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Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

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  • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

    Great thread, Todd, I think you could be a consultant next year. Maybe even for the league itself so you can prevent on-air snafus like the one at NESN yesterday. I do have to wonder how much of that was TC and how much was an intern/flunky trying to get on his good side and handing him a note that indicated UHN had secured home ice. Although I have to say, if Umile thought all he needed yesterday was a tie to wrap up home ice, that was an epic fail on his part.

    Comment


    • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

      Originally posted by Todd View Post
      You OK now, Monty?



      Congrats. Long time coming. At least the French Olympic team didn't get in the way.
      LOL. Yeah, the second half that year was a serious downer but this is pretty cool. Monty's probably just fine, but may be mistaken for the Cheshire Cat for a day or three.....
      Gary

      www.umlhockey.com
      Unofficial Home of Lowell Hockey

      182nd member to 2,000 posts
      "It's like putting lipstick on a pig." Chris MacKenzie says, speaking of the fresh paint on the visiting locker room at Alfond.
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      • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

        Todd,

        WCHA fan here, but I always love your thread. A few comments on the Bu situation. Using Whelan's DIY calculator,
        1) If BU wins the series in 3, MC falls to .4991 without considering other results. That's good enough for me to say that it won't change unless there is some very special circumstance somewhere else.
        2) You are correct in that that result for MC causes BU to lose some compares. All would not be lost, however.
        3)One simple way for that to come back is if Dartmouth would defeat Union next weekend. That really gains BU 2, because they would re-win the Union compare, so it goes both ways. +1 for BU, -1 for Union, and that puts BU at #16. Of course, that's still "bubble"-"ish", so
        4)Other possibilities to help BU in that situation are NoDame or UAF (who might play each other) or Wisconsin, all of which can flip without adversely affecting other things down the road.

        Comment


        • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

          Originally posted by Todd View Post
          People make similar comments every year, and their source usually boils down to gut instinct and not math.
          OK - I used the wrong word ("know"). But my point remains...the PWR distracts us from what we should be thinking about. Basically, if we just win we don't have to worry about the PWR and THAT was my point. I'm just trying to get people to stop focusing (I guess "depending on" is a better term) on something over which we have no control and concentrate on the NEXT GAME. It's not like we have to win 10 in a row...now we're down to crunch time and the task it laid out for us.

          1) Win two out of three to get to the Garden
          2) Win the semi-final game (and assuming it's against BC that should help us)

          I just think (and this extends to the players) that, given the nature of this team, if they think there's a chance that they have something to "fall back on," it hurts their focus. It's a qualitative argument, not a quantitative one. I get it. I was just making a point and obviously I "offended" the people who actually crunched the numbers, so I'm sorry.

          The thing is, these things like that ridiculous Bracketology Blog (or whatever it is) that starts weeks ago and says "If the season ended today'", which is an incorrect premise to begin with, because the ONLY time the PWR is even meaningful is AFTER the last game before the tournament has been played, since you are comparing apples and oranges before the complete sample size is known. It makes for fun reading for some, but there are too many variables to try to use it as a prediction tool.

          In any event, what I'm concerned about is how we play - if we show a sense of urgency, focus and commitment. That was my point. I didn't mean to mislead anyone!

          Comment


          • TC sucks!!!
            Originally posted by HockeyMan2000 View Post
            NESN ought to be embarrassed. They've got two guys broadcasting a game, two more back in a studio, others behind the scenes -- and none of them could've told Tom Caron at some point that UNH wasn't "PLAYING FOR A TIE" because they were "GETTING HOME ICE"?

            He only said those things over and over, all during the overtime, and even ended the game with "that's okay for UNH, it's as good as a win!"

            Total failure on every level.

            Comment


            • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

              Originally posted by Priceless View Post
              Great thread, Todd, I think you could be a consultant next year. Maybe even for the league itself so you can prevent on-air snafus like the one at NESN yesterday. I do have to wonder how much of that was TC and how much was an intern/flunky trying to get on his good side and handing him a note that indicated UHN had secured home ice. Although I have to say, if Umile thought all he needed yesterday was a tie to wrap up home ice, that was an epic fail on his part.
              My beef is that even if Dickie thought he had home ice with a tie, why wouldn't he want to separate us from Providence as much as possible in the seeding?
              Hit Somebody!

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              • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                Originally posted by Umileated View Post
                My beef is that even if Dickie thought he had home ice with a tie, why wouldn't he want to separate us from Providence as much as possible in the seeding?
                To be fair, hockey east is not the only thing they are playing for.
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                • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                  Originally posted by Patman View Post
                  To be fair, hockey east is not the only thing they are playing for.
                  Fair. I suppose a betting man would say that we weren't going to win the season title and top seed regardless. The Lowell/Providence match-up would have kept us out regardless, and BC was not likely to lose against VT. Looking past that to Manchester, playing not to lose might have been wise once the late tie and OT set in.
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                  • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                    Originally posted by chickod View Post
                    OK - I used the wrong word ("know"). But my point remains...the PWR distracts us from what we should be thinking about. Basically, if we just win we don't have to worry about the PWR and THAT was my point. I'm just trying to get people to stop focusing (I guess "depending on" is a better term) on something over which we have no control and concentrate on the NEXT GAME. It's not like we have to win 10 in a row...now we're down to crunch time and the task it laid out for us.

                    1) Win two out of three to get to the Garden
                    2) Win the semi-final game (and assuming it's against BC that should help us)

                    I just think (and this extends to the players) that, given the nature of this team, if they think there's a chance that they have something to "fall back on," it hurts their focus. It's a qualitative argument, not a quantitative one. I get it. I was just making a point and obviously I "offended" the people who actually crunched the numbers, so I'm sorry.

                    The thing is, these things like that ridiculous Bracketology Blog (or whatever it is) that starts weeks ago and says "If the season ended today'", which is an incorrect premise to begin with, because the ONLY time the PWR is even meaningful is AFTER the last game before the tournament has been played, since you are comparing apples and oranges before the complete sample size is known. It makes for fun reading for some, but there are too many variables to try to use it as a prediction tool.

                    In any event, what I'm concerned about is how we play - if we show a sense of urgency, focus and commitment. That was my point. I didn't mean to mislead anyone!
                    chickod:

                    Totally agree with what you were trying to say, and the gist of what you said here (except the offended part - we're fine on my end). I just didn't want anyone to be distracted if they didn't get the difference between the math-reality and the sports-psychology-reality.

                    As for the BB, Jayson is just trying to give people a flavor of what would happen, and many people like that to get a sense of what's going on. That said, you are correct that the sample is incomplete, and as we've discussed here, the TUC sample set isn't defined until the games are complete, so we aren't even using the right numbers for comparison until we know what that set is.

                    I guess one way to restate what you said is that "we" (true of any team on the ice, but not any fans that I know of) KNOW that if we win out, we don't have to worry about anything else - and that's all we can control anyway, so we might as well do that. Right with you on that one.
                    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
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                    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
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                    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
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                    • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                      Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                      Todd,

                      WCHA fan here, but I always love your thread. A few comments on the Bu situation. Using Whelan's DIY calculator,
                      1) If BU wins the series in 3, MC falls to .4991 without considering other results. That's good enough for me to say that it won't change unless there is some very special circumstance somewhere else.
                      2) You are correct in that that result for MC causes BU to lose some compares. All would not be lost, however.
                      3)One simple way for that to come back is if Dartmouth would defeat Union next weekend. That really gains BU 2, because they would re-win the Union compare, so it goes both ways. +1 for BU, -1 for Union, and that puts BU at #16. Of course, that's still "bubble"-"ish", so
                      4)Other possibilities to help BU in that situation are NoDame or UAF (who might play each other) or Wisconsin, all of which can flip without adversely affecting other things down the road.
                      Huge thanks.

                      Since the end of the RS, I had: a business trip to NYC, finishing my BerkeleyX Stats homework on the Acela, studying for a professional tech certification, taking the cert exam (passed), presenting at a conference, prepping for the conf the night before with my co-presenter, and I just finished my Stats midterm due at 7:00 am GMT. Oh, and the cert I earned, in combination with a prior cert I have, made me the first person in the world to get a new capstone certification that is just being released. Had to get the cert in and passed before the conf, since that was part of what we were talking about, so... no pressure.

                      That said, haven't been able to look at the PWR numbers going into the weekend yet. So, thanks.

                      Thoughts:

                      Yes, this is a Hockey East thread, but since BU is the only HE team right around the bubble, that's where I'm going to focus until/unless PC gets closer. Maybe next weekend, we can look at the seeds of the upper three if anyone sees anything interesting. The other three in the playoffs are either auto-bid or out.

                      Going forward, my discussion points are not assuming that BU will win. It's just that if they lose, the rest of the discussion is moot, as I expect that they would fall off the bubble. If someone wants to help out and follow that path, please jump in. I've got limited time, so I'll focus on what seems more likely to be of interest.

                      .4991 isn't irrecoverable in concept. I have seen teams pick up or lose 10-ish points after the QFs begin based on how fluid the SOS is at that point.

                      For those unfamiliar with estimating some game's impact on your RPI, not only does your own record count, but the records of the teams you played, and that they played. If you played a team more than once, the affect on your RPI is multiplied by that amount. Teams in your league have a lot of influence, but by the time it matters, only the league's collective OOC schedule/record will really matter - plus the exceptions noted below.

                      The reason for that is that even though you play everyone in your conf multiple times - in this case: HE, and three each - those are a net wash. For conference games you're not in, one of your 3-time-opponents wins, and one loses (or both tie). As far as conference play goes for your opponents - win, lose, or tie - it all comes out to .500. OOC, however, those games can be anywhere from 1.000 to 0.000.

                      Exceptions to the league impact are:

                      Conference foes even out each other's influence unless your team also played a team out of conference - usually in an in-season tourney. For example, BU and BC did not play in the Beanpot this year, but both played NU. If NU were still playing or in the hunt, their RPI would be more strongly raised or lowered by what BU or BC did than, say, UML or UNH (to pick two), because NU played BU/BC four times, while playing the others only three.

                      Playoff games within the conference impact a team's RPI for the same reason.

                      To the point: sure, MC would lose to BU in this scenario, but they will also have played them more often than anyone else in HE (5 or 6 times). That means that if BU goes on to win (or lose) the semi, that raises (or lowers) MC's strength-of-schedule more than if anyone else in HE were to win or lose. The better that BU, and BU's overall RPI do, the better MC's SOS does... five- or six-fold.

                      The same would apply to the final. At that point, BU would of course have the auto-bid, but - in theory - MC jumping up from non-TUC to TUC and adding 5 TUC wins to BU's record right when it actually matters might suddenly win a couple, or a few, extra pairs and move them from a 4 to a 3 seed, or even just move them away from playing a #1 overall to a #3 or #4 overall.

                      Also to be considered is the opponent's-opponents (OOP). For example, on BU's OOC schedule, they played Harvard and North Dakota twice this year. The results of those squads would impact Merrimack's numbers more than, say SLU, whom BU played just once. Of course, it does not help that Harvard (who also played MC in the RS) lost in three to Dartmouth last weekend, as they are now done.

                      Oddly though, since Dartmouth played Harvard three extra times and BU played Harvard twice, Dartmouth's ongoing success helps BU by slightly elevating their RPI - but at the same time, BU would like to get the pair back from DC that was lost when Dartmouth beat Harvard in that 3rd game, raising their RPI and dropping BU's. The RPI between the two is actually close enough that it could come down to SOS, even if both had the same results from here out. BU is playing MC who has a lower RPI than Union, Dartmouth's playmate this weekend, but BU could hope to be playing one (or two) of the top three in HE at the Garden while Dartmouth plays not-QU and maybe not-Yale.

                      Speaking of Union, they were a direct OOC opponent of MC's this year - twice. So while Dartmouth would be marginally affecting with their outcome, Union has more direct effect. Since you posted, #3 has already happened where BU has taken the Union pair. The irony is that Union winning might knock Dartmouth down, but then MC would drop below TUC by BU winning, which would give Union the BU pair, making it a pair-wash - except Union would then have the H2H PWR tb at the 16 spot on the bubble. Then again, two Union wins might pull MC closer to being a TUC again and BU taking that pair back. Maybe best for BU - as far as that series is concerned - is to sweep MC and for DC to beat Union in three - perhaps keeping Union from taking the pair, while dinging DC's RPI enough for BU to grab that as well.

                      Also of note, as referenced last weekend, BU had a chance to take the AK pair - which they currently lose - even if MC dropped off - if AK lost some more TUCs and/or if LSSU, who tagged a 1-3 on AK could bubble up over .5000. Well, on Sunday, the CCHA was not very kind. AK got taken out in three, but by non-TUC MSU, so that doesn't help BU. Also LSSU lost in three to BGSU, so that possible 1-3 addition to AK's TUC record isn't going anywhere.

                      In the fourth Sunday game (Harvard's previously mentioned loss to Dartmouth being the other), Alaska-Anchorage (a MC foe) lost to Denver (a BU foe). The difference there is that that was the end of the RS for the WCHA and AA gets to play again this weekend. Also falling in the ECAC playoffs last weekend, MC foes Colgate and Princeton. In the AHA, MC foe Army got taken out by Mercyhurst, but UConn lives on to fight Robt Morris for two.

                      In addition to the Union pair already flipping for BU, the Notre Dame pair has flipped as well. I don't see how BU takes back the AK pair at this point unless MC revisits TUC after losing two to BU. Wisco is doable if the Badgers lose and DC is possible, but - as noted above - getting DC without also flipping Union (at least after this weekend) could be threading the eye of a needle.

                      There are some other possibilities, however remote, like UVM bubbling up to a TUC and adding a 2-1-0 record to BU. More likely, what it comes down to is that a lot of the teams that could have helped MC stay up as a TUC got taken out last weekend, including MC themselves in their RS finale. Of the teams that are left, BU's own best helper with MC's RPI may very well be themselves.
                      Last edited by Todd; 03-15-2013, 02:27 AM.
                      The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
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                      brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
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                      Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
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                      • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                        TC did acknowledge the home ice clinch snafu today during the UNH-PC game. He then mentioned that Our Fair Dickie admitted to also believing that 1 point would clinch home ice for us. Half the time it's said that they ignore the numbers and go for the win, which I'm fine with. But who else is annoyed that someone apparently did look at the numbers, but didn't actually investigate them?
                        Hit Somebody!

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                        • Originally posted by Umileated View Post
                          TC did acknowledge the home ice clinch snafu today during the UNH-PC game. He then mentioned that Our Fair Dickie admitted to also believing that 1 point would clinch home ice for us. Half the time it's said that they ignore the numbers and go for the win, which I'm fine with. But who else is annoyed that someone apparently did look at the numbers, but didn't actually investigate them?
                          That is embarrassing
                          Yes I am the former member known as Zlax45

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                          • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                            Todd. Congrats on your new (of the new) cert! I don't have any myself but I know how much effort and braincells can go into them. Hope the conference went well also.

                            If you're looking for something to cogitate, may I suggest 'What keeps Lowell in Manchester?' Actually, I think there's so much involved it's not feasible but it's making my brain hurt and you seem to find it fun so figured I'd ask.
                            Gary

                            www.umlhockey.com
                            Unofficial Home of Lowell Hockey

                            182nd member to 2,000 posts
                            "It's like putting lipstick on a pig." Chris MacKenzie says, speaking of the fresh paint on the visiting locker room at Alfond.
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                            • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                              Originally posted by Go-UML View Post
                              Todd. Congrats on your new (of the new) cert! I don't have any myself but I know how much effort and braincells can go into them. Hope the conference went well also.

                              If you're looking for something to cogitate, may I suggest 'What keeps Lowell in Manchester?' Actually, I think there's so much involved it's not feasible but it's making my brain hurt and you seem to find it fun so figured I'd ask.
                              UNH should end up a 2 or 3, which means that UML would need to be a 1 or 4 to end up in Manchester unless HE had five or more teams (I know, but see below). I can't get UML lower than 8th (and that's hard), so to be in Manchester, they're really hoping for a 1 seed.

                              In that case, they'd clearly get Manchester as UNH would be there as host and BC could draw equally well in either Providence or NH, but UML would obviously get better turnout up north. More importantly, HE would only get one 1-seed (at best) and someone has to be in NH. If UML is a 1, there's no one else with a shot at a #1 that would prefer NH, and UML would be a no-brainer.

                              So...

                              UML has a number of routes to the #3 or #4 overall spot. It seems that QU and MN will be #1 and #2 even if they lose their next games.

                              If Miami wins the CCHA, they should be #3, but if they lose, UML could move up to #3 with a HE title. Being #3 would give them enough buffer (even winning a 3-way RR with Miami and ECAC-titlist Yale) to protect them from some of the vulnerabilities at #4.

                              At #4 behind Miami, they would need to keep an eye on Yale and - depending on the configuration - some of the WCHA teams and whether Niagara does or does not win AHA (not for fear of chipping in an auto-bid, but for Niagara winning/not-winning pairs at the top).

                              If UML were to lose the HE final to BU (BC would knock UML down by winning) they could still be #4, as long as MN wins the WCHA (so that others don't) and Niagara doesn't win AHA (in which case, they'd pass UML - that's right, the AHA winner could be a 1-seed, instead of the reward for a 1-seed).

                              ---
                              Obviously either PC or BU winning the HE title would put them in. Not surprisingly, both teams are so close on the bubble that the two wins themselves would be enough to put them in, so the auto-bid is nice, but not needed.

                              A PC win would probably put PC around 14th.

                              ---
                              So here's an unexpected twist:

                              Even though I can't get MC to pop back up and give BU 5 TUC wins (maybe if QFs had gone to 3 games) - that's not the unexpected part - it looks as though BU has a reasonable chance at making the tourney just by winning the HE semis. Some keys would be: Notre Dame losing to OSU, Wisco not going deep, NoDak doing well to boost BU's SOS for their RPI, among others.

                              BU could get as high as a 13 by taking the title, needing the 2nd TUC win to get past Wisco and - along with MI dropping out of TUC - AK. But they could also be as high as 14th if they lose the title game to UML.

                              Here's the kicker: It's possible for BU to lose the final to PC and have both teams make the tourney. Since there are configurations where BU would be 14th or 15th when losing to UML, losing the pair - and some RPI points due to SOS diff between UML and PC - to PC still leaves some room for BU to be in. Since BU could end up with the pairs against Notre Dame and RPI, those could give them the tb advantage in 2- and 3-way breaks at the bubble.

                              In fact, PC and BU could even be 14th and 15th. Here's one way how:

                              Atlantic Hockey
                              Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Connecticut
                              Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
                              Championship game: Niagara defeats Mercyhurst
                              CCHA
                              Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Notre Dame
                              Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
                              Championship game: Miami defeats Ohio State
                              ECAC
                              Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union
                              Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
                              Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale
                              Consolation game: Brown defeats Union
                              Hockey East
                              Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College
                              Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
                              Championship game: Providence defeats Boston University
                              WCHA
                              Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
                              Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
                              Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats Minnesota
                              Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
                              Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State

                              ---
                              Oh, and thanks. The conference went well.

                              Last summer, I was asked to be on the board of a local tech group. During the conf, a preliminary offer was extended for me to join the board of a well-known regional tech group - with perhaps more to go with that. Add in the reception to the information we prepped, the presentation given, and the new cert awarded... a pretty good day overall.
                              The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                              cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                              smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                              MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                              Scarlet - What he said.
                              brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                              TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                              Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                              Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                              Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                              David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                              Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

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                              • Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                                In that scenario used where both PC and BU make it, the bad news for both BC and UML is that they could both be going west, unless the NCAA decided to invoke the 5-team rule.

                                The reason for that is that in this setup, BC and UML are 2s (6 and 7t/8), but UNH is a 3 (9t/9). Yale (7t/7) is also a 2 and would be a better draw in RI than in NH - but there is an interesting choice the committee could make to take advantage of the 8-9 match-up and the 5 HE teams to get UML into Manchester as a 2.

                                In case you're wondering, Brown - not QU, Yale, or PC - is the host for the Providence regional. Still, the top 4 are likely to go: QU->RI, MN->GR, Miami -> OH, and NoDak -> NH because that's what's left. The #5 seed should play the #4 in NH, and that's Niagara. That would put #6 BC w/ #3 Miami in Toledo (knowing that, and given their history, would Miami throw the title game?), #7 Yale w/ #2 MN in Mich and #8 UML w/ #1 QU in RI.

                                The list as a whole is:
                                QU
                                MN
                                Miami
                                NoDak

                                Niagara
                                BC
                                Yale (pair over UML)
                                UML

                                UNH (pair over SCSU)
                                SCSU
                                Mankato
                                Denver

                                Western
                                PC
                                BU (pairs over Notre Dame and RPI)
                                RPI (pair over Notre Dame)

                                Notre Dame 15t with high RPI, but out on clear pair differential. (RPI is only tb for RR tie)

                                Other than having to swap UNH into NH as host, if we started by sticking with finishing up the 1-8-9-16, 2-7-10-15, 3-6-11-14, 4-5-12-13, we'd get:

                                Providence:
                                QU v RPI
                                UML v UNH*

                                Grand Rapids:
                                MN v BU
                                Yale v SCSU

                                Toledo:
                                Miami v PC
                                BC v Mankato

                                Manchester:
                                NoDak v Western
                                Niagara v Denver

                                Now, if not for the host rule, Manchester would be - incredibly, with 5 HE teams in the tournament - a ghost town, so there'd definitely be some shuffling.

                                Since there are 5 teams from HE, then the following applies, if they choose to use it:
                                • Conference matchups in first round are avoided, unless five or more teams from one conference are selected, then the integrity of the bracket will be preserved.

                                ----
                                What they could do, instead of just moving UNH to Manchester, is pick up the whole UML-UNH game and swap it in. It would preserve the integrity of the 8-9 matchup and boost attendance - plus guarantee one of the two in the final, to boot.

                                The problem now is that you swap two non-New-England teams into RI, leaving only one "local", in a year where seven New England teams made the tourney. Better yet, two eastern CTs and a RI - all in different bands - made it.

                                They could cycle instead of swap, meaning that they move the pair of UML-UNH into NH, and then move all the "middle" (2v3) games up a notch, that would put Yale into Providence. Even though it would take SCSU out of GR, it would replace them with Mankato when BC-Mank rolls in. Niagara-Denver would go to Toledo, which could work for Niagara fans.

                                That's what I think they would do. It would keep the integrity of the entire 2v3 setup. It would also be pretty good for the theoretical 1v2 finals. Considering that there was a tie for 7, 1 v 7 doesn't harm the overall #1. In fact Yale has a lower RPI than UML - in theory making them a weaker team - but won the H2H pair anyway. 2v6 and 3v5 aren't huge swings. 4v8 seems like a huge gain for the 4-seed, but they'd have to play the winner of two local favorites in the 8-9 game, so maybe not as good as it first looked.

                                The alternative would be to move just UNH in a swap with Denver, but if you look at what that leaves, the local fans would be horrified to see a Niagara-UNH first round pairing.

                                ----
                                Another set of considerations is that with 4-seeds PC and BU out west and BC in either location, you run the risk of an all-HE final in the Great Lakes. Perhaps the only thing that is going to horrify GLI fans more than having to hear about the Beanpot non-stop in February is to have a BC-BU regional final arrive on their doorstep. Miami sure as hell isn't going to be happy about not one, but two HE teams in their back yard either.

                                One easy fix is to swap Western with BU since Toledo has a local (Miami), but Grand Rapids (and its attendance) would be starving for the only MI school in the tourney. That would also create a rematch of the pair that BU and NoDak played at the Taj MaHockey (tm) in November.

                                In that case, Manchester could have gone from no HE schools to three (if the UML-UNH game comes as a whole), so maybe if they can see that they're moving BU, they leave UML behind in RI... but having UML in Manchester and Yale in RI is pretty sweet. Even if UNH sells out the building, the arena can only sell a ticket once - but the atmosphere is better if everyone shows up and is into it.

                                It would also be cool to swap RPI and PC, but that does a disservice to the overall #1 by diminishing what was a clear home ice advantage and instead turning them into the visitors. Oh!... duh... but RPI and QU are both ECAC. Done and done.

                                So, that leaves us with:

                                Providence:
                                QU v PC
                                Yale v SCSU

                                Grand Rapids:
                                MN v Western
                                BC v Mankato

                                Toledo:
                                Miami v RPI
                                Niagara v Denver

                                Manchester:
                                NoDak v BU
                                UML v UNH

                                As a fan, I'm not psyched to see 3 HE teams in Manchester (and BU/NoDak a third time this season), but the NCAA has done similar things before.

                                Miami and two NY teams (one east, one west) in Toledo is OK. It's a long drive from RPI, but I think it's a pretty straight shot. Denver is flying somewhere regardless, so it might as well be Toledo.

                                Western is in GR along with two MN teams. BC has had enough success in the last decade that anyone buying tickets to a Regional should also recognize the name as a draw.

                                Providence somehow ended up with all three local-ish teams, which should make for a raucous crowd.

                                ---
                                Putting the BU-fan cap on, I'd hate to see BU lose the HE final, of course, esp. since Parker is retiring, but if this was going to be the outcome, at least it could be a consolation prize.

                                As a college-hockey fan, and one from New England... and one that follows Hockey East, this would be pretty cool.
                                Last edited by Todd; 03-19-2013, 01:19 AM.
                                The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                                cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                                smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                                MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                                Scarlet - What he said.
                                brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                                TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                                Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                                Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                                Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                                David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                                Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

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