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View Full Version : Pairwise Bracketology Part Deux: Playing with RHamilton's Tool



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Umileated
03-23-2013, 05:28 PM
Well, we maxed that first thread out.


Priceless, you cited this in the previous thread:

As it stands now
Mankato 96%
Notre Dame 95%
Niagara 93%
Yale 83%
St Cloud 82%

Two days ago St Cloud was 98%



I forget if you're running scenario odds, or KRACH weighted?

BC/HE
03-23-2013, 05:38 PM
As each result comes in today it would be nice if one of the wizards on here would post if any new locks are made for the tournament or if anyone gets locked out. Before the Quinnipiac win I believe there were 8 locks. How about now?

Dutchman
03-23-2013, 05:46 PM
I don't understand why Niagara makes it? They have only played 5 TUC teams. Does not that disqualify them?

Priceless
03-23-2013, 05:47 PM
Well, we maxed that first thread out.


Priceless, you cited this in the previous thread:

As it stands now
Mankato 96%
Notre Dame 95%
Niagara 93%
Yale 83%
St Cloud 82%

Two days ago St Cloud was 98%



I forget if you're running scenario odds, or KRACH weighted?

KRACH weighted. I am also on a cell phone. Can someone repost the links from the previous thread?

there are 8 teams in (plus three autobid teams). It appears Niagara will become the 9th.

ETA: Mankato is the 10th.

MavHockey14
03-23-2013, 05:49 PM
Isn't Minnesota State a lock now with the Q win?

Ed Trefzger
03-23-2013, 05:49 PM
I don't understand why Niagara makes it? They have only played 5 TUC teams. Does not that disqualify them?

Niagara is not disqualified by the number of TUC games. What happens is that because they've played fewer than 10 TUC games, that metric does not get considered in their comparisons with other teams.

MaizeRage
03-23-2013, 05:51 PM
Isn't Minnesota State a lock now with the Q win?

Nope. Wins by Brown, Boston University, Wisconsin, and Michigan keep them out. Any of those four lose and they're in.

Umileated
03-23-2013, 05:52 PM
KRACH weighted. I am also on a cell phone. Can someone repost the links from the previous thread?

there are 8 teams in (plus three autobid teams). It appears Niagara will become the 9th.

ETA: Mankato is the 10th.

http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/

Ta da!

Priceless
03-23-2013, 05:53 PM
We might only have 1 at-large to hand out. We already have 10 teams in and each conference could be won by an autobid team. The door is closing fast.

ETA: Notre Dame already clinched as well. If BU and Michigan win the door is closed.

goblue78
03-23-2013, 06:05 PM
We might only have 1 at-large to hand out. We already have 10 teams in and each conference could be won by an autobid team. The door is closing fast.

ETA: Notre Dame already clinched as well. If BU and Michigan win the door is closed.

If I haven't mishandled RHamilton's tool sitting on a freezing bench in AC, Yale needs a Lowell and ND win. Correct?

Rtn2GoldCountry
03-23-2013, 06:15 PM
With only 5 games remaining before the selection, how many remaining possibilities are there?

Koho
03-23-2013, 06:16 PM
So am I reading it correct, that a Union, BU and Mich win and SCSU doesn't make it. (never played with the pairwise predictor before.

JimDahl
03-23-2013, 06:17 PM
With only 5 games remaining before the selection, how many remaining possibilities are there?

32

At this point you can almost do it on a cocktail napkin, but here's my shot at a summary:
Mid Saturday update (http://blog.siouxsports.com/2013/03/23/mid-saturday-night-update/)

The Exiled One
03-23-2013, 06:19 PM
So am I reading it correct, that a Union, BU and Mich win and SCSU doesn't make it. (never played with the pairwise predictor before.
Correct.

As far as I can tell, if Lowell OR Notre Dame win, SCSU is in. If they both lose, SCSU is out. Can anybody prove otherwise?

Priceless
03-23-2013, 06:22 PM
Just 2 days ago Yale and St Cloud were mortal locks, eyeing #1 seeds. Now they are hoping Lowell and Notre Dame can bail them out.

Savage
03-23-2013, 06:23 PM
If I'm reading Notre Dame's status correctly from the RH tool:
* There are 32 remaining possibilities, and ND is in the Tournament in all of them.
* ND is a 1-seed with a win: if UML beats BU, then the #4; the other way around the #3.
* With a loss, ND is the #8, no matter the other results.

(edit: this matches the info from Jim Dahl's mid-Saturday update posted above)

burgie12
03-23-2013, 06:26 PM
If I haven't mishandled RHamilton's tool sitting on a freezing bench in AC, Yale needs a Lowell and ND win. Correct?
Correct. The other three games can go in any direction. Those are the only two that matter to Yale and they have to be UML and Notre Dame wins.

burgie12
03-23-2013, 06:29 PM
Correct.

As far as I can tell, if Lowell OR Notre Dame win, SCSU is in. If they both lose, SCSU is out. Can anybody prove otherwise?
Correct. That's what Jim posted on his blog, too.

The Exiled One
03-23-2013, 06:34 PM
Correct. That's what Jim posted on his blog, too.
Congrats to Yale then. :(

JimDahl
03-23-2013, 06:35 PM
Correct. That's what Jim posted on his blog, too.

As I also noted, Yale just seems to be #2 in the same line as St Cloud St. It basically all seems decided.

There are 11 in. There are 3 games that will send the champ and take a slot. BU and Michigan could each take one of the final slots with a win, but if either or both miss they'll go to St Cloud St and Yale, in that order.

Caveat - that's my read of the situation, not computer generated, so let me know if I'm missing anything.