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  • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

    All the different scenarios I run have Denver in at 11th or 12th so a 3 seed. Even though the back to back loses against CC were very hard to shallow the rest can't hurt.
    Last edited by MagnessMan; 03-18-2013, 12:17 AM.
    Go Pioneers!

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    • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

      Quite a list Patman,

      Several interesting things to me:
      #1 is about UNH. Locked into being a 2 or a 3. As per the earlier discussion with Priceless, I would say that this means that UNH hosting will not affect which #1 goes where. The worst possibility for that would be in they ended up 8th.... But even then I don't think the committee would move any other #1s to avoid a 4, 8, x, x seed combo there.

      #2 is about who has clinched: QU, BC, Lowell, UNH, Miami, NoDak, and Minny. All other teams apparently have an off chance at being out.

      #3 is about teams no longer playing, but still eligible for the NCAAs. DU and WMU specifically. DU has high odds yet. WMU better than half, and I would guess that many of the out-runs for WMU had Conf Tourn upsets.
      Last edited by Numbers; 03-18-2013, 12:22 AM. Reason: Add NoDak to clinched list

      Comment


      • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
        Also, I believe to keep the Mk and DU compares, in the WCHA, you need, ND, Mk in the first Round: Minn, SC in Round 2, and Minn to win.

        AK this close: .0001 to RM in the pairs:
        AH:Ni over Ct in the final
        EC: Br and Un in semi, Un and Qn in F and 3rd
        HE:BC over Pv in the final
        CC: Nt over Mi in the final
        WC: ND, MK; Minn, SC; Minn

        Leaves AK and RPI tied in the PWR, with RPI winning the tb both ways. In this case, the RPIs are AK: .5057, RM .5058, StL .5056. I can't find a way to lower RM's RPI without raising StL's. Can anyone else help out poor AK-F
        Your Picks
        Atlantic Hockey
        Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
        Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
        Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut
        CCHA
        Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
        Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
        Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Miami
        ECAC
        Semifinal #2: Union defeats Yale
        Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
        Championship game: Union defeats Quinnipiac
        Consolation game: Yale defeats Brown
        Hockey East
        Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University
        Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
        Championship game: Boston College defeats Providence
        WCHA
        Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
        Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
        Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
        Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
        Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State

        Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi...#ixzz2Nrj9va7R

        Keys: No autobids, CT over Mercy, Notre Dame and Union win conference titles

        Comment


        • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

          Originally posted by Patman View Post
          Just the luck of it I suppose.

          10,000 monte carlo iterations (MOE=0.5%), and I'll stop there... I could run to 100,000. It'd take about two hours, but I'm going to bed and Jim Dahl will have it in the morning for all 2^17*3 scenarios.

          Code:
             NAME   NCAA     S1     S2     S3     S4   CONF  ATLRG    TUC
          43   Nt 0.8128 0.1118 0.0861 0.4353 0.1796 0.2502 0.5626 1.0000
          Wow. I thought it would be closer to 100%

          Comment


          • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

            Originally posted by Priceless View Post
            Your Picks
            Atlantic Hockey
            Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
            Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
            Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut
            CCHA
            Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
            Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
            Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Miami
            ECAC
            Semifinal #2: Union defeats Yale
            Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
            Championship game: Union defeats Quinnipiac
            Consolation game: Yale defeats Brown
            Hockey East
            Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University
            Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
            Championship game: Boston College defeats Providence
            WCHA
            Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
            Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
            Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
            Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
            Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State

            Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi...#ixzz2Nrj9va7R

            Keys: No autobids, CT over Mercy, Notre Dame and Union win conference titles
            Thanks PL. I missed that Michigan could lose to Miami and stay TUC (.5000 - oh so close).
            And, really, it's all key. The complete list of possibilities is:

            AK needs:
            AH: Nia over Ct in finals
            CC: Nt over Mm in finals
            EC: Un is champ, QU has a win (tie in conso game not enough)
            HE: BC to win over Pv in finals
            WC: Mk, CC lose Thurs(has to be Thurs to protect the Mk and DU compares), UW not champion.

            Obviously, that is a rare combo. By my count, it's 13 games that have to fall one way, and then also the Qn split (a 3/4 chance), and Wisco losing one of 2 (a 3/4 chance). So, the chance is: (1/2)^13*(3/4)^2 of this happening. That's about 1/14,000. So, it makes sense that Patman didn't see it.
            Last edited by Numbers; 03-18-2013, 02:03 AM.

            Comment


            • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

              I am attempting to list odds according to Patman, in order of the present PWR. My first time to try a "code". I adjusted the ones of these that are obviously needing the auto-bid, to show that.
              Code:
              QU		100
              Minn		100
              Miami		100
              BC		100
              Yale		97.1
              Lowell		100
              UND		100
              UNH		100
              NoDame          81.3
              Mankato	        99.6
              Niagara	        96.0
              SCSU		94.2
              DU		97.8
              WMU		56.6
              Un		41.7
              Providence	25.0(auto)
              Wis		13.4(auto{3games} +  ~.9)
              BU		25.8(auto +  ~.8)
              RPI		8.4
              AK		~0 but not quite
              RM		0.7
              Michigan	25.0(auto)
              Mercyhurst	25.0(auto)
              Ohio State	25.0(auto)
              U-Conn	        25.0(auto)
              Canisius	25.0(auto)
              Brown		25.0(auto)
              ColoColl	12.5(auto – 3 games)
              Some analysis:
              The RPI gap between Denver and WMU, which is clearly the big jump here: DU = .5351, WMU=.5295. That's a big jump, so it's predictable that there would be a clear gap here.

              There is a smaller gap to Union at .5264. At this point (15th) there is heightened danger of Auto Bids. And, finally, Wisco-RPI and that is 4 teams, all very close.

              NoDame looks like an outlier here. We remember that many of their compares have been volatile recently. Particularly, NoDame is vulnerable to Mich falling away from TUC status.

              Of the bubble teams, RPI actually has the best chance at an at-large. Wisco, RPI, and barely Fairbanks have <1% chance of at-large.
              Last edited by Numbers; 03-18-2013, 01:17 AM.

              Comment


              • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                I am attempting to list odds according to Patman, in order of the present PWR. My first time to try a "code". I adjusted the ones of these that are obviously needing the auto-bid, to show that.
                Code:
                QU		100
                Minn		100
                Miami		100
                BC		100
                Yale		97.1
                Lowell		100
                UND		100
                UNH		100
                NoDame          81.3
                Mankato	        99.6
                Niagara	        96.0
                SCSU		94.2
                DU		97.8
                WMU		56.6
                Un		41.7
                Providence	25.0(auto)
                Wis		13.4(auto{3games} +  ~.9)
                BU		25.8(auto +  ~.8)
                RPI		8.4
                AK		~0 but not quite
                RM		0.7
                Michigan	25.0(auto)
                Mercyhurst	25.0(auto)
                Ohio State	25.0(auto)
                U-Conn	        25.0(auto)
                Canisius	25.0(auto)
                Brown		25.0(auto)
                ColoColl	12.5(auto – 3 games)
                Thanks for all the info, and I hate to waste your time, but what's the .4 scenario where Mankato misses out?

                Comment


                • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                  Originally posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
                  Thanks for all the info, and I hate to waste your time, but what's the .4 scenario where Mankato misses out?
                  I am sure this is not all, but here is one:
                  Your Picks
                  Atlantic Hockey
                  Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
                  Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
                  Championship game: Connecticut defeats Niagara
                  CCHA
                  Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
                  Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Miami
                  Championship game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame
                  ECAC
                  Semifinal #2: Union defeats Yale
                  Semifinal #1: Brown defeats Quinnipiac
                  Championship game: Brown defeats Union
                  Consolation game: Yale defeats Quinnipiac
                  Hockey East
                  Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College
                  Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
                  Championship game: Providence defeats Boston University
                  WCHA
                  Play-in #2: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
                  Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
                  Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota
                  Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
                  Championship game: Colorado College defeats St. Cloud State


                  Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi...#ixzz2Ns48QpxG

                  5 upsets, and just the right mix of other results so Mankato ends up 12th.

                  And, really, Patman did all the work for those odds. He wrote his own program to do the calculations and to do the Monte Carlos

                  Comment


                  • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    I am looking hard. I am running up against a situation where AK loses to compare to Br, Da, Cr and RM by slight amounts in the RPI - like .0010, and I can't find a way to get them over the hump. It you want to try, I know this much - you need Michigan to win the CCHA.
                    If you saw Michigan beat Western Michigan Saturday night, you wouldn't expect anyone to beat them.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                      Amazing. I can get Yale as high as #3 and as low as out from even a single autobid. So they'll be somewhere between 3 and out.

                      By the way, to answer my own question above I found a way to get Yale out with a consolation loss to QPac, but it requires at least 3 autobids, because I can't seem to get them lower than 14.
                      Last edited by goblue78; 03-18-2013, 09:14 AM.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                        My first run is very close to that posted by PatMan, summarized by Numbers above. This is supposed to be comprehensive, but errors are always a possibility. More detail later.

                        Quinnipiac #1 100% invite
                        Minnesota #2 100% invite
                        Miami #3-8 100% invite
                        Boston College #3-12 100% invite
                        Yale #3-18 96.9% invite
                        Mass.-Lowell #3-11 100% invite
                        North Dakota #3-12 100% invite
                        New Hampshire #5-13 100% invite
                        Notre Dame #3-19 81.8% invite
                        Mankato #3-14 99.7% invite
                        Niagara #4-15 95.9% invite
                        St Cloud #3-15 94.1% invite
                        Denver #7-15 98% invite
                        Western Michigan #13-18 56.5% invite
                        Union #8-22 41.5% invite
                        Wisconsin #10-23 13.3% invite
                        Providence #13-26 25.1% invite
                        Boston University #12-23 25.8% invite
                        Rensselaer #13-21 8.2% invite
                        Alaska #16-27 <.01% invite (43 of 393216 scenarios)
                        Cornell #18-27 No invites
                        Brown #16-29 Needs to win for invite
                        Dartmouth #18-25 No invites
                        Robert Morris #14-27 .7% invite
                        Colorado College #18-32 Needs to win for invite
                        Ohio State #17-32 Needs to win for invite
                        Michigan #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                        Connecticut #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                        Canisius NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                        Mercyhurst #32-NonTUC Needs to win for invite

                        Anyone see anything outside those ranges?

                        Comment


                        • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                          Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                          My first run is very close to that posted by PatMan, summarized by Numbers above. This is supposed to be comprehensive, but errors are always a possibility. More detail later.

                          Quinnipiac #1 100% invite
                          Minnesota #2 100% invite
                          Miami #3-8 100% invite
                          Boston College #3-12 100% invite
                          Yale #3-18 96.9% invite
                          Mass.-Lowell #3-11 100% invite
                          North Dakota #3-12 100% invite
                          New Hampshire #5-13 100% invite
                          Notre Dame #3-19 81.8% invite
                          Mankato #3-14 99.7% invite
                          Niagara #4-15 95.9% invite
                          St Cloud #3-15 94.1% invite
                          Denver #7-15 98% invite
                          Western Michigan #13-18 56.5% invite
                          Union #8-22 41.5% invite
                          Wisconsin #10-23 13.3% invite
                          Providence #13-26 25.1% invite
                          Boston University #12-23 25.8% invite
                          Rensselaer #13-21 8.2% invite
                          Alaska #16-27 <.01% invite (43 of 393216 scenarios)
                          Cornell #18-27 No invites
                          Brown #16-29 Needs to win for invite
                          Dartmouth #18-25 No invites
                          Robert Morris #14-27 .7% invite
                          Colorado College #18-32 Needs to win for invite
                          Ohio State #17-32 Needs to win for invite
                          Michigan #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                          Connecticut #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                          Canisius NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                          Mercyhurst #32-NonTUC Needs to win for invite

                          Anyone see anything outside those ranges?
                          Thanks Jim. Very cool. Do you have idea under what circumstances UNH ends up #13?

                          Comment


                          • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            Thanks Jim. Very cool. Do you have idea under what circumstances UNH ends up #13?
                            It's even rarer than Alaska making the tournament, I'm seeing it in 4 possible outcomes. This one requires a very particular tie in the 3rd place game to knock Brown out of being a TUC, while still keeping Yale ahead of UNH: http://goo.gl/Y0QFl

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                              My first run is very close to that posted by PatMan, summarized by Numbers above. This is supposed to be comprehensive, but errors are always a possibility. More detail later.

                              Quinnipiac #1 100% invite
                              Minnesota #2 100% invite
                              Miami #3-8 100% invite
                              Boston College #3-12 100% invite
                              Yale #3-18 96.9% invite
                              Mass.-Lowell #3-11 100% invite
                              North Dakota #3-12 100% invite
                              New Hampshire #5-13 100% invite
                              Notre Dame #3-19 81.8% invite
                              Mankato #3-14 99.7% invite
                              Niagara #4-15 95.9% invite
                              St Cloud #3-15 94.1% invite
                              Denver #7-15 98% invite
                              Western Michigan #13-18 56.5% invite
                              Union #8-22 41.5% invite
                              Wisconsin #10-23 13.3% invite
                              Providence #13-26 25.1% invite
                              Boston University #12-23 25.8% invite
                              Rensselaer #13-21 8.2% invite
                              Alaska #16-27 <.01% invite (43 of 393216 scenarios)
                              Cornell #18-27 No invites
                              Brown #16-29 Needs to win for invite
                              Dartmouth #18-25 No invites
                              Robert Morris #14-27 .7% invite
                              Colorado College #18-32 Needs to win for invite
                              Ohio State #17-32 Needs to win for invite
                              Michigan #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                              Connecticut #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                              Canisius NonTUC Needs to win for invite
                              Mercyhurst #32-NonTUC Needs to win for invite

                              Anyone see anything outside those ranges?
                              I assume your values are krach weighted... That they are close doesn't surprise me per se.

                              I think if I were to do what you did it would take about 10 hours... Divide that through for each additional processor to run on.
                              BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                              Jerseys I would like to have:
                              Skating Friar Jersey
                              AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
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                              • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                                Do all 18.2% of the possible scenarios leaving Notre Dame at home involve UM losing to Miami and falling out of TUC consideration? All the scenarios I run eliminating ND seem to involve that at the least.

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