Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Does anybody know if we will see any pairwise changes next year?

Nothing has been announced to my knowledge. I wouldn't be surprised if they tweaked a couple of the rules, but I wouldn't expect any big changes.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Does anybody know if we will see any pairwise changes next year?

I know one change I would like to see, and it came to mind after reading an article (here? CHN?) about Mercyhurst and the fact nearly every game they have played so far has been on the road. As long as the NCAA is going to use the RPI as the main criteria, tweak it so road game wins score more than home wins, and home losses hurt more than road ones. With the coming of the new conferences and many teams playing a much shorter conference schedule, many teams will be playing a lot more non-conference games. If the power teams end up playing 90% of those at home (as is the case for most of college basketball) it makes a sometimes unfair measuring stick even more unfair. I for one will be extremely disappointed if Notre Dame splits up their expected 14 annual non-conference game sites with 8 home-4 road-2 neutral site games. Making the RPI reward road wins more would either stop that, or make it less attractive for PWR points.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I know one change I would like to see, and it came to mind after reading an article (here? CHN?) about Mercyhurst and the fact nearly every game they have played so far has been on the road. As long as the NCAA is going to use the RPI as the main criteria, tweak it so road game wins score more than home wins, and home losses hurt more than road ones. With the coming of the new conferences and many teams playing a much shorter conference schedule, many teams will be playing a lot more non-conference games. If the power teams end up playing 90% of those at home (as is the case for most of college basketball) it makes a sometimes unfair measuring stick even more unfair. I for one will be extremely disappointed if Notre Dame splits up their expected 14 annual non-conference game sites with 8 home-4 road-2 neutral site games. Making the RPI reward road wins more would either stop that, or make it less attractive for PWR points.

So perhaps a revival of the bonus structure? I believe it was a 0.005 bonus for beating a top 15 team at home, 0.010 for beating a top 15 team on neutral ice, and a 0.015 for beating a top 15 team on the road. I could be off a zero there.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

So perhaps a revival of the bonus structure? I believe it was a 0.005 bonus for beating a top 15 team at home, 0.010 for beating a top 15 team on neutral ice, and a 0.015 for beating a top 15 team on the road. I could be off a zero there.

Something along those lines, but the "bonus" would be for every road win, and none at all for anything at home. I'm not sure of the exact %, but I believe the NCAA calculates basketball home wins as 0.6 wins and road wins as 1.4 wins, with the reverse for losses. Neutral site games still count 1 for 1.

I am really fearful of what the schedules for some teams are going to look like in the coming years, especially teams playing as few as 20 conference games. We see what they look like in basketball; load up on home games from lower tier leagues, pile up the wins.

The RPI protects against this a little with a strength of opponent component, but I don't think it will be enough protection if some teams begin routinely playing 10 or 12 non-conference games at home. And if $$$ gets tight for some of the nWCHA teams or AH teams, we may see some programs going the route of the buy-game scenario frequently.

Hopefully all coaches take the stance that Walt Kyle has done at NMU. He says he won't be giving anyone a game if they won't recipricate NMU on an equal basis. Jeff Jackson has alluded to wanting to keep playing good road games as well. But for the larger (or more well off financially) schools, making money becomes too big a focus and who knows what will happen.

[Patman]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Does anybody know if we will see any pairwise changes next year?

Sweet lord, have we hit the navel gazing time of the year?

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated through games of 1/11

1 Boston*Coll*(HE) 27 0.6024
2 Quinnipiac*(EC) 26 0.5858
3 Minnesota*(WC) 25 0.5799
4 New*Hampshire*(HE) 24 0.5894
5 Notre*Dame*(CC) 23 0.5791
6 Boston*Univ*(HE) 22 0.5684
7 Denver*U*(WC) 21 0.5593
8 Miami*(CC) 20 0.5504
9 North*Dakota*(WC) 19 0.5567
10 Yale*(EC) 18 0.5497
11 Dartmouth*(EC) 16 0.5481
12 Western*Mich*(CC) 16 0.5399
13 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 14 0.5380
14 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 13 0.5385
15 NE-Omaha*(WC) 12 0.5321
-- Niagara

Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Minnesota
Notre Dame	Denver			Miami			Boston U
Dartmouth	Yale			North Dakota		W Michigan
Mankato		Niagara			UNO			Lowell

The TUC line

27	Wisconsin	0.5044
28	CO*College	0.5035
---
29	Ferris*State	0.4983
30	AK-Fairbanks	0.4981
31	Providence	0.4960

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated through games of 1/11

1 Boston*Coll*(HE) 27 0.6024
2 Quinnipiac*(EC) 26 0.5858
3 Minnesota*(WC) 25 0.5799
4 New*Hampshire*(HE) 24 0.5894
5 Notre*Dame*(CC) 23 0.5791
6 Boston*Univ*(HE) 22 0.5684
7 Denver*U*(WC) 21 0.5593
8 Miami*(CC) 20 0.5504
9 North*Dakota*(WC) 19 0.5567
10 Yale*(EC) 18 0.5497
11 Dartmouth*(EC) 16 0.5481
12 Western*Mich*(CC) 16 0.5399
13 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 14 0.5380
14 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 13 0.5385
15 NE-Omaha*(WC) 12 0.5321
-- Niagara

Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Minnesota
Notre Dame	Denver			Miami			Boston U
Dartmouth	Yale			North Dakota		W Michigan
Mankato		Niagara			UNO			Lowell

The TUC line

27	Wisconsin	0.5044
28	CO*College	0.5035
---
29	Ferris*State	0.4983
30	AK-Fairbanks	0.4981
31	Providence	0.4960

Nice how that comes out, isn't it, Priceless? Western Mich and Dartmouth have to change for intra-conference matchup, and it helps attendance at both places. Trade Miami to Toledo for attendance, and then you get Yale at Providence also to help some more there.

Too bad it will never happen so fortuntealy for the committee....

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Bump for Priceless

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Just waiting to see who wins this Denver-UNO tilt...been a heck of a game

[ubish]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Man.... if WMU got to play in grand rapids we would blow the roof off of that place. (in a non terrorist sort of way)

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless,
Can you post the URL for Whelan's DIY site - the one that starts slack.net or something like that? I lost it. Thanks

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

A 3-way tie for the top spot this week. UNH is #1 and Boston College #2 by .0022 RPI points. We also have a bit of a conundrum because UNO is now out of the top 16, but tied for the lead in the WCHA. However, based on win % they do not get the autobid. Therefore they are out and Colgate is in the tournament.

1 New*Hampshire*(HE) 26 0.5940
2 Boston*Coll*(HE) 26 0.5903
3 Quinnipiac*(EC) 26 0.5881
4 Minnesota*(WC) 24 0.5827
5 Notre*Dame*(CC) 23 0.5699
6 Boston*Univ*(HE) 21 0.5671
7 North*Dakota*(WC) 21 0.5597
8 Denver*U*(WC) 20 0.5567
9 Yale*(EC) 19 0.5517
10 Dartmouth*(EC) 17 0.5512
11 Miami*(CC) 16 0.5510
12 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 16 0.5442
13 Western*Mich*(CC) 16 0.5435
14 Niagara*(AH) 13 0.5346
15 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 12 0.5304
16 Colgate*(EC) 12 0.5230

The brackets work out almost perfectly. We just switch Yale and Dartmouth for attendance purposes.

Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Minnesota
Denver	        North Dakota		Boston U		Notre Dame
Dartmouth	Yale			Miami			Lowell
Colgate		Mankato			Niagara			W Michigan

The all-important TUC line:

28	AK-Fairbanks	0.5043
---
29	Minn-Duluth	0.4999
30	Holy*Cross	0.4995
31	CO*College	0.4990
32	Mass-Amherst	0.4943

Whelan's site

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

A 3-way tie for the top spot this week. UNH is #1 and Boston College #2 by .0022 RPI points. We also have a bit of a conundrum because UNO is now out of the top 16, but tied for the lead in the WCHA. However, based on win % they do not get the autobid. Therefore they are out and Colgate is in the tournament.

1 New*Hampshire*(HE) 26 0.5940
2 Boston*Coll*(HE) 26 0.5903
3 Quinnipiac*(EC) 26 0.5881
4 Minnesota*(WC) 24 0.5827
5 Notre*Dame*(CC) 23 0.5699
6 Boston*Univ*(HE) 21 0.5671
7 North*Dakota*(WC) 21 0.5597
8 Denver*U*(WC) 20 0.5567
9 Yale*(EC) 19 0.5517
10 Dartmouth*(EC) 17 0.5512
11 Miami*(CC) 16 0.5510
12 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 16 0.5442
13 Western*Mich*(CC) 16 0.5435
14 Niagara*(AH) 13 0.5346
15 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 12 0.5304
16 Colgate*(EC) 12 0.5230

The brackets work out almost perfectly. We just switch Yale and Dartmouth for attendance purposes.

Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Minnesota
Notre Dame	Denver			Boston U		Notre Dame
Dartmouth	Yale			Miami			Lowell
Colgate		Mankato			Niagara			W Michigan

The all-important TUC line:

28	AK-Fairbanks	0.5043
---
29	Minn-Duluth	0.4999
30	Holy*Cross	0.4995
31	CO*College	0.4990
32	Mass-Amherst	0.4943

Whelan's site

I knew Notre Dame was pretty good, but to get two shots at the Frozen Four...that's impressive.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

A 3-way tie for the top spot this week. UNH is #1 and Boston College #2 by .0022 RPI points. We also have a bit of a conundrum because UNO is now out of the top 16, but tied for the lead in the WCHA. However, based on win % they do not get the autobid. Therefore they are out and Colgate is in the tournament.

1 New*Hampshire*(HE) 26 0.5940
2 Boston*Coll*(HE) 26 0.5903
3 Quinnipiac*(EC) 26 0.5881
4 Minnesota*(WC) 24 0.5827
5 Notre*Dame*(CC) 23 0.5699
6 Boston*Univ*(HE) 21 0.5671
7 North*Dakota*(WC) 21 0.5597
8 Denver*U*(WC) 20 0.5567
9 Yale*(EC) 19 0.5517
10 Dartmouth*(EC) 17 0.5512
11 Miami*(CC) 16 0.5510
12 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 16 0.5442
13 Western*Mich*(CC) 16 0.5435
14 Niagara*(AH) 13 0.5346
15 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 12 0.5304
16 Colgate*(EC) 12 0.5230

The brackets work out almost perfectly. We just switch Yale and Dartmouth for attendance purposes.

Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Minnesota
Notre Dame	Denver			Boston U		Notre Dame
Dartmouth	Yale			Miami			Lowell
Colgate		Mankato			Niagara			W Michigan

The all-important TUC line:

28	AK-Fairbanks	0.5043
---
29	Minn-Duluth	0.4999
30	Holy*Cross	0.4995
31	CO*College	0.4990
32	Mass-Amherst	0.4943

Whelan's site

Priceless,

Thanks for the site. I get different results from there if I enter today's results manually.

And, I think you have a problem:

I think you want :
Manchester (UNH): UNH (1), North Dakota (7), Dartmouth (10), Colgate (16) and
Providence (Brown): BC (2), Denver (8), Yale (9), Mankato (15)

That is, if you intended to change the entire first round games (UND/Dart and DU/Yale)

I get, from Whelan's site (is there an error somewhere??)
1 - NH 26 .5935
2 - BC 26 .5899
3 - QU 26 .5881
4 - Mn 24 .5827

5 - Nt 23 .5700
6 - BU 21 .5672
7 - ND 21 .5599
8 - DU 20 .5565

9 - Ya 19 .5519
10 - WM 17 .5440
11 - Mm 17 .5512
12 - Da 16 .5505

13 - ML 15 .5435
14 - Ni 13 .5350
15 - Mk 12 .5302
16 - Cg 12 .5237

Which is a match to USCHO. Except for the 10/11 tiebreak between Miami and Western Michigan.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

And, from which I would get:
Manchester (UNH Host): UNH (1), ND (7), WM (10), Cg (16)
Providence (Brown Host): BC (2), DU (8), Ya (9), Mk (15)
Toledo (BGSU Host): Qn (3), BU (6), Mm (11), Ni (14)
Grand Rapids (Michigan Host): Mn (4), Nt (5), Da (12), ML (13)

With ND/WM and DU/Ya already swapped. There would be an option to totally turn the 2/3 seed games upside down and get Western Michigan to Grand Rapids also.