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lugnut92
10-27-2013, 02:28 AM
Well everybody, with the ECAC schedule starting this Tuesday, we're ready for a new season of wildly ridiculous prognostications based on everybody's favorite retrodictive (NOT predictive) rating system, KRACH. Using KRACH, we can try to predict how many points a team will take in each game. Every team has played a game, so it's time to get underway.

Standings
1. Quinnipiac (32)
2t. RPI (31)
2t. Brown (31)
4. St. Lawrence (28)
-----
5. Cornell (25)
6. Clarkson (23)
7. Harvard (21)
8. Yale (20)
-----
9. Union (17)
10. Colgate (15)
11. Princeton (14)
12. Dartmouth (6)

(Rounding Error = -1)

Note: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. Also, for now, most teams don't have finite, real KRACH values. I've taken to calculating my own, and I'm getting around the problem with the hypothetical tie against a 100 team.

Now, in addition to the projected final point total standings, I have a burgie12 style projection of final ranks by Monte Carlo! Based on 1,000,000 simulations (which is obviously a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of the 955,004,950,796,825,236,893,190,701,774,414,011,91 9,935,138,974,343,129,836,853,841 different ways an ECAC season can play out):



| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 443.2 | 32.6 27.2 20.5 12.0 5.0 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 x | 2.39
RP | 429.8 | 32.7 26.4 20.0 12.3 5.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 x | 2.42
Br | 416.8 | 24.2 25.5 23.1 14.7 7.5 3.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 2.73
SL | 303.8 | 8.7 14.8 21.0 25.7 15.6 8.2 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 x | 3.77
Cr | 224.5 | 0.7 2.5 6.2 13.5 24.0 21.8 15.4 9.3 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 | 5.74
Ck | 185.7 | 0.8 2.5 5.7 11.6 19.0 21.8 17.3 11.6 6.3 2.5 0.7 0.0 | 5.99
Ya | 140.5 | 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.9 10.2 15.9 20.7 19.4 14.1 8.3 3.5 0.2 | 7.24
Ha | 157.6 | 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.6 8.6 14.1 18.8 20.4 16.8 10.7 5.1 0.1 | 7.58
Un | 106.0 | 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 7.3 12.6 18.7 23.6 19.9 11.5 0.9 | 8.55
Cg | 82.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.8 11.6 20.4 30.0 25.8 3.1 | 9.57
Pr | 71.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 6.6 13.3 25.2 43.9 6.3 | 10.13
Da | 24.0 | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 9.0 89.4 | 11.88


Notes: 0.0 means the team did end up that rank, but fewer than 500 times. If there is an x, it never happened. I'm not fancy enough to break ties the right way, so this breaks ties randomly. I'll try and make that better as the season goes on, but by the time they really matter, I'm sure burgie will have his super awesome posts up.

Dutchman
10-27-2013, 07:54 AM
Nice Work !!!

A retrodiction occurs when already gathered data is accounted for by a later theoretical advance in a more convincing fashion. The advantage of a retrodiction over a prediction is that the already gathered data is more likely to be free of experimenter bias

Is there any data that tells us how well KRACH did last year? For example, looking at each of the ECAC team's KRACH going into the ECAC playoffs and then comparing that to the final outcome and doing the same for the NCAA playoffs? How did it do? The reason I bring this up is that last year 5 WCHA (old) teams made the NCAA cut and only three ECAC teams did yet the WCHA teams all washed out and the ECAC teams went 8-2 and their only losses were to themselves. I would think that last years data would provide a gold mine for comparing models. The pairwise did not seem to work well. I am worried it will work less well this year. I raise this for several reasons:
#1. ECAC compared with other leagues over the past 5 years:
I ran some numbers last year that told me that except for the AH, the teams in the other leagues were all well matched except at the very top. That was not the case last year where our top teams were the top. We seemed to be holding our own this year thus far and many of our best teams have not even come on line yet.
#2. ECAC vs new leagues this year
It looks like a lot of the schedules this year, especially for the new leagues, play fewer games outside of league play than in the past. This is not the case for half of the ECAC but the ECAC always gets off to a slow start because of scheduling. Will this have an impact? Is there a way to factor in the diminishing non-league play, especially during the season?

I don't want to sound like I am whining but I believe that the ECAC has been underrepresented in the NCAA playoffs these past 5 years and am looking for a model that will help us avoid that predicament going forward. Models tend to support the status quo

vicb
10-27-2013, 08:28 AM
If you don't mind, I am going to enter your retrodictive prognostication from today in the ECAC Pick The Standings Contest. :)

lugnut92
10-27-2013, 02:53 PM
Dutchman,

KRACH isn't terrible, but honestly it isn't fantastic either. It doesn't do ties well and can't account for some of the external influences on the game (home-ice, momentum, injuries, etc.). Because it is retrodictive, it assumes that each team is exactly as strong as their record. It can't account for a team "turning it on" (or conversely, falling off).

You can't really say how good past predictions were because of the very small sample size (1) of real life. Quinnipiac was the best team in the country last year by KRACH, so they were chosen as most likely to win it all. Yale, on the other hand, was probably going to lose to Minnesota.

I can tell you that of these predictions from last year, every prediction after the new year would have placed in the top 5 of Vicb's Pick the Standings contest (though the last preseason prediction would have been 9th from last; RPI looked bad at the start, Cornell and Harvard looked good).

lugnut92
11-03-2013, 01:36 PM
The first full weekend of ECAC play is in the books and once again, Quinnipiac looks like the team to beat.

Standings
1. Quinnipiac (37)
2. Cornell (27)
3. St. Lawrence (26)
4. Yale (25.0)
-----
5. RPI (24.9)
6. Union (24.7)
7. Harvard (24.5)
8. Brown(22.2)
-----
9. Clarkson (21.8)
10. Colgate (19)
11. Princeton (8)
12. Dartmouth (3)

(Rounding Error = -1)

Quite the log jam from 4th to 7th with four teams within half a point of each other.

The Monte Carlo (again, only 1,000,000 simulations out of a possible 599,003,433,304,810,403,471,059,943,169,868,346,57 7,158,542,512,617,035,467 (or ~1056.8) different ways the rest of the season could go) is pretty similar, with a couple of teams transposed here and there:


| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 716.1 | 94.2 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 1.08
SL | 236.9 | 1.8 21.9 17.9 14.8 12.4 10.3 8.3 6.3 4.3 2.0 0.0 x | 4.50
Cr | 249.5 | 0.6 15.1 15.3 14.5 13.4 12.2 10.8 8.7 6.3 3.1 0.0 x | 5.08
Ya | 181.4 | 0.9 14.9 14.7 13.8 12.9 11.9 10.7 9.1 7.0 4.0 0.0 x | 5.17
Un | 174.8 | 1.0 14.7 14.2 13.5 12.8 11.8 10.7 9.3 7.5 4.5 0.0 x | 5.24
RP | 222.0 | 0.8 12.1 13.4 13.7 13.5 12.8 11.7 10.0 7.7 4.2 0.0 x | 5.38
Ha | 188.7 | 0.3 8.8 11.4 12.8 13.5 13.7 13.1 11.8 9.4 5.2 0.0 x | 5.76
Ck | 144.6 | 0.2 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.6 11.5 13.7 16.3 17.3 13.0 0.2 0.0 | 6.90
Br | 167.9 | 0.1 2.9 4.7 6.5 8.3 10.4 12.9 15.9 19.4 18.7 0.3 0.0 | 7.31
Cg | 115.0 | 0.0 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.4 8.0 12.6 21.0 43.6 1.2 0.0 | 8.61
Pr | 33.0 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 91.5 6.6 | 11.05
Da | 10.6 | x x x x x x x x x 0.0 6.6 93.4 | 11.93

Bold is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but less than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

CollegeHockeyRinkReport
11-03-2013, 02:00 PM
RPI doing well against UNH and BU will come in handy later in season. Clarkson and Cornell sweeping NCHC teams could go a long way. Brown will have opportunities against UNH, BC, Providence. Others will to.

Three ECAC teams in tournament last year. I think you will see two-three again this year.

RPI, Quinnipiac, Yale, Union, Harvard, Cornell all look to be in contention for a spot.

FlagDUDE08
11-03-2013, 05:03 PM
RPI doing well against UNH and BU will come in handy later in season. Clarkson and Cornell sweeping NCHC teams could go a long way. Brown will have opportunities against UNH, BC, Providence. Others will to.

Three ECAC teams in tournament last year. I think you will see two-three again this year.

RPI, Quinnipiac, Yale, Union, Harvard, Cornell all look to be in contention for a spot.

Beating BU is going to help. Nebraska, maybe (although thus far the OOWP is what pushes that down). The other two teams mentioned as going a long way (UNH and CC) I just don't see yet because those teams are not having very strong seasons at all. Obviously you want the teams you play to be top 20 RatingsPI because of the quality wins bonus now playing a factor, and that actually pushed BU from 21st to 13th. Before, I could never understand the whole "root for your league in NC play and any other opponents" because of the great weight placed upon OOWP, but it is SO much more important now because of the Quality Wins Bonus.

DrDemento
11-03-2013, 06:25 PM
RPI, Quinnipiac, Yale, Union, Harvard, Cornell all look to be in contention for a spot.

Pity we won't get 6 bids to cover all of these teams. At least i don't think we will.:rolleyes:

Ralph Baer
11-03-2013, 06:29 PM
Pity we won't get 6 bids to cover all of these teams. At least i don't think we will.:rolleyes:

However getting as many as four is certainly quite doable if the league keeps its OOC record up.

lugnut92
11-10-2013, 05:27 PM
Two full weeks of games (plus one) in the books, and things are starting to take shape.

Standings
1.Quinnipiac (36)
2.St. Lawrence (30.5)
3. Yale (29.9)
4. Clarkson (26)
-----
5. RPI (25)
6. Brown (24)
7. Union (23)
8. Cornell (22)
-----
9. Colgate (21)
10. Harvard (18)
11. Princeton (7)
12. Dartmouth (2)

A little separation now between 4-7 (though still within one good weekend). It's early, but Quinnipiac seems set to run away with things again this year. On the other end, Dartmouth looks like they may struggle to pick up any points, and will likely be on a bus the first weekend of the postseason.

The Monte Carlo simulation (now with 2- and 3-way tiebreakers!) paints the same picture as the overall standings:



1,000,000 simulations (of 1,127,130,637,840,908,780,976,740,490,797,413,723, 399,509,150,616,187 possibilities)

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 662.7 | 80.3 14.8 4.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 1.26
SL | 349.6 | 10.6 35.4 29.3 12.2 6.1 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 x x | 2.91
Ya | 282.3 | 7.5 33.0 26.4 17.2 8.2 3.8 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 x x | 3.14
Ck | 203.1 | 0.8 7.0 15.1 22.0 16.7 14.1 11.5 7.0 4.2 1.7 0.0 x | 5.07
RP | 216.7 | 0.5 4.0 9.9 15.8 20.1 16.6 13.8 10.6 6.9 2.0 0.0 x | 5.64
Br | 195.5 | 0.2 2.7 5.6 12.2 14.2 17.1 16.1 13.7 11.1 7.1 0.0 x | 6.38
Un | 147.6 | 0.1 1.8 5.0 9.4 14.5 15.9 17.7 16.7 12.8 6.1 0.0 x | 6.58
Cr | 166.6 | 0.0 0.9 3.1 6.3 11.3 13.8 16.9 18.9 15.8 13.0 0.0 x | 7.17
Cg | 125.7 | 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.6 6.6 11.0 12.7 18.0 22.8 23.5 0.1 x | 7.92
Ha | 103.5 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.9 7.5 13.5 25.8 46.1 0.3 0.0 | 8.94
Pr | 24.0 | x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.4 90.0 9.6 | 11.09
Da | 7.8 | x x x x x x x x x 0.0 9.6 90.4 | 11.90

Bold is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but less than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

QUAlum2004
11-11-2013, 12:24 PM
6 ECAC teams in the USCHO.com top 20 poll this week.

#6 Quinnipiac
#9 Yale
#10 RPI
#11 Clarkson
#17 St. Lawrence
#19 Cornell

DrDemento
11-11-2013, 03:36 PM
6 ECAC teams in the USCHO.com top 20 poll this week.

#6 Quinnipiac
#9 Yale
#10 RPI
#11 Clarkson
#17 St. Lawrence
#19 Cornell

I have not yet seen all the teams in person, on line or on TV. But watching QU, Yale, RPI, and Cornell so far-they all belong there somewhere. I uspect that STL and Clarkson belong there also but just have not seen them. I would not be surprised to see Union join this group to make it 7 soon.

lugnut92
11-11-2013, 05:37 PM
I have not yet seen all the teams in person, on line or on TV. But watching QU, Yale, RPI, and Cornell so far-they all belong there somewhere. I uspect that STL and Clarkson belong there also but just have not seen them. I would not be surprised to see Union join this group to make it 7 soon.

I saw SLU and Clarkson here at Yale and they both definitely deserve it. SLU played to a hard-fought "good" tie, and their partners in Clarkson just fell victim to Yale's offense (6-3 Yale). The Knights probably need to step up their D if they want to compete long-term, but they are quite good.

drshoen
11-12-2013, 12:46 PM
I saw SLU and Clarkson here at Yale and they both definitely deserve it. SLU played to a hard-fought "good" tie, and their partners in Clarkson just fell victim to Yale's offense (6-3 Yale). The Knights probably need to step up their D if they want to compete long-term, but they are quite good.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, I guess) you saw Clarkson's worst defensive show by quite a bit. Both goaltenders have GAA under 2 so far, and they've allowed 4 twice (and the 6 to Yale). The defense has been better than the offense so far, and Clarkson has 6 1-goal wins (of 9 total wins)

lugnut92
11-17-2013, 11:50 AM
Not quite a full slate of games this weekend, but definitely enough to shake things up and push us past the 1/4 mark of the season. Here are the expected final standings:

1. Quinnipiac (38)
2. Yale (28.9)
3. Union (28.8)
4. Colgate (27.6)
-----
5. Clarkson (26)
6. St. Lawrence (23.9)
7. Cornell (23.8)
8. RPI (21)
-----
9. Brown (20)
10. Harvard (18)
11. Princeton (6)
12. Dartmouth (1)

Colgate jumped from 9th to 4th on their huge road weekend in the North Country, while knocking both Clarkson and SLU out of the bye for now. Union's sweep against RPI (****) propelled them into 3rd, while dropping RPI to just above the home ice bubble. Meanwhile, Princeton and Dartmouth look to combine for fewer points than four teams have already earned. At the other end of the spectrum

The simulation gives us an idea of what spread of ranks each team will end up with at the end of the year.



1,000,000 simulations (of 19,088,056,323,407,827,075,424,486,287,615,602,692 ,670,648,963 possibilities)

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 696.5 | 93.2 5.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 1.08
Un | 216.5 | 2.4 29.5 25.4 16.9 12.3 7.5 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 x x | 3.56
Ya | 233.5 | 3.1 32.7 20.1 18.2 11.7 7.2 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 x x | 3.57
Cg | 204.0 | 0.7 15.6 20.7 20.3 16.9 13.4 6.2 3.9 1.7 0.6 x x | 4.36
Ck | 203.1 | 0.5 10.3 17.3 19.9 16.1 14.0 11.5 6.4 3.0 0.9 x x | 4.85
SL | 187.4 | 0.1 2.8 6.8 9.8 15.2 19.8 19.1 14.6 8.5 3.2 0.0 x | 6.20
Cr | 184.4 | 0.0 2.7 6.3 8.9 15.6 17.5 20.1 14.4 9.1 5.4 0.0 x | 6.34
RP | 143.8 | 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 6.4 10.0 16.1 23.6 26.4 13.2 0.0 x | 7.79
Br | 120.3 | 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.1 7.6 12.4 18.9 23.7 29.5 0.0 x | 8.26
Ha | 97.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.0 6.8 14.7 26.3 46.7 0.1 x | 8.99
Pr | 18.5 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.1 97.7 2.2 | 11.02
Da | 3.8 | x x x x x x x x x x 2.2 97.8 | 11.98

Bold is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but less than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.


I have the code to start looking at potential playoff match-ups, but I think it's a bit early to start looking at those.

lugnut92
11-24-2013, 11:14 AM
Both remaining undefeated teams fell this weekend, but they remain (just barely) atop the heap. Here are this week's projected standings:

1. Quinnipiac (34)
2. Yale (28.90)
3. Union (28.87)
4. Cornell (28.4)
-----
5. Clarkson (26.9)
6. Colgate (26.8)
7. St. Lawrence (23)
8. RPI (21)
-----
9. Harvard (18)
10. Brown (17)
11. Princeton (11)
12. Dartmouth (1)

Three teams are in a dogfight for second, with Yale and Union in a practical tie. There's a bit of a fight for who gets to face Dartmouth, but nothing at the lines this week.

In the simulation, Union gets the edge over Yale, but otherwise the order of teams is the same.



1,000,000 simulations (of 26,183,890,704,263,137,277,674,192,438,430,182,020 ,124,347 possibilities)

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 481.5 | 64.7 19.3 8.6 4.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x | 1.64
Un | 214.1 | 12.1 21.1 18.6 16.2 13.5 10.2 5.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 x | 3.64
Ya | 233.2 | 9.3 19.8 19.4 17.5 14.3 10.6 5.9 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 x | 3.80
Cr | 286.8 | 5.5 16.4 19.8 19.1 16.7 12.9 6.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 x | 4.07
Ck | 213.4 | 4.9 11.1 14.2 16.3 17.4 16.7 11.8 5.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 x | 4.69
Cg | 189.5 | 2.9 10.0 14.3 17.3 19.1 18.4 11.3 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 x | 4.76
SL | 167.0 | 0.5 2.0 3.9 6.6 10.4 16.5 26.3 19.4 10.1 3.8 0.5 x | 6.67
RP | 133.4 | 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.6 9.2 18.4 28.2 22.3 11.7 1.9 0.0 | 7.84
Ha | 89.4 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 7.8 19.7 32.9 29.6 5.5 0.0 | 8.89
Br | 88.5 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 5.8 14.9 26.2 40.3 10.0 0.0 | 9.24
Pr | 39.8 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 13.6 81.4 0.6 | 10.77
Da | 5.7 | x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 | 11.99

Bold is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but less than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

lugnut92
12-08-2013, 01:14 PM
A pile of games this weekend (and like one last weekend) give us a new #1. It disgusts me:

1. Union (33)
2. Clarkson (31)
3. Quinnipiac (31)
4. Colgate (28)
-----
5. Cornell (27)
6. Yale (23)
7. RPI (23)
8. St. Lawrence (21)
-----
9. Brown (19)
10. Harvard (15)
11. Princeton (8)
12. Dartmouth (7)
(I gave up on adding the extra decimals. Rounding error = +2)

Union is now the frontrunner for the Cleary and Quinnipiac has fallen to third (though a scant 0.02 points behind Clarkson). Yale's one point weekend dropped them all the way to 6th. Dartmouth has gone from barely expecting a point to looking at a merely terrible 7 on the season.

The simulation agrees:


1,000,000 simulations (of 49,269,609,804,781,974,438,694,403,402,127,765,867 possibilities)

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un | 232.9 | 52.2 24.3 12.9 6.4 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 x x | 1.88
Ck | 224.2 | 22.6 26.1 22.5 14.7 8.3 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 x x | 2.80
Qu | 278.9 | 18.3 29.5 24.8 14.7 7.7 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 x x | 2.81
Cg | 156.4 | 4.1 10.1 17.3 23.2 21.2 13.8 7.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 x | 4.34
Cr | 170.2 | 2.1 7.1 14.4 22.7 24.6 16.2 8.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 x | 4.67
Ya | 111.4 | 0.5 1.7 4.1 8.4 14.5 22.1 22.4 15.8 8.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 | 6.35
RP | 118.9 | 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.9 12.7 20.6 23.4 18.8 11.1 2.3 0.0 0.0 | 6.64
SL | 109.3 | 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.5 12.0 20.8 28.9 22.5 6.7 0.4 0.0 | 7.61
Br | 75.3 | 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.5 13.2 23.9 36.8 14.9 0.9 0.1 | 8.31
Ha | 56.5 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 5.8 18.5 63.6 8.2 1.5 | 9.73
Pr | 17.2 | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.9 49.6 45.0 | 11.39
Da | 15.0 | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.4 40.8 53.4 | 11.47

Bold is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

lugnut92
12-15-2013, 04:01 PM
Just minor changes due to the non-con games this week:

1. Union (35)
2. Quinnipiac (31)
3. Clarkson (31)
4. Cornell (27)
-----
5. Colgate (26)
6. Yale (23)
7. RPI (22)
8. St. Lawrence (21)
-----
9. Brown (19)
10. Harvard (15)
11. Princeton (8)
12. Dartmouth (7)



1,000,000 simulations (of 49,269,609,804,781,974,438,694,403,402,127,765,867 possibilities)

| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un | 281.2 | 67.5 20.4 8.0 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 1.50
Qu | 267.8 | 13.6 35.0 27.7 13.7 6.4 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 x x | 2.77
Ck | 204.8 | 15.9 29.2 26.6 15.2 7.9 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 x x | 2.87
Cr | 159.3 | 1.3 6.9 16.2 26.8 23.6 14.3 7.1 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 x | 4.57
Cg | 118.3 | 1.4 6.2 14.0 22.6 24.2 17.0 9.2 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 | 4.78
Ya | 102.2 | 0.3 1.5 4.3 9.6 16.2 22.6 20.9 14.6 8.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 | 6.26
RP | 93.2 | 0.0 0.6 2.2 5.8 11.3 18.6 23.0 20.7 13.9 3.7 0.1 0.0 | 6.90
SL | 101.1 | 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.3 13.1 21.4 27.1 21.2 7.0 0.3 0.0 | 7.55
Br | 69.1 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 7.3 13.9 23.6 34.5 15.6 0.8 0.1 | 8.26
Ha | 54.0 | x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 6.7 19.5 62.4 7.0 1.2 | 9.66
Pr | 15.8 | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.6 52.7 42.3 | 11.37
Da | 13.4 | x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.3 39.0 56.4 | 11.51

Bold is each team's most likely rank.
0.0 means the team did place in that position, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the team never finished in that position.

sshablak
12-16-2013, 12:07 PM
Cornell bias:D I didn't realize NC games changed our projected points here:confused:

LynahFan
12-16-2013, 12:16 PM
Cornell bias:D I didn't realize NC games changed our projected points here:confused:It's a Monte Carlo simulation of games between ECAC teams based on their overall KRACH ratings, which include NC games. As KRACH changes due to NC games, these results will change.

I rather think the recent change was a big one, myself! :)