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Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

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  • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

    Don Lucia flat out said it in the presser
    Code:
    As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
    College Hockey 6       College Football 0
    BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
    Originally posted by SanTropez
    May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
    Originally posted by bigblue_dl
    I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
    Originally posted by Kepler
    When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
    He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

    Comment


    • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

      Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
      Yes, I know that in a single game a 1 seed can get beat by a 4 seed and it’s happened more often recently.

      That doesn’t really negate any of what I said there though. That just says that a single game of hockey is flukey. Making the NCAA’s is more of a long term goal and while it’s possible to get unlucky over that many games and miss, it’s pretty uncommon. Doing it five times in ten years points to a much bigger issue than bad luck and parity.
      Well my point is that prior to the Holy Cross victory, a hockey game in the NCAA wasn't as 'fluky' as it is now. And that isn't because the game itself has changed much. It is because teams are so much closer in skill. Same reason that teams that 'almost always make the tourney' aren't making it as often. I think Holy Cross, while viewed at the time as one of the great upsets in sports, was just a sign of what was coming. And with that parity, comes lower winning percentages during the year and more difficulty making the tourney than what was happening through the first several years of a 16 team tourney. As I said, I'm not arguing your point that things could be better than this year. I am just saying that a lot of people think MN should be able to be as consistently dominant as they were in the early to mid 2000's given their advantages, and I don't think that is realistic. Things have changed. I am also trying to point out that I think the bitter taste of the last four games has really clouded the memory for the season, that while inconsistent, included some pretty good stretches as well.

      This years team had a lot of games with poor effort that doomed them once the stars aligned against them at the end. One of the writers talked about Lucia being frustrated at times that the players just didn't seem to get the message, no matter what the coaches tried. So with some new faces and a new make-up, and especially if CM decides to stay, it is reasonable to expect this team might perform better next year, compared to this (regression towards the mean). The new coach would receive credit. But I could also envision that in 5 years, they aren't near the top in the country and people will start rumbling about the coach again. Hopefully I am wrong, but I really think that as long as kids are recruited at 15 (or younger) and the NHL CBA favors signing young guys, it is going to be much more difficult for MN to consistently be in the top 10. (And maybe this isn't clear, I am not saying that the traditional powers will be at the same level as the Maine's, MSU's, Western Michigan's, Quinnipiac's, but that the size of the gap between these teams that existed 15 years ago has shrunk considerably. And there are more SCSU's, UMD's etc. that will be very close.)

      Comment


      • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

        It’s almost a coin flip in every game now. The 1-4 seeds were sub .600.
        Code:
        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
        College Hockey 6       College Football 0
        BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
        Originally posted by SanTropez
        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
        Originally posted by Kepler
        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

        Comment


        • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

          Originally posted by Koho View Post
          According to others, Lucia was headed this way for a few years. Russo said he thought Lucia would have retired this year regardless of what happened. Lucia told the story of sitting in an arena watching Bantams and asking himself if he really wanted to do this any longer. He suggested he brought up retirement to Coyle, not vice versa. One statement by Serratore doesn't prove anything. Lucia easily could have been referring to the pressure from idiots like us and alums who were being critical. He has always had tons of pressure and criticism and he had had enough, from the sounds of it. That could just as easily have been what he was 'surrendering to'. Everything else suggests that the only real pressure he got from Coyle was the fact that an extension hadn't been offered. None of us really know what happened and I don't thin the Serratore comment makes it any clearer.
          If tDon made the tourney this year, I bet he would have come back next year, just to finish out his contract, and the U would have been scouting out a replacement. How things turned out this year accelerated that, I think, and the extra noise that fence-sitting fans (like me) finally made may have or may have not added to that decision. Until this year, I was on the "keep tDon" bandwagon, but barely.
          Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
          Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

          Comment


          • Originally posted by SteveO View Post
            That would be ill-advised Trix, unless you want to suffer the slings and arrows of a lack of internal validity and homogeneity of variance. In this case, a researcher wants to demonstrate that the DV (ranking variable) is a linear function of the IVs.

            There's better "training data" and a better constant (SOS) chosen for the ranking criterion you're after. If you want to be REALLY technical about your study, it's noteworthy that the least squares regression algorithm necessary for DV accuracy may be fraught with covariates such as outliers that arise from the stochastic relationship between victory margins and relative effort or from the imperfect (and censored) measurement of team ability. Regression models in sports typically have these confounding issues and MORE!

            However, based on the above (using the correct constant in the regression algo.) and face validity alone, I suspect the Gophers would not deviate much from the chart I posted before. Sorry about the technical stuff here, but hard to explain it accurately without some of it. There's more but I digress.
            Nothing wrong with being technical, put more simply I get that factoring that into the analysis would be tougher to do. But I’m not going to get too enamored with win percentage when we know a lot of it is propped up by other factors such as the B1G being horrible and the Gophers basically sneaking in with an autobid one of those years and straight up missing altogether despite winning a league title in another. Looking at those years individually you have 4 good ones and 3 pretty bad ones.

            5 NCAA’s in ten years is awful for this program no matter how you slice it. Your analysis sorta cut out those 3 years too because Don was ill, I don’t think that necessarily is as deserving of a pass as some do I guess and I’m not just gonna throw that data out. If you include it I’d hazard our win % isn’t as impressive.

            Comment


            • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

              I see Fred's back.
              Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
              Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Koho View Post
                Well my point is that prior to the Holy Cross victory, a hockey game in the NCAA wasn't as 'fluky' as it is now. And that isn't because the game itself has changed much. It is because teams are so much closer in skill. Same reason that teams that 'almost always make the tourney' aren't making it as often. I think Holy Cross, while viewed at the time as one of the great upsets in sports, was just a sign of what was coming. And with that parity, comes lower winning percentages during the year and more difficulty making the tourney than what was happening through the first several years of a 16 team tourney. As I said, I'm not arguing your point that things could be better than this year. I am just saying that a lot of people think MN should be able to be as consistently dominant as they were in the early to mid 2000's given their advantages, and I don't think that is realistic. Things have changed. I am also trying to point out that I think the bitter taste of the last four games has really clouded the memory for the season, that while inconsistent, included some pretty good stretches as well.

                This years team had a lot of games with poor effort that doomed them once the stars aligned against them at the end. One of the writers talked about Lucia being frustrated at times that the players just didn't seem to get the message, no matter what the coaches tried. So with some new faces and a new make-up, and especially if CM decides to stay, it is reasonable to expect this team might perform better next year, compared to this (regression towards the mean). The new coach would receive credit. But I could also envision that in 5 years, they aren't near the top in the country and people will start rumbling about the coach again. Hopefully I am wrong, but I really think that as long as kids are recruited at 15 (or younger) and the NHL CBA favors signing young guys, it is going to be much more difficult for MN to consistently be in the top 10. (And maybe this isn't clear, I am not saying that the traditional powers will be at the same level as the Maine's, MSU's, Western Michigan's, Quinnipiac's, but that the size of the gap between these teams that existed 15 years ago has shrunk considerably. And there are more SCSU's, UMD's etc. that will be very close.)
                .

                Agree with most everything you have said. Your posts are very thoughtful and insightful.

                Comment


                • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

                  Originally posted by MavHockey14 View Post
                  Take it for what it’s worth, but a source who I trust told me tonight that Grant Potulny is the next head coach at MN. It won’t be announced for a little while, but he’s their guy and he’s accepted the job.
                  Well, he's a little older than compared to Fleck and Pitino so this rumor might have some legs. lol
                  Slap Shot - 444 might want to consider a restraining order.
                  dggoddard - Minnesota is THE ELITE Program in all of college hockey.
                  wasmania - you have to be the very best to get ice time with the great gophers!

                  Comment


                  • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

                    Originally posted by chickod View Post
                    .

                    Agree with most everything you have said. Your posts are very thoughtful and insightful.
                    You obviously haven't read my posts in past Bemidji Beaver game threads. I can be plenty immature too.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

                      Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
                      5 NCAA’s in ten years is awful for this program.
                      Based upon what historically? Your sample size notwithstanding they made it 10/15 years and 13/19 and no coach other than Woog (who never won a NC) can beat that. Not even Brooks although obviously Brooks did more once his teams got there. I agree it was time to move on, but you have a really bizarre, unhealthy and quite frankly ignorant perspective on the big picture of Lucia's tenure.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Slap Shot View Post
                        Based upon what historically? Your sample size notwithstanding they made it 10/15 years and 13/19 and no coach other than Woog (who never won a NC) can beat that. Not even Brooks although obviously Brooks did more once his teams got there. I agree it was time to move on, but you have a really bizarre, unhealthy and quite frankly ignorant perspective on the big picture of Lucia's tenure.
                        No I don’t, if anything I can look at the last decade more rationally than those who saw the title runs and the years before it. He was great from 1999-2007. After that success was fleeting for the most part.

                        As for comparisons Motzko, Sandy, and Hak all did better during that timeframe in terms of making the dance. BU and BC as well.

                        And the main reason I use that timeframe is because that’s when I started my fandom (06-07 season was my freshman year and I didn’t catch as many games as I would’ve liked). It’s not like ten years is some small sample and it mostly aligns with when the CBA changed.
                        Last edited by trixR4kids; 03-24-2018, 04:25 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

                          Originally posted by Koho View Post
                          Well my point is that prior to the Holy Cross victory, a hockey game in the NCAA wasn't as 'fluky' as it is now. And that isn't because the game itself has changed much. It is because teams are so much closer in skill. Same reason that teams that 'almost always make the tourney' aren't making it as often. I think Holy Cross, while viewed at the time as one of the great upsets in sports, was just a sign of what was coming. And with that parity, comes lower winning percentages during the year and more difficulty making the tourney than what was happening through the first several years of a 16 team tourney. As I said, I'm not arguing your point that things could be better than this year. I am just saying that a lot of people think MN should be able to be as consistently dominant as they were in the early to mid 2000's given their advantages, and I don't think that is realistic. Things have changed. I am also trying to point out that I think the bitter taste of the last four games has really clouded the memory for the season, that while inconsistent, included some pretty good stretches as well.

                          This years team had a lot of games with poor effort that doomed them once the stars aligned against them at the end. One of the writers talked about Lucia being frustrated at times that the players just didn't seem to get the message, no matter what the coaches tried. So with some new faces and a new make-up, and especially if CM decides to stay, it is reasonable to expect this team might perform better next year, compared to this (regression towards the mean). The new coach would receive credit. But I could also envision that in 5 years, they aren't near the top in the country and people will start rumbling about the coach again. Hopefully I am wrong, but I really think that as long as kids are recruited at 15 (or younger) and the NHL CBA favors signing young guys, it is going to be much more difficult for MN to consistently be in the top 10. (And maybe this isn't clear, I am not saying that the traditional powers will be at the same level as the Maine's, MSU's, Western Michigan's, Quinnipiac's, but that the size of the gap between these teams that existed 15 years ago has shrunk considerably. And there are more SCSU's, UMD's etc. that will be very close.)
                          I get that parity is greater now but it’s also much greater in the NHL where you have a draft system to more evenly distribute young talent. You still have plenty of haves and have nots in that league and teams with sustained success (obviously the tournament format is much different) despite the fact that it’s harder to do by design.

                          I get that picking younger players has made things harder more recently but you still get to pick them and certain teams have bigger advantages than others there. And once you do that you can tailor your system to that talent. I just think that even if you believe 9 out of every 10 NCAA’s in unrealistic, we should be able to do better than 5/10. 8 seems pretty realistic and 7 most definitely is. I get that Don got sick but it doesn’t really explain all of what we saw those seasons or any of the ineptitude beyond.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

                            Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
                            And the main reason I use that timeframe is because that’s when I started my fandom...
                            Enough said.

                            Comment


                            • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

                              No not really. Let me guess you’re mad that he didn’t get an extension?

                              Comment


                              • Re: Don Lucia steps down as Minnesota Gophers coach

                                Originally posted by trixR4kids View Post
                                No not really. Let me guess you’re mad that he didn’t get an extension?
                                Uh, I've said for a few weeks now it was time to make a change.

                                Comment

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