Todd

02-26-2013, 01:52 PM

So does this mean that MC @ BU is, in effect, a play-in game? Both are buried deep in the PWR and, it would seem that a loss by either team basically requires a HE tourney title for a trip to the NCAA tourney. I'm guessing the math does not work otherwise.

I'd bet that both teams are already at the point where the HE title is the only way they get in. MC's loss to BC was devastating from a PWR perspective; would have been huge to pick up H2H comparision points vs. top 5 team. BU getting swept by UML may have been a nail in their PWR coffin.

Jim Dahl does some awesome break downs over on his Sioux Sports Talk blog. If you scroll down, you'll find projections for BU and Providence. I don't believe he takes conference tournaments into account, but I could be wrong.

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2013/02/21/und-closes-in-on-ncaa-tournament-berth/

This was of course how BU looked going into being swept by Lowell.

That's a great use of data viz for sports.

Jim Dahl's analysis goes through the end of the RS. As he shows, at that point, if BU won 5 of its remaining 7 (it has already lost 2 to UML, so has only 5 left), they'd average out around a 13 PWR going into HE playoffs. Win "only" four, and they're averaging right on/under the bubble around 16-17.

What I don't know is whether he was comparing all the COP, TUC, H2H issues, or just RPI.

In the case of HE 3-6, they will also be playing strong enough competition that it will change their TUC record. Whoever survives will probably get that again in the semis (and perhaps the final). Win or lose, it will increase the strength of schedule for all in that group as well.

The other thing to note is that TUC records near the bubble - really everywhere but perhaps the very top teams - tend towards .500.

MC lost to BC and so lost a number of pairs. If they then beat BU or UML or a TUC in the HEQFs and beyond, those pairs can come right back.

Also to be considered: at this point in the season, RPIs tend to fall faster (or rise higher) towards .5000 than they climb (or fall) away from it. The further from the middle you are, the bigger the jump towards it and the harder the pull away.

Of course, the other teams in the other leagues also have to win and lose games, and teams will join and drop off of the TUC list as well. It's possible that MC's loss to Alaska or tie with Colgate could drop off their TUC tally. If UVM sweeps BU and BC, they should top .5000, adding a 2-0-1 to MC's TUC - and so on.

In sum: while we're drawing close to the time when it matters, there's more under the surface than just the games a given team is playing, so there's volatility - esp. at the bubble.

Umileated reminded me about Dahl's RPI page (http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/rpi/) (my browser had dumped my links a while back). If you're into the math, from there, you can drill down into the detail of how any remaining games impact any teams RPI.

Example: The most important game for BU to win, in terms of gaining RPI, is the MC game. The most important not to lose, in terms of damaging their RPI, are the remaining UVM/NU games. If they sweep out the RS, they'll pick up about .0140 points. If they get 3/5, they'll be about where they are.

MC could add about .0160 by sweeping, and could be a little ahead of where they are now with 3/5.

Anyway, neither are "must" wins, but there are so few games left that if you don't win soon, you have no way to change where you are.

Insert Bill Parcells, Dennis Green, or - of course - Jim Mora quote of your choosing here.

I'd bet that both teams are already at the point where the HE title is the only way they get in. MC's loss to BC was devastating from a PWR perspective; would have been huge to pick up H2H comparision points vs. top 5 team. BU getting swept by UML may have been a nail in their PWR coffin.

Jim Dahl does some awesome break downs over on his Sioux Sports Talk blog. If you scroll down, you'll find projections for BU and Providence. I don't believe he takes conference tournaments into account, but I could be wrong.

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2013/02/21/und-closes-in-on-ncaa-tournament-berth/

This was of course how BU looked going into being swept by Lowell.

That's a great use of data viz for sports.

Jim Dahl's analysis goes through the end of the RS. As he shows, at that point, if BU won 5 of its remaining 7 (it has already lost 2 to UML, so has only 5 left), they'd average out around a 13 PWR going into HE playoffs. Win "only" four, and they're averaging right on/under the bubble around 16-17.

What I don't know is whether he was comparing all the COP, TUC, H2H issues, or just RPI.

In the case of HE 3-6, they will also be playing strong enough competition that it will change their TUC record. Whoever survives will probably get that again in the semis (and perhaps the final). Win or lose, it will increase the strength of schedule for all in that group as well.

The other thing to note is that TUC records near the bubble - really everywhere but perhaps the very top teams - tend towards .500.

MC lost to BC and so lost a number of pairs. If they then beat BU or UML or a TUC in the HEQFs and beyond, those pairs can come right back.

Also to be considered: at this point in the season, RPIs tend to fall faster (or rise higher) towards .5000 than they climb (or fall) away from it. The further from the middle you are, the bigger the jump towards it and the harder the pull away.

Of course, the other teams in the other leagues also have to win and lose games, and teams will join and drop off of the TUC list as well. It's possible that MC's loss to Alaska or tie with Colgate could drop off their TUC tally. If UVM sweeps BU and BC, they should top .5000, adding a 2-0-1 to MC's TUC - and so on.

In sum: while we're drawing close to the time when it matters, there's more under the surface than just the games a given team is playing, so there's volatility - esp. at the bubble.

Umileated reminded me about Dahl's RPI page (http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/rpi/) (my browser had dumped my links a while back). If you're into the math, from there, you can drill down into the detail of how any remaining games impact any teams RPI.

Example: The most important game for BU to win, in terms of gaining RPI, is the MC game. The most important not to lose, in terms of damaging their RPI, are the remaining UVM/NU games. If they sweep out the RS, they'll pick up about .0140 points. If they get 3/5, they'll be about where they are.

MC could add about .0160 by sweeping, and could be a little ahead of where they are now with 3/5.

Anyway, neither are "must" wins, but there are so few games left that if you don't win soon, you have no way to change where you are.

Insert Bill Parcells, Dennis Green, or - of course - Jim Mora quote of your choosing here.