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2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

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  • #31
    Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

    Originally posted by UpNorthHockey View Post
    I think you're right to put UNO and MTU fairly high as both teams were tough last year and are clearly on the rise. Still, I think I'd drop SCSU down a notch.
    However, I just can't see why people are picking UW so high after last year's season...even in major pre-season polls. I think it's herd behavior.
    Their goaltending was good, not great, they lost Schultz and all they really gained of note was Kerdiles.
    Zengerle is a great player and Mersch & Barnes are good, but those are the only returning players that scored more than 20 points last year.
    I'm just not seeing tangible player based reasons for the big bump in the standings. I think they're still rebuilding and won't see home ice playoffs.
    As far as Wisconsin is concerned, I think a lot of people (myself included) are looking at how well they played down the stretch. The Badgers were 1-8-1 in their first 10 WCHA road games last season. They went 4-3-0 on the road down the stretch (including 5 games against Minnesota and Denver), and I think that is why a lot of people (myself included) think that the Badgers were much better than their record last year. Given that, and given the perceived fall of Duluth and CC, the strong recruiting class that the Badgers have coming in, the losses that UNO faced, and the (IMO) the return of the best player in the WCHA, and I think the Badgers will be a very good team. I have them 4th in my rankings. You can call it "herd behavior," but I think you'll be quite surprised at how good the Badgers are this season. Of course, I'm sure those in Madison would rather you assume that they aren't a top-half team.

    As far as player based reasons...

    Zengerle - IMO, he is the best player in the WCHA. He scored 50 points, and if he can be paired with a true goal scorer, I wouldn't be surprised if he put up 60-65 points. Again, I feel that he is the front runner for the Hobey Baker at this point in time.

    Mersch/Barnes - The Sophomores improved from their Freshman seasons (Mersch going from 19 to 30 points and Barnes going from 17 to 26...both in fewer games), and I feel that they will likely continue that upward movement. I would look for Mersch and Barnes to put up numbers somewhere along the line of 15-20 goals and around 20 assists for 35-40 points each.

    Joseph Labate - Labate had a solid freshman season scoring 20 points (5-15-20). If he can continue to develop and produce, I would look for him to put up similar numbers to Mersch (~30 points) this season.

    Kerdiles - As you mentioned, he is their star recruit this season. He is certainly capable of putting up Labate-type numbers, and probably should put up more. It will be interesting to see if he is paired with Zengerle because those two guys could light up the league. If he's put with Zengerle, I would conservatively guess 15 goals for Kerdiles.

    Blue Line - Yes, they lost Schultz, but they still have a solid d-corps down in Madison. Wisconsin has become known for developing d-men, and I don't see that changing this season. While I don't see any one blueliner picking up the production lost from Schultz, I see the collective picking up the majority of that slack. Look for Simonelli and McCabe to lead the blueline in points (although neither will touch Schultz's 16 goals from last season).

    Joel Rumpel - As a freshman, Rumpel put up a .919 save %...pretty impressive. He also was the stalwart in net for the Badgers late season charge, and in their final 6 games allowed only 11 goals (1.83 GAA/.941sv%) all on the road. Those are fantastic numbers. While I don't think anyone sees Rumpul stopping 94% of the shots he faces, I think it is certainly within reason to expect something along the lines of a 2.10gaa/.925sv%.

    And last but not least, you have to keep in mind Wisconsin's schedule when predicting placement in conference. Wisconsin is in arguably the easiest pod (w/Minnesota, Mankato, and UAA). They do have road trips to North Dakota and Denver, but get SCSU and Tech at home. It's probably one of the easier schedules (behind Minnesota) in the conference, and will help the Badgers rack up points in conference.

    I'm not saying Wisconsin is the best team in the league, but:
    - They were better than their record showed last year;
    - Have a great group of forwards in place to increase offensive production;
    - Have more than a capable group of blueliners;
    - Have a strong goalie, who performed increasingly better as the season progressed;
    - Have a strong recruiting class coming in; AND
    - Have a pretty easy schedule

    I have them 4th (just behind SCSU), but I would be willing to bet a decent sum of money that they get home ice this year.
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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    • #32
      Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

      Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post

      I'm not saying Wisconsin is the best team in the league, but:
      - They were better than their record showed last year;
      - Have a great group of forwards in place to increase offensive production;
      - Have more than a capable group of blueliners;
      - Have a strong goalie, who performed increasingly better as the season progressed;
      - Have a strong recruiting class coming in; AND
      - Have a pretty easy schedule

      I have them 4th (just behind SCSU), but I would be willing to bet a decent sum of money that they get home ice this year.
      I hadn't considered their strength of schedule or end of season performance last year. Perhaps they will outperform my expectations. I do agree that Zengerle will be a Hobey contender and that their middle tier players are likely to improve. However, I still think they're going to be in the middle of the pack, not in the top. To be honest, they're my favorite of the B1G teams, and I'd like to see them do well....just not until next year.

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      • #33
        Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

        I agree with most of what FS23 said. Although, I think Bjugstad is the best player in the WCHA, and would have had more points than Zengerle last season had he not been slowed by injuries. And if the reports I read from Florida's camp are accurate, look out this season
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        • #34
          Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

          Originally posted by mnstate0fhockey View Post
          I agree with most of what FS23 said. Although, I think Bjugstad is the best player in the WCHA, and would have had more points than Zengerle last season had he not been slowed by injuries. And if the reports I read from Florida's camp are accurate, look out this season
          Bjugstad is certainly a beast, but I think Zengerle is the more complete player. IMO, Zengerle is more like Gretzky, while Bjugstad is more like Brendan Shanahan (not suggesting that Zengerle is the greatest player of all-time, just type of game that I think each is akin to). Also, if you want to look at points, keep in mind the numbers Minnesota put up (50 more goals than Wisconsin) in relation to Wisconsin. Bjugstad was surrounded by more talent than Zengerle was. Ultimately, if I could add just one of these guys to my team, I would take Zengerle.

          Saying that, I would concede that Bjugstad is somewhat more capable of individually changing the outcome of the game because Zengerle (to be most effective) needs to be paired with a true goal scorer. FWIW, if these two guys were on the same team they would put up some ridiculous numbers.
          North Dakota
          National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
            Bjugstad is certainly a beast, but I think Zengerle is the more complete player. IMO, Zengerle is more like Gretzky, while Bjugstad is more like Brendan Shanahan (not suggesting that Zengerle is the greatest player of all-time, just type of game that I think each is akin to). Also, if you want to look at points, keep in mind the numbers Minnesota put up (50 more goals than Wisconsin) in relation to Wisconsin. Bjugstad was surrounded by more talent than Zengerle was. Ultimately, if I could add just one of these guys to my team, I would take Zengerle.

            Saying that, I would concede that Bjugstad is somewhat more capable of individually changing the outcome of the game because Zengerle (to be most effective) needs to be paired with a true goal scorer. FWIW, if these two guys were on the same team they would put up some ridiculous numbers.
            We can agree to disagree because I certainly think Nick Bjugstad is as complete a player as there is in college hockey. For a guy with a power forward's body, his skating is quite good and his hands are exceptional. He has arguably the best shot in the college game. He is also a smart hockey player and plays at both ends of the ice. I would say Zengerle is more like Jari Kurri and Bjugstad a Mario Lemieux who plays defense (again, loose comparisons). Zengerle being the elite playmaker who's more of a setup guy than pure goal scorer and Bjugstad the elite power forward with great puck skills.

            Zengerle is definitely a great player, and surely a Hobey candidate, but Bjugstad has (as you said) the ability to just take over a game. Both will be a lot of fun to watch this year, and would be pretty unstoppable on the same line
            Last edited by mnstate0fhockey; 09-19-2012, 02:46 PM.
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            • #36
              Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

              Originally posted by mnstate0fhockey View Post
              He has arguably the best shot in the college game.
              I will agree to disagree, but this statement couldn't be further from the truth. He certainly has a good shot (scored on about 16% of his shots), but nowhere near the best shot in the college game.

              Personally, I would take Bill Arnold every day and twice on Sunday as far as who has the best shot in the college game (~21%), or even a Carter Rowney (~21%) or Ben Hanowski (~18%) in the WCHA. That's not to diminish Bjugstad's skills, but I think you have overrated his skill in at least this particular area.
              North Dakota
              National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                I will agree to disagree, but this statement couldn't be further from the truth. He certainly has a good shot (scored on about 16% of his shots), but nowhere near the best shot in the college game.

                Personally, I would take Bill Arnold every day and twice on Sunday as far as who has the best shot in the college game (~21%), or even a Carter Rowney (~21%) or Ben Hanowski (~18%) in the WCHA. That's not to diminish Bjugstad's skills, but I think you have overrated his skill in at least this particular area.
                Bjugstad played half of last season with a shoulder injury (injured it before the WJC). I'm going to stand by that comment. We can revisit after this season.
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                • #38
                  Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

                  Originally posted by mnstate0fhockey View Post
                  Bjugstad played half of last season with a shoulder injury (injured it before the WJC). I'm going to stand by that comment. We can revisit after this season.
                  Did he play his Freshman season injured as well? He scored on about 11% of his shots that season.

                  EDIT: FWIW, Bill Arnold scored on ~22% of his shots his freshman season as well. I shouldn't leave out Jordan George from this conversation in the WCHA either (he has consistently scored on about 20% of his shots).
                  Last edited by Fighting Sioux 23; 09-19-2012, 03:15 PM.
                  North Dakota
                  National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                    Did he play his Freshman season injured as well? He scored on about 11% of his shots that season.

                    EDIT: FWIW, Bill Arnold scored on ~22% of his shots his freshman season as well. I shouldn't leave out Jordan George from this conversation in the WCHA either (he has consistently scored on about 20% of his shots).
                    Bjugstad did have mono for a month. Bill Arnold didn't accelerate his schooling and come in as young as Bjugstad did either. We can agree to disagree because I don't think we'll ever totally agree.

                    Back to the original topic, both Bjugstad and Zengerle should shine this season. Can't go wrong with either. Will be fun to see how each does
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                    • #40
                      Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

                      Originally posted by mnstate0fhockey View Post
                      Bjugstad did have mono for a month. Bill Arnold didn't accelerate his schooling and come in as young as Bjugstad did either. We can agree to disagree because I don't think we'll ever totally agree.
                      Arnold's 2 months older than Bjugstad. Fact is, Arnold has a significantly better shot than Bjugstad, and so do dozens of others across the college hockey landscape, including a handful in the WCHA alone. Again, Bjugstad is a great player, but he doesn't even come close to having the best shot in his own league, let alone college hockey.
                      North Dakota
                      National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

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                      • #41
                        Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

                        New coach, new system. We'll show up and see what happens. Jutting will be screaming at refs from Omaha's bench.
                        My guy is a hard-nosed hockey player who is not afraid to crash the net. Your guy is a goon who runs the goalie.

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                        • #42
                          Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                            Arnold's 2 months older than Bjugstad. Fact is, Arnold has a significantly better shot than Bjugstad, and so do dozens of others across the college hockey landscape, including a handful in the WCHA alone. Again, Bjugstad is a great player, but he doesn't even come close to having the best shot in his own league, let alone college hockey.
                            You really need to learn to drop an argument buddy

                            I may be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time, but I am going to stand by my opinion until Bjugstad plays a full year healthy. I get it, you don't agree with me. That's fine.

                            I don't understand how you came to the conclusion that Zengerle is a more complete player than Bjugstad, but I certainly think you're entitled to that opinion.

                            I am not really interested in getting into a full blown debate on any of this as I have a long day of travel ahead. I'll leave it at this. I think Bjugstad is the best player in the WCHA, and just might be the best player in the NCAA. I think he finishes higher than Zengerle in the Hobey voting and is my preseason pick for the award.
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                            • #44
                              Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do

                              Originally posted by mnstate0fhockey View Post
                              You really need to learn to drop an argument buddy

                              I may be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time, but I am going to stand by my opinion until Bjugstad plays a full year healthy. I get it, you don't agree with me. That's fine.

                              I don't understand how you came to the conclusion that Zengerle is a more complete player than Bjugstad, but I certainly think you're entitled to that opinion.

                              I am not really interested in getting into a full blown debate on any of this as I have a long day of travel ahead. I'll leave it at this. I think Bjugstad is the best player in the WCHA, and just might be the best player in the NCAA. I think he finishes higher than Zengerle in the Hobey voting and is my preseason pick for the award.
                              Fortunately the sun should not get too much in your eyes with those maroon and gold colored glasses that you have on, buddy.
                              North Dakota
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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
                                Fortunately the sun should not get too much in your eyes with those maroon and gold colored glasses that you have on, buddy.
                                I hardly think only Gopher fans share that opinion. But you're free to think what you like.
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