WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

[TUSCHWI]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I agree with all of this 1 million percent.

Unfortunately, I see nothing that tells me that Eaves' seat is even warm, let alone hot.

I think we're stuck with him for a bit.

This is an issue I'm unsure about. I agree that nothing I've read directly suggests Eaves seat is warm. But couple things stick out: Alvarez was at the KC for the Friday Bemidji St. game and there were only 7k+ fans there (according to Brian Posick during the radio broadcast). Barry may be many things but he doesn't like crappy play, losing or losing $$$. I also noticed that when the UW Athletic Dept released their budget for the next year, one item that was specifically mentioned was a $400,000+ loss in men's hockey revenue. No other sport was singled out. And with the B1G conference starting up, you'd think BA who champtioned the B1G Hockey Conference would want a winner with full stands on TV, not a boring product with a half full facility.

I'm not really making a point, but I can't believe Eaves isn't on Barry's hot seat especially if the Badgers flame out down the stretch....lose in the first round of the WCHA playoffs.

[Timothy A]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I wonder if the drop in offense is directed related to the 1 1 3. How else does a guy like Zengerlee just fall off the face of the earth and someone as heralded Kerdiles seem mostly invisible? (though he is young and getting manhandled along the boards). I wonder if Zengerlee, or others, might bolt due to the system....

I think Eaves is under some sort of pressure. If you watch his postgame news conference from last Friday, he had a look in his eyes of "ask me the wrong question and I'll kill you". The thought just came to my mind, was the 2nd Andy asking questions Chuck? He looked so awkward in his postgame locker room speech too on Sunday. It's in direct contrast to the hallway postgame news conferences from the road games I watch on youtube, where he seems so personable and at ease from earlier in the year or from the WI hockey digests on youtube.

[Almington]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Wrote about attendance, Mike Eaves, class sizes, etc. tonight if anyone here that never reads our website cares.

LINK

While that is a nice analysis I completely disagree with this statement:

But if this team has the potential I think it does next season, it would be borderline irresponsible to consider taking away the man that pieced it together.

Any coach should never be retained based on the POTENTIAL of his team when you have a TRACK RECORD of results to base your decision on. In fact, you made a very nice analysis of the results of Eaves tenure and then IGNORED all of the data in claiming that he should be retained based soley on the POTENTIAL of the team NEXT season alone and not the potential of Eaves to get UW to a consistently acceptable level beyond next season which based on his track record at UW thus far he will not be able to do.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I wonder if the drop in offense is directed related to the 1 1 3.

Certainly a good portion of the drop could be erased with a 20% pp. It's so bad there's no point in even talking about it anymore though. The pp is just inexplicable. I know they work on it but Eaves couldn't purposely coach it to be as bad as it is.

But to your point, we not only lack goal scoring 5-5, we're near the bottom in pp opportunities which also says we're not getting much 5-5 pressure offensively. Still if the pp was clicking all year I doubt we'd have quite so much talk about our awful offense. Plus we'd likely have won a few more games and be in contention for conference hardware and an NCAA bid.

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I think Eaves is under some sort of pressure. If you watch his postgame news conference from last Friday, he had a look in his eyes of "ask me the wrong question and I'll kill you". The thought just came to my mind, was the 2nd Andy asking questions Chuck? He looked so awkward in his postgame locker room speech too on Sunday. It's in direct contrast to the hallway postgame news conferences from the road games I watch on youtube, where he seems so personable and at ease from earlier in the year or from the WI hockey digests on youtube.

Yes I was the other Andy asking questions at the press conference Friday. Two reasons why I'm sure he looked like that (at least Friday). 1, they lost to Minnesota. 2, one of the other reporters was nowhere to be found and held up the presser by 5 minutes.

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

While that is a nice analysis I completely disagree with this statement:



Any coach should never be retained based on the POTENTIAL of his team when you have a TRACK RECORD of results to base your decision on. In fact, you made a very nice analysis of the results of Eaves tenure and then IGNORED all of the data in claiming that he should be retained based soley on the POTENTIAL of the team NEXT season alone and not the potential of Eaves to get UW to a consistently acceptable level beyond next season which based on his track record at UW thus far he will not be able to do.

Understandable points to be sure. I guess the way I'm looking at it is that based on past history and what this team next season should have, it should be a year in which they contend for league titles and more. If I didn't see a reason to get excited for next year, I'd be right there with you holding the torch. I feel like he built the roster for next season, I'd like to see what he can do with it. Now, keep in mind I didn't say anything about beyond next year. Another mediocre season next year can't happen.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

While that is a nice analysis I completely disagree with this statement:



Any coach should never be retained based on the POTENTIAL of his team when you have a TRACK RECORD of results to base your decision on. In fact, you made a very nice analysis of the results of Eaves tenure and then IGNORED all of the data in claiming that he should be retained based soley on the POTENTIAL of the team NEXT season alone and not the potential of Eaves to get UW to a consistently acceptable level beyond next season which based on his track record at UW thus far he will not be able to do.

As I have stated in the past, I like Eaves well enough, but Almington has it right. The best long term measure of success is probably simple winning % and the absolute borderline for acceptability in winning % is .600 at a top program over time. My position has been all season that Mike has not accomplished his objectives in most years, regardless of the reasons. I think he's a good coach, but I do not see how anyone can sensibly expect his sub-par winning % to jump up over the next ten years in the same situation. Just the opposite in fact. Without change, one can very sensibly expect to have two very good years and very mixed results in the other eight.

Yes, next year's team may be awesome, and I tend to agree with Chuck that it could be very good. It just doesn't change anything. Ten years is a large enough sample to know what you have. Mike is a good, but currently not a great coach. I'm not anti-Eaves, it's just that Wisconsin Hockey demands more than he's been able to accomplish and I can't see any argument that effectively avoids coming to that conclusion.

[Innova]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Certainly a good portion of the drop could be erased with a 20% pp. It's so bad there's no point in even talking about it anymore though. The pp is just inexplicable. I know they work on it but Eaves couldn't purposely coach it to be as bad as it is.

But to your point, we not only lack goal scoring 5-5, we're near the bottom in pp opportunities which also says we're not getting much 5-5 pressure offensively. Still if the pp was clicking all year I doubt we'd have quite so much talk about our awful offense. Plus we'd likely have won a few more games and be in contention for conference hardware and an NCAA bid.

This got me curious so I decided to check the numbers. I used this page for my source.

Currently UW is 9 for 90 on the PP. 10%. Dead Last (59th) in D1.
Currently UW is averaging 2.07 goals per game. 50th in D1.

The average number of PP goals scored by D1 teams is 22 (18.26% of 120 attempts). If you give Wisconsin 13 more PP goals, their gpg goes up to 2.50. This puts them at a tie for 37th.

Yes, the PP has been bad. But our offense would stink even with a good PP. Minnesota has the most PP goals, with 35. If we had 35 ppg instead of 9, our goals per game would be 2.91, about 28th in D1.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

This got me curious so I decided to check the numbers. I used this page for my source.

Currently UW is 9 for 90 on the PP. 10%. Dead Last (59th) in D1.
Currently UW is averaging 2.07 goals per game. 50th in D1.

The average number of PP goals scored by D1 teams is 22 (18.26% of 120 attempts). If you give Wisconsin 13 more PP goals, their gpg goes up to 2.50. This puts them at a tie for 37th.

Yes, the PP has been bad. But our offense would stink even with a good PP. Minnesota has the most PP goals, with 35. If we had 35 ppg instead of 9, our goals per game would be 2.91, about 28th in D1.

Good work! But now look at what 13 more goals might do to our win/ loss/ tie record.

Edit: Of course our O would have to stink less to get more opportunities too. I believe we're in the bottom 4 there as well.

[Almington]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Understandable points to be sure. I guess the way I'm looking at it is that based on past history and what this team next season should have, it should be a year in which they contend for league titles and more. If I didn't see a reason to get excited for next year, I'd be right there with you holding the torch. I feel like he built the roster for next season, I'd like to see what he can do with it. Now, keep in mind I didn't say anything about beyond next year. Another mediocre season next year can't happen.

Look at the trends over the last 2 cycles:
Next season (2013-14) UW will be capable of ~0.650 to ~0.700 winning percentage and make the NCAAs as a solid seed,
the following year (2014-15) that will fall to ~0.550 and be (at best a bubble NCAA team),
the following year (2015-16) UW will drop to a sub 0.500 disaster with mostly Fr and So carrying the team,
then back to a ~0.600 to ~0.550 and be a low seed NCAA team similar to this season (2016-17).

Maybe the lows wont be so low (but they have been the past 2 cycles) and maybe they can go on a run this season. Fact of the matter is that sub-0.500 seasons every 4th years and missing the NCAAs 75% of the time (or even 50% of the time) just isn't good enough with the resources available at UW and that is what Eaves has given us in the last 8 seasons.

NCAA success is great, but ,to me, it alone does not outweigh the success deficiencies in NCAA tournament births, F5 trips and championships, and regular season conference hardware.

[Innova]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Good work! But now look at what 13 more goals might do to our win/ loss/ tie record.

Yeah, I thought about that....tough to assign which games we got those goals in though....but I bet we could devise a scenario where our 16-8-6 record goes to 25-4-1...or something like that. Just convert all ties to wins (6 goals), the 4 1-goal loses to ties (4 goals), and then 3 of those 4 ties to wins (the last 3 extra goals). Of course that would be the best case scenario....but that is what we are talking about here, right?

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Look at the trends over the last 2 cycles:
Next season (2013-14) UW will be capable of ~0.650 to ~0.700 winning percentage and make the NCAAs as a solid seed,
the following year (2014-15) that will fall to ~0.550 and be (at best a bubble NCAA team),
the following year (2015-16) UW will drop to a sub 0.500 disaster with mostly Fr and So carrying the team,
then back to a ~0.600 to ~0.550 and be a low seed NCAA team similar to this season (2016-17).

Maybe the lows wont be so low (but they have been the past 2 cycles) and maybe they can go on a run this season. Fact of the matter is that sub-0.500 seasons every 4th years and missing the NCAAs 75% of the time (or even 50% of the time) just isn't good enough with the resources available at UW and that is what Eaves has given us in the last 8 seasons.

NCAA success is great, but ,to me, it alone does not outweigh the success deficiencies in NCAA tournament births, F5 trips and championships, and regular season conference hardware.

You won't get an argument out of me here. I agree wholeheartedly.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Yeah, I thought about that....tough to assign which games we got those goals in though....but I bet we could devise a scenario where our 16-8-6 record goes to 25-4-1...or something like that. Just convert all ties to wins (6 goals), the 4 1-goal loses to ties (4 goals), and then 3 of those 4 ties to wins (the last 3 extra goals). Of course that would be the best case scenario....but that is what we are talking about here, right?

I think that if you convert nothing to wins our 13-10-7 record would worse case be 13-2-15! A .683 win %. I wonder how that would work in the PWR??

[Almington]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

Good work! But now look at what 13 more goals might do to our win/ loss/ tie record.

That's very subjective to when those 13 goals were scored, the real question is what would that do to UW's scoring margin:

Currently: UW is 28th in scoring margin 30 games 68 gf 2.27 gfa 62 ga 2.07 gaa +0.20 gpg

Increasing that to 2.50 gfa would increase the scoring margin to +0.43 gpg which would put UW 19th.

That would likely give UW around 4 more wins (and fewer losses/ties) this season - a record of 17-8-5 (or so).

Given that UW's team gaa is around 2.07, moving from 2.25 to 2.50 gfa would have a huge impact on the W/L record. Top teams generally have a scoring margin in excess of +1.00 (which makes sense since they win the majority of their games), elite teams are over 1.50.

[Innova]

Re: WISCONSIN Hockey Vol. XXIV - Craziest Season Of All Time

I think that if you convert nothing to wins our 13-10-7 record would worse case be 13-2-15! A .683 win %. I wonder how that would work in the PWR??

This is kind of fun. The worst case scenario is:

NMU 1 goal, still lose.
CC 2 goals, still lose.
Minn 1 goal, still lose.
Minn St 1 goal, still lose.
Minn St 1 goal, still lose.
ND 2 goals, still lose.


That takes care of 8 goals, with no changes in the record. Then just pick 5 of the 1-goal loses and convert them to ties and you end up with: 16-3-11.