.
CC not a bad team.

[dave29]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

It means... if UNH looks past Colorado College tonight, they're gonna get their butts kicked.
CC not a bad team.

Well we have given up 13 goals in our last two games so right now we are a bad team. UNH shouldn't have any trouble with CC tonight.

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

It means... if UNH looks past Colorado College tonight, they're gonna get their butts kicked.
CC not a bad team.

That thought crossed my mind; being an umpire I've seen it too many times. And CC didn't come out East for nothin'. Surely they want to salvage something out of their trip. Hopefully this point has been made...Interestingly was thinking that CC was the first UNH hockey game I ever saw back in '07 (or 08?) for parents weekend when my son was a frosh. Time flies. Go 'Cats!

[NCAA watcher]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

If by statistical analysis you mean basic math that assumes away the most critical part of a problem, then have at it. Similar to baseball BABIP, any assumption that the quality of the shot, or the velocity of the hit, will be the same is just incorrect and ruins the whole analysis. Chuck, the SOG battle continues.

[JB]

I don't agree 100% with that analysis. It assumes all shots are made equal. I don't agree, team defense heavily influences save percentage. I have yet to see a metric that cleanly separates the goalie. I just don't believe a shot from the point with no traffic is equal to a shot from the slot on a two on one.

P.S. we were typing at the same time...

[C-H-C]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

Here's the article which examined DeSmith's contribution to UNH's performance and compared it with Adam Clark (and other HE goalies):

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/new...d_thoughts.php

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

Let's leave the so-called "advanced metrics" to baseball, OK? Or bowling, better still.

Although I've always been a National League guy, I find somehow myself pulling for the Royals, if only to inflict more pain on the pocket protector brigade, who apparently think Ned Yost is the SABR-anti-Christ. Right now, Ned is frontrunner for WIS Man of the Year.

WAY too many variables in sports like hockey, soccer, and other one-ball, two team, continuous action "goal" sports to reduce them to numbers. Which is why those are the most enjoyable and challenging sports to play AND watch (and not coincidentally, the ones who arguably attract the best all-around athletes). Even American football is getting bogged down with too many stoppages, video replays ad nauseum, and endless rule changes/enforcement edicts. Hey ho, I guess at least the *fantasy* *players* are happy.

Now git off ma durned lawn, ya little whippahsnappahs, gol'dammit!!

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

I don't agree 100% with that analysis. It assumes all shots are made equal. I don't agree, team defense heavily influences save percentage. I have yet to see a metric that cleanly separates the goalie. I just don't believe a shot from the point with no traffic is equal to a shot from the slot on a two on one.

P.S. we were typing at the same time...

My biggest issue with stats like these - beyond your point that it assumes all shots are equal - is that it assumes all GOALS are equal. My belief has always been that some goals are bigger than others. Go-ahead goals - whether it be early in the game, or more so later in a game - are HUGE. Game-tying goals likewise. Goals that expand a lead aren't quite as important, and decrease importance as a lead gets bigger. Likewise, goals that close a multi-goal gap can have value OR not, depending upon the situation of the game. That's all just very basic competitive logic. But ALL are weighted equally in any simple straight-line statistical analysis.

My arguments as to the relatively meaningless nature of SOG's - and let's face it, only GOALS count when determining wins & losses - track the same basic logic. As goes the (in)famous but highly accurate quote by Coach Herm Edwards back in the day ...

"You play to WIN the game!" Only players with a selfish, me-first mentality give a rat's you-know-what about personal stats.

I'd be happy to go on an extended rant on why starting pitchers' W-L record is now vastly undervalued by Pocket Protector Nation, but this is a hockey site, and I'm already risking too much "high horse" annoyance on the goalie stat subject matter to waste it needlessly.

Bottom line: a talented, disciplined goalie who can come up with the goods when the game is on the line is the most valuable goalie any team can hope to have. One who makes the routine saves routine, limits rebounds to bail out his/her defense, does not leak soft goals, AND rises to the big competitive moments is the guy/gal you want out there when the chips are down. Simple as, and good luck trying to generate an objective, accurate and reliable advanced metric on that one.

It's why I focus so much on the importance of a team like UNH making it deep into postseason competitions as often as possible. You can only learn how to play (and then how to succeed) in high-pressure settings by playing in them - the more, the better. And last year the team got there, which will benefit the current sophs and juniors for at least two more seasons. There's a good chance that won't pay dividends later this year (hopefully I'm wrong on that), but it will be there to draw upon "next year" (see this thread's title). JMHO.

[Snively65]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

UNH has and will likely continue to have a much lower SOS this season (40th at the moment) than previous years, but I am fine with that if the Cats can earn a few more W's to build their confidence, high SOG or not.

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

Well we have given up 13 goals in our last two games so right now we are a bad team. UNH shouldn't have any trouble with CC tonight.

Make that 19 goals in the last three games. Felger, take a bow - looks like you had this one pegged.

Let the raucous over-jubilation begin!! Me ... I'm always happy when S. Yzerman lights the lamp.

[HockeyRef]

Make that 19 goals in the last three games. Felger, take a bow - looks like you had this one pegged.

Let the raucous over-jubilation begin!! Me ... I'm always happy when S. Yzerman lights the lamp.

Thanks for breaking the ice! Woot Wildcats!!!

[Snively65]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014/2015 - Wait 'Til Next Year!!!

And, UNH won handily the SOG contest tonight, dumping Chuck to 1-2-1 for early in the season.