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LakersFan
11-04-2013, 05:53 PM
For games played through November 3, 2013


Team Rating
1 Plattsburgh 3.21
2 Gustavus Adol. 2.37
3 Norwich 1.97
4 Middlebury 1.67
5 Bowdoin 1.65
6 Elmira 1.12
7 Saint Anselm 1.09
8 Amherst 1.08
9 St. Norbert 0.95
10 Wis-Superior 0.94

Complete rankings can be found here: http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/D3_Rankings.html

Full discloser: I am not a follower of the D-III games. Given the ever increasing number of D-III teams, I may have missed something. If something seems unusual, please let me know.

FAQ

Q. [Insert team here, like Middlebury] hasn't played a game yet. How can they be ranked?
A. The power of Bayesian statistics. Each team has a prior rating based on last year, so early season rankings are possible. As more games are played, the effect of the prior is reduced.

Q. Is home ice advantage included?
A. No. Although I have estimates of home ice advantage for both the entire division and for each team, they are not included in these rankings. It emulates the NCAA criteria in this respect.

Q. Is margin of victory (MOV) included?
A. No, just wins, losses, and ties. Again, the NCAA doesn't use margin of victory and since the games are low scoring, I haven't found a satisfactory way to include MOV.

Q. How do you include ties?
A. If you look at the web page, you will see how ties are included. In short, I estimate a region that includes a probability of a tie which is larger when the teams are closely ranked. No "tie is half a win, half a loss" simplification here.

Q. How does your method compare to RPI?
A. The two are very different. I think my system (and KRACH) are a much better reflection of the quality of teams as statistical models are used as opposed to arbitrary alegbra. But I am biased. Someday, I will do a really complete comparission of the methods.

claw
11-05-2013, 09:17 AM
Full discloser: I am not a follower of the D-III games. Given the ever increasing number of D-III teams, I may have missed something. If something seems unusual, please let me know.

FAQ

Q. [Insert team here, like Middlebury] hasn't played a game yet. How can they be ranked?
A. The power of Bayesian statistics. Each team has a prior rating based on last year, so early season rankings are possible. As more games are played, the effect of the prior is reduced.




I'm sure it's directly tied to the fact that the "prior rating" exists, and for a new team like Canton there can be no "prior rating" since they are a new program...but it does seem strange that they can end up where they are ahead of teams that won games...including the former new program that beat them twice this weekend.

Is there a way for a new program to start with a prior rating equal to the lowest one from the past season so that they essentially have to earn their way past other teams and aren't artificially buoyed by their lack of prior rating?

In the end, it's obviously not even close to a huge deal when you're dealing with one team and it's so early in the season too... it's just something that immediately jumped out at me as being noticeably odd.

LakersFan
11-05-2013, 09:14 PM
I'm sure it's directly tied to the fact that the "prior rating" exists, and for a new team like Canton there can be no "prior rating" since they are a new program...but it does seem strange that they can end up where they are ahead of teams that won games...including the former new program that beat them twice this weekend.

Thanks for pointing this out, as this is an error on my part. Collegehockeystat.net has Canton listed as "Canton" in the standings, but as "SUNY Canton" on the results pages. I use the results page to get results, but the standings page to get the names of teams. Since the were not the same, Stevenson was not even credited with the two wins over Canton.

That has been corrected and the wbepage has been updated (ingore the date as that is tied to the DI rankings). As you can see, Stevenson jumped to 11th based on those two wins. That is a little high and will correct itself as Canton's true rating is determined.

Thanks again for picking that up.

gojackets
11-06-2013, 11:03 AM
Along those same lines, Middlebury is rated 54th...which seems odd

LakersFan
11-06-2013, 03:16 PM
Along those same lines, Middlebury is rated 54th...which seems odd

OK, so there are THREE places in my code where team order matters, not two. I think I finally have it correct, as the top ten now matches the post below and SUNY Canton has a rating of around -.9.

gojackets
11-06-2013, 03:25 PM
Haha...you wouldn't want to **** of those Middlebury folks.

LakersFan
11-11-2013, 06:17 PM
For games played through November 10, 2013

No "Last Week" column since I had a little issue with SUNY Canton last week.


Team Rating
1 Plattsburgh 3.30
2 Norwich 2.09
3 Middlebury 1.67
4 Bowdoin 1.65
5 Wis-Superior 1.63
6 Gustavus Adol. 1.57
7 Elmira 1.45
8 Manhattanville 1.09
9 Amherst 1.08
10 Holy Cross 1.07

LakersFan
11-19-2013, 09:34 PM
For games played through November 17th, 2013


Team Rating Last Week
1 Plattsburgh 3.32 1
2 Norwich 2.38 2
3 Middlebury 1.98 3
4 Gustavus Adol. 1.70 6
5 Wis-Superior 1.69 5
6 Bowdoin 1.65 4
7 Elmira 1.64 7
8 Amherst 1.63 9
9 Wis-River Falls 1.23 NR
10 Holy Cross 1.07 10

gojackets
11-20-2013, 09:58 AM
For games played through November 17th, 2013


Team Rating Last Week
1 Plattsburgh 3.32 1
2 Norwich 2.38 2
3 Middlebury 1.98 3
4 Gustavus Adol. 1.70 6
5 Wis-Superior 1.69 5
6 Bowdoin 1.65 4
7 Elmira 1.64 7
8 Amherst 1.63 9
9 Wis-River Falls 1.23 NR
10 Holy Cross 1.07 10

I feel like I nitpick...how does River Falls lose two games to Stevens Point and move up in the rankings?

OnMAA
11-20-2013, 10:15 AM
I feel like I nitpick...how does River Falls lose two games to Stevens Point and move up in the rankings?

I can think of at least two reasons: (This is without looking at the results, just based on how the math works)
1 - Teams just ahead of them did worse
2 - Their past opponents all had good weeks, improving their opponents strength of results.

ARM
11-20-2013, 10:19 AM
I can think of at least two reasons: (This is without looking at the results, just based on how the math works)
1 - Teams just ahead of them did worse
2 - Their past opponents all had good weeks, improving their opponents strength of results.It would have to be the second reason, because River Falls would have showed up in the rankings last week if its Rutter rating had already been 1.23.

LakersFan
11-26-2013, 08:18 AM
I feel like I nitpick...how does River Falls lose two games to Stevens Point and move up in the rankings?

Because the code I have cobbled together doesn't like change. When the Wisconsin teams formed a new leagure, I missed the conference games. In order to make parsing team names into numbers easier, I use conference to shorten the list of games to sort through. I forgot to add in the new conference name, so it found the non-conference games but not the games played among themselves. Here are the updated results. All my fault.

For games played through Novemeber 24, 2013


Team Rating
1 Plattsburgh 3.35
2 Middlebury 2.58
3 Norwich 2.40
4 Elmira 1.78
5 Gustavus Adol. 1.54
6 Wis-Stevens Pt. 1.23
6 Wis-Superior 1.23
8 Saint Anselm 1.19
9 Amherst 1.16
10 Manhattanville 1.14

claw
11-30-2013, 11:21 PM
Because the code I have cobbled together doesn't like change. When the Wisconsin teams formed a new leagure, I missed the conference games. In order to make parsing team names into numbers easier, I use conference to shorten the list of games to sort through. I forgot to add in the new conference name, so it found the non-conference games but not the games played among themselves. Here are the updated results. All my fault.

For games played through Novemeber 24, 2013


Team Rating
1 Plattsburgh 3.35
2 Middlebury 2.58
3 Norwich 2.40
4 Elmira 1.78
5 Gustavus Adol. 1.54
6 Wis-Stevens Pt. 1.23
6 Wis-Superior 1.23
8 Saint Anselm 1.19
9 Amherst 1.16
10 Manhattanville 1.14


Is there still an issue with St.Benedict's? They are still showing a .00000 RPI which can't be correct

LakersFan
12-10-2013, 09:12 PM
For games played through December 8, 2013

These rankings inlcude the Saint Benedict fix, renamed over the summer from St. Benedict. Thanks for the heads-up claw.


Team Rating
1 Plattsburgh 2.83
2 Norwich 2.49
3 Middlebury 2.32
4 Elmira 1.71
5 Gustavus Adol. 1.60
6 Wis-Stevens Pt. 1.43
7 Amherst 1.34
8 Saint Anselm 1.29
9 Wis-River Falls 1.22
10 Wis-Superior 1.16

LakersFan
01-06-2014, 06:54 PM
For games played through Janaury 5. 2014


Team Rating
1 Plattsburgh 3.01
2 Middlebury 2.50
3 Norwich 2.32
4 Elmira 1.58
5 Wis-Stevens Pt. 1.41
6 Amherst 1.40
7 Saint Anselm 1.32
8 Wis-River Falls 1.29
9 Gustavus Adol. 1.27
10 St. Scholastica 1.04

LakersFan
01-13-2014, 08:37 PM
For games played through January 12, 2014


Team Rating Last Week
1 Plattsburgh 2.95 1
2 Norwich 2.14 3
3 Middlebury 2.06 2
4 Elmira 1.78 4
5 Amherst 1.61 6
6 Wis-Stevens Pt. 1.419 5
7 Wis-River Falls 1.417 8
8 Gustavus Adol 1.36 9
9 Saint Anselm 1.11 7
10 Bethel 1.00 NR

LakersFan
01-20-2014, 08:41 PM
For games played through January 20, 2013


Rank Team Rating Last Week
1 Plattsburgh 2.97 1
2 Norwich 2.16 2
3 Middlebury 2.10 3
4 Elmira 1.77 4
5 Amherst 1.59 5
6 Wis-River Falls 1.55 7
7 Wis-Stevens Pt. 1.49 6
8 Gustavus Adol 1.45 8
9 Saint Anselm 1.17 9
10 Wis-Superior 1.07 NR

claw
01-26-2014, 08:20 AM
For games played through January 20, 2013


Rank Team Rating Last Week
1 Plattsburgh 2.97 1
2 Norwich 2.16 2
3 Middlebury 2.10 3
4 Elmira 1.77 4
5 Amherst 1.59 5
6 Wis-River Falls 1.55 7
7 Wis-Stevens Pt. 1.49 6
8 Gustavus Adol 1.45 8
9 Saint Anselm 1.17 9
10 Wis-Superior 1.07 NR

Perhaps I've missed this elsewhere, but given that Sacred Heart plays their entire schedule against D3 schools other than a couple exhibition games, why aren't they included in these rankings?

Pick1
01-26-2014, 11:49 AM
Perhaps I've missed this elsewhere, but given that Sacred Heart plays their entire schedule against D3 schools other than a couple exhibition games, why aren't they included in these rankings?

Could it have something to do with their record? Overall Record: 3-12-5
Why would/should they be considered to be ranked in the top 10? Or top 20 for that matter?

claw
01-26-2014, 12:17 PM
Could it have something to do with their record? Overall Record: 3-12-5
Why would/should they be considered to be ranked in the top 10? Or top 20 for that matter?

They shouldnt but if you click the link the rankings include 55 other teams that play an entirely d2/d3 schedule.

He only posts the top 10 in the weekly update.

As it stands now in these rankings though its like any games sacred heart plays never actually happened.