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Priceless
01-01-2013, 02:26 PM
First, a little history. Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator (http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2013/rankings.diy.shtml) we now have 10 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 19 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 141 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 141 teams, 102 (72.3%) that qualified as of the January 1 PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 35 of the 40 (87.5%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the January 1 PWR have made the tournament. 30 of the 40 (75%) of teams ranked 5-8 made it. 25 of the 40 (62.5%) of teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2011 all of the top 12 teams in the January 1 PWR qualified. Last year saw the first #1 team (Ohio State) fall all the way out of the tournament. If your team doesn't appear below, take heart. In four of the last six years teams that were not in the top 25 of the PWR on January 1 earned at-large berths in the tournament. Last year, Union came from #25 to win the ECAC, earn a #1 seed and advance to the Frozen Four.

30 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. 10 of those teams came from the WCHA, including four by Colorado College. The futility at CC is even more staggering when you consider they fell from being a 1-seed once and a 2-seed twice. A feat that flies in the face of all odds. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Michigan State, Ohio State, Dartmouth and Vermont. In addition to the 10 times WCHA teams have fallen out of contention, eight have come from the CCHA, seven from Hockey East and four from the ECAC. When Bemidji State was part of the CHA they fell out of the tournament as well.

With all that in mind, here is the January 1 Pairwise:

1 Boston Coll(HE)
2 Quinnipiac(EC)
3 New Hampshire(HE)
4 Dartmouth(EC)
5 Notre Dame(CC)
6 Boston Univ(HE)
7 Minnesota (WC)
8 North Dakota (WC)
9 Miami (CC)
10 Yale (EC)
11 Robert Morris (AH)
12 Cornell (EC)
13 Denver U (WC)
14 Western Mich (CC)
15 Union (EC)
Autobid: Niagara

That gives us



Manchester (UNH) Providence (Brown) Toledo (BGSU) Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp Boston C Quinnipiac Dartmouth
Boston U North Dakota Minnesota Notre Dame
Robert Morris Miami Yale Cornell
Western Mich Niagara Union Denver


Even though the ECAC has five teams in the tournament, the Quinnipiac-Union game can be changed. An easy swap is to send them to Manchester for Western Michigan. We can further boost attendance in both Providence and Toledo by switching Yale and Miami. The only thing that might save attendance in Grand Rapids is if Michigan has a great second half and snags a bid. Attendance in Manchester would be fine with both UNH and BU there.

The new brackets:



Manchester (UNH) Providence (Brown) Toledo (BGSU) Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp Boston C Quinnipiac Dartmouth
Boston U North Dakota Minnesota Notre Dame
Robert Morris Yale Miami Cornell
Union Niagara Western Mich Denver


The TUC line:

25 Ohio*State 0.5049
26 CO*College 0.5029
---
27 Vermont 0.4990
28 RPI 0.4975
29 Ferris*State 0.4964

WeAreNDHockey
01-01-2013, 03:04 PM
We can further boost attendance in both Providence and Toledo by switching Yale and Miami. The only thing that might save attendance in Grand Rapids is if Michigan has a great second half and snags a bid.



Having both Michigan and Miami in Fort Wayne didn't do much to help attendance there in 2010. Official attendance for the regional final was around 3000 but the actual crowd passing through the doors was much less due to some unused tickets. Fans used the late start on Sunday as an excuse. Fort Wayne is about the same distance to Ann arbor as is Grand Rapids, and Toledo is further away from Oxford than Fort Wayne. With two regionals so close together this season I think the crowds in both Toledo and Grand Rapids are going to give further credence to the people (of which I am not one) who want to move the opening rounds back to campus sites. You'd need 8 schools from Ohio, Michigan or Indiana being in these two regionals for decent crowds.

*ETA*
Notre Dame, despite having little history of post season hockey, actually brought the most fans to GR in 2007 and 2009, and had just about as many fans as anyone in the building in 2004. Crowds still sucked, just sayin'...

Priceless
01-01-2013, 03:14 PM
Having both Michigan and Miami in Fort Wayne didn't do much to help attendance there in 2010. Official attendance for the regional final was around 3000 but the actual crowd passing through the doors was much less due to some unused tickets. Fans used the late start on Sunday as an excuse. Fort Wayne is about the same distance to Ann arbor as is Grand Rapids, and Toledo is further away from Oxford than Fort Wayne. With two regionals so close together this season I think the crowds in both Toledo and Grand Rapids are going to give further credence to the people who want to move the opening rounds back to campus sites. You'd need 8 schools from Ohio, Michigan or Indiana being in these two regionals for decent crowds.

*ETA*
Notre Dame, despite having no little history of post season hockey, actually brought the most fans to GR in 2007 and 2009, and had just about as many fans as anyone in the building in 2004. Crowds still sucked, just sayin'...

I think the attendance out west is going to suck anyway no matter who makes the tournament. I also expect the NCAA to do whatever it can (within reason) to boost attendance. The NCAA is hoping against hope that Minnesota and Michigan (and maybe Wisconsin) have a great second half and they can stick them in Grand Rapids.

Fighting Sioux 23
01-01-2013, 03:28 PM
Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?

gscott13
01-01-2013, 03:48 PM
Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/

typically, they give the autobid spot to whomever is in first place in AH as a placeholder because usually the only team to get in is the autobid... this year, RMU is 11th in the PW, but 4-3-1 in conference where Niagara is 9-0-1 in conference. I think the assumption being made in this scenario is that AH would get two in at this point with RMU on the basis of their PW and NU on the strength of their conference record.

that said, the same was not done for SCSU which is the first team out in this scenario. They are leading the WCHA. If they were locked in as the conference autobid, a la Niagara, it would bump Union which would presumably change a lot. I would opt for SCSU's inclusion from a consistency of methodology stance. Current Division Leaders get the auto-bids and the fill out the remaining spots based on the current PW rankings

BC/HE
01-01-2013, 03:48 PM
Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?

The first place team is assumed to be the autobid winner in each conference until proven otherwise with bracketology. USCHO has always done that in their bracketology as well. Determining first goes by winning percentage because not all teams have played the same number of games in this case. Otherwise St. Cloud would also be an autobid as they have the most points in the WCHA whereas North Dakota 'owns' the autobid as of now. Perhaps you could tweak it to give St. Cloud fans an autobid instead.
The PWR comes directly from this site under the rankings tab.

Fighting Sioux 23
01-01-2013, 04:01 PM
The first place team is assumed to be the autobid winner in each conference until proven otherwise with bracketology. USCHO has always done that in their bracketology as well. Determining first goes by winning percentage because not all teams have played the same number of games in this case. Otherwise St. Cloud would also be an autobid as they have the most points in the WCHA whereas North Dakota 'owns' the autobid as of now. Perhaps you could tweak it to give St. Cloud fans an autobid instead.
The PWR comes directly from this site under the rankings tab.

I understand where the PWR comes from, but depending on the site, you get different PWR rankings. For example, SiouxSports' PWR differs from USCHO's PWR.

As for Niagara, I wouldn't include them as an autobid in January. My guess is that either Bobby Mo will win the autobid, or they will fall out of the top 16.

At the end of the day, it is fun to track the PWR as it changes throughout January, February, and March.

Priceless
01-01-2013, 04:03 PM
Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?

Yes. I get my Pairwise from the slack.net site I posted before.


http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/

typically, they give the autobid spot to whomever is in first place in AH as a placeholder because usually the only team to get in is the autobid... this year, RMU is 11th in the PW, but 4-3-1 in conference where Niagara is 9-0-1 in conference. I think the assumption being made in this scenario is that AH would get two in at this point with RMU on the basis of their PW and NU on the strength of their conference record.

that said, the same was not done for SCSU which is the first team out in this scenario. They are leading the WCHA. If they were locked in as the conference autobid, a la Niagara, it would bump Union which would presumably change a lot. I would opt for SCSU's inclusion from a consistency of methodology stance. Current Division Leaders get the auto-bids and the fill out the remaining spots based on the current PW rankings

I honestly didn't notice that St Cloud had the most points in the WCHA, but the explanation below will suffice. If SCSU (or another school) earns the autobid based on win % then I'll put them in the bracketology.

It wouldn't change anything. In the original bracketology, simply exchange Union for St Cloud and leave them in Toledo and leave Western in Manchester.


The first place team is assumed to be the autobid winner in each conference until proven otherwise with bracketology. USCHO has always done that in their bracketology as well. Determining first goes by winning percentage because not all teams have played the same number of games in this case. Otherwise St. Cloud would also be an autobid as they have the most points in the WCHA whereas North Dakota 'owns' the autobid as of now. Perhaps you could tweak it to give St. Cloud fans an autobid instead.

Priceless
01-01-2013, 04:05 PM
I understand where the PWR comes from, but depending on the site, you get different PWR rankings. For example, SiouxSports' PWR differs from USCHO's PWR.
Seriously? I had not even checked. Do we know the reason for the disparity?

Fighting Sioux 23
01-01-2013, 04:16 PM
Seriously? I had not even checked. Do we know the reason for the disparity?

I haven't really looked at it too in depth just yet. Not sure why there would be a disparity, but I've noticed that of the main three sites that I check for PWR (SS, USCHO, and CHN), they have rarely agreed so far this season...although it appears that CHN and USCHO agree currently.

burgie12
01-01-2013, 04:18 PM
Seriously? I had not even checked. Do we know the reason for the disparity?
SiouxSports doesn't include Ohio State in their ranking, but that still doesn't explain why they're listing Robert Morris with comparison wins over Miami and Yale. Or why all of the RPIs are off by as much as a hundredth.

Fighting Sioux 23
01-01-2013, 04:24 PM
SiouxSports doesn't include Ohio State in their ranking, but that still doesn't explain why they're listing Robert Morris with comparison wins over Miami and Yale. Or why all of the RPIs are off by as much as a hundredth.

According to SS, Robert Morris wins the comparison with Miami 2-1, due to a head to head victory, and winning the common opponents element (losing RPI element). Robert Morris wins the Yale comparison 2-0, winning both the RPI and common opponents elements. SS has Robert Morris sweeping Ohio State, but they actually went 1-0-1 in their matchup.

Looks like Siouxsports is wrong in this situation.

WeAreNDHockey
01-01-2013, 05:05 PM
Every year the different sites have a few different PWR results leading up to selection Sunday. We always wonder if someone is using a different rule (RPI to break all ties, etc), and then we all wonder what the precise rules are.

SJHovey
01-01-2013, 05:16 PM
Every year the different sites have a few different PWR results leading up to selection Sunday. We always wonder if someone is using a different rule (RPI to break all ties, etc), and then we all wonder what the precise rules are.

ss.com has occasionally had a different pwr over the years. I seem to recall reading an explanation, maybe by Jim Dahl, but I don't recall what it was.

burgie12
01-01-2013, 05:20 PM
SS has Robert Morris sweeping Ohio State, but they actually went 1-0-1 in their matchup.

Looks like Siouxsports is wrong in this situation.
That explains most of it. Ohio State's record is 7-8-5, but it's listed as 7-9-4 on SiouxSports' KRACH page (http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/krach/). I expect that that is what has inflated RMU's RPI by a hundredth (flipping the Yale comparison).

romo
01-01-2013, 06:05 PM
That explains most of it. Ohio State's record is 7-8-5, but it's listed as 7-9-4 on SiouxSports' KRACH page (http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/krach/). I expect that that is what has inflated RMU's RPI by a hundredth (flipping the Yale comparison).

Dont know its of any signficance ,but RMU won a shoot out at the conclusion of the 2-2 tie.Ohio States
league recognizes them the AHA doesnt.

aparch
01-01-2013, 06:44 PM
Dont know its of any signficance ,but RMU won a shoot out at the conclusion of the 2-2 tie. Ohio States league recognizes them the AHA doesnt.Doesn't matter. The NCAA ignores the shootout the CCHA (and only the CCHA) uses.

The CCHA even keeps records as: Wins - Losses - Ties - Shootout Wins. The shootout wins category is only used to award CCHA league points to the winner of the shootout. It is NOT used for anything NCAA related.

WeAreNDHockey
01-01-2013, 06:45 PM
Dont know its of any signficance ,but RMU won a shoot out at the conclusion of the 2-2 tie.Ohio States
league recognizes them the AHA doesnt.

Don't count at all for the RPI.

komey1
01-01-2013, 08:23 PM
That could be why Sioux Sports error though.

AdamBC
01-01-2013, 10:01 PM
Having both Michigan and Miami in Fort Wayne didn't do much to help attendance there in 2010. Official attendance for the regional final was around 3000 but the actual crowd passing through the doors was much less due to some unused tickets. Fans used the late start on Sunday as an excuse. Fort Wayne is about the same distance to Ann arbor as is Grand Rapids, and Toledo is further away from Oxford than Fort Wayne. With two regionals so close together this season I think the crowds in both Toledo and Grand Rapids are going to give further credence to the people (of which I am not one) who want to move the opening rounds back to campus sites. You'd need 8 schools from Ohio, Michigan or Indiana being in these two regionals for decent crowds.

Well, Fort Wayne is a pretty boring town. I would assume that if the NCAA didn't make the ticket prices ridiculous it would have had better local interest and attendance. The Komets do well enough in that regard. So you go to Fort Wayne - pre-game at Pierre's, pay through the nose for tickets and then a long drive back to wherever the alumni/fans actually live.