Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[komey1]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Not #1 seeds. It is specifically spelled out in the rulebook that #1 seeds are placed in their closest regional, period.

Trust me brother I wish it were so.

Denver was the #2 seed in 2010 and played in Albany while Wisconsin was #3 or 4 and in St. Paul. I believe this was done to eliminate a flight since Denver had to fly to any regional and Wisconsin could drive to St. Paul.

This won't move Quinnipiac to Toledo, as they would be able to drive to Providence.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

RPI's RPI is .4998. Is there a scenario of game results next Friday that would raise RPI's RPI to .5000, so that RPI would be a TUC at the TUC on Saturday?

Excuse me, sir. Seeing as how the VP is such a VIP, shouldn't we keep the PC on the QT? 'Cause if it leaks to the VC he could end up MIA, and then we'd all be put on KP.

[J.D.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

The committee would have a real easy job if the season played out as it is right now:

Northeast (UNH):

1. New Hampshire
2. Yale
3. Denver
4. St. Cloud State

East (Brown):

1. Quinnipiac
2. Miami
3. Dartmouth
4. Niagara

Midwest (Bowling Green):

1. Boston College
2. North Dakota
3. Notre Dame
4. Minnesota State

West (Michigan):

1. Minnesota
2. UMass-Lowell
3. Western Michigan
4. Boston University

[scoreboard]

Denver was the #2 seed in 2010 and played in Albany while Wisconsin was #3 or 4 and in St. Paul. I believe this was done to eliminate a flight since Denver had to fly to any regional and Wisconsin could drive to St. Paul.

This won't move Quinnipiac to Toledo, as they would be able to drive to Providence.

Quinnipiac right now is the overall #1 seed and if they stay there they will be placed in Providence. There is no question about that.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

This might help:

From Moy's column, supposedly copied from the Committee's instructions:

In setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts including competitive equity, financial success and likelihood of playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For the model, the following is a basic set of priorities:

• The top four teams as ranked by the committee are the four No. 1 seeds and will be placed in the bracket so that if all four teams advance to the Men’s Frozen Four, the No. 1 seed will play the No. 4 seed and the No. 2 seed will play the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.

• Host institutions that qualify will be placed at home.

• No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1-4.

• Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.

• Once the five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large teams are selected, the next step is to develop four groups from the committee’s ranking of 1-16. The top four teams are the No. 1 seeds. The next four are targeted as No. 2 seeds. The next four are No. 3 seeds and the last four are No. 4 seeds. These groupings will be referred to as “bands"

Please note the 2nd bulleted point: Host institutions are placed at home. I read that to mean that if UNH is a #1 seed, then, before anything else, they will be the #1 in Manchester.

Then, please note the 3rd bulleted point. #1 seeds are placed as close as possible to home, in order, (my emphasis), 1-4. I take this to mean that, after UNH is placed in Manchester, then the committee would start at #1. If Quinnipiac is the overall #1, they get placed in the closest possible region besides Manchester (remember, Manchester is already taken by UNH). This is obviously Providence. Then, the #2 overall, Minny, gets put in Grand Rapids, and finally, BC in Toledo.

Now, I agree totally with those who say this is bad for attendance. However, it seems the committee has decided that giving the #1 overall seed and its fans the privilege of being close to home is more important than attendance.

At least, that's my take.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Please note the 2nd bulleted point: Host institutions are placed at home. I read that to mean that if UNH is a #1 seed, then, before anything else, they will be the #1 in Manchester.

UNH will be placed in Manchester no matter where they are seeded. You're probably aware, but your post seems to indicate that this rule only applies to #1 seeds. Host schools that are not # 1 seeds can sometimes also effect where a #1 is placed. If the committee decides it is important to protect an overall #1 by moving them out of a regional that includes a host school playing a defacto home game, they have been known to do that. If UNH fell to the 4th seed band and the overall #1 was going to end go to Manchester based on geography they may well be moved to Providence.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

UNH will be placed in Manchester no matter where they are seeded. You're probably aware, but your post seems to indicate that this rule only applies to #1 seeds. Host schools that are not # 1 seeds can sometimes also effect where a #1 is placed. If the committee decides it is important to protect an overall #1 by moving them out of a regional that includes a host school playing a defacto home game, they have been known to do that. If UNH fell to the 4th seed band and the overall #1 was going to end go to Manchester based on geography they may well be moved to Providence.

You are, of course, correct, ND Hockey. I was trying to address the discussion above about BC ending up in Toledo. It seems that discussion has centered around UNH being a #1.

In fact, however, the discussion of BC being in Toledo is actually a sub set of the discussion: What happens if 3 of the 4 #1s are from the same part of the country? Answer: If none are host, the lowest seed of the 3 always ends up with the long trip.

[J.D.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

The committee would have a real easy job if the season played out as it is right now:

Northeast (UNH):

1. New Hampshire
2. Yale
3. Denver
4. St. Cloud State

East (Brown):

1. Quinnipiac
2. Miami
3. Dartmouth
4. Niagara

Midwest (Bowling Green):

1. Boston College
2. North Dakota
3. Notre Dame
4. Minnesota State

West (Michigan):

1. Minnesota
2. UMass-Lowell
3. Western Michigan
4. Boston University

Moy swapped Minnesota State and St. Cloud State and flipped the Miami/Dartmouth game with Yale/Denver.

He doesn't explain his reasoning for swapping St. Cloud and Minnesota State--don't understand why he would. Would St. Cloud bring some type of big crowd to Toledo that I'm not accounting for?

I'm also skeptical about flipping the Dartmouth and Yale games...do people think that would happen?

[Golden Tuuk]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Quinnipiac right now is the overall #1 seed and if they stay there they will be placed in Providence. There is no question about that.

You really think a committee of great hockey minds would make Quinepiac a number one seed? *****http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/lol-049.gif******

[Mile High Hockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

You really think a committee of great hockey minds would make Quinepiac a number one seed? *****http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/lol-049.gif******

Probably not Quinepiac...but maybe Quinnipiac. The Bobcats have been very impressive this season to date, and if they get a number one seed, they will have earned it.

Looking at Moy's Brackets, the Toledo Regional (BC v. SCSU; UND v. UND) looks like the group of death at this point.

[MarkEagleUSA]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

You really think a committee of great hockey minds would make Quinepiac a number one seed? *****http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/lol-049.gif******

Have you noticed our head coach is on the committee this year?

Probably not Quinepiac...but maybe Quinnipiac. The Bobcats have been very impressive this season to date, and if they get a number one seed, they will have earned it.

I know I'm biased, but if we can hold on to this thing over the next 7 weeks we will have earned it. While not the toughest schedule in the land, nor the easiest, we can only play the games that are scheduled.

Sure, we haven't done anything yet (1 tourney appearance), and we're part of the "EZAC", but that doesn't change the success we've had thus far.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Have you noticed our head coach is on the committee this year?

I know I'm biased, but if we can hold on to this thing over the next 7 weeks we will have earned it. While not the toughest schedule in the land, nor the easiest, we can only play the games that are scheduled.

Sure, we haven't done anything yet (1 tourney appearance), and we're part of the "EZAC", but that doesn't change the success we've had thus far.

Don't worry about what any one thinks. It's all according to the numbers. Reputation of a program doesn't enter in the least. Take a look at all the PWR primers on this site. They will help a lot with that.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I took a look at Moy's column. It's an interesting situation this week. And, it will be if it remains.

The things that stand out to me are:
1) Since Niagara is #16, and Quinnipiac as the overall #1 has earned the right to face Niagara in round one, then, it would have to be that BU would be opposite Minny.
2) In this scenario, Mankato and St Cloud are interchangeable as far as seeding goes. Same conference.
3) Western should be at Grand Rapids. And, that makes sense in a way. If BU is there, at #13, you have better bracket integrity if you also have #12 WMU there.
4) Then, there are options. Moy started by swapping Denver with Notre Dame to avoid DU/UND in the first round. That puts Notre Dame in Toledo, which is good.
4a) However, one could also choose first to put Miami in Toledo, rather than NoDame. (Can't have both, because Miami is a #2, and NoDame is a #3). So, if you choose to put Miami there, then the first swap is Miami for UND. And that solves the UND/DU problem.

Doing 4a) first gives:
Manchester: UNH (4), Mankato (15), Yale (5), NoDame (10)
Providence: QU (1), Niagara (16), NoDakota (6), Dartmouth (9)

Toledo: BC (3), SCSU (14), Miami (8), Denver (11)
Grand Rapids: Minny (2), BU (13), Lowell (7), WMU (12)

At this point, Moy swapped the Yale/NoDame game for the NoDakota/Dartmouth game to get Yale and Dartmouth closer to home. No objections about that.

And, you get:
Manchester: UNH (4), Mankato (15), NoDakota (6), Dartmouth (9)
Providence: QU (1), Niagara (16), Yale (5), NoDame (10)

Toledo: BC (3), SCSU (14), Miami (8), Denver (11)
Grand Rapids: Minny (2), BU (13), Lowell (7), WMU (12)

Now, I have one issue with both of these:
In the case I just wrote, BC has the easiest region on paper. In Moy's column, UNH had the easiest region on paper. (I am judging by combined seed numbers). But, I don't know what to do about that.

Comments? I am not sure which is better. It's just that both would make sense.

[LTsatch]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Imagine QU against Yale in a regional final, how cool would that be.

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

The bracketology for this week has been done to death so I'll stick to the pairwise history lesson for the week until games are played tomorrow.

Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator (currently down) we now have 10 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 19 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 141 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 141 teams, 109 (77.3%) that qualified as of the mid-January PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 37 of the 40 (92.5%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the mid-January PWR have made the tournament. 34 of the 40 (85%) teams ranked 5-8 made it. "Only" 26 of the 40 (65%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2005 11 of the top 12 teams in the mid-January PWR qualified. Last year Ohio State was still ranked #2 and fell all the way out of the tournament. All teams who earned an at-large bid were included in the mid-January PWR (Sorry Duluth). The 2006 Maine and 2010 Northern Michigan teams were the lowest-ranked at #24 to still earn a tournament invitation. Nine teams that were ranked #20 or below have risen to earn a spot in the tournament. I'm not one for prognostications, but #26 Wisconsin still has eight games vs TUC on the schedule and can make a lot of noise in the second half.

23 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in mid-January. Eight of those teams came from the WCHA. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Ohio State and Vermont. In addition to the eight times WCHA teams have fallen out of contention, six have come from Hockey East, five from the CCHA and four from the ECAC.