Bracketology: Final

USCHO Newsbot · 03-18-2007, 10:50 PM

The games are done, which means it's time for Jayson Moy's final Bracketology of the season, projecting the field and the matchups as they will be announced Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Read more at uscho.com ...

Goon · 03-23-2008, 02:57 AM

I think Wisconsin should be home for the playoffs and MSU-M should be in but it isn't going to happen. I think a team should have to have a +.500 record to get in unless they win their conference tourney, Wisconsin missed the final five. Just my HMO...

gophers79 · 03-23-2008, 04:00 AM

Why wouldn't ND be sent West and NH be sent to the Northeast? I understand that ND is a flight either way, but it creates a flight situation for NH when they wouldn't need it. I guess it comes down to bracket integrity vs giving the #1 seeds the closest regionals based on rank order (if this were the case, Mich would be in Madison, Miami would be in Albany, UND would be in Colo. Springs, and NH would be in Worcester). Which of these two concerns would the committee care more about?

cats · 03-23-2008, 07:01 AM

If these become the final brackets I would say it's the worst I have seen...

Sending NH out west..what are we thinking?? Better for NH two be a number two seed and get the benefits that BC always gets. Same thing with ND!! What happen to the travel piece???? Someone has had a few to many smokes.

JB · 03-23-2008, 07:30 AM

Not a big fan of sub .500 Wisco getting in, because of games played against UNO, by other teams. At least MSU-M played UNO in December right before Princton and in Feb before NMU. Also at least MSU-M played a home and home with UNO. So we aren't talking about a terribly skewed sample of games - e.g. MSU-M playing UNO the first game of the year.

However, I think Wisco has to get in, it has to get in so that the process is still open and still works and that there aren't any smoke filled back rooms. By not putting Wisco in, it opens the door for lesser teams like MSU-M to get screwed out of the tournament in future year where the process says they are in, for all the wrong reasons - like name recognition. The process isn't perfect but at least it is an open process and we all should know how it works.

I have an issue with Moy's USCHO brackets. The first step is band the teams, the second step is to place the #1 seed as close to home as possible in order of 1-4 in the band. Grand Forks as the Crow flies is 739.2 miles from the Springs and 1284.3 for Worcester. Further more as the car drives (google maps) it is 1107 from the Springs and 1665 from Worcester. Either way the Springs is 545+ miles (or about 1/3 driving wise) closer to Grand Forks. In the past the committee has shown a flight is a flight tendency but I recall no time when that also affected a case where it tossed a non-flight team to flight status. I think that double holds true this year with the slower economy and higher travel cost (see women's first round seedings).

Also the committee since going to the 16 team tournament has never had an issue with potential 2nd round replays of Conference Tournament games. As fans we may like a more national feel but last year BC and UNH where both in Manchester and had played in the Hockey East Final the week before.

Finally the committee has shown a desire to get the 1-16, 8-9 type pattern but it also has shown the ability to move with in band and not have the #1 seed pulled around because of it. Think back to Cornell as a number one seed a few years back getting MSU-M to avoid the first round interconference match-up. The committee didn't protect that high #1 seed because those 4 seeds are a free floating band but in that year the #1 seed travel rule did hold up.

I may be wrong but I think it is pretty clear that North Dakota is going to the Springs and UNH is in Worcester. The mileage is just too off to swap that around. Now if the same thing was happening between (hypothetical 3-4 seeds) Miami and UND (Oxford 725 driving miles to Albany) then I think you might see a flight is a flight as both teams are flying.

Heck that is an interesting idea if not for bracket integrity issues. More national feel and Air Force could then stay in Colorado. Saves the NCAAs some money and adds attendance.

JB · 03-23-2008, 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cats

If these become the final brackets I would say it's the worst I have seen...

Sending NH out west..what are we thinking?? Better for NH two be a number two seed and get the benefits that BC always gets. Same thing with ND!! What happen to the travel piece???? Someone has had a few to many smokes.

Timeout! Get your facts straight!

I want to see UNH in Worcester as much as the next UNH fan but your assertion about BC is just wrong. BC has gone West for the regionals far more times than UNH has. UNH has been very lucky to stay East as often as they have. The bracket (and hosting in Manchester) has worked out very well over the years for the Cats.

BC has not been favored at all by the Committee holding them east over the years. Get your facts straight. Now if you said the same for BU in the 90's I might agree, they had UNH's position then - host in Worcester every other year and getting lucky for Albany the next year.

Jellsville USA · 03-23-2008, 08:33 AM

This is how I see it:
Northeast 4 NH vs 13 NDame East 2 Miami vs 4 Niagra
6 BC vs 10 Clarkson 7 Denver vs 9 Mich st.

Midwest 1 Mich vs 16 Airforce West 3 North Dakota vs 14 Princ
8 St. cloud vs 12 Wisconsin 5 ColoradoC. vs 11 MINN

If the committee considers Wisconsin they have to look at them as more of a 9 seed vs a 12 because of their home ice advantage, If you slot them at 9 and bump all the others in band 3 down you have perfect band integrity. you cannot avoid a first round WCHA matchup because of the 5 teams in. Fun to speculate isn't it??

Brickman · 03-23-2008, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goon

I think Wisconsin should be home for the playoffs and MSU-M should be in but it isn't going to happen. I think a team should have to have a +.500 record to get in unless they win their conference tourney, Wisconsin missed the final five. Just my HMO...

If the badgers hadn't got hosed in Denver by the ref they would have ended the season at least tied with St. Cloud and would have had home ice in the first round of the WCHA tournament. If the games would have been in Madison things would have been different and the badgers would have been in the final five. In my mind this is justification for getting a raw deal earlier in the year. Brickman

jdorf40 · 03-23-2008, 09:03 AM

I agree with Mr. Moy's predictions. Almost. I think off the top of my head...the only differences were that I had Minnesota and Clarkson swapped. Either way, I'm satisfied. I just thought North Dakota got hosed last year having to beat Minnesota and Michigan and was hoping that they'd end up not in the same bracket AGAIN. But it always makes victory road much sweeter when it goes thru Gopher land.

Colorado Springs
#13 Notre Dame at #4 New Hampshire
#9 Michigan St. at #5 Colorado College

Madison
#16 Air Force at #1 Michigan
#12 Wisconsin at #8 St. Cloud

Albany
#15 Niagara at #2 Miami
#11 Minnesota at #7 Denver

Worcestor
#14 Princeton at #3 North Dakota
#10 Clarkson at #6 Boston College

For all of you people crying about UNH having to travel...it's okay to be afraid of Colorado College being at home. I hope that UND doesn't end up there. But if you base it on INTEGRITY, UNH should have to travel. That's the way the game is played. As a Sioux fan, I'm glad they got that #1 seed and I hope the committee keeps them in Worcester rather than putting them in a bracket with a deadly Michigan State team and CC who is like 300-2 at home this year I think. I think they should get Worcester based on their seed and I think they'd agree.

Anyway, good luck everyone. It should be good times.

EBoone · 03-23-2008, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brickman

If the badgers hadn't got hosed in Denver by the ref they would have ended the season at least tied with St. Cloud and would have had home ice in the first round of the WCHA tournament. If the games would have been in Madison things would have been different and the badgers would have been in the final five. In my mind this is justification for getting a raw deal earlier in the year. Brickman

Good point. I wonder if someone can plug that correction into the PWR and see if it would have made a difference.

Jellsville USA · 03-23-2008, 09:18 AM

J. You may be right about NH going west but your bracket is flawed with Colorado playing Michigan st. in round 1. The top team in both bands 2 and 3 are sure to not meet in round 1.

kdilks · 03-23-2008, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EBoone

Good point. I wonder if someone can plug that correction into the PWR and see if it would have made a difference.

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2008/cgi-bin/rankings.cgi

You can individually change game scores and see the resulting pairwise. I changed some game between Wisconsin and Denver from 2-3 to 3-3 (I believe that's the proper "correction"), then Wisconsin gets 12 comparisons (12th), Mankato gets 10 (13th), and Notre Dame gets 9 (tied 14th with Princeton).

aktick · 03-23-2008, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EBoone

Good point. I wonder if someone can plug that correction into the PWR and see if it would have made a difference.

Just did so, and UW would have still been 12th, but with 12 comparison wins...they took the Notre Dame comparison. So, oddly enough, that shoulda-woulda-coulda been a tie vs. Denver game didn't keep Wisconsin out of the tourney, it kept Mankato out.

blockski · 03-23-2008, 10:10 AM

So, Wisconsin is in more or less because of the peculiarities of the PWR and the TUCliff, exposing how the crucial games in the head to head comparison of the bubble teams UW, ND, and Mankato were the games against UNO.

This isn't anything new, these kinds of screw-ups happen all the time with the PWR. It's no surprise, either, given the patchwork nature of the ranking system. Anytime you have to tweak the system each offseason, that's a sign of a bad system. It's not statistically robust at all, and a scenario like this exposes that.

So, the NCAA has two bad choices, and they've been put in that place by the flaws of the PWR. They can either expose the flaws in their own ranking system, which they've touted as so precise and so accurate that they cannot upend bracket integrity - by taking Wisconsin. Or, they can shoot a big hole in the transparency and predictability of the selection process, a huge asset to the college hockey community over the past 5-10 years.

icebadger · 03-23-2008, 10:41 AM

I don't see how they can leave Wisconsin out. The PWR is what it is. How can you jump MSUM two spots to get into the field (ahead of WI and Notre Dame)? I don't think Wisconsin deserves to be in, but neither do I think it deserves to get screwed as Moy describes. He also says attendance will be great with Mich and MSU in Madison. Is he kidding? Those two teams can't fill Grand Rapids! The Kohl Center will be 2/3 empty without Wisconsin there and I will be one of those empty seats.

St. Cloud State Fan · 03-23-2008, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by icebadger

He also says attendance will be great with Mich and MSU in Madison. Is he kidding? Those two teams can't fill Grand Rapids! The Kohl Center will be 2/3 empty without Wisconsin there and I will be one of those empty seats.

How ignorant are you? Do you also see that St. Cloud State is in Moy's regional?

If Michigan, SCSU and Michigan St. are there, I don't believe they would have any issues with attendance as they have three quality squads that would bring lots of fans.

GO HUSKIES!

icebadger · 03-23-2008, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by St. Cloud State Fan

How ignorant are you? Do you also see that St. Cloud State is in Moy's regional?

If Michigan, SCSU and Michigan St. are there, I don't believe they would have any issues with attendance as they have three quality squads that would bring lots of fans.

GO HUSKIES!

You're ignorant if you think Mich + MSU + SCSU will come close to matching the attendance with WI there.

St. Cloud State Fan · 03-23-2008, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by icebadger

You're ignorant if you think Mich + MSU + SCSU will come close to matching the attendance with WI there.

Thank you Mr. Obvious! So the tournament committee should just put in the Badgers because that will result in a few more people in the stands.

Never mind the fact they stunk down the stretch!

You're a fool if you think that regional won't have many fans there with three top-10 teams playing.

LETSGOSIOUX · 03-23-2008, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gophers79

Why wouldn't ND be sent West and NH be sent to the Northeast? I understand that ND is a flight either way, but it creates a flight situation for NH when they wouldn't need it. I guess it comes down to bracket integrity vs giving the #1 seeds the closest regionals based on rank order (if this were the case, Mich would be in Madison, Miami would be in Albany, UND would be in Colo. Springs, and NH would be in Worcester). Which of these two concerns would the committee care more about?

I never thought I'd agree with a gopher fan, but its finally happened. Sending ND to the NE regional adds and extra 600 miles for the loyal Sioux fans as opposed to sending them down to CC. Sending NH to the West puts them on a plane instead of a 90 mile bus ride and stifles attendence. Doesn't make any sense. I hope we didn't bracket them up this way to aviod a possibe BC/NH matchup giving only one Hockey East team a chance to the Frozen four. Let's hope the selection board sees it differently.

icebadger · 03-23-2008, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by St. Cloud State Fan

Thank you Mr. Obvious! So the tournament committee should just put in the Badgers because that will result in a few more people in the stands.

Never mind the fact they stunk down the stretch!

You're a fool if you think that regional won't have many fans there with three top-10 teams playing.

And you're a fool if you think the committee wouldn't consider that the regional is in Madison before they dropped the Badgers 2 PWR spots and thereby out of the tournament. You're also a fool if you don't think the NCAA is all about money and therefore all about attendance. I'm not saying the Badgers should be in because of attendance, I'm saying it could play a factor. You're a fool if you don't think the attendance with WI would be greater than without WI. Let's also remember that Madison is further from Mich/MSU than Grand Rapids which is already a destination too far away for their fans. You SCSU fans may want to save yourselves the drive instead of coming all the way to Madison for another 1st round NCAA Tourney exit!