UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

I have to believe Agosta is gone since he was on the ice for senior night. Like this year, they will be very thin on defense. There's going to be a tremendous burden on Pesce next year, given the inexperience of those surrounding him.

I'd love to see Agosta back, but it's hardly guaranteed, and if I had to bet money, I'd say he's gone too.

And for what it's worth, while I think Pesce will be back next year ... there's no guarantee there either. He is clearly progressing at UNH though, so hopefully Carolina is not putting any pressure on him to turn pro just yet. But just imagine what the blue line crew looks like next year IF both Agosta AND Pesce are gone?

The depth chart at forward looks extremely thin as far as experienced talent goes. Ouch. And I'll be shocked if anything more than 3 of those frosh forwards start the season in the line-up. At least two of the four non-frosh players that 'Watcher has listed on the outside looking in will start the season in the line-up, no doubt about it. Coach will rotate the guys at the bottom of the depth chart to work in the less-ready frosh players gradually, seeing who he can trust, and who might not quite be ready yet - as in past seasons.

As with last year ... DeSmith will carry the load, others will sit and pick up scraps of PT.

"Fun team to watch" = full-blown rebuilding year, sub-.500 record, quick out in the HE Tourney (if the play-in round even counts as the tourney?). The coaching staff is going to have to earn their corn this coming season, that's for sure. Otherwise, to me it looks like a team that will be challenged defensively in front of an average HE goalie, and a team that will struggle to generate consistent offense against all except the dregs of the league.

Prediction: 7th place if Pesce & Agosta return; 8th place if only Pesce returns; 10th place if Pesce leaves

[C-H-C]

So which is it? Watcher says Clark will "minimally push" DeSmith, while CHC points to his stature in the BCHL. Given what I know about the BCHL, that offensive numbers are inflated, I am wondering if Clark got much support from his d-men but still produced decent numbers. On the negative side, he was on the Central Scouting list a year ago but then was not drafted this year. Does that mean his stock dropped and, if so, why. I am going to tell you that unless DeSmith makes a marked improvement over his performance this season, next season could be a long one for the Wildcats.

My preference is to share as much information about the UNH recruits that I can gather - from games I've watched, articles I've read, discussions with talent evaluators, and stats - and let you all decide on the player's potential.

Adam Clark played for a .500 team that finished next to last in their BCHL Division. I think his save percentage (.911) is more reflective of his current abilities than his GAA (2.87) for the reason you stated. The BCHL is a more offensive-oriented league than the USHL. His save percentage was comparable to Hunter Miska's - a former US NTDP U17 and U18 goalie who is committed to Minnesota-Duluth and who played this season for one of the top 5 teams (Penticton Vee) in the BCHL.

Clark has the physical stature and style of Gillies and Hellebuyck. At age 21, Clark is 1 and 1/2 years younger than DeSmith but he does have three years of BCHL experience.

My hunch is that he will earn more than 1 or 2 starts next season, and maybe several more. But I wouldn't want to bet a pay check on my hunch, or anyone else's hunch for that matter.

[claver2010]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

Players he got to commit but never came for various reasons:
Johnny Gaudreau (admissions on summer vacation)

I love that this is still a thing.

[C-H-C]

Another reasoned response to Don Cherry's tweet about Eric Knodel:

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/2...hockey-players

[Dan]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

And I'll be shocked if anything more than 3 of those frosh forwards start the season in the line-up. At least two of the four non-frosh players that 'Watcher has listed on the outside looking in will start the season in the line-up, no doubt about it. Coach will rotate the guys at the bottom of the depth chart to work in the less-ready frosh players gradually, seeing who he can trust, and who might not quite be ready yet - as in past seasons.

I think you are being overly pessimistic as a whole.

More importantly, I'd be SHOCKED and truly disappointed in the coaching staff if at the VERY LEAST McNicholas, Eiserman, Poturalski & Foegele are not in the line-up regularly.

McNicholas, Eiserman & Poturalski are all simply just better than the returning forwards that Watcher has in the stands. They are also older incoming freshman - all three could have come last season (and were at one point or another each arriving in 2013-14 was discussed). I think they were pushed back for a reason - to come in this season as a group with (more) playing time available.

As for Foegele - there is NO reason for him to come this season to sit in the stands. He's being pushed up a year because his development has taken off, but he is still young and making a big jump. I can't see them rushing him unless they think he's going to contribute. Otherwise, he'd be better served with a year in the USHL or the BCHL.

I'm not sold on Salvaggio beating out the upper classmen - but hope he proves he deserves to be out there ahead of them.

[Greg Ambrose]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

I'd love to see Agosta back, but it's hardly guaranteed, and if I had to bet money, I'd say he's gone too.

And for what it's worth, while I think Pesce will be back next year ... there's no guarantee there either. He is clearly progressing at UNH though, so hopefully Carolina is not putting any pressure on him to turn pro just yet. But just imagine what the blue line crew looks like next year IF both Agosta AND Pesce are gone?

The depth chart at forward looks extremely thin as far as experienced talent goes. Ouch. And I'll be shocked if anything more than 3 of those frosh forwards start the season in the line-up. At least two of the four non-frosh players that 'Watcher has listed on the outside looking in will start the season in the line-up, no doubt about it. Coach will rotate the guys at the bottom of the depth chart to work in the less-ready frosh players gradually, seeing who he can trust, and who might not quite be ready yet - as in past seasons.

As with last year ... DeSmith will carry the load, others will sit and pick up scraps of PT.

"Fun team to watch" = full-blown rebuilding year, sub-.500 record, quick out in the HE Tourney (if the play-in round even counts as the tourney?). The coaching staff is going to have to earn their corn this coming season, that's for sure. Otherwise, to me it looks like a team that will be challenged defensively in front of an average HE goalie, and a team that will struggle to generate consistent offense against all except the dregs of the league.

Prediction: 7th place if Pesce & Agosta return; 8th place if only Pesce returns; 10th place if Pesce leaves

Boy Chuck, that's pretty pessimistic. UNH has not finished that low in Hockey East since the Kullen years. Given Umile's track record of not necessarily bringing in the most talented recurits but having the ability to coach 'em up, I have to think six is as low as they can go. But that's not much of a ringing endorsement is it? I figure they'll find a way to score some goals. After all Sorkin had 20 or so this year I never thought he would get to that level given his past inability to finish. So I'll be optimistic and see the first line, anchored by Willows and a hopefully healthy Downing, reaching the level of this year's first line. My real concern is from the blue line back. Very thin on experience among defensemen and not much hope for a bump up in play from DeSmith. Rarely does he ever steal a game for you, second game vs. Merrimack being the notable exception.

[Aerman]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

I love that this is still a thing.

Are you expecting the facts to change?

[Darius]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

I love that this is still a thing.

Maybe JG turns pro when BC's season ends. Then it will no longer be a thing.

[Chuck Murray]

Lotsa offense just walked out that door ...

Boy Chuck, that's pretty pessimistic. UNH has not finished that low in Hockey East since the Kullen years. Given Umile's track record of not necessarily bringing in the most talented recurits but having the ability to coach 'em up, I have to think six is as low as they can go. But that's not much of a ringing endorsement is it? I figure they'll find a way to score some goals. After all Sorkin had 20 or so this year I never thought he would get to that level given his past inability to finish. So I'll be optimistic and see the first line, anchored by Willows and a hopefully healthy Downing, reaching the level of this year's first line. My real concern is from the blue line back. Very thin on experience among defensemen and not much hope for a bump up in play from DeSmith. Rarely does he ever steal a game for you, second game vs. Merrimack being the notable exception.

Overall, I agree with most of what you've said, Greg. Events over the last week have left the blue line missing its two most dominant players, and there's still the possibility there may still be another shoe(s) to drop back there (most likely Agosta, possibly even Pesce). And DeSmith is a good-but-not-great goalie, who will be counted on to carry a team with an inexperienced D-corps AND one that will almost certainly not score as many goals as this past year's team did. It's been 15 years now since Coach Umile dropped a multi-year starter for a first year goalie (Matile/Conklin), so while Clark may end up being the long-term answer between the pipes, I'll be surprised if he gets anything more than "Wyer time" next season, barring injuries.

The simple math suggests this year's team finished 4th, but without some breaks on the final weekend, they could (should?) have finished 5th-6th THIS year. That's not to take anything away from what the guys did down the stretch, but rather to point out that a 6th place finish THIS year was actually pretty close to reality. And giving up more goals at one end, while scoring less up at the other end, is not a formula that bodes well for an improvement in 2014/2015.

I do like what we saw out of Cleland and Maller as the season played out, and the heavy minutes both got down the stretch will pay benefits next season and beyond, no doubt. But Knodel was an All-HE First Team performer this year, and TvR was right up there with him, barring the injury. HUGE skates to fill. Pesce stepped up big-time, and if he is back, he will lead the defense, and will probably do so quite capably. Agosta is a serviceable guy who gave the team plenty of quality, reliable minutes this year, but he's not an All-HE talent. And I don't think he'll be back anyway.

Even if the defense ends up "breaking even" next year - and if Coach Tortorella can pull that off, kudos to him - there's a TON of offense that just took their final drive off campus these last few days. And a LOT of that offense actually came from back on the blue line (Knodel/TvR), which I think helped bolster the thin scoring up front beyond the first line this year (and last). That's not likely to be there next season. So I think the 'Cats are going to struggle for offense, at least until the younger players begin to adjust to the level, and to each other. Unless you get an unexpected Austin Block-like year out of the likes of Camper, Trush, Correale, Gaudreault, Smith, etc. - I just don't see the goals out there.

I hope I'm wrong ... and I have every faith that the guys on here who know their recruiting are correct that the incoming batch of forwards will turn out to be a "cut above" the most recent classes. But I think the loss of TvR takes away any real shot at retaining HE QF home ice this coming season, and it will take anothe year before the rebuilt team begins its way back up the league. If it happens sooner than that, the guys behind the bench will be a big factor. JMHO.

[C-H-C]

Here's more analysis by Chris Peters of unitedstatesofhockey.com this time on Kevin Goumas:

"Kevin Goumas (UNH) — C – Signed by the Philadelphia Flyers organization on March 26 – I don’t usually include guys that sign AHL-only deals on this list, but I felt Goumas warranted further analysis as I think he could one day work his way into the NHL eventually. The four-year star at UNH has really come into his own over the last two seasons after steadily improving with each passing year. This year, as a senior, Goumas posted 52 points, which put him fifth in the country and was his career high. Last year, the Long Beach, N.Y., native had a strong junior campaign, had pro offers out there, but opted to go back to UNH and I think he was rewarded for it, even though the Wildcats missed out on the national tournament. Goumas finished his college career with 146 points in 146 games. He will join the Adirondack Phantoms for the remainder of the season on an amateur tryout agreement and signed an AHL-only deal for next year, but he has the potential to move up the ranks in an organization light on productive prospects. Goumas is small at 5-10, 160, but the reason I believe he could develop into an NHL player down the road is his smarts. A lot of his success in college the last two years was by using his skill and hockey sense to make the right play instead of the first play. He has shown good puck skills and has steadily improved his skating. Goumas also has some touch around the net. If he performs well on his AHL deal, he will still be young enough to fall under the entry-level system if Philly wants to sign him as he is 22 right now. This also means the Flyers aren’t using one of the 50 contracts they’re limited to and could push for more college UFAs. The Flyers are going low-risk with Goumas on this deal, even lower than spending a AHL contract, meaning this is a fantastic get for them. Here’s a nifty wraparound goal against Providence from this season:"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WF5Y19NAupA

[JB]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

I like to look at college hockey recruits a couple ways:

Age – true freshman tend to need a little more time, some may impact end of freshman year but tend to have a higher ceiling. Older players tend to have a quicker hit but don’t grow as much. Much older players caveat emptor (Travis Banga anyone), late bloomers blow this all to hell but I find it a good indicator.

League/roll – if you don’t score in juniors you tend not to in college. However the BCHL has always been a bit more offensive (but I haven’t tracked lately) so you need to take it with a grain of salt.

Size – each level is bigger and faster and small guys tend to take a little longer to adjust (see Kelleher this year, Haydar being an obvious exception).

So my thoughts not seeing a single one of these guys play:

McNicholas – Nearly came in this year and will be arriving as a 20 year old, 5’ 10” 175, team leading score 3rd in goals, 5th in league. To me a little old means more immediate impact, not tiny but most UNH players that height are 185ish so he needs some muscle, I always worry about guys with high points totals due to assists does he have a line mate potting a pile of goals. Vernon has a 30, 26, 23 goal scorers so the spread isn’t crazy.

Eiserman – Will be 18 when he arrives 19 early in the season, 6’2” 200, 5th on team in goal scoring only 5 points back, 4th in goals, 9th in shots taken, ties for team leads at +20. Is he a true freshman? At only 18 when arriving on campus maybe, additionally his birthday is outside the typical 30 day kindergarten/1st grade window so he was likely one of the oldest in his grade not youngest, so I am guessing yes. Size will not be a limitation. Nobody on Dubuque is in the top 20 in USHL in points, hasn’t really shown a scoring touch yet either at NDP or USHL. But leading team in +- seems to indicate a responsible player.

Poturalski - Nearly came in this year and will be arriving as a 20 year old, 5’-10” 185, team leader in scoring by a big margin (59 to 33), team lead in goals and assists, 5th in points in USHL, only a +3. Is an older in coming player but took a big leap forward this year in goals, assists and +-. Cedar Rapids did finish with a .616 record, as a team only +13 and he is clearly the offensive leader. Even as an older player in the USHL to be that much of the offensive leader means attention from other teams. At 185 he is already close to the typical UNH playing weight for a player his size.

Foegele – True freshman hasn’t turned 18 yet (an April Fool…), 6’-1” 182, team leader and league leader in scoring a goal scorer. Young and seems a bit light for height. However the stat that jumps out is goals. He is scoring more than a goal a game and 3 times the goals as assists, is the league leader in goals almost 2 to 1 with 1 fewer game. In the playoffs is a goal a game player. Size a nose for the net is why he is rising so quickly. Question the competition.

Salvaggio – Will be 19 coming in turn 20 early in freshman year, 6-1” 194, 9th in scoring on his team, 5th in goals, bottom 3rd in +-. In points has shown scoring growth over last year but played 3 times the games, so he is actually a little down. Mostly that is on assists. His plus minus is low so you question the defensive side of his game.

[JB]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

Umile's history is to play upper class players early and take time with the Freshman. I think it is why UNH is quick out the gate (typically) but dies down the stretch as other teams high end freshman come up to speed.

I like Gaudreault/Hill/Thrush/Correale/MacDonald as 3rd/4th line grinders, checkers, energy guys that can play well defensively and throw in some scoring.

So I take Downing/Willows/Kelleher throw them together with some combo of McNicholas, Poturalski and Foegele/Eiserman early on and take my lumps. Hope is in the second half you get the payback. Always being mindful of player confidence and that maybe one or more of these 4 need a game off here and there to watch from above.

I would be surprised if Salvaggio cracks the line up year one.

Just me.

[norbert]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

In regards to Pesce, take it for what it is worth but his father said he was coming back. I saw his parents Friday post game with the Sorkin's and started talking about it. He said the plan was to come back. Could be just lip service to not give his hand away, but guessing a draft pick with his skill he would have been asked by Carolina to report by now if he was leaving.

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

Of course this won't be "shook out" til sometime in April (team banquet?) but hows 'bout some speculation for captains for next season? Here's mine FWIW dept:

Willows C Downing A De Smith A Pesce could be in that list possibly...? Here's hoping we see Brett back with the 'Cats!

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2014 Post-Season Thread: "Maybe Dick" Hunts the Great White Whale

It's always been fascinating to me to see who emerges from the Spring as the designated leaders for next year's team. And while we as fans often think of the more obvious, high profile players as the likely choices ... it seems more often than not there are surprises when captains are announced. A few thoughts on what I'll be looking for ...

* Unless there is an earlier signing, this might be our first indication whether Agosta will be returning;
* I wouldn't be shocked if Casey Thrush or Jay Camper (grinder types) ended up with at least an "A";
* I'd be kinda surprised to see DeSmith with an "A". His back-up got an "A" last year; why not him?
* I think HockeyRef is on the right track with Pesce, who might get an "A" for loyalty IF he returns;
* It would not be TOO surprising if either Downing or Willows did NOT get the "C" (see above).

We'll find out soon enough.