Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[romo]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

That explains most of it. Ohio State's record is 7-8-5, but it's listed as 7-9-4 on SiouxSports' KRACH page. I expect that that is what has inflated RMU's RPI by a hundredth (flipping the Yale comparison).

Dont know its of any signficance ,but RMU won a shoot out at the conclusion of the 2-2 tie.Ohio States
league recognizes them the AHA doesnt.

[aparch]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Dont know its of any signficance ,but RMU won a shoot out at the conclusion of the 2-2 tie. Ohio States league recognizes them the AHA doesnt.

Doesn't matter. The NCAA ignores the shootout the CCHA (and only the CCHA) uses.

The CCHA even keeps records as: Wins - Losses - Ties - Shootout Wins. The shootout wins category is only used to award CCHA league points to the winner of the shootout. It is NOT used for anything NCAA related.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Dont know its of any signficance ,but RMU won a shoot out at the conclusion of the 2-2 tie.Ohio States
league recognizes them the AHA doesnt.

Don't count at all for the RPI.

[komey1]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

That could be why Sioux Sports error though.

[AdamBC]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Having both Michigan and Miami in Fort Wayne didn't do much to help attendance there in 2010. Official attendance for the regional final was around 3000 but the actual crowd passing through the doors was much less due to some unused tickets. Fans used the late start on Sunday as an excuse. Fort Wayne is about the same distance to Ann arbor as is Grand Rapids, and Toledo is further away from Oxford than Fort Wayne. With two regionals so close together this season I think the crowds in both Toledo and Grand Rapids are going to give further credence to the people (of which I am not one) who want to move the opening rounds back to campus sites. You'd need 8 schools from Ohio, Michigan or Indiana being in these two regionals for decent crowds.

Well, Fort Wayne is a pretty boring town. I would assume that if the NCAA didn't make the ticket prices ridiculous it would have had better local interest and attendance. The Komets do well enough in that regard. So you go to Fort Wayne - pre-game at Pierre's, pay through the nose for tickets and then a long drive back to wherever the alumni/fans actually live.

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Well, Fort Wayne is a pretty boring town. I would assume that if the NCAA didn't make the ticket prices ridiculous it would have had better local interest and attendance. The Komets do well enough in that regard. So you go to Fort Wayne - pre-game at Pierre's, pay through the nose for tickets and then a long drive back to wherever the alumni/fans actually live.

I reject the notion that these regionals fail to draw full houses because any of the towns they are held in are "boring." I can point out any number of interesting things to do in Fort Wayne and local folks can probably likewise come up with things in any of the places that have hosted regionals. I cannot imagine a town "boring" enough to keep me from a Notre Dame NCAA game that I otherwise am able to attend. Ticket prices, on the other hand, may be an issue. They were ridiculously overpriced in Fort Wayne in 2010, and overall they have so far outpaced inflation in the last decade perhaps the NCAA SHOULD do something along those lines. But remember, the NCAA doesn't SET the price. They have a floor and ceiling and the hosts pick something within that range.

[80Miracle]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Obviously many things can change between now and the March 24th Selection Show, but I would think they would send Notre Dame to Toledo and Minnesota to Grand Rapids. If their worried about attendance in either Toledo or Grand Rapids they could also always send North Dakota to one of those also.

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Tonight's Pairwise:

1 Boston*Coll*(HE)
2 Quinnipiac*(EC)
3 New*Hampshire*(HE)
4 Notre*Dame*(CC)
5 Boston*Univ*(HE)
6 Minnesota*(WC)
7 Miami*(CC)
8 North*Dakota*(WC)
9 Denver*U*(WC)
10 Western*Mich*(CC)
11 Dartmouth*(EC)
12 MSU-Mankato*(WC)
13 Yale*(EC)
14 Mass-Lowell*(HE)
15 NE-Omaha*(WC)
16 Niagara*(AH)

Bracketology by the book:

Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Notre Dame
Minnesota	North Dakota		Miami			Boston U
Dartmouth	Denver			Western Mich		Mankato
Lowell		Niagara			UNO			Yale

We need to eliminate three matchups between conference foes. As always, we need to help attendance out west if we can. The new bracketology is a mess.

Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Notre Dame
Boston U	North Dakota		Miami			Minnesota
Mankato		Dartmouth		Denver			W Michigan
Yale		Niagara			UNO			Lowell

Not ideal, but when there are three pairings that have to be broken up, you're not going to see much in the way of an ideal bracket. 1-8-11-16/2-7-9-15/3-5-12-13/4-6-10-14 is about as good as it gets. The #1 team has the easiest bracket (36) and the others are as balanced as we can get them (34, 33, 33) and we give the western regionals the best shot at drawing fans. Attendance will still be an issue, make no mistake.

The TUC line:

26	Ferris*State	0.5049
27	Northern*Mich	0.5012
28	Providence	0.5001
---
29	CO*College	0.4936
30	AK-Fairbanks	0.4924

The Wisconsin-UAA game will have no impact on the pairwise.

[Red Cows]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

A great example of how messed up even looking at Pairwise this early can be.

Here we have UNO, currently the all alone in first place team in the WCHA, as a #4 seed. That said, we'd be chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Bobcats in the Toledo Regional in the scenario above, trust me.

If Miami is in (one assumes they will be), they are going to Toledo no matter what, right?

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

A great example of how messed up even looking at Pairwise this early can be.

Here we have UNO, currently the all alone in first place team in the WCHA, as a #4 seed. That said, we'd be chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Bobcats in the Toledo Regional in the scenario above, trust me.

If Miami is in (one assumes they will be), they are going to Toledo no matter what, right?

If at all possible, but they aren't the host team, so it isn't automatic. In the scenario we have this week, if Miami were a #1 seed like Notre Dame, they'd have to be shipped to Grand Rapids because Quinnipiac is a #1 seed. They could invoke the "flight is a flight" clause I suppose. I still haven't been able to convince my travel agent of that "flight is a flight" logic

[mnstate0fhockey]

A great example of how messed up even looking at Pairwise this early can be.

Here we have UNO, currently the all alone in first place team in the WCHA, as a #4 seed. That said, we'd be chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Bobcats in the Toledo Regional in the scenario above, trust me.

If Miami is in (one assumes they will be), they are going to Toledo no matter what, right?

Both North Dakota and Minnesota have two conference games in hand, and your non conference record this season isn't the greatest.

[manurespreader]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Maybe it's just me but it seems that this year places 11 -16 are very iffy on making it. What are the stats on teams outside the top 16 as of january 1 getting in?

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Maybe it's just me but it seems that this year places 11 -16 are very iffy on making it. What are the stats on teams outside the top 16 as of january 1 getting in?

39 of the 141 (28%) teams to make the tournament were on the outside looking in. The average cut line has been 14, but this year there would be no cut line as the top AHA team is currently #16 overall. Last year the cut line was 15 and 7 of those 15 teams came from outside the top 16. That was by far the most. In 2003 and 2005 only 2 of 14 teams came from outside the top 16.

Statistically speaking, 13, 14 and 15 are the most volatile positions with far less margin for error. Those are the teams that also have to keep an eye on the TUC line because they can ill afford to lose a comparison because of record vs TUC.

[Patman]

Maybe it's just me but it seems that this year places 11 -16 are very iffy on making it. What are the stats on teams outside the top 16 as of january 1 getting in?

Let's put it this way... There's a lot of work left to be done but if you do well in the short term it is surely an indicator you will likely do well in the long term.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

39 of the 141 (28%) teams to make the tournament were on the outside looking in. The average cut line has been 14, but this year there would be no cut line as the top AHA team is currently #16 overall. Last year the cut line was 15 and 7 of those 15 teams came from outside the top 16. That was by far the most. In 2003 and 2005 only 2 of 14 teams came from outside the top 16.

Statistically speaking, 13, 14 and 15 are the most volatile positions with far less margin for error. Those are the teams that also have to keep an eye on the TUC line because they can ill afford to lose a comparison because of record vs TUC.

There's always the possibility of a cut line, simply because of the autobid. In 2011, only one autobid (the AHA) made it. All other autobids were already in the top 15.