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Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
How time flies...
Hey guys, sorry for the late arrival. Thanks to JB for starting the thread this year.
Coming into the season, I was really looking forward to writing about this year's race because there was so much to go over. Especially considering the big changes and the absolute uniqueness of the playoff format and schedule this year.
The next thing I know, I realize it's Super Bowl / Beanpot weekend and we haven't started yet. I could blame the disorientation on seven fewer league games, but I won't. Then it's Beanpot Finals weekend. Then Presidents' Day. Along the way, there's a new job with 12-hour-plus days, helping with a Python class on weekends, presenting at an out-of town conference, and storm-induced flight changes - all draining away time.
Still there are a few games left, so, without further ado, here are some notes that I hadn't had time to polish up until now. Some of this repeats what has been posted, or is obvious by now, but rather than losing more time to edits, here's the whole shootin' match:
First off: if you're new to this thread, it's an annual tracking of the Hockey East playoff race. As the thread title states, it's simply by the numbers. No prognostication. No woofing. Just math and some context and insight as provided by all of us. For more, I invite you to check out the intros from prior years. I started doing this in 2003 or 2004, I believe, so this is around the 11th or 12th version of the thread.
For returning readers, adding an 11th team radically (and probably irrevocably) changes the playoff format, and our benchmarks. In past years, HE has been the only league to use the regular season results to actually eliminate a team or two from the post-season.
That all changes this year.
With the league expanding to 11 teams for a year, then to 12 next year, that leads to two major changes:
1) the number of inter-league games drops;
2) the decision was made to add a round to the playoffs and include everyone.
1) Hockey East has historically scheduled three games each season between league opponents, with the exception of just three four-games-each seasons. However, 11 teams means 10 opponents, so three-games each means 30 games. That takes up too much of the cap-limited schedule. So, this season, HE drops down to two games per leaguemate, for 20 league games each. Since UConn's arrival next year adds another pair of league games, bumping the total to 22, this season will uniquely have the fewest number of games on the league schedule in the history of the league.
For those not familiar with the history, when Hockey East started, there were 7 teams in the league. These were the years of the interlocking schedule with the WCHA. The first two years of the league had each HE team playing the other HE teams 3 times and the WCHA teams twice, with all games counting in league standings. When the HE-WCHA games dropped to one each per opponent in 86-87, HE upped intra-league play to four-games-per to fill out the schedule. For the 92-93 and 93-94 seasons, HE again jumped up to four-games-each. Now, and for the foreseeable future, it will be two apiece.
2) It has been rumored that the UMA upset of BC in HE's only prior play-in (8v9) - between two teams with vastly different records - had a hand in leaving the teams seeded beyond 8 out of the race. That year, 1995, the race was very close for 6-7-8. UMass was not only a newcomer to the league, but also a returnee to D1 hockey after along absence. UMA had 1/3 the points that BC - who narrowly dropped to 8 - did, yet prevailed 5-4 at BC's Kelley Rink for only their 4th win against the league that year. After that, the league dropped the play-in round and let the sometimes far-behind 9 or 9-and-10 teams be the first teams in the country to end their seasons. Sometimes that seemed merciful. More often, it provided for real drama, as the difference between 8 and 9 was not post-season opponent, but post-season existence.
Most playoff brackets follow a powers-of-two rule. However many teams enter, at some point you need to have a final with two teams. Prior rounds match up pairs of teams, eliminating half (the losers) each time. That leads to 1 champ, 2 finalists, 4 semi-finalists, 8 quarter-finalists, and so on. With fewer than 16 teams, you need to find a way to get down to 8 to get into this kind of bracket.
With nine - and even ten - teams, dropping teams below 8 was the decision. With twelve teams on the horizon, dropping a third of the league at the end of the regular season apparently seemed to be too much. That then leaves Hockey East with the need to drop three teams in the playoffs in order to narrow the field to eight for the classic binary bracket. That means the bottom three play the next three in 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9 games. That gives the top five teams a bye. Next year, the bottom four will play the middle four (adding a 5-12 game), with the top four getting byes. This year's format leads to the highly unusual situation where the 5th place team gets a bye, but doesn't get a home game - while the next three below them do. It also means that 4 knows it will host 5 in the quarterfinals, but 1, 2, and 3 will have to await the first round results and reseeding to determine their opponents.
Given these changes, I'm thinking that next year, we should change the thread name to "Hockey East - Byes, Home, and Travel: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition".
For those that were concerned about my absence, for the last few years, I almost exclusively post only in this thread, so my not having posted since March has become the norm.
How time flies...
Hey guys, sorry for the late arrival. Thanks to JB for starting the thread this year.
Coming into the season, I was really looking forward to writing about this year's race because there was so much to go over. Especially considering the big changes and the absolute uniqueness of the playoff format and schedule this year.
The next thing I know, I realize it's Super Bowl / Beanpot weekend and we haven't started yet. I could blame the disorientation on seven fewer league games, but I won't. Then it's Beanpot Finals weekend. Then Presidents' Day. Along the way, there's a new job with 12-hour-plus days, helping with a Python class on weekends, presenting at an out-of town conference, and storm-induced flight changes - all draining away time.
Still there are a few games left, so, without further ado, here are some notes that I hadn't had time to polish up until now. Some of this repeats what has been posted, or is obvious by now, but rather than losing more time to edits, here's the whole shootin' match:
First off: if you're new to this thread, it's an annual tracking of the Hockey East playoff race. As the thread title states, it's simply by the numbers. No prognostication. No woofing. Just math and some context and insight as provided by all of us. For more, I invite you to check out the intros from prior years. I started doing this in 2003 or 2004, I believe, so this is around the 11th or 12th version of the thread.
For returning readers, adding an 11th team radically (and probably irrevocably) changes the playoff format, and our benchmarks. In past years, HE has been the only league to use the regular season results to actually eliminate a team or two from the post-season.
That all changes this year.
With the league expanding to 11 teams for a year, then to 12 next year, that leads to two major changes:
1) the number of inter-league games drops;
2) the decision was made to add a round to the playoffs and include everyone.
1) Hockey East has historically scheduled three games each season between league opponents, with the exception of just three four-games-each seasons. However, 11 teams means 10 opponents, so three-games each means 30 games. That takes up too much of the cap-limited schedule. So, this season, HE drops down to two games per leaguemate, for 20 league games each. Since UConn's arrival next year adds another pair of league games, bumping the total to 22, this season will uniquely have the fewest number of games on the league schedule in the history of the league.
For those not familiar with the history, when Hockey East started, there were 7 teams in the league. These were the years of the interlocking schedule with the WCHA. The first two years of the league had each HE team playing the other HE teams 3 times and the WCHA teams twice, with all games counting in league standings. When the HE-WCHA games dropped to one each per opponent in 86-87, HE upped intra-league play to four-games-per to fill out the schedule. For the 92-93 and 93-94 seasons, HE again jumped up to four-games-each. Now, and for the foreseeable future, it will be two apiece.
2) It has been rumored that the UMA upset of BC in HE's only prior play-in (8v9) - between two teams with vastly different records - had a hand in leaving the teams seeded beyond 8 out of the race. That year, 1995, the race was very close for 6-7-8. UMass was not only a newcomer to the league, but also a returnee to D1 hockey after along absence. UMA had 1/3 the points that BC - who narrowly dropped to 8 - did, yet prevailed 5-4 at BC's Kelley Rink for only their 4th win against the league that year. After that, the league dropped the play-in round and let the sometimes far-behind 9 or 9-and-10 teams be the first teams in the country to end their seasons. Sometimes that seemed merciful. More often, it provided for real drama, as the difference between 8 and 9 was not post-season opponent, but post-season existence.
Most playoff brackets follow a powers-of-two rule. However many teams enter, at some point you need to have a final with two teams. Prior rounds match up pairs of teams, eliminating half (the losers) each time. That leads to 1 champ, 2 finalists, 4 semi-finalists, 8 quarter-finalists, and so on. With fewer than 16 teams, you need to find a way to get down to 8 to get into this kind of bracket.
With nine - and even ten - teams, dropping teams below 8 was the decision. With twelve teams on the horizon, dropping a third of the league at the end of the regular season apparently seemed to be too much. That then leaves Hockey East with the need to drop three teams in the playoffs in order to narrow the field to eight for the classic binary bracket. That means the bottom three play the next three in 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9 games. That gives the top five teams a bye. Next year, the bottom four will play the middle four (adding a 5-12 game), with the top four getting byes. This year's format leads to the highly unusual situation where the 5th place team gets a bye, but doesn't get a home game - while the next three below them do. It also means that 4 knows it will host 5 in the quarterfinals, but 1, 2, and 3 will have to await the first round results and reseeding to determine their opponents.
Given these changes, I'm thinking that next year, we should change the thread name to "Hockey East - Byes, Home, and Travel: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition".
For those that were concerned about my absence, for the last few years, I almost exclusively post only in this thread, so my not having posted since March has become the norm.
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