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  • Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

    First, a little history. Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 10 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 19 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 141 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 141 teams, 102 (72.3%) that qualified as of the January 1 PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 35 of the 40 (87.5%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the January 1 PWR have made the tournament. 30 of the 40 (75%) of teams ranked 5-8 made it. 25 of the 40 (62.5%) of teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2011 all of the top 12 teams in the January 1 PWR qualified. Last year saw the first #1 team (Ohio State) fall all the way out of the tournament. If your team doesn't appear below, take heart. In four of the last six years teams that were not in the top 25 of the PWR on January 1 earned at-large berths in the tournament. Last year, Union came from #25 to win the ECAC, earn a #1 seed and advance to the Frozen Four.

    30 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. 10 of those teams came from the WCHA, including four by Colorado College. The futility at CC is even more staggering when you consider they fell from being a 1-seed once and a 2-seed twice. A feat that flies in the face of all odds. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Michigan State, Ohio State, Dartmouth and Vermont. In addition to the 10 times WCHA teams have fallen out of contention, eight have come from the CCHA, seven from Hockey East and four from the ECAC. When Bemidji State was part of the CHA they fell out of the tournament as well.

    With all that in mind, here is the January 1 Pairwise:

    1 Boston Coll(HE)
    2 Quinnipiac(EC)
    3 New Hampshire(HE)
    4 Dartmouth(EC)
    5 Notre Dame(CC)
    6 Boston Univ(HE)
    7 Minnesota (WC)
    8 North Dakota (WC)
    9 Miami (CC)
    10 Yale (EC)
    11 Robert Morris (AH)
    12 Cornell (EC)
    13 Denver U (WC)
    14 Western Mich (CC)
    15 Union (EC)
    Autobid: Niagara

    That gives us

    Code:
    Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)	Grand Rapids (Michigan)
    New Hamp		Boston C		Quinnipiac	Dartmouth
    Boston U		North Dakota		Minnesota	Notre Dame
    Robert Morris		Miami			Yale		Cornell
    Western Mich		Niagara			Union		Denver
    Even though the ECAC has five teams in the tournament, the Quinnipiac-Union game can be changed. An easy swap is to send them to Manchester for Western Michigan. We can further boost attendance in both Providence and Toledo by switching Yale and Miami. The only thing that might save attendance in Grand Rapids is if Michigan has a great second half and snags a bid. Attendance in Manchester would be fine with both UNH and BU there.

    The new brackets:

    Code:
    Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)	Grand Rapids (Michigan)
    New Hamp		Boston C		Quinnipiac	Dartmouth
    Boston U		North Dakota		Minnesota	Notre Dame
    Robert Morris		Yale			Miami		Cornell
    Union		        Niagara		        Western Mich	Denver
    The TUC line:

    25 Ohio*State 0.5049
    26 CO*College 0.5029
    ---
    27 Vermont 0.4990
    28 RPI 0.4975
    29 Ferris*State 0.4964

  • #2
    Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

    Originally posted by Priceless View Post

    We can further boost attendance in both Providence and Toledo by switching Yale and Miami. The only thing that might save attendance in Grand Rapids is if Michigan has a great second half and snags a bid.
    Having both Michigan and Miami in Fort Wayne didn't do much to help attendance there in 2010. Official attendance for the regional final was around 3000 but the actual crowd passing through the doors was much less due to some unused tickets. Fans used the late start on Sunday as an excuse. Fort Wayne is about the same distance to Ann arbor as is Grand Rapids, and Toledo is further away from Oxford than Fort Wayne. With two regionals so close together this season I think the crowds in both Toledo and Grand Rapids are going to give further credence to the people (of which I am not one) who want to move the opening rounds back to campus sites. You'd need 8 schools from Ohio, Michigan or Indiana being in these two regionals for decent crowds.

    *ETA*
    Notre Dame, despite having little history of post season hockey, actually brought the most fans to GR in 2007 and 2009, and had just about as many fans as anyone in the building in 2004. Crowds still sucked, just sayin'...
    Last edited by WeAreNDHockey; 01-01-2013, 02:14 PM.

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    • #3
      Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

      Originally posted by WeAreNDHockey View Post
      Having both Michigan and Miami in Fort Wayne didn't do much to help attendance there in 2010. Official attendance for the regional final was around 3000 but the actual crowd passing through the doors was much less due to some unused tickets. Fans used the late start on Sunday as an excuse. Fort Wayne is about the same distance to Ann arbor as is Grand Rapids, and Toledo is further away from Oxford than Fort Wayne. With two regionals so close together this season I think the crowds in both Toledo and Grand Rapids are going to give further credence to the people who want to move the opening rounds back to campus sites. You'd need 8 schools from Ohio, Michigan or Indiana being in these two regionals for decent crowds.

      *ETA*
      Notre Dame, despite having no little history of post season hockey, actually brought the most fans to GR in 2007 and 2009, and had just about as many fans as anyone in the building in 2004. Crowds still sucked, just sayin'...
      I think the attendance out west is going to suck anyway no matter who makes the tournament. I also expect the NCAA to do whatever it can (within reason) to boost attendance. The NCAA is hoping against hope that Minnesota and Michigan (and maybe Wisconsin) have a great second half and they can stick them in Grand Rapids.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

        Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

        Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?
        North Dakota
        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

          Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
          Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

          Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?
          http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi...kings/d-i-men/

          typically, they give the autobid spot to whomever is in first place in AH as a placeholder because usually the only team to get in is the autobid... this year, RMU is 11th in the PW, but 4-3-1 in conference where Niagara is 9-0-1 in conference. I think the assumption being made in this scenario is that AH would get two in at this point with RMU on the basis of their PW and NU on the strength of their conference record.

          that said, the same was not done for SCSU which is the first team out in this scenario. They are leading the WCHA. If they were locked in as the conference autobid, a la Niagara, it would bump Union which would presumably change a lot. I would opt for SCSU's inclusion from a consistency of methodology stance. Current Division Leaders get the auto-bids and the fill out the remaining spots based on the current PW rankings

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

            Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
            Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

            Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?
            The first place team is assumed to be the autobid winner in each conference until proven otherwise with bracketology. USCHO has always done that in their bracketology as well. Determining first goes by winning percentage because not all teams have played the same number of games in this case. Otherwise St. Cloud would also be an autobid as they have the most points in the WCHA whereas North Dakota 'owns' the autobid as of now. Perhaps you could tweak it to give St. Cloud fans an autobid instead.
            The PWR comes directly from this site under the rankings tab.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

              Originally posted by BC/HE View Post
              The first place team is assumed to be the autobid winner in each conference until proven otherwise with bracketology. USCHO has always done that in their bracketology as well. Determining first goes by winning percentage because not all teams have played the same number of games in this case. Otherwise St. Cloud would also be an autobid as they have the most points in the WCHA whereas North Dakota 'owns' the autobid as of now. Perhaps you could tweak it to give St. Cloud fans an autobid instead.
              The PWR comes directly from this site under the rankings tab.
              I understand where the PWR comes from, but depending on the site, you get different PWR rankings. For example, SiouxSports' PWR differs from USCHO's PWR.

              As for Niagara, I wouldn't include them as an autobid in January. My guess is that either Bobby Mo will win the autobid, or they will fall out of the top 16.

              At the end of the day, it is fun to track the PWR as it changes throughout January, February, and March.
              North Dakota
              National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                Why are you giving Niagara the autobid? Simply because they have the top win % in Atlantic Hockey?

                Also, where are you getting your pairwise rankings from?
                Yes. I get my Pairwise from the slack.net site I posted before.

                Originally posted by gscott13 View Post
                http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi...kings/d-i-men/

                typically, they give the autobid spot to whomever is in first place in AH as a placeholder because usually the only team to get in is the autobid... this year, RMU is 11th in the PW, but 4-3-1 in conference where Niagara is 9-0-1 in conference. I think the assumption being made in this scenario is that AH would get two in at this point with RMU on the basis of their PW and NU on the strength of their conference record.

                that said, the same was not done for SCSU which is the first team out in this scenario. They are leading the WCHA. If they were locked in as the conference autobid, a la Niagara, it would bump Union which would presumably change a lot. I would opt for SCSU's inclusion from a consistency of methodology stance. Current Division Leaders get the auto-bids and the fill out the remaining spots based on the current PW rankings
                I honestly didn't notice that St Cloud had the most points in the WCHA, but the explanation below will suffice. If SCSU (or another school) earns the autobid based on win % then I'll put them in the bracketology.

                It wouldn't change anything. In the original bracketology, simply exchange Union for St Cloud and leave them in Toledo and leave Western in Manchester.

                Originally posted by BC/HE View Post
                The first place team is assumed to be the autobid winner in each conference until proven otherwise with bracketology. USCHO has always done that in their bracketology as well. Determining first goes by winning percentage because not all teams have played the same number of games in this case. Otherwise St. Cloud would also be an autobid as they have the most points in the WCHA whereas North Dakota 'owns' the autobid as of now. Perhaps you could tweak it to give St. Cloud fans an autobid instead.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                  Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                  I understand where the PWR comes from, but depending on the site, you get different PWR rankings. For example, SiouxSports' PWR differs from USCHO's PWR.
                  Seriously? I had not even checked. Do we know the reason for the disparity?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                    Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                    Seriously? I had not even checked. Do we know the reason for the disparity?
                    I haven't really looked at it too in depth just yet. Not sure why there would be a disparity, but I've noticed that of the main three sites that I check for PWR (SS, USCHO, and CHN), they have rarely agreed so far this season...although it appears that CHN and USCHO agree currently.
                    North Dakota
                    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                      Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                      Seriously? I had not even checked. Do we know the reason for the disparity?
                      SiouxSports doesn't include Ohio State in their ranking, but that still doesn't explain why they're listing Robert Morris with comparison wins over Miami and Yale. Or why all of the RPIs are off by as much as a hundredth.
                      Go Red!!

                      National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                      Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

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                      • #12
                        Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                        Originally posted by burgie12 View Post
                        SiouxSports doesn't include Ohio State in their ranking, but that still doesn't explain why they're listing Robert Morris with comparison wins over Miami and Yale. Or why all of the RPIs are off by as much as a hundredth.
                        According to SS, Robert Morris wins the comparison with Miami 2-1, due to a head to head victory, and winning the common opponents element (losing RPI element). Robert Morris wins the Yale comparison 2-0, winning both the RPI and common opponents elements. SS has Robert Morris sweeping Ohio State, but they actually went 1-0-1 in their matchup.

                        Looks like Siouxsports is wrong in this situation.
                        North Dakota
                        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                          Every year the different sites have a few different PWR results leading up to selection Sunday. We always wonder if someone is using a different rule (RPI to break all ties, etc), and then we all wonder what the precise rules are.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by WeAreNDHockey View Post
                            Every year the different sites have a few different PWR results leading up to selection Sunday. We always wonder if someone is using a different rule (RPI to break all ties, etc), and then we all wonder what the precise rules are.
                            ss.com has occasionally had a different pwr over the years. I seem to recall reading an explanation, maybe by Jim Dahl, but I don't recall what it was.
                            That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                              Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                              SS has Robert Morris sweeping Ohio State, but they actually went 1-0-1 in their matchup.

                              Looks like Siouxsports is wrong in this situation.
                              That explains most of it. Ohio State's record is 7-8-5, but it's listed as 7-9-4 on SiouxSports' KRACH page. I expect that that is what has inflated RMU's RPI by a hundredth (flipping the Yale comparison).
                              Go Red!!

                              National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

                              Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

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