The Official Thread of the 2006 Boston Red Sox

[UMO Better Blues]

Less than 2 days until pitchers and catchers officially have to report, but since Keith Foulke has become the first veteran to make an appearance on the practice field in a sanctioned practice, I think we can start this thread now. That, and the off-season thread was buried a few pages back

Lots of questions this year, but I love this team. As a fan, I'm really looking forward to how the storylines will play out. Will the afore-mentioned Foulke bounce back? Will Lowell or Nixon? Can Coco make the offense jump like Johnny did? Why does the national media hate Josh Beckett? And many more. I think all of these storylines will make for an exciting season.

Let's get it started.

[Jon]

This will be a much better defensive ball club and that will help.
One caveat: while I think Gonzalez is an upgrade over the Artist Impersonating Edgar Renteria, I'm a bit cautious about expecting our new SS to transition to the AL as smoothly as Cabrera did.
Big question marks are the closer, hitting, back up catcher (I miss Hatteberg already) and offense outside of Pappy and Manny.

BTW: How funny is it that Manny never got traded? I hope John Dennis' head explodes all over the back nine of whatever chi-chi golf course he's parked at this week.

[Haunted]

On February 1st I started a win pool with guys I work with. Since, of course, nothing will change between February and October, I figured I'd start it then.

Anyway, I picked 97 - 65.

Anyone else?

[UMO Better Blues]

Originally Posted by Haunted

On February 1st I started a win pool with guys I work with. Since, of course, nothing will change between February and October, I figured I'd start it then.

Anyway, I picked 97 - 65.

Anyone else?

I'm genuinely curious as to what impact Toronto will have on the NY/Sox win totals. I personally think they are currently overrated. They did make some nice moves, but why is AJ Burnett at 5/55 considered a great pickup while 2 years of Beckett at the price of one year of Burnett considered "risky." Both have had injury problems. Sure, Burnett has two 200+ IP seasons under his belt, but that's only by a combined 13 IP. Beckett has averaged 159 IP over the past three years. Not great, I'll admit, but better than AJ's 117 IP (209 IP in 2005). Can Ryan close in a pressure situation? I think their defense takes a big hit with the loss of Hudson and Koskie. Regardless, if the moves do pan out, how will an improved Toronto team affect both NY and BOS. Can 3 ALE teams win 90+. I would tend to doubt it.

I think Boston finishes the regular season in the 95 win range.

[UMO Better Blues]

Originally Posted by Jon

This will be a much better defensive ball club and that will help.
One caveat: while I think Gonzalez is an upgrade over the Artist Impersonating Edgar Renteria, I'm a bit cautious about expecting our new SS to transition to the AL as smoothly as Cabrera did.
Big question marks are the closer, hitting, back up catcher (I miss Hatteberg already) and offense outside of Pappy and Manny.

BTW: How funny is it that Manny never got traded? I hope John Dennis' head explodes all over the back nine of whatever chi-chi golf course he's parked at this week.

If Gonzalez can manage to catch the ball and not blow out his elbow and hit .240, he'll be an improvement over Edgar. Back up catcher is a key position this year. Varitek needs more regular rest. I think he really wore down as the season wore on. He's getting to the point where an offensive drop off can be expected. I hope Bard can learn to hit a little bit and contribute from the backup role. Flaherty and Huckaby can carry Mirabelli's jock, so hopefully Bard has something.

I don't think the offense will drop off too much, although a lot of that depends on Crisp. Damon was a huge part of the offense last year. It will be interesting to see if Coco can hit in the leadoff spot. My hope is that the vastly improved defense will offset the decreased offense. It should also do wonders for the pitching staff.

I thought Foulke was a total wreck on and off the field last year. I don't know which Foulke will show up this year. Last year was by far the worst year of his career. Hopefully, his injuries have healed and he can get back to putting up numbers closer to his 2003-2004 totals. If he stinks, his postion will be the toughest to fill.

[NCAA watcher]

Originally Posted by UMO Better Blues

I'm genuinely curious as to what impact Toronto will have on the NY/Sox win totals.

Well, we can't go any worse than the 6-13 we usually finish against them.

I'm optimistic, counting on a rebound by Schilling (15 wins), Lowell (20-25 HRs) and Trot. Beckett will win 16, and if Foulke falters, Papelbon, then Hansen are ready. They'll be fun to watch, and I figure 96 wins.

The Yanks will croak a lot of teams in 70 of their wins, but will struggle in tight games against good pitching, because their pitching will be questionable.

[Pal]

Originally Posted by UMO Better Blues

They did make some nice moves, but why is AJ Burnett at 5/55 considered a great pickup while 2 years of Beckett at the price of one year of Burnett considered "risky." Both have had injury problems. Sure, Burnett has two 200+ IP seasons under his belt, but that's only by a combined 13 IP. Beckett has averaged 159 IP over the past three years. Not great, I'll admit, but better than AJ's 117 IP (209 IP in 2005).

The short answer is that the Red Sox need Beckett to become their ace of the future, while Toronto only needs Burnett to be a decent #2 guy.

[Jon]

And I'm surprised that no one called me out on this: I meant Mirabelli, not Hatteberg.

[Pal]

I think we were all too busy envisioning John Dennis' head exploding!

[UMO Better Blues]

Originally Posted by Jon

And I'm surprised that no one called me out on this: I meant Mirabelli, not Hatteberg.

That's because we all still miss Hatteberg, too

[JohnB]

Originally Posted by Pal

The short answer is that the Red Sox need Beckett to become their ace of the future, while Toronto only needs Burnett to be a decent #2 guy.

Exactly... I'll go w/ 92 wins max for the Sox this year. Too many health (mental and physical) question marks remaining.

[IanAtKDR]

Originally Posted by Jon

And I'm surprised that no one called me out on this: I meant Mirabelli, not Hatteberg.

I saw it, but then I started thinking about how I miss Todd Pratt on the Mets already.

[UMO Better Blues]

Originally Posted by Pal

The short answer is that the Red Sox need Beckett to become their ace of the future, while Toronto only needs Burnett to be a decent #2 guy.

Not necessarily. The Sox also have Papelbon (~6 months younger than Beckett) and Jon Lester coming along. It doesn't fall entirely on Beckett. I'm just surprised at the notion that the Burnett was so much of a better deal than the Beckett deal.

Re: AJ as the #2, Halladay is only averaging 135 or so IP the past two years (given: he was a stud in 02-03), so he needs to prove himself healthy for a full season as well.

[Jon]

Originally Posted by Pal

I think we were all too busy envisioning John Dennis' head exploding!

Unfortunately, the only person who will have their head explode any time soon is of interest to both of us. And that would be Arsene Wenger.

Incidentally, hearing Mike Adams on the morning show was lovely today. I don't know what that means for tonight's entertainment, but hey pitchers and catchers are reporting so I'm sure he can double shift. Unless we want Teddy back...

I'd like to be 12,000,000 person to agree with the idea that the season will hinge on Foulke.

[Rhett]

Originally Posted by Jon

And I'm surprised that no one called me out on this: I meant Mirabelli, not Hatteberg.

It still made sense.

[MC Puck Fan]

I might be the only one that thinks this, but does anyone else have more confidence in Foulke rebound than Schilling?

I mean Schilling is older and coming back from a far different injury. Foulke didn't just have injury problems last season so hopefully everything is behind him which will make things that much easier for him.

[NCAA watcher]

Originally Posted by MC Puck Fan

I might be the only one that thinks this, but does anyone else have more confidence in Foulke rebound than Schilling?

I mean Schilling is older and coming back from a far different injury. Foulke didn't just have injury problems last season so hopefully everything is behind him which will make things that much easier for him.

Schilling's ankle is back to near pre-injury strength. I trust his ability to come back (factoring in the normal decline he'd have had at 39). On the other hand, Foulke's problems with Kelly Barons will remain.

[Pal]

Originally Posted by UMO Better Blues

Not necessarily. The Sox also have Papelbon (~6 months younger than Beckett) and Jon Lester coming along. It doesn't fall entirely on Beckett. I'm just surprised at the notion that the Burnett was so much of a better deal than the Beckett deal.

Re: AJ as the #2, Halladay is only averaging 135 or so IP the past two years (given: he was a stud in 02-03), so he needs to prove himself healthy for a full season as well.

I certainly think Papelbon has the potential to become an ace, but that's no sure bet at this point. Some of the comparisons that get tossed around (the next Clemens?!) are more than a bit premature. Could happen, but he hasn't even started a whole season at the major league level (and he'd likely be moved to closer if Foulke falters). So that's why the Sox need Beckett to come through.

Halladay's injuries aren't of the variety that put his ability to bounce back in any doubt. In '04 his shoulder got tired from throwing so much in the previous two seasons, and last year's broken leg on a line drive was just a freak injury. I'd expect him to be back to his dominating form this season (and I hope so since I have him in my keeper league ).

Originally Posted by Jon

Unfortunately, the only person who will have their head explode any time soon is of interest to both of us. And that would be Arsene Wenger.

Ooh, if that happens can we get Souness to replace him?

[justinD]

Originally Posted by JohnB

Exactly... I'll go w/ 92 wins max for the Sox this year. Too many health (mental and physical) question marks remaining.

you think they will win 3 less games than last year? if foulke is so awful they shut him down and schill has an ERA of about 6.50...then they replicate last year. anything from those guys is bonus after last year. our HEAVILY flawed team won 95 games last year. let me try a quick breakdown position by posistion (very subjective of course)

05 vs. 06 comparison.
c- tek and belli v. tek and ?- gotta say slight '05 advantage
1b-millah and johnny O v. youk and snow- i'm a youk beleiver...'06 edge
2b-horny/graff/cora v. loretta- in case you don't know, loretta is the man- '06
ss- edgar's corpse v. gonzo- improved D...of course i would be...'06
3b- mueller v. lowell- we'll miss the pro, lowell HAS to improve, especially looking at that LF wall- gotta go '05 and hope lowell proves me wrong
lf- manny v. manny- just manny being manny (.300, 40, 140)...push
cf- hollywood johnny v. covelli- last year that jesus is better, and maybe not even...'05 slightly
rf- trot/whoever v. trot/whoever- push
dh- god v. david ortiz- no way he's that good again, or is he?...push

so more or less the same for positional players...slightly worse offense, much better defense...fair trade

for the sake of simplifying the argument let's say that schill is done and so is foulke, so we'll take them out of the equation for next year

'05 sp- wake/wells/arroyo/clement/miller (5th on team w/ 16 starts)
'06 sp- wake/wells/arroyo/clement/beckett

so if schilling does NOTHING, in fact has a negative impact, we still upgrade from wade miller to josh beckett. yes i think beckett will go on the DL during the year b/c of blisters, but even in his prime, petey would get hurt once a year and go on the DL for 15 days...no big thing

'05 bullpen- foulke/timlin/myers/bradford/embree/gonzalez/mantei/paps/dinardo/halama/remlinger/neal/harville/delcarmen/schill
(by the way...any bullpen is better than that one...ugh)
'06 bullpen- timlin/riske/seanez/tavarez/paps/dinardo...with a whole bunch of young flamethrowers in AAA.

pitching certianly appears to be better, even if schill and foulke are finished. the bullpen has to be better.

i would trade clement for a rosin bag and put paps in the rotation...tell fat boy he's staying and he likes it.

despite all of this crap i have written, i suppose 92 wins isn't a terrible call, i just think the question is whether you think they will be better than last year?
and how can injuries (mental?) be worse?

[UMO Better Blues]

Curt Schilling is never at a loss for words.

To Beckett: ''I started laying out the media minefield for him, explained to him that there are three or four of you guys that he can actually trust and the rest you just kick to the curb. I just, we just were talking about the life, what it's like here, how different it is in a good way."