Bracketology: March 11, 2008

[USCHO Newsbot]

With the regular season now complete in all six Division I leagues, opportunities for bubble teams are coming into focus. Jayson Moy dives a little deeper into the numbers in this week's column.

Read more at uscho.com ...

[AFHockeyFan]

If anyone honestly believes that, given a choice between two #2 seeds, the committee will send BC to Colorado Springs and DU to Worcester, I'd like to have some of what they're smoking.
When it comes down to bracket integrity vs. attendance, I think the committee finds a way to make those changes.

[stickboy1956]

It comical to watch Jason Moy each week find a way to keep Mich from playing Wisconsin in Madison. It was understandable when Mich was #1 but when they are not, they do not need "the easiest road" thru the tournament.

I'm glad he's not the committee.

[SCSUman66]

So you're saying just swap BC and Denver? That would create yet another intraconference matchup b/t Denver and St. Cloud, and somehow i doubt the committee would want 2 intraconference matchups to kick the tourney off, 7 WCHA teams or not.

If Jayson's bracket panned out, can we say the Regional of Death would be in Madison? North Dakota (only beaten once so far in 2008) Minnesota (never know with them), Wisconsin (ALWAYS plays tough at home), and Miami (they were ranked #1 at one point this season, dont' forget). Somehow i think UND and MN will get kinda angry about being placed in the same bracket for the 2nd consecutive year, but oh well.

[Gus]

Being a Clarkson fan I love seeing Mr Moy find a way to put Clarkson in the East but I don't think it is very realistic.

[AFHockeyFan]

Originally Posted by SCSUman66

So you're saying just swap BC and Denver? That would create yet another intraconference matchup b/t Denver and St. Cloud, and somehow i doubt the committee would want 2 intraconference matchups to kick the tourney off, 7 WCHA teams or not.

If the criteria for interconference matchups is "5 or more teams," then I think one intra-conference matchup for each team over 5 is permissible.

However, he already swapped Michigan State and Mankato to avoid the intraconference, he could just as easily ship the Spartans to Colorado to avoid the WCHA matchup there. Then you would have:

CS: CC-Bem, DU-MSU
Mad: ND-WI, Mia-MN
Alb: MI-BU, MnSt-Cla
Wor: UNH-Army, BC-StC

[SJHovey]

Originally Posted by stickboy1956

It comical to watch Jason Moy each week find a way to keep Mich from playing Wisconsin in Madison. It was understandable when Mich was #1 but when they are not, they do not need "the easiest road" thru the tournament.

I'm glad he's not the committee.

I don't think it's that. Instead, it appears to me to just be column filler.

Bracketology is simple math. When you have a week like this one where doing it by the numbers works out perfectly, with only one simple intraconference match up to switch out, he's got nothing else to write about unless he goes through the machinations he just did.

IMHO there is no way the committee will take a bracket that works perfectly and then try to screw with it just to try something different.

Just demonstrates that this is an idea that has run it's course. He would be better off spending his column space writing about "what ifs".

[SCSUman66]

Originally Posted by AFHockeyFan

If the criteria for interconference matchups is "5 or more teams," then I think one intra-conference matchup for each team over 5 is permissible.

However, he already swapped Michigan State and Mankato to avoid the intraconference, he could just as easily ship the Spartans to Colorado to avoid the WCHA matchup there. Then you would have:

CS: CC-Bem, DU-MSU
Mad: ND-WI, Mia-MN
Alb: MI-BU, MnSt-Cla
Wor: UNH-Army, BC-StC

that could make sense, but i don't see them doing 2 game swaps just to help attendance. It would already be fine with NH and Army and CC and SCSU in Colorado springs. + the #1 seed would be facing a #6 if DU advanced instead of #8 BC.

[golfsarg]

This week's brackets are just wishful thinking. It's highly likely that two of the three bottom WCHA teams will be out of consideration by this time next week.

[SCSUman66]

Originally Posted by golfsarg

This week's brackets are just wishful thinking. It's highly likely that two of the three bottom WCHA teams will be out of consideration by this time next week.

As a big WCHA supporter as I am (and as nice as it would be to have 7 in there ), i would have to agree that probably 5, maaaaaaybe 6 will make it. If SCSU sweeps Wisconsin, that'll probably knock them out of the top 14. If SCSU gets swept, and MTU gets swept as well, we'll be sitting right on the bubble. And the loser of the Mankato-Minnesota series will be in peril as well. A lot of it also hinges on whether Notre Dame and Boston U. can play well this weekend.

[Slash01]

The thing is kind of fun to read, and should probably continue. But I would take it more as a "People" magazine than as a "Newsweek" or US News.

I would usually hesitate to comment. Thought it would be ok now.

Here are my issues:

1. KRACH is a better system than Pairwise. Consider shifting, Jayson. Even if it is not followed yet by the invisible cogniscenti. Run it with ratio data. Just for fun. USCHO endorses it, so does College Hockey News.

2. Bracket integrity. That is a terrible misnomer. You cite 4th vs. 13th in rearranging a few teams. You can't apply it to one pairing and not for all the others.

3. Poor Miami. Talk about a team going into a pack of wolves. It's not your fault of course, just the way the numbers stacked up.

4. Springs looks easy for CC. Again, you didn't decide that. But can you run the thing through KRACH, just in your own mind. Then, honestly look and see what it shows. I strongly suspect a fairer result.

5. The way things shake out is never predictable. It is fun to speculate and look at things before the end. Most of us appreciate your efforts.

[Goon]

These things are fun to read but it's jumping the gun.
I would let it play out a few more weeks then we can see what it really is.
There is going to be 5-6 WCHA teams max.

[STC4ME]

Mad-town really is going to be mad after this week's break down! I like St. Cloud sitting where it is considering the last four games we have split CC. I would really enjoy seeing St. Cloud play Clarkson at a neutral rink...it would be an exciting game.

[Goon]

Originally Posted by STC4ME

Mad-town really is going to be mad after this week's break down! I like St. Cloud sitting where it is considering the last four games we have split CC. I would really enjoy seeing St. Cloud play Clarkson at a neutral rink...it would be an exciting game.

I think a lot of us WCHA fans would as well. I just heard on the INCH pod cast that Clarkson's only loss at home was to the Huskies.

[buddy318]

If it's about attendance, you keep Army in Colorado Springs because of all the military personnel, especially the Ft. Carson crowd.

[con1977]

Originally Posted by Goon

These things are fun to read but it's jumping the gun.
I would let it play out a few more weeks then we can see what it really is.
There is going to be 5-6 WCHA teams max.

I disagree. On the strength of the OOC record, I think that 6 is very likely and depending on how these first round matchups shake out (say if a few of the key ones go to 3 games to ease the blow of losing 2 games) that there could likely be 7 teams at the end of the line in the top 14.

That said, the ultimate decider for how many in will be ECAC, HEA or CCHA upsets. Id be surprised if one of MSU, Michigan or Miami doesnt win the CCHA tourney (my pick would be Michigan), so that one probably wont produce an upset by a team that wouldnt already be in. HEA is somewhat possible, with BU's fate hinging on their results in the tourney and BC and UNH the only teams very solidly in right now, if a hot team runs out, we could see an upset. Still, I think that the "upset" is likely to be BU if any team does it, so it really wouldnt knock out a WCHA team from the top 14. From what I see, Providence likely has to have a very strong showing to move up enough to be in the top 14, and absolutely has to sweep this weekend to have a chance. So we MAY see one come from HEA that takes away an at large, but its not highly likely. That leaves ECAC. This is quite likely, and Id go so far as to say that my hunch is to count on a team other than Clarkson to win the ECAC. So the target is top 13, and MAYBE 12. I think you see 6 WCHA teams in the top 13 with #13 a WCHA team. So the difference of 5 and 6 would be if HEA or CCHA comes up with an upset for the autobid that isnt BC, UNH, Michigan, MSU, Miami or BU.

[satyking]

This set of brackets remind me of the Anahiem Frozen 4......Hockey East and Mich State its North Dakota this year......only real chalenge is the BU-Mich game IMO and if BU is hot its over

[stickboy1956]

Originally Posted by SJHovey

I don't think it's that. Instead, it appears to me to just be column filler.

Bracketology is simple math. When you have a week like this one where doing it by the numbers works out perfectly, with only one simple intraconference match up to switch out, he's got nothing else to write about unless he goes through the machinations he just did.

IMHO there is no way the committee will take a bracket that works perfectly and then try to screw with it just to try something different.

Just demonstrates that this is an idea that has run it's course. He would be better off spending his column space writing about "what ifs".

Which is why Adam Wodon's collumn on CHN is more insightful right now - he goes thru in detail PWR implications of the games to come, not a theoretical bracket.

Using the current PWR rankings, it's pretty easy to figure out a bracket - what we don't know is how the committee would handle host teams and how many WCHA intra conf. matchups they will allow.

[AFHockeyFan]

Originally Posted by buddy318

If it's about attendance, you keep Army in Colorado Springs because of all the military personnel, especially the Ft. Carson crowd.

When Army plays at Air Force, there's never more than a smattering of Army fans, usually the few West Point alums at Ft. Carson who know and care about Army hockey. Most of the fan base for the service academies is retirees or local community, which is why you keep Army ideally in Albany or, worst case, in Worcester. The same holds true for Air Force. If they make it, they would almost assuredly play in the Springs, (Air Force and CC sold out their game in January) as the committee did last year in sending the Falcons to Denver. Personally, I would love to see a rematch with CC!

[jdorf40]

I think this bracketology talk is interesting, but I do think there is some bias involved in it. You are going to pull for Michigan like I will want to pull for North Dakota.
I do have a lot of questions that I'm hoping will be answered here over the next couple of weeks, but I'm a little bit curious as to how a team can have a ranking of #1 in clearly the toughest conference in hockey (factual based on rpi as well as # of WCHA teams that will be selected for the tourney), have a 17 game unbeaten streak still in tact and still manage to fall in the rankings...not one spot, not two spots, but THREE spots! In my opinion, if there is a tie for first place as far the rankings go...it should be between CC and North Dakota. CC won the WCHA outright and were extremely impressive this last weekend. North Dakota did come away with 2 ties this weekend, but Friday night they completely outplayed St. Cloud and due to a goal being disallowed came away with a tie. After CC closed out the regular season title, the Sioux had nothing to play for on Saturday. They still led almost the entire game and did so without Oshie in the lineup but for more than a few shifts. Plus, they are injured right now with Genoway and Trupp out of the lineup...yet they still manage to not lose. St. Cloud is a tough team with a lot to play for so to come out with a split, when UND didn't have a ton to play for....why they fell 3 spots is beyond me.

I'm cool with CC being an overall #1 seed, and I've got no problems with North Dakota heading to Madison and being paired with Wisconsin at the Kohl Center...but if they end up facing teams in the middle of the pack that would be an injustice. Both CC and North Dakota are much better teams than Michigan, NH or anyone else you put in the top 4 spots. I won't be surprised at all if it's an all WCHA Frozen Four just like it was a couple of years ago. I just hope that come tourney selection time, teams like Michigan don't get the homer positioning based on name and reputation.

And for the record, I'd rather have North Dakota play Michigan or New Hampshire on neutral ice before I'd want them to play any of the top half teams from the WCHA on their home ice.