Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

    Originally posted by gmann View Post
    BSU's season should end tonight or possibly tomorrow night. They don't deserve to be playing in the post season.
    Well, let's look at it. Bemidji's final three games are a home game against UAH (almost assuredly a win, especially after losing tonight) and two road games against Bowling Green. BG is really hung up right now, and a split seems pretty likely. Going 2-1 takes you to 11-13-4, 26 points. Now look at LSSU: they are now 12-13-0, but they are unlikely to win a game for the rest of the season. But for what it's worth, say that they get the split tomorrow night or pick off Ferris State next weekend. That would make them 13-15-0, also 26 points. But the Beavers have the 3-1-0 season series win, so they win any tiebreaker with the Lakers. Bemidji may slump to end the season, but the fact that they get UAH another time gives them a pretty decent shot at the playoffs, because the other team on the 8/9 line has its final games against the two best teams in the league.

    It will be hard for the Lakers to get ahead of the Beavers in points. Their max is 15-13-0, but that's pretty unlikely. In fact, a probabilistic model has the Lakers sweeping the Bulldogs around 0.02% of the time, which is as close to zero as you can get. It has about a 50% chance of a split against Ferris, and it has an 83% shot of a split with Mankato. If we're optimistic, the Lakers get to 14-14-0. (Getting to 14-13-1 is 0.03% getting a tie against Ferris, 6.42% against the Mavs.) But if you saw the Lakers tonight, you'd really doubt their ability to sweep the rest of their games. The most likely scenario is 13-15-0, and the Beavers can easily get to 26 points.

    I have not built a model that says how often a certain result set happens, that is 10,000 runs of what happens in the five games in Week 24. I'm going to try to get there by Tuesday, but I have school stuff to do. I really wish that I could spend all day tomorrow and Sunday on it because I really want to do it.

    As for the Siouxsports thing, I could probably do something like that. My goal for next season is something that self-iterates throughout the season, using some sort of regression model from the 2013-14 KRACH to an estimate for the 2014-15 numbers, and then letting the model iterate based on the probabilities from each run. It's ambitious, but I've been meaning to learn Python anyway.

    GFM
    Geof F. Morris
    UAH BSE MAE 2002
    UAHHockey.com

    Comment


    • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

      Some of the same thinking from above is here: http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/03/01...02-28-edition/ — this is all linkable and stuff.

      Laker fans should be rooting hard for UAH.

      GFM
      Geof F. Morris
      UAH BSE MAE 2002
      UAHHockey.com

      Comment


      • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

        The win by Alaska last night was the biggest win of the year if you ask me. And looking at the way things went, it would not surprise me for them to win again tonight. Boy would that throw a monkey wrench into things, especially if they swept next weekend.
        MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

        It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

        Comment


        • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

          Congrats to Huntsville.
          I saw it at BG earlier...they may not have much talent, but they certainly play with a lot of heart.
          Du hockey comme dans le temps!

          Comment


          • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

            Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
            The win by Alaska last night was the biggest win of the year if you ask me. And looking at the way things went, it would not surprise me for them to win again tonight. Boy would that throw a monkey wrench into things, especially if they swept next weekend.
            I think we'll see a more focused Ferris team tonight ... and no way they sweep next weekend. Thomas will have UAA ready. Word is the Ferris coach thinks Thomas should get coach of the year for the WCHA.
            Originally Posted by aparch
            I love the "UA_" comment. When I see it, I think of re-runs of Match Game, and Gene Rayburn going "U, A, Blank... UA blank"

            From ADN:

            "According to NCAA, the (UAF) hockey team used ineligible players in every game played from the 2007-08 season to the 2010-11 season. Over that span, the wins and ties will all become losses. 4 wins and 2 ties came against rival UAA".

            UAF is 56-86-12 vs. UAA.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Suze View Post
              Word is the Ferris coach thinks Thomas should get coach of the year for the WCHA.
              I would agree.
              FERRIS STATE UNIVERSITY: 2012 FROZEN FOUR


              God, that was fun...

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Suze View Post
                Thomas will have UAA ready.
                Rut roh.
                “We offer no apology for our location at 64 51’21’’ north latitude. We are building for the future and we are confident that well directed effort and education are the forces which make progress possible”

                —UA President Charles E. Bunnell, 1925

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Suze View Post
                  I think we'll see a more focused Ferris team tonight ... and no way they sweep next weekend. Thomas will have UAA ready. Word is the Ferris coach thinks Thomas should get coach of the year for the WCHA.
                  Guess UAA made the right coaching decision.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Hammer View Post
                    I would agree.
                    Second that!
                    Alaska - My Very Big Back Yard!!!!

                    Comment


                    • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                      Originally posted by Suze View Post
                      Word is the Ferris coach thinks Thomas should get coach of the year for the WCHA.
                      _airbanks occupants, the squatters of the frozen north will shriek that Coach Durham should be coach of the decade.
                      Alaska Dispatch .... Doyle Woody
                      UAF made the kind of hockey history on October 10th 2015 that no team wants to claim – the Nanooks became the first NCAA Division I victim of Arizona State.


                      Originally Posted by WeWantMore At least you guys have Packers colors.

                      I Must be Famous ....a School named their program after me

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Alaska Hockey View Post
                        _airbanks occupants, the squatters of the frozen north will shriek that Coach Durham should be coach of the decade.
                        Thomas should be coach of the year. He took a program dead in the muskeg and made something out of it. No complaints here.
                        “We offer no apology for our location at 64 51’21’’ north latitude. We are building for the future and we are confident that well directed effort and education are the forces which make progress possible”

                        —UA President Charles E. Bunnell, 1925

                        Comment


                        • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                          Originally posted by Squarebanks View Post
                          Thomas should be coach of the year. He took a program dead in the muskeg and made something out of it. No complaints here.
                          Seconded. Especially with all of the rookies.

                          Doesn't change the fact that I want to see them get railed next weekend.
                          Visit the Alaska Nanooks Hockey Blog at http://nanookhockey.blogspot.com

                          Comment


                          • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                            Originally posted by Squarebanks View Post
                            Thomas should be coach of the year. He took a program dead in the muskeg and made something out of it. No complaints here.
                            I agree, he's done what Pearson did two years ago, but did it without any expectation or name recognition.

                            Comment


                            • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                              We need the same results from last night, but Ferris needs to man up tonight.. :-)
                              Back in AK for good... 7/13/05

                              Comment


                              • Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

                                Originally posted by UAA Fan in Florida View Post
                                We need the same results from last night, but Ferris needs to man up tonight.. :-)
                                Agreed!
                                An hour ago things were not going our way.
                                Now my Live Scores link is down and I've suddenly got religion praying to the hockey gods for help.
                                ...............
                                Guess I didn't get religion soon enough
                                The purple cows were the only ones to come through so far
                                Last edited by Seawolf Fan; 03-01-2014, 08:46 PM.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X