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LakersFan
10-08-2012, 10:28 AM
The Monday after the first semi-full weekend of DI games mark the return of the Rutter Rankings. Here are the current top 10:


Team Rating
1 Minnesota 2.0722
2 Wisconsin 1.5283
3 Ohio State 1.4741
4 Cornell 1.4576
5 Boston Univ. 1.2104
6 Clarkson 1.1280
7 Mercyhurst 1.0514
8 Northeastern 0.9756
9 North Dakota 0.8331
10 Harvard 0.7293

Many more details, including the rest of the teams, explanation of the ratings, a cool graph, and much (OK, not that much) more can be found here:

http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/WomensRankings.html

FAQ

Q. [Insert team here, like Cornell] hasn't played a game yet. How can they be ranked?
A. The power of Bayesian statistics. Each team has a prior rating based on last year, so early season rankings are possible. As more games are played, the effect of the prior is reduced.

Q. Is home ice advantage included?
A. No. Although I have estimates of home ice advantage for both the entire division and for each team, they are not included in these rankings. It emulates the NCAA criteria in this respect.

Q. Is margin of victory (MOV) included?
A. No, just wins, losses, and ties. Again, the NCAA doesn't use margin of victory and since the games are low scoring, I haven't found a satisfactory way to include MOV.

Q. How do you include ties?
A. If you look at the web page, you will see how ties are included. In short, I estimate a region that includes a probability of a tie which is larger when the teams are closely ranked. No "tie is half a win, half a loss" simplification here.

Q. How does your method compare to RPI?
A. The two are very different. I think my system (and KRACH) are a much better reflection of the quality of teams as statistical models are used as opposed to arbitrary alegbra. But I am biased. Someday, I will do a really complete comparission of the methiods.

backcheck
10-08-2012, 11:20 AM
Yep, a really cool graph to boot. Nice job, Lakersfan!

LakersFan
10-11-2012, 12:39 PM
There will be a lack of Monday ranking updates for the next three weeks as I am "going off the grid" for a trip. The website will still be running, so you can still find the information there. The D-III rankings will go live when I get back. Go Lakers!

OnMAA
10-29-2012, 09:27 PM
Bumping this to the front page:

http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/WomensRankings.html

LakersFan
11-05-2012, 01:49 PM
Ratings for week ending November 4, 2012


Team Rating
1 Minnesota 3.0269
2 Cornell 1.7291
3 Harvard 1.5225
4 Ohio State 1.5128
5 Mercyhurst 1.4700
6 Clarkson 1.3818
7 Boston Univ 1.2235
8 North Dakota 1.1498
9 Northeastern 0.6570
10 Wisconsin 0.6412

I just got back from a 2+ week bicycle trip from Washington DC to Chatleston NC, so I have been out of the loop big time. Obviously, Minnesota is doing really well. If you think there are any issues with the rankings (as in teams are being confused by the computer code), please let me know.

ManBehindTheCurtain
11-05-2012, 06:03 PM
I just got back from a 2+ week bicycle trip from Washington DC to Chatleston NC, so I have been out of the loop big time.Two week bicycle trip?

Fascinating.

Is there somewhere on the internet where we can find out more about this?

Cali
11-05-2012, 08:23 PM
Two week bicycle trip?

Fascinating.

Is there somewhere on the internet where we can find out more about this?

Try here...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPWCrCjBM10

:)

OnMAA
11-05-2012, 09:58 PM
I just got back from a 2+ week bicycle trip from Washington DC to Charleston NC


Two week bicycle trip?...Fascinating.

2 Week bike trip from DC to Charleston while Sandy was doing it's thing


so I have been out of the loop big time. No Kidding....Sandy came ashore while you were out of the loop.

OnMAA
11-05-2012, 10:01 PM
If you think there are any issues with the rankings (as in teams are being confused by the computer code), please let me know.

Teams confused by the computer code?. That is probably all of them except the Gophers. :D

LakersFan
11-06-2012, 01:17 PM
Two week bicycle trip?

Fascinating.

Is there somewhere on the internet where we can find out more about this?

This coming weekend I hope to have a page on my website with pictures and such. We rolled into Charleston the day before Sandy hit, but Charleston was the place to be on the coast for Sandy. Just high winds and only one day of rain. My family came down to pick us a up and on the way home we got caught in the WV/Sandy Blizzard, but nothing as bad as what the people in the North East experienced.

OnMAA
11-06-2012, 01:48 PM
This coming weekend I hope to have a page on my website with pictures and such. We rolled into Charleston the day before Sandy hit, but Charleston was the place to be on the coast for Sandy. Just high winds and only one day of rain. My family came down to pick us a up and on the way home we got caught in the WV/Sandy Blizzard, but nothing as bad as what the people in the North East experienced.

Cool. Sounds like a great trip. Many Many years ago, we visited Charleston, not too long after Hurricane Hugo (late 80's). That time Charleston got hit really hard. Reason I remember Hugo is because I was running a cross country race in NYC (On the famous grounds of Van Cortland Park in the Bronx), and we literally almost got blown of the course due to the high winds. This was on a Saturday in late September.

MICZamboni
11-07-2012, 02:26 PM
I just got back from a 2+ week bicycle trip from Washington DC to Chatleston NC, so I have been out of the loop big time.

Rumor has it you still had the training wheels on. Care to confirm or deny?

Call It
11-07-2012, 03:00 PM
30 Vermont -1.2750 33 0.3454
31 Maine -1.3210 30 0.3588
32 Yale -1.5986 29 0.3976
33 Connecticut -1.6004 32 0.3460
34 Lindenwood -2.4065 31 0.3552

vs

Team Rating RPI.Rank RPI
1 Norwich 2.2935 11 0.5940
2 Plattsburgh 2.2125 1 0.7306
3 Elmira 2.1690 2 0.7115
4 Wis-River Falls 1.8212 7 0.6550
5 Middlebury 1.7824 49 0.0000


Nice work Mr. Rutter! :) I noticed the bottom 5 teams in D1 and was wondering if the top 5 D3 Teams could beat them? That would be an interesting Tournament. Of course that would never happen thus could Mr. Rutter come to a conclusion on this, using Math?

OnMAA
11-07-2012, 03:01 PM
Rumor has it you still had the training wheels on. Care to confirm or deny?

Off course.....That was due diligence, to protect oneself from Sandy's crosswinds. Any mathematician would have calculated that out properly. :D

OnMAA
11-07-2012, 03:02 PM
Team Rating
1 Minnesota 2.0722
2 Wisconsin 1.5283
3 Ohio State 1.4741
4 Cornell 1.4576
5 Boston Univ. 1.2104
6 Clarkson 1.1280
7 Mercyhurst 1.0514
8 Northeastern 0.9756
9 North Dakota 0.8331
10 Harvard 0.7293


Nice work Mr. Rutter! :) I noticed the bottom 5 teams in D1 and was wondering if the top 5 D3 Teams could beat them? That would be an interesting Tournament. Of course that would never happen thus could Mr. Rutter come to a conclusion on this, using Math?

The answer would be a big fat No, as there are no games between the two sets to make any valid mathematical comparisons.

Call It
11-07-2012, 05:22 PM
The answer would be a big fat No, as there are no games between the two sets to make any valid mathematical comparisons.

There must be opponents in common. Use the BCS math

Eeyore
11-07-2012, 09:23 PM
There must be opponents in common. Use the BCS math

No, there aren't any direct common opponents. What you have is that St. Anselm has played two Div III opponents: a win over Nichols and a tie with Manhattanville. The only Div I opponent they have played is Sacred Heart, who they beat. Sacred Heart has gone 1-3 against Penn State and 0-2 vs. RIT. I believe that that is the only intersection between Div I and Div III at this point. In coming weeks, you'll get more, but I'm still pretty sure that all Div I vs. Div III games will involve either Sacred Heart or St. Anselm.* Mathematically, that just doesn't give you enough to work with. You might get some results as outputs, but it would be a mistake to think that they have any meaning at all.

Last minute edit: Not quite. Penn State plays Chatham twice in January. That won't materially change things.

LakersFan
11-12-2012, 11:44 AM
Rumor has it you still had the training wheels on. Care to confirm or deny?

I had a choice between a two week bike trip and taking a course in how to drive a Zamboni. I thought the bike trip would be more difficult :)

LakersFan
11-12-2012, 12:49 PM
There must be opponents in common. Use the BCS math

Given the small number of D1 vs. D3, it is very difficuly for any model to rank the teams realitive to each other. Let's say Penn State defeats Chatham twice. This provides zero information since Chatham is ranked near the bottom of the D3 rankings. If Norwich beat Lindenwood, it wouldn't give any information either, since Lindenwood is ranked so low in the D1 rating. In order to rank the the teams relative to one another, you need to have a wide range of teams rating wide play each other across divisions. Statistically, we call this the need for contrast.

LakersFan
11-12-2012, 12:55 PM
For games played through November 11, 2012


Team Rating
1 Minnesota 3.0169
2 Cornell 1.6286
3 Harvard 1.5132
4 Clarkson 1.4419
5 Ohio State 1.4344
6 Mercyhurst 1.4288
7 North Dakota 1.1184
8 Boston Univ. 0.9351
9 St. Lawrence 0.7039
10 Boston College 0.6932