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lugnut92
10-13-2012, 01:07 PM
Last year, I calculated the projected final standings in the ECAC starting in the home stretch, and posted them in burgie12's "ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12) thread. I decided to get going early this year with likely wildly inaccurate prognostications and predictions. The standings are calculated by determining how many points each team can expect to receive in each of their ECAC match ups using KRACH.
Disclaimer: KRACH is retrodictive, not predictive, so it is only totally accurate in hindsight. This is even more evident so early in the season, especially given that the Ivies have yet to play (until they have real values, they will be given 100 as a placeholder and be displayed in italics).
That said, here are your initial "expected standings" for the ECAC.

Standings
1t. RPI (29)
1t. St. Lawrence (29)
3. Quinnipiac (28)
4t. Dartmouth (21)
4t. Brown (21)
4t. Cornell (21)
4t. Harvard (21)
4t. Princeton (21)
4t. Yale (21)
-----
-----
10. Colgate (20)
11. Union (17)
12. Clarkson (12)

fishcore12
10-13-2012, 01:18 PM
Last year, I calculated the projected final standings in the ECAC starting in the home stretch, and posted them in burgie12's "ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12) thread. I decided to get going early this year with likely wildly inaccurate prognostications and predictions. The standings are calculated by determining how many points each team can expect to receive in each of their ECAC match ups using KRACH.
Disclaimer: KRACH is retrodictive, not predictive, so it is only totally accurate in hindsight. This is even more evident so early in the season, especially given that the Ivies have yet to play (until they have real values, they will be given 100 as a placeholder and be displayed in italics).
That said, here are your initial "expected standings" for the ECAC.

Standings
1t. RPI (29)
1t. St. Lawrence (29)
3. Quinnipiac (28)
4t. Dartmouth (21)
4t. Brown (21)
4t. Cornell (21)
4t. Harvard (21)
4t. Princeton (21)
4t. Yale (21)
-----
-----
10. Colgate (20)
11. Union (17)
12. Clarkson (12)

My head hurts.... :) Wouldnt mind seeing that as the final standings either.

apple2k
10-13-2012, 02:13 PM
This is totally awesome in its incredible awesomeness. Unfortunately, it's also just plain incredible.

lugnut92
10-13-2012, 03:34 PM
This is totally awesome in its incredible awesomeness. Unfortunately, it's also just plain incredible.

Yeah, these numbers are obviously absolutely meaningless so early in the season. Once every team gets a few ECAC games under their belt, the predictions will probably get a lot closer to what will actually happen.

lugnut92
10-14-2012, 07:11 PM
With Quinnipiac's loss today, we're through the first full weekend of the regular season (for the non-Ivies, anyway). Here are the projected standings coming out of the weekend:

1. Quinnipiac (28)
2. RPI (27)
3. Union (23)
4. Colgate (21.9)
-----
5. St. Lawrence (21.8)
6t. Cornell (21)
6t. Brown (21)
6t. Harvard (21)
6t. Princeton (21)
6t. Yale (21)
6t. Dartmouth (21)
-----
12. Clarkson (11)

Going forward from here, I will probably update once a week after all ECAC teams have played their games. Once the ECAC schedule gets going, I'll probably update on Friday and Saturday (and Sunday/Monday, if necessary).

DrDemento
10-14-2012, 07:53 PM
Appreciate all the work you are doing. but as you say-this early??? Nice to think about but really not much substance to go on. Burgie has been doing some in depth calculation for MLB on a thread in the cafe for the playoffs. The numbers are nice and carried out to several places-but so far every series has been predicted wrong. Some years stats are fine and other years they mean nothing. if I have learned one thing following ECAC hockey for 45+ years-nothing ever goes as planned and Kepler has pegged RPI, Clarkson and Cornell right on the button.:D

FlagDUDE08
10-14-2012, 08:59 PM
Obviously there was a suggestion on the RPI thread that a team receives a blemish to their record. I would think it prudent that all twelve teams play a game first. The ivies haven't started yet, so it'd be unfair to either penalise or reward them, depending on which non-ivy is used in comparison, for something they haven't even done yet.

lugnut92
10-22-2012, 10:19 AM
After another weekend of play, we have somewhat better (but still wildly unfounded) predictions for what we can expect to see at the end of the season. Your predicted standings:

1. St. Lawrence (34)
2. Quinnipiac (31)
3t. Princeton (23)
3t. Harvard (23)
3t. Dartmouth (23)
3t. Brown (23)
3t. Yale (23)
3t. Cornell (23)
-----
-----
9. RPI (21)
10. Union (20)
11. Colgate (15)
12. Clarkson (8)

(Note: Due to rounding, there are currently 3 more points being awarded in these standings than will actually be awarded.)

With the Ivies playing their first games of the season next weekend, we'll finally ditch the 6-way tie mucking up the middle of the standings. Better yet, in two weeks we will actually have had ECAC games, meaning the projected standings will begin to diverge from a simple ranking of KRACHs.

lugnut92
10-28-2012, 09:35 PM
Every ECAC team has finally played a game! This means that the projected standings are ever so slightly more worthwhile. Here they are:

1. Cornell (35)
2. St. Lawrence (31)
3. Dartmouth (29.3)
4. Harvard (29.2)
-----
5. Yale (27)
6. Colgate (21.5)
7. Union (21.4)
8. Quinnipiac (20)
-----
9. Brown (19)
10. RPI (17)
11. Princeton (8)
12. Clarkson (5)

(Rounding error: -2)

Next week gives us our first league games, which means we'll have our first real data.

burgie12
11-04-2012, 04:19 PM
Not to interject again, but despite the fact that no one has a perfect record, there is still not a full KRACH ready yet, there's some "proto-KRACH" that still exists (eLynah thread found here (http://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,180848)).

Of course, it'd take a near miracle (Harvard and Dartmouth sweeping RPI and Union, Western Michigan coming back against Notre Dame and sweeping Bowling Green next weekend, Princeton sweeping Cornell and Colgate, and Clarkson losing to both Brown and Yale) for there not to be a full 59-team KRACH by this team next weekend. But, I'm just trying to remind people that there has to be a non-losing path from every team to every other team for KRACH to be actually useful. Since the five Ivies not named Cornell have only lost to each other and SLU and Western Michigan have only lost to each other, no one will be able to duplicate the 69-70 Big Red, but we still can't come up with accurate ratings.

lugnut92
11-04-2012, 06:22 PM
Another weekend has come and gone and KRACH has become ever so slightly more valid. As burgie points out, however, we still can't claim that Clarkson is better than Dartmouth, so this should all be taken with a grain of salt. What is exciting, is that these rankings could vary from a strict ranking of what KRACH values we do have (they don't, but we're only 6% through the season here). Without further ado, here are the (probably totally wrong) projected standings:

1. Dartmouth (36)
2. Cornell (34)
3. St. Lawrence (30.0)
4. Yale (29.8)
-----
5. Union (26)
6. Harvard (24)
7. Colgate (22)
8. Quinnipiac (19)
-----
9. RPI (14)
10. Brown (13)
11. Clarkson (8)
12. Princeton (7)

(Rounding error = -1)

Like I said above, with the beginning of conference play, these rankings cease to be a simple restatement of relative KRACHs for a couple of reasons. The biggest reason is because upsets happen and sometimes teams win games they shouldn't. Take for example Princeton at Dartmouth in the final weekend of play. Princeton (by our current numbers) has about a 3.5% chance to win, and as such can expect to take 0.07 points from the game. If they won, their expected point total would jump by nearly 2 full points, which (knowing our league) could be a huge boost in the standings, despite having a low KRACH.
The other main reason for the disparity is the order in which teams face their opponents. A team facing Harvard and Dartmouth is going to be expected to pull fewer points on the weekend than one facing Princeton and Quinnipiac, regardless of KRACH. As such, if a team gets the tough weekends out of the way early, they could potentially expect to pull more points for the remainder of the season than a team who saved their tough weekends for last, even if the second team has a higher KRACH value.

vicb
11-05-2012, 07:26 AM
Another weekend has come and gone.....


11. Clarkson (8)
.....

(Rounding error = -1)



Well based on OOC play so far, Clarkson looks about right :( :( :( .

lugnut92
11-11-2012, 11:40 AM
Every team has played an ECAC game and everybody's KRACH is real and finite! Time to pretend these predictions matter! Here we go:

1. Dartmouth (40)
2. Yale (29)
3. Union (28)
4. Harvard (22.9)
-----
5. Princeton (22.8)
6. St. Lawrence (22.4)
7. Quinnipiac (21.8)
8. Cornell (21.1)
-----
9. Brown (17)
10. Clarkson (16)
11. Colgate (15)
12. RPI (10)

(Rounding Error: +2)

Dartmouth appears set to have a near perfect season, with only 4 points expected not to go their way. Their most apparent threats are Yale (76% to win) and Union (80%), but the Big Green has already beaten each team once so far. Also of note is the extremely tight middle of the pack; 4th and 8th are only separated by 1.8 points right now. Thus, one or two unexpected wins could have a big effect on these standings.

lugnut92
11-18-2012, 12:08 PM
Not quite as much league action this weekend with RPI-Union and Yale-Brown either facing OOC foes or taking the weekend off, but still a good amount of movement in our projected standings. Here they are:

1. Dartmouth (32)
2. Quinnipiac (29)
3. Union (28)
4. Yale (26)
-----
5. Harvard (23.1)
6. Colgate (22.9)
7. Cornell (21)
8. St. Lawrence (19)
-----
9. Princeton (18)
10. Clarkson (17)
11. Brown (16)
12. RPI (14)

(Rounding error: +2)

Dartmouth's one point weekend brought them back down to earth, leaving them in first, but much closer to Quinnipiac. The Bobcats are the only team perfect in ECAC play remaining, which propelled them to jump from 7th to 2nd in the new projection. Yale dropped two spots on the bye week while Union stayed put. Colgate also jumped up quite a bit on the back of a four point weekend against what looks to be the hardest travel pair in the league. Inversely, Princeton dropped a number of spots after a poor showing in the North Country (Currently the weakest travel partners).

lugnut92
11-26-2012, 10:05 PM
There was no league play this weekend, but the OOC contests caused a few changes in the projection. Here we are:

1. Dartmouth (32)
2. Yale (30)
3. Union (29)
4. Quinnipiac (28)
-----
5. Harvard (23)
6. Colgate (22)
7. Cornell (21)
8. St. Lawrence (19)
-----
9. Princeton (17)
10. Brown (15.5)
11. Clarkson (15.3)
12. RPI (14)

(Rounding error: +1)

Yale and Quinnipiac switch places on the back of the Elis' huge pair of wins out west. The other change was the flip of Brown and Clarkson, but as you can see, this isn't very big. Also of note, the gap between 4th and 5th has grown significantly over the last two weeks (from 0.1 points to 5).
I've also started determining the average KRACH of each team's remaining league opponents. This gives us an idea of who has the the toughest road yet to run (and thus will be fighting the most for their points) and who has a relative coast to the finish. The team with the hardest road left could also be argued to have had the easiest path thus far. Anyway, Princeton has the hardest remaining schedule and RPI has the easiest (not to say that it will be easy; RPI would have a .393 W% against their average opponent).

lugnut92
12-02-2012, 10:45 AM
Nine more ECAC games were played this weekend (pushing us over 25% completion) and our projections changed with them. Here they are:

1. Quinnipiac (32.2)
2. Dartmouth (32.1)
3. Yale (30)
4. Cornell (25)
-----
5. Union (24)
6. Harvard (23)
7. Colgate (22)
8. St. Lawrence (20)
-----
9. Princeton (18)
10. Brown (14)
11. Clarkson (13)
12. RPI (12)

(Rounding error: +1)

Dartmouth has relinquished the top spot for the first time since league play started, giving the title to Quinnipiac and their still-perfect ECAC record. Cornell's 4-point weekend brought them back into the bye range, dropping Union in the process. RPI finally got their first actual point, but they actually lost stock in the rankings.
Princeton and RPI still hold the toughest and easiest remaining schedules, respectively, but Princeton's pair against Quinnipiac this weekend should make their remaining road look a bit easier. That said, they're expected to pull only 1 point against their travel partner.

lugnut92
12-06-2012, 05:20 PM
Midweek update:

1. Dartmouth (33)
2. Quinnipiac (32)
3. Yale (30)
4. Cornell (25)
-----
5. Union (24)
6. Harvard (23)
7. Colgate (22)
8. Princeton (18)
-----
9. St. Lawrence (17)
10. Clarkson (16)
11. Brown (14)
12. RPI (12)

(Rounding error: +2)

Dartmouth is back in first (barely).

lugnut92
12-09-2012, 11:58 AM
The last league games of 2012 have been played, and we're just over a third of the way through the ECAC schedule. Here are the projected standings:

1. Quinnipiac (34)
2. Dartmouth (32)
3. Yale (25.13)
4. Cornell (25.08)
-----
5. Union (24.3)
6. Colgate (23.8)
7. Harvard (22)
8. Clarkson (17)
-----
9. Princeton (16.1)
10. St. Lawrence (15.6)
11. RPI (15.3)
12. Brown (14.9)

(Rounding error: +1)

Yet another weekend sweep for Quinnipiac widens their lead over Dartmouth. Clarkson's sweep over SLU brought them into home-ice territory for the first time all season. Meanwhile, SLU is now 8 spots down from their preseason projection of 2nd place. RPI is out of the cellar for the first time in 5 weeks, but only just. The gap between 1st and 3rd is only a point smaller than the spread from 3rd to 12th, with 3rd to 6th separated by just over a point. Similarly, 8th and 11th are only 1.8 points apart. This is all just to show that the league is very tight (just like always). The easiest and toughest remaining schedules now go to Dartmouth and Quinnipiac, respectively.

REDaero91
12-11-2012, 09:44 PM
Post!

FlagDUDE08
12-11-2012, 09:48 PM
Post!

You sure you're in the right thread? ;)

At least according to the projected standings, we aren't in the basement.