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NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

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  • NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

    Has anyone seen any odds posted for this year's tournament. I think in the past I've seen odds on going all the way but not on individual games.

    Great to see the Catamounts back in the dance!

  • #2
    Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

    First round KRACH odds:
    BC 0.769
    Lowell 0.586
    Wisconsin 0.516
    Ferris 0.557
    Union 0.695
    Quinnipiac 0.533
    Minnesota 0.933
    St Cloud 0.506

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    • #3
      Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

      Originally posted by goblue78 View Post
      First round KRACH odds:
      BC 0.769
      Lowell 0.586
      Wisconsin 0.516
      Ferris 0.557
      Union 0.695
      Quinnipiac 0.533
      Minnesota 0.933
      St Cloud 0.506
      The other teams don't count ??
      It all starts with the goaltending.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by sshablak View Post
        The other teams don't count ??
        Count as much as these don't
        a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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        • #5
          Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

          Originally posted by goblue78 View Post
          First round KRACH odds:
          BC 0.769
          Lowell 0.586
          Wisconsin 0.516
          Ferris 0.557
          Union 0.695
          Quinnipiac 0.533
          Minnesota 0.933
          St Cloud 0.506
          These odds were created while someone was on crack I think... Union has better odds of beating UVM then Lowell does of taking out Mankato... that doesn't even pass the crack cocaine sniff test.
          Originally posted by Hokydad
          Maine will be better this year relative to rankings than BC will be this year

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          • #6
            Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

            Originally posted by sshablak View Post
            The other teams don't count ??
            Those appear to be probabilities, not odds. The probabilities in each game add up to 1. If the probability that BC will win is 0.769, the probability that Denver will win is .231.

            Originally posted by jcarter7669 View Post
            These odds were created while someone was on crack I think... Union has better odds of beating UVM then Lowell does of taking out Mankato... that doesn't even pass the crack cocaine sniff test.
            That the probability that a one seed will be a four seed is greater than the probability that a two seed will beat a three seed is exactly what you'd expect.

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            • #7
              Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

              I think both of you are correct above.

              Per KRACH, the odds are exactly as you'd expect.

              But they are far from the odds a Vegas oddsmaker would develop for gambling purposes, which is why they don't pass the "sniff test".

              I was trying to find Vegas gambling odds, as in the past they were posted at one or two casinos, but I have not found them this year yet.

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              • #8
                Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

                Originally posted by Catamount93 View Post
                I was trying to find Vegas gambling odds, as in the past they were posted at one or two casinos, but I have not found them this year yet.
                My rule of thumb is that if I'm trying to find odds on a collegiate sporting event, Chestnut Hill is the logical place to start
                UNH Hockey: From "Why Not Us' to "Woe is Us"

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                • #9
                  Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

                  Originally posted by Catamount93 View Post
                  But they are far from the odds a Vegas oddsmaker would develop for gambling purposes, which is why they don't pass the "sniff test".
                  I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "far from," beyond the fact that these are indeed probabilities, not odds. Las Vegas bookmakers simply try to get equal action on both sides and collect the vig. They do this by putting out preliminary lines (which tend to be quite similar to KRACH odds, btw) and then open very limited betting to see which way to move the lines. So the percentages here aren't exactly lines, because they haven't been adjusted for the 10 percent vig, but otherwise they ought to be fairly close to fair, with the proviso that strong bettor interest on one side or another can move the odds for reasons that have little to do with fundamentals. Roughly, speaking, the odds will simply be the win probabilities expressed as odds ratios (p/(1-p)) and then rounded for vig. For example, BC at .769 win probability becomes 1:3 odds, betting 3 to return 4.

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                  • #10
                    Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

                    Ok, if Vegas doesn't want to put out odds, I will:

                    Minn 3/1
                    BC 7/2
                    Union 7/2
                    Wisc 4/1
                    UM Lowell 5/1
                    Ferris St 6/1
                    Quinnipiac 8/1
                    SCSU 10/1
                    ND 10/1
                    Prov 12/1
                    Minn St. 12/1
                    Colgate 15/1
                    North Dakota 18/1
                    Vermont 20/1
                    Denver 25/1
                    Robert Morris 100/1
                    Last edited by johnk; 03-25-2014, 02:48 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

                      Originally posted by goblue78 View Post
                      First round KRACH odds:
                      BC 0.769
                      Lowell 0.586
                      Wisconsin 0.516
                      Ferris 0.557
                      Union 0.695
                      Quinnipiac 0.533
                      Minnesota 0.933
                      St Cloud 0.506
                      I gotta laugh at these. No way MN is a 93/7 likelihood to win the game against RM. The Gophers women's team was a 90%+ likelihood to win an NC and I laughed at that one too.

                      I'd put quite a bit of money on UW though.
                      Go Gophers!

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                      • #12
                        Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

                        Originally posted by johnk View Post
                        Ok, if Vegas doesn't want to put out odds, I will:

                        Minn 3/1
                        BC 7/2
                        Union 7/2
                        Wisc 4/1
                        UM Lowell 5/1
                        Ferris St 6/1
                        Quinnipiac 8/1
                        SCSU 10/1
                        ND 10/1
                        Prov 12/1
                        Minn St. 12/1
                        Colgate 15/1
                        North Dakota 18/1
                        Vermont 20/1
                        Denver 25/1
                        Robert Morris 100/1
                        I would move Ferris down and put Colgate higher..(above Prov) and UML above Wisc but looks about right otherwise.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

                          Unfortunately, 5mn_Major, there's no way to tell by itself if the 0.933 is right. Even if RM wins, that just means that the 7 percent chance came through. That happens... wait for it... 7 percent of the time! All the KRACh probabilities actually means is that when teams as good as Minnesota play teams as below-average as RM, the good teams wins over 9 out of ten times. What part of that seems unlikely to you?

                          If you're making the somewhat more sophisticated point that RM must have played better lately to get through the AHA tournament and MN must be playing worse to not even get to the Big10 final, then that's something that can be estimated. There doesn't actually seem to be a lot of momentum in college hockey, although writers love to write about it, but there is some. But if you want to make a bet on RM and are willing to take, say, 5-1, let me know and maybe we can make a deal.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by goblue78 View Post
                            Unfortunately, 5mn_Major, there's no way to tell by itself if the 0.933 is right. Even if RM wins, that just means that the 7 percent chance came through. That happens... wait for it... 7 percent of the time! All the KRACh probabilities actually means is that when teams as good as Minnesota play teams as below-average as RM, the good teams wins over 9 out of ten times. What part of that seems unlikely to you?

                            If you're making the somewhat more sophisticated point that RM must have played better lately to get through the AHA tournament and MN must be playing worse to not even get to the Big10 final, then that's something that can be estimated. There doesn't actually seem to be a lot of momentum in college hockey, although writers love to write about it, but there is some. But if you want to make a bet on RM and are willing to take, say, 5-1, let me know and maybe we can make a deal.
                            Momentum, no. But there is such a thing as playing with confidence and playing without. Playing loose and gripping your stick a bit too tight. Teams that are said to have "momentum" are usually playing with a lot of confidence, don't seem to press, and do the things that win you games (like get shots to the net and get bodies there). Teams playing without "momentum" seem to press, get away from the things that got them there, and play too tight.

                            I am a firm believer that confidence is one of the most important and most underrated aspects to playing good hockey. It's something that takes time to build, but can be lost in an instant.
                            @MNState0fHockey on Twitter
                            On the Web at www.mnhockeycentral.com
                            High School, Gophers, and Wild News on Facebook at Minnesota Hockey Central

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                            • #15
                              Re: NCAA Hockey Tournament Odds

                              Originally posted by mnstate0fhockey View Post
                              Momentum, no. But there is such a thing as playing with confidence and playing without. Playing loose and gripping your stick a bit too tight. Teams that are said to have "momentum" are usually playing with a lot of confidence, don't seem to press, and do the things that win you games (like get shots to the net and get bodies there). Teams playing without "momentum" seem to press, get away from the things that got them there, and play too tight.

                              I am a firm believer that confidence is one of the most important and most underrated aspects to playing good hockey. It's something that takes time to build, but can be lost in an instant.
                              I agree with you... and with that, leadership. Its amazing to see how much of hockey is the last step or move you are willing to take. This is something that I know Lowell knows.
                              BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

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