Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #61
    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Just got back in time!!!! Will have to put both my picks and Jenny's together on this one post as she cannot seem to remember her login information password and is too pressed for time so here goes.

    Me

    1. Harvard
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Cornell
    4. Yale
    5. RPI
    6. Union
    7. Clarkson
    8. SLU
    9. Princeton
    10. Dartmouth
    11. Colgate
    12. Brown


    Jenny

    1. Harvard
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Cornell
    4. Union
    5. RPI
    6. Clarkson
    7.Yale
    8. Princeton
    9. Dartmouth
    10.Colgate
    11. St. Lawrence
    12. Brown
    Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

      1. Harvard
      2. Clarkson
      3. Quinnipiac
      4. RPI
      5. Union
      6. Cornell
      7. Yale
      8. Dartmouth
      9. St. Lawrence
      10. Princeton
      11. Colgate
      12. Brown

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

        Here are the final statistics for all human entries (not including the Random Number, Mr. Last Year, and the Fan Average; n=46):
        Code:
        Team       |  Mean±SD   | Median(Range) |
        -----------------------------------------
        Harvard    |  1.59±1.44 |   1   ( 1-10) |
        Quinnipiac |  2.59±1.24 |   2   ( 1- 6) |
        Clarkson   |  3.80±2.07 |   3   ( 1-12) |
        Cornell    |  3.83±1.27 |   4   ( 2- 7) |
        Princeton  |  5.91±1.98 |   5   ( 1-12) |
        Yale       |  6.57±1.63 |   7   ( 3-11) |
        Union      |  6.98±2.01 |   7   ( 3-12) |
        RPI        |  8.13±2.86 |   9   ( 1-12) |
        SLU        |  8.30±2.40 |   9   ( 1-12) |
        Dartmouth  |  9.48±1.95 |  10   ( 2-12) |
        Colgate    |  9.89±1.87 |  10   ( 3-12) |
        Brown      | 10.98±1.33 |  11.5 ( 7-12) |
        The most consensus around any given team was Quinnipiac, though Harvard received more votes for a single position (1st, 31) than any other team. RPI had the least consensus, evidenced with a very wide distribution and the fewest votes for its mode (10th, 8) of any team. As the saying goes, never bet for or against RPI!

        No team was picked to finish in every position, and no position had every team picked at least once.

        hockeyplayer1015's entry most closely matches the fan average (only flipping the positions of Harvard and Quinnipiac), while the RPI Standings Board is the most different (ColSkate65 and Rjm7272 hold that crown for those who actually post on the board). As I mentioned in a previous post, LTsatch and The Coaches made identical entries.

        Visualizations


        Data on the first graph represent the mean ± SD ranking of all human entries. The second shows the frequency with which each team was predicted for each position.
        RPI Pep Band
        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

          lugnut, TMI, you are way over my head. i was an English major, not a math major
          COLGATE HOCKEY:"Is this the year?"

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

            Well we're five games in, and we have to fake a whole hell of a lot of tiebreakers to make a set of standings that even remotely makes sense, but that's what happens when half of the league has no games played and 2 more split their home and home (with even goal differential). sshablak has the early lead, and (I think I'll be saying this an awful lot) RPI Standings Board is bringing up the rear. So here are your basically meaningless initial standings:
            Code:
            Rk Post#           Contestant        ρ
             1    48             sshablak   0.5734
             2    23          Mike Hutter   0.5385
             3    60             TchrBill   0.5315
             4     3        Mr. Last Year   0.4895
                  46        goldenbriggsy   0.4895
             6    16                BigAl   0.4825
             7     3            The Media   0.4615
                   2                 TBRW   0.4615
                  18              bothman   0.4615
            10    40             Dutchman   0.4545
            11    33              Rainman   0.4196
            12    53                johnk   0.3986
            13    30      Section5forLife   0.3846
                  52              kdiff77   0.3846
            15    32               cudmud   0.3776
                  59      TheValleyRaider   0.3776
            17     3          The Coaches   0.3636
                   5               Kepler   0.3636
                  22         techtodenver   0.3636
                  41              LTsatch   0.3636
                  54            BIG Green   0.3636
                  61              JennyRN   0.3636
            23     9          IsThereADog   0.3601
            24    17        ecachawkeyfan   0.3566
                  63        TheFanAverage   0.3566
            26    20            Muskieman   0.3497
                  42           FireKnight   0.3497
                  56     hockeyplayer1015   0.3497
            29    61            DrDemento   0.3427
            30    47           GoldenBear   0.3357
            31    21           alslammerz   0.3252
            32    28                 UFan   0.3077
            33    10           slumulva88   0.3007
            34    44           QUAlum2004   0.2867
            35    34             Saints#1   0.2727
                  57                 1988   0.2727
            37    49           ColSkate65   0.2587
            38     8                miker   0.2308
            39    14           Go Puckman   0.2098
            40    31                 Turk   0.1818
                  39              drshoen   0.1818
            42    62             jmhusker   0.1469
            43    58            red133883   0.1399
            44    11             lugnut92   0.0909
            45    26           FlagDUDE08   0.0699
                  50              Rjm7272   0.0699
            47    15           Ralph Baer  -0.0140
            48     3    The Random Number  -0.5315
            49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  -0.7413
            Okay, so I mentioned arbitrary tiebreakers, and here they are. If we extend past those tiebreakers provided by the ECAC, I'll basically try and apply the same thought process to teams' overall records. So right now, I'm just comparing win percentages and games played. That doesn't even fly for Brown and Yale, so I ranked them by shot differential. None of this matters, no one is going to care what tiebreakers I used 127 games from now.

            Fun fact: Any time the scores here are negative, it means the prediction would be more accurate if it were reversed. So the RPI Standings Board would be #1 if it were literally backwards. But again, none of this matters, we're five games in.

            Finally, I want to ask if people prefer the [code] tags I use for the formatted table or if they like the old [pre] tags better? [code] is smaller and more compact, but you end up having to scroll to the bottom. Does anyone care?
            RPI Pep Band
            GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
            🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

            2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
            2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
            2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

              I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.
              sigpic

              Let's Go 'Tute!

              Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

              2012 Poser Of The Year

              Comment


              • #67
                Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.
                But you keep a positive outlook!!
                Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                  Whatever Lug is doing, and I have no understanding of the math involved, it must be correct since Jenny is, as usual, about 10-20 slots above me.
                  Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                    Originally posted by DrDemento View Post
                    Whatever Lug is doing, and I have no understanding of the math involved, it must be correct since Jenny is, as usual, about 10-20 slots above me.
                    It's actually pretty simple. The rankings this year will be identical to if I listed the scores the old way, but just scaled slightly differently. If you were to divide the old scores by 286 (i.e., multiply by 6/(n(n2-1)) ) and subtract the result from 1, you get the new scores. It's all just a way to limit the scores to a much smaller range.
                    Last edited by lugnut92; 10-30-2017, 03:17 PM. Reason: Typo
                    RPI Pep Band
                    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                    2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                      Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                      It's actually pretty simple. The rankings this year will be identical to if I listed the scores the old way, but just scaled slightly differently. If you were to divide the old scores by 236 (i.e., multiply by 6/(n(n2-1)) ) and subtract the result from 1, you get the new scores. It's all just a way to limit the scores to a much smaller range.
                      Is there something wrong with the formula, or am I confused? I think you said that three of the entrants aren't counted. I.e., n = 46. That doesn't give 1/236, but rather 1/16215.
                      sigpic

                      Let's Go 'Tute!

                      Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                      2012 Poser Of The Year

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                        Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                        Is there something wrong with the formula, or am I confused? I think you said that three of the entrants aren't counted. I.e., n = 46. That doesn't give 1/236, but rather 1/16215.
                        Oh sorry, the n is the number of ranks being compared (i.e., 12). I suppose reusing variables isn't very good practice.

                        Also, it should be 286, not 236. That was a mistake on my part.
                        Last edited by lugnut92; 10-30-2017, 03:19 PM.
                        RPI Pep Band
                        GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                        🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                        2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                        2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                        2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                          Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                          Oh sorry, the n is the number of ranks being compared (i.e., 12). I suppose reusing variables isn't very good practice.

                          Also, it should be 286, not 236. That was a mistake on my part.
                          Thank you again for doing this; it's great!
                          Cornell University
                          National Champion 1967, 1970
                          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                            Originally posted by lugnut92 View Post
                            Finally, I want to ask if people prefer the [code] tags I use for the formatted table or if they like the old [pre] tags better? [code] is smaller and more compact, but you end up having to scroll to the bottom. Does anyone care?
                            I like the code tags better than the pre tags, personally.

                            I use them myself and wish there was a way of overwriting the title (code or pre) with custom text (e.g., a caption). Is there a way to do that?
                            Cornell University
                            National Champion 1967, 1970
                            ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                            Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                              I like the code tags better than the pre tags, personally.

                              I use them myself and wish there was a way of overwriting the title (code or pre) with custom text (e.g., a caption). Is there a way to do that?
                              I don't think so. I've always wanted to do it.

                              [code="This doesn't work"]
                              Nope
                              [/code]


                              Nope
                              RPI Pep Band
                              GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
                              🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

                              2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click – Champion
                              2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
                              2014-15, 2018-19 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

                                Thanks for taking over the contest this year. I just did not have the time or energy to do this again (it is tough getting old). Good luck to all the prognosticators and may the luckiest one win .
                                Fan of CLARKSON: 2014, 2017 & 2018 NC$$ WOMEN'S DIV 1 HOCKEY NATIONAL CHAMPIONS *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********
                                And of 3 Patty Kaz recepients: Jamie Lee Rattray, Loren Gabel and Elizabeth Giguere
                                WHOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOOOO
                                If Union Can Do It So Can CCT (One of These Years) *******https://fanforum.uscho.com/core/images/smilies/smile.gi*********

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X