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2017 Pairwise thread
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Just to show how probability can delude one into thinking something is absolute think RIT likes their 2% chance better than Niagara's absolute 0% chance with over 4000 runs after tonight's first period. NU leads 2-0. Of course that may not hold but stranger things have happened.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by BC/HE View PostTherein lies the problem with probability simulations. Probability does not make a lock, possibility does.
CHN's afternoon run with 20k simulations gave Niagara a printed 0.00. Happy now?Last edited by Tater; 03-05-2017, 07:12 PM.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by BC/HE View PostJust to show how probability can delude one into thinking something is absolute think RIT likes their 2% chance better than Niagara's absolute 0% chance with over 4000 runs after tonight's first period. NU leads 2-0. Of course that may not hold but stranger things have happened.BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09
Jerseys I would like to have:
Skating Friar Jersey
AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
Army Black Knight logo jersey
NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Patman View Postthat's to make the NCAAs... though I would choose a method that hedges more... CHN doesn't account for uncertainty in the estimator.Go Pioneers!
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by MagnessMan View PostI think this thread needs to go back to it's reason for existing. Does someone want to start a new thread for fans of privileged east coast schools who fear going west and cry loudly?
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Fargo
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v North Dakota
Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Minnesota v Providence
Providence
2. Duluth v AQ1
Boston University v Pedo State
Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell
Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by ticapnews View PostFargo
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v North Dakota
Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Minnesota v Providence
Providence
2. Duluth v AQ1
Boston University v Pedo State
Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell
Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.
Problem with Cincinnati is that the nearby schools are WMU, who really shouldn't be there based on the proximity for #1 seeds rule, and then Penn St, Ohio St, and NoDame. And, it's not at all sure that all 3 of those will actually make the field.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by ticapnews View PostFargo
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v North Dakota
Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Minnesota v Providence
Providence
2. Duluth v AQ1
Boston University v Pedo State
Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell
Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09
Jerseys I would like to have:
Skating Friar Jersey
AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
Army Black Knight logo jersey
NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Numbers View PostLots of hockey yet to be played. And, should the PWR come out exactly as it is now, I am pretty sure you would see Minn v NoDak.
Problem with Cincinnati is that the nearby schools are WMU, who really shouldn't be there based on the proximity for #1 seeds rule, and then Penn St, Ohio St, and NoDame. And, it's not at all sure that all 3 of those will actually make the field.Originally posted by Patman View PostI think they'd send BU out west to Grand Forks and send Penn State to Cincinnati... Between UML and BU I think it'll come down to whoever is higher in the PWR... the worse one will probably end up in Fargo
Fargo
2. Duluth v AQ1
Minnesota v North Dakota
Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Boston University v Pedo State
Providence
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v Providence
Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell
...but it'll never happen because the Pios need to go to Fargo for some reason. Even though a flight is a flight and they're flying no matter what.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.Last edited by BC/HE; 03-05-2017, 11:16 PM.
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Originally posted by BC/HE View PostI find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.
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