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2017 Pairwise thread

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  • #61
    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Originally posted by LTI Alum View Post
    I'm sure the NC$$ has these numbers from the last to Manchester regionals. Both events occurred on the Fri./Sat. Schedule.
    2013 Lowell #1 seed, #3 national ranking. Friday attendance 8000, Saturday attendance 8400.
    2015 BU #1seed, #2 national ranking. Friday attendance 5100, Saturday attendance 4700.
    OK let's be fair. UNH played both days with Lowell in 2013 along with Wisconsin and Denver.
    BU's bracket had Yale, Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth.
    A HUGE disparity in attendance. Is this a rational comparison, or does UNH render it moot?
    well duh!!!!

    a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

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    • #62
      Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

      Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
      Where would you send them?
      fARGO# or Cincinnati##

      #UND 3 seed
      ##UND 4 seed
      GO DU !!!

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      • #63
        Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

        Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
        well duh!!!!

        Umm, so you're sayin maybe UNH might have had something to do with those attendance figures

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        • #64
          Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

          I think this thread needs to go back to it's reason for existing. Does someone want to start a new thread for fans of privileged east coast schools who fear going west and cry loudly?
          Go Pioneers!

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          • #65
            Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

            Just to show how probability can delude one into thinking something is absolute think RIT likes their 2% chance better than Niagara's absolute 0% chance with over 4000 runs after tonight's first period. NU leads 2-0. Of course that may not hold but stranger things have happened.

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            • #66
              Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

              Originally posted by BC/HE View Post
              Therein lies the problem with probability simulations. Probability does not make a lock, possibility does.
              It's not a problem. We are not trying to calculate quantum mechanics here. We don't need that level of specificity. Whether a team has a blank next to them, or 0.00%, 0.001%, 0.003%, it doesn't matter. We know it isn't happening. They've said before that they could run the simulation tens of thousands of more times, but it doesn't make an appreciable difference in the results.

              CHN's afternoon run with 20k simulations gave Niagara a printed 0.00. Happy now?
              Last edited by Tater; 03-05-2017, 07:12 PM.

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              • #67
                Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                Originally posted by BC/HE View Post
                Just to show how probability can delude one into thinking something is absolute think RIT likes their 2% chance better than Niagara's absolute 0% chance with over 4000 runs after tonight's first period. NU leads 2-0. Of course that may not hold but stranger things have happened.
                that's to make the NCAAs... though I would choose a method that hedges more... CHN doesn't account for uncertainty in the estimator.
                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                Jerseys I would like to have:
                Skating Friar Jersey
                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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                • #68
                  Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                  Originally posted by Patman View Post
                  that's to make the NCAAs... though I would choose a method that hedges more... CHN doesn't account for uncertainty in the estimator.
                  What's the probability people will get confused about the predictions to make the tourny?
                  Go Pioneers!

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                  • #69
                    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                    Originally posted by MagnessMan View Post
                    I think this thread needs to go back to it's reason for existing. Does someone want to start a new thread for fans of privileged east coast schools who fear going west and cry loudly?
                    What about fans of privileged western schools who fear going east and cry loudly?

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                      Fargo
                      1. Denver v AQ2
                      Union v North Dakota

                      Cincinnati
                      4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
                      Minnesota v Providence

                      Providence
                      2. Duluth v AQ1
                      Boston University v Pedo State

                      Manchester
                      3. Harvard v Notre Dame
                      Lowell v Cornell

                      Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                        Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                        Fargo
                        1. Denver v AQ2
                        Union v North Dakota

                        Cincinnati
                        4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
                        Minnesota v Providence

                        Providence
                        2. Duluth v AQ1
                        Boston University v Pedo State

                        Manchester
                        3. Harvard v Notre Dame
                        Lowell v Cornell

                        Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.
                        Lots of hockey yet to be played. And, should the PWR come out exactly as it is now, I am pretty sure you would see Minn v NoDak.

                        Problem with Cincinnati is that the nearby schools are WMU, who really shouldn't be there based on the proximity for #1 seeds rule, and then Penn St, Ohio St, and NoDame. And, it's not at all sure that all 3 of those will actually make the field.

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                        • #72
                          Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                          Originally posted by ticapnews View Post
                          Fargo
                          1. Denver v AQ2
                          Union v North Dakota

                          Cincinnati
                          4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
                          Minnesota v Providence

                          Providence
                          2. Duluth v AQ1
                          Boston University v Pedo State

                          Manchester
                          3. Harvard v Notre Dame
                          Lowell v Cornell

                          Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.
                          I think they'd send BU out west to Grand Forks and send Penn State to Cincinnati... Between UML and BU I think it'll come down to whoever is higher in the PWR... the worse one will probably end up in Fargo
                          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                          Jerseys I would like to have:
                          Skating Friar Jersey
                          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                          Army Black Knight logo jersey


                          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                            Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                            Lots of hockey yet to be played. And, should the PWR come out exactly as it is now, I am pretty sure you would see Minn v NoDak.

                            Problem with Cincinnati is that the nearby schools are WMU, who really shouldn't be there based on the proximity for #1 seeds rule, and then Penn St, Ohio St, and NoDame. And, it's not at all sure that all 3 of those will actually make the field.
                            Originally posted by Patman View Post
                            I think they'd send BU out west to Grand Forks and send Penn State to Cincinnati... Between UML and BU I think it'll come down to whoever is higher in the PWR... the worse one will probably end up in Fargo
                            That's all irrelevant. All that matters is Denver going to Fargo. Haven't you been paying attention to the thread? If the NCAA actually cared about money and attendance, then they might do something like this

                            Fargo
                            2. Duluth v AQ1
                            Minnesota v North Dakota

                            Cincinnati
                            4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
                            Boston University v Pedo State

                            Providence
                            1. Denver v AQ2
                            Union v Providence

                            Manchester
                            3. Harvard v Notre Dame
                            Lowell v Cornell

                            ...but it'll never happen because the Pios need to go to Fargo for some reason. Even though a flight is a flight and they're flying no matter what.

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                            • #74
                              Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                              I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.
                              Last edited by BC/HE; 03-05-2017, 11:16 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by BC/HE View Post
                                I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.
                                I use AQ1 and AQ2 because those teams/conferences do not qualify for an at-large berth. USAF is 16th. They're not there yet.

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