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JB
02-17-2014, 11:28 PM
Ok, Todd hasn’t posted yet and doesn’t appear to have any activity since last March. So I am going to give it a go as I always liked this post. Since Todd didn’t post it I had to figure it out myself if I wanted to see the information.

BC 31 – 37 [1]
--- Quarter-Final Home Lock - (Top 4) ---
--- Quarter-Final Lock - (Top 5) ---
UML 22-30 [2-7]
ME 20-28 [2-8]
UNH 20-24 [2-7]
--- Quarter-Final Lock - 20 w/ ND tb / 21 w/o (Top 5) ---
NU 19-27[2-8]
--- 1st round Home Lock – 17 w BU tb, 18 /o (6, 7 & 8) ---
PC 16-24 [2-9]
ND 14-20 [5-10]
UVM 14-22[2-11]
--- Top 4 Eligible - ---
--- Top 5 Eligible - ---
UMA 11-15 [7-11]
BU 9-17 [6-11]
MC 6-14 [8-11]
--- 1st round Home Eligible – 14 UVM ---

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC – UML, @UML, ND
UML - @BC, BC, @UVM, @UVM
ME - @NU, @NU, PC, PC
UNH – OFF, OFF,@MC, @MC
NU – ME, ME, @BU, BU
PC – UMA, @UMA, @ME, @ME
ND – BU, BU, BC
UVM - @MC, @MC, UML, UML
UMA - @PC, @PC, OFF, OFF
BU - @ND, @ND, NU, @NU
MC – UVM, UVM, UNH, UNH

First a few rules changes:
1) Everybody gets a trophy and makes the playoffs
2) Top 5 skip the “first” round
3) Bottom 6 play one game elimination at the higher seed, to fill out the quarter finals.
So we get a couple more “lines”. Also since there are 11 teams somebody is off each of the last two weekends. Additionally because of Frozen Fenway there are teams with odd number of games left. It is a nice mess with 2 team having just 2 games, 2 teams with 3 games, and the other 7 with 4.

The easy part – those jackwagons from BC have been kicking all our teams *****e$ this year and have wrapped up the league regular season.

Now the mess – from the bottom up - for now: Nobody is eliminated from hosting some sort of playoff game.

If MC wins out and UVM loses out then MC will take the tie break and can pass UVM. MC can get as far as a tie with ND but has already lost that tie break. In a three way tie ND 2-1-1, MC 2-1-1, UVM 1-3, I think it breaks as follows. Todd has gone into long checks of top down or bottom up, I can’t remember all the conclusions but this looks right with ND winning H2H with MC. So MC can get as far as 8th and host in the first round.

If BU wins out they can get to 17 points. Everybody from PC gets to no more that PC’s current 16, BU can pass them all to get to 6th. However NU 19 points and 5th are already out of reach.

UMA with only two games left is fairly easy they can’t catch PC for 6th.

Therefore BU, MC and UMA are all locked into somewhere in the play in round.

Now we get to the messy middle, where teams can float from home ice in the quarters to on the round in the 1st round.

UVM by points can get to 2nd place tie with UML and that means UVM would have to sweep UML and take the tie breaker. ME, NU and PC play each other so if PC sweeps Maine and drops 2 to UMA they get to 20 but either ME with 1 win or two ties or NU with at least a win and a tie must get to 22 points. So for UVM to tie UML it will be 3-way either UVM 3-1-0, ME 1-2-1, UML 0-3-1 or NU 4-0, UVM 2-2, UML 2-2. In the first with Maine UVM gets 2nd.

ND with only 3 games left can get to 20 and is not able to catch UML, one of NU or ME must exceed the ND 20 max and UNH has the head to head tie break. ME also has the tie break, by virtue of the 3rd tie break record again UML. Head to Head with NU, ND would win 3rd tie break with a better record again BC. There are a bunch of there-way ties UNH-ME-ND, UNH-ND-NU, UNH-ND-PC etc. But the best I can see for ND is to get by NU into 5th. In most ties ND ends up 5th or 6th .

For now I am out of time and will need to spend some time with PC, NU, UNH, ME and UML. A few thoughts – UNH wins out they likely finishes no worse than 5th. PC can tie but would lose tie breaker #2 conference wins. In the PC 3 way ties with UNH I think UNH only is passed by PC in the 3-way with UML… So UNH basically controls its fate to 5th but not exactly…

UNHHKYRKS
02-18-2014, 04:17 AM
Thanks JB, this is always one of my favorite threads of the year and I had been keeping my eye out for it for a while!

Aerman
02-18-2014, 08:56 AM
UMA 11-15 [7-11]
--- 1st round Home Lock - (6, 7 & 8) ---Ö

Great work JB - thanks.

The lines above seem out of sort to me, but maybe I misunderstand. If ZooMass can still finish nine through eleven, shouldn't they be below the 6/7/8 lock line?

The middle is a HUGE mess, but aside from causing headaches attempting to sort out the possibilities of the interlocking schedules, it should keep us all tuned in over these last two weeks! :)

JB
02-18-2014, 11:01 AM
The lines above seem out of sort to me, but maybe I misunderstand. If ZooMass can still finish nine through eleven, shouldn't they be below the 6/7/8 lock line?

Thanks, I fixed it. I had that line on there twice. I must have copied it instead of moving it.



The middle is a HUGE mess, but aside from causing headaches attempting to sort out the possibilities of the interlocking schedules, it should keep us all tuned in over these last two weeks! :)

I have a thought on how to work on it. The real interlocking piece is Maine, Northeastern and Providence. So I am thinking of looking at the limits of these three. If the schedules were not interlocked there would be 24 points available amongst the 3 but in reality there are only 16 and those "lost" 8 points could be big in this tight a standings.

Lastly I am sure I have issues with 3-way ties. I have to go back and read Todds posts because at this point I can't remember if it is top down or bottom up... I just remember lots of information about both.

Patronick
02-18-2014, 04:49 PM
I believe (and please correct me if I've missed something) that Lowell locks up a home ice spot with two more points. It would give them 24 points with BC ahead, NU and ME able to jump them and UNH being able to tie at best. Lowell holds the tiebreaker over UNH.

bsaeagle64
02-18-2014, 05:42 PM
FWIW, NU has the head-to-head Tiebreaker over UML, MC, PC and UVM.

CollegeHockeyRinkReport
02-18-2014, 05:59 PM
I believe (and please correct me if I've missed something) that Lowell locks up a home ice spot with two more points. It would give them 24 points with BC ahead, NU and ME able to jump them and UNH being able to tie at best. Lowell holds the tiebreaker over UNH.

That is correct. Obviously some people don't like each team making the league playoffs, but I think it's a new excitement to see who gets the byes, etc. Avoiding a single elimination first round is key. A hot goalie can do damage in Hockey East.

JB
02-19-2014, 11:50 PM
I believe (and please correct me if I've missed something) that Lowell locks up a home ice spot with two more points. It would give them 24 points with BC ahead, NU and ME able to jump them and UNH being able to tie at best. Lowell holds the tiebreaker over UNH.

I would say 3 points for sure. At 24 points you can end up in 3 and two different 4way ties.

jcarter7669
02-20-2014, 07:55 AM
That is correct. Obviously some people don't like each team making the league playoffs, but I think it's a new excitement to see who gets the byes, etc. Avoiding a single elimination first round is key. A hot goalie can do damage in Hockey East.

It's the least exciting thing in HE. When MC upsets PC then maybe you we can talk about how it added a level of excitement but outside of you ( and teams 9-11) I know of no other person that is "excited" about every team making the playoffs...

claver2010
02-20-2014, 08:13 AM
That is correct. Obviously some people don't like each team making the league playoffs, but I think it's a new excitement to see who gets the byes, etc. Avoiding a single elimination first round is key. A hot goalie can do damage in Hockey East.

Everyone getting a participation ribbon sucks

JB
02-20-2014, 12:51 PM
Think of how much more exciting the last 3 weeks of the regular season are when teams know only 8 make the playoffs and the made scramble not to be eliminated.

JB
02-22-2014, 12:28 AM
BC 33 – 37 [1]
--- Quarter-Final Home Lock - (Top 4) ---
--- Quarter-Final Lock - (Top 5) ---
UML 22-28 [2-7]
ME 21-27 [2-7]
UNH 20-24 [2-7]
--- Quarter-Final Lock - 20 w/ ND tb / 21 w/o (Top 5) ---
NU 20-26[2-8]
PC 18-24 [2-8]
UVM 16-22[2-8]
--- Top 4 Eligible - ---
ND 16-20 [5-8]
--- Top 5 Eligible - ---
--- 1st round Home Lock – 15 w BU tb, 16 w/o ---
UMA 11-13 [9-11]
BU 9-15 [9-11]
MC 6-12 [9-11]


Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC – @UML, ND
UML - BC, @UVM, @UVM
ME - @NU, PC, PC
UNH – OFF,@MC, @MC
NU – ME, @BU, BU
PC – @UMA, @ME, @ME
ND – BU, BC
UVM - @MC, UML, UML
UMA - @PC, OFF, OFF
BU - @ND, NU, @NU
MC – UVM, UNH, UNH

Ok we have some more separation, the bottom 3 are now defined as UMA, BU and MC can’t catch any of the upper 8.

ND still can’t get top four because they can’t catch UML or ME and UNH win the tie breaker. ND can catch NU. There is the remote possibility with some crazy 3 or 4 way tie at 20 they could slide to 4th but I haven’t found it. Therefore I say they can’t reach 4th.

Remember UVM and UML play twice so that tie breaker is still in the air. NU plays ME one more time and ME plays PC twice. That means 10 points are still split between teams.

Let’s start with NU and ME, one of those teams must get to at least 22 points tomorrow night. But this still doesn’t affect anybody else officially as UVM holds the tie break with NU.

PC and ME also share 4 points. But again everything is so tight 2-6 I don’t see how anybody is eliminated yet by this fact.

SwedishJustice22
02-22-2014, 01:21 AM
Hey all. Since us Irish fans are all new to this stuff (format is much more exciting than the old CCHA one imo) I'm just trying to figure out a simple question. Im not good with this tie-break stuff. So ND has a good chance at hosting a Sudden Death game, but do we have any chance at hosting a Best of 3 round? The answer is probably here but I must have missed it. Thanks for all your help. Its been nice to enjoy our first season with a conference of all real, competitive teams

sigx15
02-22-2014, 01:53 AM
Hey all. Since us Irish fans are all new to this stuff (format is much more exciting than the old CCHA one imo) I'm just trying to figure out a simple question. Im not good with this tie-break stuff. So ND has a good chance at hosting a Sudden Death game, but do we have any chance at hosting a Best of 3 round? The answer is probably here but I must have missed it. Thanks for all your help. Its been nice to enjoy our first season with a conference of all real, competitive teams

Welcome to HE playoffs Swede. It's not possible for them to host a best of 3 series, the best case scenario for them is to finish 5th which would give them a bye but the 4 seed would still be the host school.

Their max # of points for ND is 20 which would put them in a tie with Northeastern and UNH if both lose out. They lose in the tie breaker to UNH because of the head to head. Then with Northeastern it's a wash head to head, then conference wins which they'd be tied for, then the next tie breaker is record against 1st place team which would give Notre Dame the win if they win out and beat BC in the last game of the season. I'll let you do the tiebreakers for yourself if Providence and UVM are tied too. Better hope BC starts Barone in the last game, who's actually a decent goalie in his own right.

SwedishJustice22
02-22-2014, 03:37 AM
Welcome to HE playoffs Swede. It's not possible for them to host a best of 3 series, the best case scenario for them is to finish 5th which would give them a bye but the 4 seed would still be the host school.

Their max # of points for ND is 20 which would put them in a tie with Northeastern and UNH if both lose out. They lose in the tie breaker to UNH because of the head to head. Then with Northeastern it's a wash head to head, then conference wins which they'd be tied for, then the next tie breaker is record against 1st place team which would give Notre Dame the win if they win out and beat BC in the last game of the season. I'll let you do the tiebreakers for yourself if Providence and UVM are tied too. Better hope BC starts Barone in the last game, who's actually a decent goalie in his own right.

Appreciate it. Ill just let it play out for itself and take what I can get. A few weeks ago the ND faithful were thinking that we might not even host a playoff game. Thats a drastic change from hosting a Quarterfinal game every year in the CCHA, so we will take a one game if that's what we get. I only speak for myself in this, but I was critical of the move to Hockey East. We strongly recruit from Chicago and westward, plus geography said that the NCHA should have been the conference we took. After this season though I'm glad we found our way to HE. We already know we will face some struggles, as the quality of play is greater than anything the CCHA showed you (as a total whole at least), but we look forward to the challenge and the new rivalries that have already started to be nurtured.

Todd
02-22-2014, 09:11 PM
How time flies...

Hey guys, sorry for the late arrival. Thanks to JB for starting the thread this year.

Coming into the season, I was really looking forward to writing about this year's race because there was so much to go over. Especially considering the big changes and the absolute uniqueness of the playoff format and schedule this year.

The next thing I know, I realize it's Super Bowl / Beanpot weekend and we haven't started yet. I could blame the disorientation on seven fewer league games, but I won't. Then it's Beanpot Finals weekend. Then Presidents' Day. Along the way, there's a new job with 12-hour-plus days, helping with a Python class on weekends, presenting at an out-of town conference, and storm-induced flight changes - all draining away time.

Still there are a few games left, so, without further ado, here are some notes that I hadn't had time to polish up until now. Some of this repeats what has been posted, or is obvious by now, but rather than losing more time to edits, here's the whole shootin' match:

First off: if you're new to this thread, it's an annual tracking of the Hockey East playoff race. As the thread title states, it's simply by the numbers. No prognostication. No woofing. Just math and some context and insight as provided by all of us. For more, I invite you to check out the intros from prior years. I started doing this in 2003 or 2004, I believe, so this is around the 11th or 12th version of the thread.

For returning readers, adding an 11th team radically (and probably irrevocably) changes the playoff format, and our benchmarks. In past years, HE has been the only league to use the regular season results to actually eliminate a team or two from the post-season.

That all changes this year.

With the league expanding to 11 teams for a year, then to 12 next year, that leads to two major changes:
1) the number of inter-league games drops;
2) the decision was made to add a round to the playoffs and include everyone.

1) Hockey East has historically scheduled three games each season between league opponents, with the exception of just three four-games-each seasons. However, 11 teams means 10 opponents, so three-games each means 30 games. That takes up too much of the cap-limited schedule. So, this season, HE drops down to two games per leaguemate, for 20 league games each. Since UConn's arrival next year adds another pair of league games, bumping the total to 22, this season will uniquely have the fewest number of games on the league schedule in the history of the league.

For those not familiar with the history, when Hockey East started, there were 7 teams in the league. These were the years of the interlocking schedule with the WCHA. The first two years of the league had each HE team playing the other HE teams 3 times and the WCHA teams twice, with all games counting in league standings. When the HE-WCHA games dropped to one each per opponent in 86-87, HE upped intra-league play to four-games-per to fill out the schedule. For the 92-93 and 93-94 seasons, HE again jumped up to four-games-each. Now, and for the foreseeable future, it will be two apiece.

2) It has been rumored that the UMA upset of BC in HE's only prior play-in (8v9) - between two teams with vastly different records - had a hand in leaving the teams seeded beyond 8 out of the race. That year, 1995, the race was very close for 6-7-8. UMass was not only a newcomer to the league, but also a returnee to D1 hockey after along absence. UMA had 1/3 the points that BC - who narrowly dropped to 8 - did, yet prevailed 5-4 at BC's Kelley Rink for only their 4th win against the league that year. After that, the league dropped the play-in round and let the sometimes far-behind 9 or 9-and-10 teams be the first teams in the country to end their seasons. Sometimes that seemed merciful. More often, it provided for real drama, as the difference between 8 and 9 was not post-season opponent, but post-season existence.

Most playoff brackets follow a powers-of-two rule. However many teams enter, at some point you need to have a final with two teams. Prior rounds match up pairs of teams, eliminating half (the losers) each time. That leads to 1 champ, 2 finalists, 4 semi-finalists, 8 quarter-finalists, and so on. With fewer than 16 teams, you need to find a way to get down to 8 to get into this kind of bracket.

With nine - and even ten - teams, dropping teams below 8 was the decision. With twelve teams on the horizon, dropping a third of the league at the end of the regular season apparently seemed to be too much. That then leaves Hockey East with the need to drop three teams in the playoffs in order to narrow the field to eight for the classic binary bracket. That means the bottom three play the next three in 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9 games. That gives the top five teams a bye. Next year, the bottom four will play the middle four (adding a 5-12 game), with the top four getting byes. This year's format leads to the highly unusual situation where the 5th place team gets a bye, but doesn't get a home game - while the next three below them do. It also means that 4 knows it will host 5 in the quarterfinals, but 1, 2, and 3 will have to await the first round results and reseeding to determine their opponents.

Given these changes, I'm thinking that next year, we should change the thread name to "Hockey East - Byes, Home, and Travel: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition".

For those that were concerned about my absence, for the last few years, I almost exclusively post only in this thread, so my not having posted since March has become the norm.

Chickens@NU
02-22-2014, 10:44 PM
Letís start with NU and ME, one of those teams must get to at least 22 points tomorrow night. But this still doesnít affect anybody else officially as UVM holds the tie break with NU.


NU holds the tiebreaker against UVM, not the other way around. The game that UVM won against NU was non conference.

CollegeHockeyRinkReport
02-23-2014, 03:18 AM
http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2014/2/23/5438568/hockey-east-standings-playoff-picture-tournament-possibilities-pairwise-rankings

Certainly not as comprehensive as anything Todd used to do, but standings with remaining games, Pairwise outlook, some scenarios and what we do know.

FiveHole12
02-23-2014, 06:32 AM
How time flies...

Hey guys, sorry for the late arrival. Thanks to JB for starting the thread this year.

Coming into the season, I was really looking forward to writing about this year's race because there was so much to go over. Especially considering the big changes and the absolute uniqueness of the playoff format and schedule this year.

The next thing I know, I realize it's Super Bowl / Beanpot weekend and we haven't started yet. I could blame the disorientation on seven fewer league games, but I won't. Then it's Beanpot Finals weekend. Then Presidents' Day. Along the way, there's a new job with 12-hour-plus days, helping with a Python class on weekends, presenting at an out-of town conference, and storm-induced flight changes - all draining away time.

Still there are a few games left, so, without further ado, here are some notes that I hadn't had time to polish up until now. Some of this repeats what has been posted, or is obvious by now, but rather than losing more time to edits, here's the whole shootin' match:

First off: if you're new to this thread, it's an annual tracking of the Hockey East playoff race. As the thread title states, it's simply by the numbers. No prognostication. No woofing. Just math and some context and insight as provided by all of us. For more, I invite you to check out the intros from prior years. I started doing this in 2003 or 2004, I believe, so this is around the 11th or 12th version of the thread.

For returning readers, adding an 11th team radically (and probably irrevocably) changes the playoff format, and our benchmarks. In past years, HE has been the only league to use the regular season results to actually eliminate a team or two from the post-season.

That all changes this year.

With the league expanding to 11 teams for a year, then to 12 next year, that leads to two major changes:
1) the number of inter-league games drops;
2) the decision was made to add a round to the playoffs and include everyone.

1) Hockey East has historically scheduled three games each season between league opponents, with the exception of just three four-games-each seasons. However, 11 teams means 10 opponents, so three-games each means 30 games. That takes up too much of the cap-limited schedule. So, this season, HE drops down to two games per leaguemate, for 20 league games each. Since UConn's arrival next year adds another pair of league games, bumping the total to 22, this season will uniquely have the fewest number of games on the league schedule in the history of the league.

For those not familiar with the history, when Hockey East started, there were 7 teams in the league. These were the years of the interlocking schedule with the WCHA. The first two years of the league had each HE team playing the other HE teams 3 times and the WCHA teams twice, with all games counting in league standings. When the HE-WCHA games dropped to one each per opponent in 86-87, HE upped intra-league play to four-games-per to fill out the schedule. For the 92-93 and 93-94 seasons, HE again jumped up to four-games-each. Now, and for the foreseeable future, it will be two apiece.

2) It has been rumored that the UMA upset of BC in HE's only prior play-in (8v9) - between two teams with vastly different records - had a hand in leaving the teams seeded beyond 8 out of the race. That year, 1995, the race was very close for 6-7-8. UMass was not only a newcomer to the league, but also a returnee to D1 hockey after along absence. UMA had 1/3 the points that BC - who narrowly dropped to 8 - did, yet prevailed 5-4 at BC's Kelley Rink for only their 4th win against the league that year. After that, the league dropped the play-in round and let the sometimes far-behind 9 or 9-and-10 teams be the first teams in the country to end their seasons. Sometimes that seemed merciful. More often, it provided for real drama, as the difference between 8 and 9 was not post-season opponent, but post-season existence.

Most playoff brackets follow a powers-of-two rule. However many teams enter, at some point you need to have a final with two teams. Prior rounds match up pairs of teams, eliminating half (the losers) each time. That leads to 1 champ, 2 finalists, 4 semi-finalists, 8 quarter-finalists, and so on. With fewer than 16 teams, you need to find a way to get down to 8 to get into this kind of bracket.

With nine - and even ten - teams, dropping teams below 8 was the decision. With twelve teams on the horizon, dropping a third of the league at the end of the regular season apparently seemed to be too much. That then leaves Hockey East with the need to drop three teams in the playoffs in order to narrow the field to eight for the classic binary bracket. That means the bottom three play the next three in 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9 games. That gives the top five teams a bye. Next year, the bottom four will play the middle four (adding a 5-12 game), with the top four getting byes. This year's format leads to the highly unusual situation where the 5th place team gets a bye, but doesn't get a home game - while the next three below them do. It also means that 4 knows it will host 5 in the quarterfinals, but 1, 2, and 3 will have to await the first round results and reseeding to determine their opponents.

Given these changes, I'm thinking that next year, we should change the thread name to "Hockey East - Byes, Home, and Travel: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition".

For those that were concerned about my absence, for the last few years, I almost exclusively post only in this thread, so my not having posted since March has become the norm.
Welcome back Todd.

JB
02-23-2014, 10:01 AM
BC 34 – 36 [1]
--- Quarter-Final Home Lock - (Top 4) ---
--- Quarter-Final Lock - (Top 5) ---
UML 23-27 [2-6]
NU 22-26[2-7]
ME 21-25 [2-7]
UNH 20-24 [2-7]
PC 20-24 [2-8]
UVM 18-22[4-8]
--- Top 4 Eligible - ---
--- Top 5 Eligible - ---
ND 18-20 [6-8]
--- 1st round Home Lock – 15 w BU tb, 16 w/o ---
UMA 11 [9-10]
BU 9-13 [9-11]
MC 6-10 [10-11]


Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC – ND
UML - @UVM, @UVM
ME - PC, PC
UNH – @MC, @MC
NU – @BU, BU
PC – @ME, @ME
ND – BC
UVM - UML, UML
UMA - OFF
BU - NU, @NU
MC – UNH, UNH

We are down to one weekend to go and the only thing we know is BC is in 1st, which we have known for a bit.

The bottom 3 is established but the order is unknown. UMA is done with the regular season but they can’t finish last, there point total is above MC max.

I said after Friday ND can’t get to 4th unless c=some crazy 3 or 4 way tie I hadn’t found. Well now ND can’t get to 4th by points. They can get to a tie in 5th but that tie would have to be 3-way with UNH & PC or four way by adding UVM.

In ties I am going to do top down because I think that is the way they are breaking ties these days. I went back to the old thread got a headache and came out believing it is top up…

In a 3 way tie the records would be UNH 3-1, PC 2-2 and ND 1-3, so either elevating the top or dropping the bottom ND can’t be 5th, this scenario ND is 6th winning 3rd tiebreaker against PC. In a 4-way tie the records are PC 4-2, UNH 3-3, UVM 3-3, ND 2-4, so again either elevating the top or dropping the bottom ND can’t be 5th. Once PC is elevated the 3-way tie ends as UVM 3-1, UNH 2-2, ND 1-3, UVM is 6th that leaves UNH 7th and ND 8th. Therefore ND can’t get a bye and will be hosting a 1st round game but can still get to 6th.

Since Maine and PC play each other those 4 points have to be given out with the possibilities of ME-25/ PC-20, ME-24/PC-21, ME 23/PC-22, PC-23/ME-22, PC-24/ME-21. This means the 3rd place team will have 23 points. My crappy way of explaining this is the lowest high number in those 5 sets is 23…

The last thing I think we can do on this is the crazy tie situation at 22 points. There are 2 potential 4 ways ties at 22, as can be seen above ME or PC can be involved in 4-way ties at 22 but not both and this tie would be for 4th in either case UML is above and one of either ME or PC would be above the 22 point mark.

NU 3-2-1 4th
UNH 3-3 1-3 1-1 6th
UVM 3-3 3-1 5th
ME 2-3-1 2-2 1-1 7th

This is a top up bottom down case. As noted before I am going top up. Bottom down isa weird as after Maine is eliminated the other 3 end up at 2-2, and the tie break can’t yet be determined.

Record Wins
NU 3-2-1 10
PC 3-2-1 9-10
UNH 3-3 10-11
UVM 2-4 11

This mess is harder to break. Bottom down it would probably be easier. Top up simultaneously is a challenge unless you elevate NU & PC and compare those two the wins in league are yet to be determined. I would leave this mess for Todd to explain…

P.S. I can't remember how to get table formating to work so the tables above are a total mess.