Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless, did you see that slack.net seems to be back????

No, I didn't, but hallelujah!

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

No, I didn't, but hallelujah!

I can access the site, but the only info there for the present season is for games up to Jan 12. I believe Mr Whelan has yet to update the results for games since then....

At least, that's my hope.

[BU2K]

I can access the site, but the only info there for the present season is for games up to Jan 12. I believe Mr Whelan has yet to update the results for games since then....

At least, that's my hope.

As a BU fan I am more than willing to disregard the results since Jan 12.

[komey1]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

2a) In this case, the likely candidate is Robert Morris, who is almost a TUC or on the bubble anyway. I am just guessing here, but if they won the auto bid, their PWR rank might end up somewhere around 20 - 22. I am sure the NCAA would have no problem with that.

As an AHA watcher, never count out Air Force until they are eliminated. I believe they have only lost one game in AHA tournament play since they joined the conference - a loss to Sacred Heart in the semi-finals. That was the year RIT won the AHA and went on to the Frozen Four.

[broncos24]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless & others,

Short of Michigan or Michigan State making a helluva run and winning the CCHA Tournament OR WMU falling flat on its face and missing the Tournament. Is WMU pretty much a lock for Grand Rapids? Or do they need to stay in that 2-3 seed range in order to likely end up in GR?

Any help would be appreciated!

[LTsatch]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Qunnipiac never wins the ECAC tourney, just food for thought.

[hockeyplayer1015]

Qunnipiac never wins the ECAC tourney, just food for thought.

Quite a large sample size you're using for that statement. What has it been, 8 years or something like that?

[Jim]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

As an AHA watcher, never count out Air Force until they are eliminated. I believe they have only lost one game in AHA tournament play since they joined the conference - a loss to Sacred Heart in the semi-finals. That was the year RIT won the AHA and went on to the Frozen Four.

My comment about changing the rules was made tongue in cheek (mostly). I go back to when this league got the original autobid and there was a lot of anguish from many fans that it was "undeserved." The idea that there is a chance that the league could actually get 2 is sort of amazing.

As to who might win the league tourney, I guess its a little tricky until we know the final standings, but other than Niagara I'd say Air Force is always a tough out. So is RIT. This year Holy Cross is more than solid and I think UConn and Mercyhurst are both capable if things break the right way. So bottom line, while Niagara is clearly the best of the league, I don't think it is automatic that they'll get the autobid.

[Siouxfaninseattle]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless & others,

Short of Michigan or Michigan State making a helluva run and winning the CCHA Tournament OR WMU falling flat on its face and missing the Tournament. Is WMU pretty much a lock for Grand Rapids? Or do they need to stay in that 2-3 seed range in order to likely end up in GR?

.
Any help would be appreciated!

Way too much hockey to be played to figure where they will land - being a low 2 seed they are not a lock for the tournament let alone a specific site. If Michigan makes the tournament, they would play in Grand Rapids because they are the host.

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless & others,

Short of Michigan or Michigan State making a helluva run and winning the CCHA Tournament OR WMU falling flat on its face and missing the Tournament. Is WMU pretty much a lock for Grand Rapids? Or do they need to stay in that 2-3 seed range in order to likely end up in GR?

Any help would be appreciated!

It's still too early to project that kind of thing, but my general rule of thumb is:
A) Get a #1 seed and take the matter out of the committee's hands.
B) Failing A, where you end up is often determined by how you rank according to the #1 seeds in the bracket. (ie 1v8/2v7 etc) or other conference teams (ie right now WMU is in Grand Rapids only to avoid an all-WCHA pairing in the 1st round)
C) The exception is if your school is a major attendance enhancer (or has that reputation).

In this case, WMU might be the only attendance draw in that regional, forcing the NCAA to put them there regardless so the arena isn't a complete ghost town. If Notre Dame or Wisconsin become available they might trump WMU.

But it really is too soon to tell.

[broncos24]

It's still too early to project that kind of thing, but my general rule of thumb is:
A) Get a #1 seed and take the matter out of the committee's hands.
B) Failing A, where you end up is often determined by how you rank according to the #1 seeds in the bracket. (ie 1v8/2v7 etc) or other conference teams (ie right now WMU is in Grand Rapids only to avoid an all-WCHA pairing in the 1st round)
C) The exception is if your school is a major attendance enhancer (or has that reputation).

In this case, WMU might be the only attendance draw in that regional, forcing the NCAA to put them there regardless so the arena isn't a complete ghost town. If Notre Dame or Wisconsin become available they might trump WMU.

But it really is too soon to tell.

Thank you!

I know there's still a ton of hockey left, I was just curious as to what we need to do to end up in GR.

[uwmark]

To answer both questions:

1) Yes, it is very possible. Niagara's PWR ranking is almost totally dependent on their RPI. If they were to, let's say, win all their games from now until the AHA finals, and then lose, their RPI might well hang right where it is right now. I believe that would be a 7-1 record, which is better than their current win %age, so their RPI couldn't suffer too bad. Then, whoever beat them in the finals would also qualify.

2) There would be no reason to change the rules. The rules are that each conference has one auto-bid they can give out however they want. AHA does that by their tourney. So do all the other conferences. That makes it always possible that someone gets hot and wins the tourney, even though their regular season may have been less than stellar.

2a) In this case, the likely candidate is Robert Morris, who is almost a TUC or on the bubble anyway. I am just guessing here, but if they won the auto bid, their PWR rank might end up somewhere around 20 - 22. I am sure the NCAA would have no problem with that.

Sidenote: There was a situation a few years ago where the definition of TUC was: All teams with RPI at or above .500 + all teams who won their conference tourney. That was a problem that one year, because the regular season champ from AHA actually would have benefitted in the PWR by intentionally losing the tourney to Bentley. Bentley had a low RPI, and Holy Cross (can someone verify that???) played them 7 times or something like that, winning them all. If they had intentionally lost in the tourney, that would have been 6-1 or 7-1, and Bentley, by winning the tourney, would have been TUC. That would have raised Holy Cross' TUC record by 6-1, and vaulted them over about 4 or 5 other teams in the PWR.
Thankfully, HC won the game. And, the NCAA changed the rule about who is a TUC to only include at or above .500 RPIs, regardless of conference championships, after that happened.

Sorry for the history lesson....

Didn't the NCAA also change the way record versus TUC's is calculated to make it equal to the average of all win percentages against TUC's played? This would help to prevent team's from beefing up their TUC record from beating a few teams many times. One year UW would have been better off losing to AA so their 6 -1 record (or something similar) would count in the TUC record. By losing to AA, it allowed AA to become a TUC. Beat AA, and AA is not a TUC and no TUC record bump. Pairwise is crazy.

[Patman]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thank you!

I know there's still a ton of hockey left, I was just curious as to what we need to do to end up in GR.

I don't think anybody considered a world where MSU and UM were both sucking complete wind

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Didn't the NCAA also change the way record versus TUC's is calculated to make it equal to the average of all win percentages against TUC's played? This would help to prevent team's from beefing up their TUC record from beating a few teams many times. One year UW would have been better off losing to AA so their 6 -1 record (or something similar) would count in the TUC record. By losing to AA, it allowed AA to become a TUC. Beat AA, and AA is not a TUC and no TUC record bump. Pairwise is crazy.

I don't believe so, but that is what they did with the Common Opponent part of the comparisons.

[LTsatch]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Quite a large sample size you're using for that statement. What has it been, 8 years or something like that?

They are obviously the oldest and best team in the land, but the way the league is this year, you never know!