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Red Cows
01-20-2013, 03:33 PM
I'm only looking at the teams I think are still realistically, in theory, in the hunt, with apologies to CC, BSU, MTU, & AA. I also did not factor Wisconsin's home non-conference series with PSU into this anywhere, either. They are the only non-conference games anybody has left of the teams that are "in the hunt".

Remaining schedules:

St. Cloud: 4 home, 8 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 61-56-24
Wisconsin: 7 home, 4 away, 1 neutral Remaining opponent's composite record: 65-55-20
North Dakota: 6 home, 6 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 69-55-19
Minnesota State: 5 home, 5 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 57-47-17
Minnesota: 5 home, 6 away, 1 neutral Remaining opponent's composite record: 66-57-20
Denver: 5 home, 5 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 53-49-18
UNO: 6 home, 6 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 47-64-26

North Dakota faces the toughest remaining schedule.

UNO faces the easiest remaining schedule.

Few observations about each team:

1. St. Cloud has series left with 3 teams on the list, two at home and one on the road.

2. Wisconsin has series left with 4 teams on the list, 1 fully at home, and 2 fully on the road, and, a split at home and on neutral ice with the Gophers.

3. North Dakota has series left with 5 teams on the list, two at home and three on the road.

4. Minnesota State has series left with 2 teams on the list, 1 1/2 at home and 1/2 on the road as they home and away with the Gophers in that series.

5. Minnesota has series left with 4 teams on the list, one fully at home and one fully on the road, a home and away in another, and away and on neutral ice with the last one.

6. Denver has series left with 2 teams on the list, one at home and one on the road.

7. UNO has series left with 2 teams on the list, both of which are at home.

Now, I'll be honest and say that the reason I started this thread is to point out the relatively "easy" (ha!) path UNO has to the MacNaughton. And, UNO's home series against teams in the running are against North Dakota and against Wisconsin, probably, the "team least likely to" in the remaining league race scenario. That said, I have my worries, anyway. UNO is very beat up, is missing some key players, and I don't trust John Faulkner any farther than I can throw him.

I hope I got all my numbers right.

I'll let everybody draw their own conclusions.

Biddco
01-20-2013, 09:20 PM
It is going to be one exciting finish. Which is very fitting for the last year for this league as we know it.

icehawk
01-20-2013, 09:44 PM
I love how this is shaping up for the last season of the WCHA as we know it today. Going to get very intense down the stretch. The first round of the playoffs should be epic. I can see 4 or so series going to 3 games.

beaverhockeyfan
01-21-2013, 09:15 AM
I'm only looking at the teams I think are still realistically, in theory, in the hunt, with apologies to CC, BSU, MTU, & AA. I also did not factor Wisconsin's home non-conference series with PSU into this anywhere, either. They are the only non-conference games anybody has left of the teams that are "in the hunt".

Remaining schedules:

St. Cloud: 4 home, 8 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 61-56-24
Wisconsin: 7 home, 4 away, 1 neutral Remaining opponent's composite record: 65-55-20
North Dakota: 6 home, 6 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 69-55-19
Minnesota State: 5 home, 5 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 57-47-17
Minnesota: 5 home, 6 away, 1 neutral Remaining opponent's composite record: 66-57-20
Denver: 5 home, 5 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 53-49-18
UNO: 6 home, 6 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 47-64-26

North Dakota faces the toughest remaining schedule.

UNO faces the easiest remaining schedule.

Few observations about each team:

1. St. Cloud has series left with 3 teams on the list, two at home and one on the road.

2. Wisconsin has series left with 4 teams on the list, 1 fully at home, and 2 fully on the road, and, a split at home and on neutral ice with the Gophers.

3. North Dakota has series left with 5 teams on the list, two at home and three on the road.

4. Minnesota State has series left with 2 teams on the list, 1 1/2 at home and 1/2 on the road as they home and away with the Gophers in that series.

5. Minnesota has series left with 4 teams on the list, one fully at home and one fully on the road, a home and away in another, and away and on neutral ice with the last one.

6. Denver has series left with 2 teams on the list, one at home and one on the road.

7. UNO has series left with 2 teams on the list, both of which are at home.

Now, I'll be honest and say that the reason I started this thread is to point out the relatively "easy" (ha!) path UNO has to the MacNaughton. And, UNO's home series against teams in the running are against North Dakota and against Wisconsin, probably, the "team least likely to" in the remaining league race scenario. That said, I have my worries, anyway. UNO is very beat up, is missing some key players, and I don't trust John Faulkner any farther than I can throw him.

I hope I got all my numbers right.

I'll let everybody draw their own conclusions.

UNO still has two games with BSU on the schedule! Probably the last two times the teams will meet during the regular season.

SCSU Euro
01-21-2013, 11:14 AM
I'm only looking at the teams I think are still realistically, in theory, in the hunt, with apologies to CC, BSU, MTU, & AA. I also did not factor Wisconsin's home non-conference series with PSU into this anywhere, either. They are the only non-conference games anybody has left of the teams that are "in the hunt".

Remaining schedules:

St. Cloud: 4 home, 8 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 61-56-24
Wisconsin: 7 home, 4 away, 1 neutral Remaining opponent's composite record: 65-55-20
North Dakota: 6 home, 6 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 69-55-19
Minnesota State: 5 home, 5 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 57-47-17
Minnesota: 5 home, 6 away, 1 neutral Remaining opponent's composite record: 66-57-20
Denver: 5 home, 5 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 53-49-18
UNO: 6 home, 6 away Remaining opponent's composite record: 47-64-26

North Dakota faces the toughest remaining schedule.

UNO faces the easiest remaining schedule.

Few observations about each team:

1. St. Cloud has series left with 3 teams on the list, two at home and one on the road.

2. Wisconsin has series left with 4 teams on the list, 1 fully at home, and 2 fully on the road, and, a split at home and on neutral ice with the Gophers.

3. North Dakota has series left with 5 teams on the list, two at home and three on the road.

4. Minnesota State has series left with 2 teams on the list, 1 1/2 at home and 1/2 on the road as they home and away with the Gophers in that series.

5. Minnesota has series left with 4 teams on the list, one fully at home and one fully on the road, a home and away in another, and away and on neutral ice with the last one.

6. Denver has series left with 2 teams on the list, one at home and one on the road.

7. UNO has series left with 2 teams on the list, both of which are at home.

Now, I'll be honest and say that the reason I started this thread is to point out the relatively "easy" (ha!) path UNO has to the MacNaughton. And, UNO's home series against teams in the running are against North Dakota and against Wisconsin, probably, the "team least likely to" in the remaining league race scenario. That said, I have my worries, anyway. UNO is very beat up, is missing some key players, and I don't trust John Faulkner any farther than I can throw him.

I hope I got all my numbers right.

I'll let everybody draw their own conclusions.

So in other words, if UNO does win the league we can go ahead and dispute that they weren't very good and that they were the beneficiaries of the easiest schedule in the league (BSU, MTU, UMD each for two series), but if UNO doesn't win the league then they should have and they're complete choke artists.

Fantastic.

Also you did get one thing I noticed wrong; you said SCSU has 3 series left with teams "in Red Cows' contention," 2 at home, 1 on the road. Its actually only 1 at home (MN), and either 2 on the road or 1 on the road (UND) and 1 at a 'neutral site' as we play Wisconsin at the Dane this year.

Happy
01-21-2013, 11:24 AM
I assume the gophers and/or SCSU has their destiny in their own hands.

The Exiled One
01-21-2013, 11:36 AM
I assume the gophers and/or SCSU has their destiny in their own hands.
Yep

Lakerblue
01-21-2013, 11:59 AM
I assume the gophers and/or SCSU has their destiny in their own hands.

Among other things!

Red Cows
01-21-2013, 01:10 PM
So in other words, if UNO does win the league we can go ahead and dispute that they weren't very good and that they were the beneficiaries of the easiest schedule in the league (BSU, MTU, UMD each for two series), but if UNO doesn't win the league then they should have and they're complete choke artists.

Fantastic.

Also you did get one thing I noticed wrong; you said SCSU has 3 series left with teams "in Red Cows' contention," 2 at home, 1 on the road. Its actually only 1 at home (MN), and either 2 on the road or 1 on the road (UND) and 1 at a 'neutral site' as we play Wisconsin at the Dane this year.

I really can't argue with your contention about our schedule. All I can say is that it's interesting how much more scrutiny SOS gets in college hockey than in football. Nonetheless, that's the schedule we got this year. That isn't our fault, either. It's up to us to take advantage of it, though.

Also, I considered adding some comments, originally, about what happens if UNO falls on it's face despite the very favorable schedule they have. If they were 100% healthy, I'd agree with you, they'd be choke artists if they blew it. My confidence right now, despite the favorable schedule, isn't the greatest. We are pretty beat up:

http://www.omaha.com/article/20130116/MAVS/701169826/1085#short-handed-mavs-shoot-for-home-ice

............and, predictably, it's important guys that are beat up.

Also, by having less series against contenders, that can work against you as well so it's kind of a double edged sword because then you REALLY don't control your own destiny if you don't beat the teams you are "supposed to".

I'll edit my post above about SCSU. Thanks for the heads up.

The Exiled One
01-21-2013, 01:10 PM
The last time SCSU was leading the WCHA in the 2nd half of the season was 1/13/01. Bill Clinton was President.

Red Cows
01-21-2013, 01:15 PM
The last time SCSU was leading the WCHA in the 2nd half of the season was 1/13/01. Bill Clinton was President.

And the last time UNO led ANY conference in the 2nd half was--NEVER.

Until last week.

That's another thing that weighs on me where they are concerned. The only person that has "been there, done that" is our head coach. I don't underestimate the size of that "burden" at all. Hopefully, our guys don't get so tight you can't drive a pin up their collective you-know-whats since they are this close right now, with the brass ring in sight.

Red Cows
01-27-2013, 12:52 AM
My best guess as to the record of all contenders based on their remaining schedule:

UNO, SCSU, & MN 7-3-0
ND, WI, & DU 6-4-0
MSM 5-3-0

That means, ladies and gentlemen, your '12-'13 WCHA MacNaughton Cup Champions are the St. Cloud State University Huskies.

I did not factor in even so much as a single tie, however. The scenario above gives you league records of:

SCSU 19-8-1
UNO 18-8-2
MN 17-7-4
ND 14-9-5
WI 14-9-5
DU 14-10-4
MSM 15-12-1

Obviously, it's pretty ridiculous to assume there will be NO ties between now and the end of the season. Any that happen will probably have a huge impact, since the league title chase is probably going to be really, really close and looks like it will probably be won by a team with under 40 points.

Anybody else out of this crowd that rises to the top and wins it will have definitely earned the title.

GopherBigGuy911
01-27-2013, 01:09 AM
My best guess as to the record of all contenders based on their remaining schedule:

UNO, SCSU, & MN 7-3-0
ND, WI, & DU 6-4-0
MSM 5-3-0

That means, ladies and gentlemen, your '12-'13 WCHA MacNaughton Cup Champions are the St. Cloud State University Huskies.

I did not factor in even so much as a single tie, however. The scenario above gives you league records of:

SCSU 19-8-1
UNO 18-8-2
MN 17-7-4
ND 14-9-5
WI 14-9-5
DU 14-10-4
MSM 15-12-1

Obviously, it's pretty ridiculous to assume there will be NO ties between now and the end of the season. Any that happen will probably have a huge impact, since the league title chase is probably going to be really, really close and looks like it will probably be won by a team with under 40 points.

Anybody else out of this crowd that rises to the top and wins it will have definitely earned the title.
And who exactly will the Gophers lose to?????

state of hockey
01-27-2013, 01:11 AM
And who exactly will the Gophers lose to?????

St. Cloud, Denver, and Wisconsin would be my guess.

Red Cows
01-27-2013, 01:14 AM
And who exactly will the Gophers lose to?????

Gophers:

Split with SCSU
Split with Wisconsin
Sweep Duluth
Split with DU
Sweep Bemidji

I reserve the right to be wrong. If I am, I bet I don't miss by much. The Gophers are at least pseudo-mortal.

Biddco
01-27-2013, 01:15 AM
MY homer guess...UMD will win the league.

Red Cows
01-27-2013, 01:24 AM
MY homer guess...UMD will win the league.

Ironically, it's my belief that our inability to sweep you guys in the last weekend of the season up there is what will screw us out of the cup. One of our losses in my "UNO scenario" is to you guys.

Worse, if it works out the way I think, the Bulldogs will obviously KNOW that the last game is for all the marbles for UNO. On one side, we'll have a team that has nothing to lose and on the other a team that has never been there before, save their head coach, who may be so tight as a result you can't drive a pin up their you know what.

I'm a giant skeptic about any team that has never been there, done that. Even my own.

GopherBigGuy911
01-27-2013, 01:31 AM
Red Mooo Does have an easy road. But, Championships are won by teams that fight for it. I am very confident the Gophers have the drive to end the WCHA in style.

Husky4Life
01-27-2013, 01:33 AM
Red Cow is really excited about his team you guys

Red Cows
01-27-2013, 01:42 AM
Red Mooo Does have an easy road. But, Championships are won by teams that fight for it. I am very confident the Gophers have the drive to end the WCHA in style.

I think legacy and expectations have an enormous impact. If the league title hypothetically this season came down to a game between UNO and Minnesota, head-up, I think it would take an extraordinary effort by UNO to win, even at home.

While UNO would want to win, Minnesota would expect to. That is a hard thing to overcome for any team unless they are truly "special" and, while UNO is a good team and can put pucks in the net, I don't think we are are truly "special" enough this season to overcome that intangible.

The one thing we have going for us is a head coach that actually HAS been there, done that, and can overcome what I believe is this enormous obstacle. Coach Blais has to sell these guys. I mean, Ryan Walters truly IS a Gopher reject, when you come down to it.