Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

[J.D.]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Although I suppose your reasoning for Maine pulling the goalie is that no matter what they couldn't finish lower than 8th but could finish 7th only if they beat UNH again. So I take it back. I could understand Maine pulling the goalie since they don't have to be worry about the PWR. But I maintain that UNH should not have pulled the goalie. Now, let's say Maine pulls the goalie and UNH scores...could be some unhappy coaches in HE! That would have been something.

[J.D.]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

check again...PC listed 4th

[Todd]

Epic fail on NESN's part proclaiming UNH had clinched home ice. Maybe Umile was thinking the same thing? Don't agree that either/both team(s) should have pulled the goalie though.

Either:
A) NESN, like other many other media outlets is too lazy/incompetent to underdstand how tbs work,
B) Umile thought the same thing,
C) media outlets/teams/HE should have me on staff to clarify
D) A, B, and they should read/partcipate here,
E) the league changed their rules again.

[Todd]

From March 4th:

UNH does not clinch Home Ice with a tie.

While MC cannot reach 32, BC and UML can certainly pass it.

UNH wins the H2H w/ BU, true. But in a 3-way tie at 32 w/ BU/UNH/PC, the RRRs break out this way:

RRRs	BU	UNH	PC	Total
BU:		1-2-0	2-0-1	3-2-1
UNH:	2-1-0		0-2-1	2-3-1
PC:	0-2-1	2-0-1		2-2-2

That would elevate BU to the 3 seed. The UNH/PC H2H would go to PC, who would get 4th. UNH gets 5th.

. Top down method (current) or Bottom up (old) gives same result: BU / PC / UNH.

Fail NESN.

[Todd]

check again...PC listed 4th

Maybe had it listed in alpha order by default: Boston, New, Prov...
Then switched to seed order.

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

FWIW, BU is kind of screwed for NCAA TUCs now.

Again, as I've said about four times now...we KNOW the only way we're going is to get to the Hockey East Championship game. Period. The same cr*p happened last year. Everyone was so worried about the PWR that they forgot about just winning games. Hate to say "I told you so" (well, no I don't ), but these players should worry less about checking the numbers on their iPads and just concentrate on winning games. It's not a ludicrous thought for BU to win 2-3 from Merrimack and at least have a good shot to win the following Friday. It's not like the league is great this year and/or has a totally dominant team.

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Epic fail on NESN's part proclaiming UNH had clinched home ice. Maybe Umile was thinking the same thing? Don't agree that either/both team(s) should have pulled the goalie though.

Gee...that's shocking. We all know TC is a genius...

[HockeyMan2000]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

NESN ought to be embarrassed. They've got two guys broadcasting a game, two more back in a studio, others behind the scenes -- and none of them could've told Tom Caron at some point that UNH wasn't "PLAYING FOR A TIE" because they were "GETTING HOME ICE"?

He only said those things over and over, all during the overtime, and even ended the game with "that's okay for UNH, it's as good as a win!"

Total failure on every level.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Again, as I've said about four times now...we KNOW the only way we're going is to get to the Hockey East Championship game. Period. The same cr*p happened last year. Everyone was so worried about the PWR that they forgot about just winning games. Hate to say "I told you so" (well, no I don't ), but these players should worry less about checking the numbers on their iPads and just concentrate on winning games. It's not a ludicrous thought for BU to win 2-3 from Merrimack and at least have a good shot to win the following Friday. It's not like the league is great this year and/or has a totally dominant team.

Except that the math doesn't back you up - other than the league not having one dominant team.

People make similar comments every year, and their source usually boils down to gut instinct and not math. Roughly: "It feels like we have to do better, but I don't want to say that we have to win the auto-bid." Fortunately, in NCAA Ice Hockey, the tourney invitations are based on predictable criteria, so it's all about the math.

FWIW, a lot of the same people have been saying recently that BU wasn't getting Home Ice. Funny, that.

----
"Again, as I've said about four times now...we KNOW the only way we're going is to get to the Hockey East Championship game. Period."

I'm not sure over how long a period you've spaced out those "four times" but: No. No. No. No. Now we match.

This is a thread "by the numbers". When people say they "KNOW" something here it means "to a mathematical certainty", not "I feel very strongly".

What we "KNOW" (based in fact) is:

Prior to being seeded against MC, there were numerous ways that BU could have been in the NCAAs without being in the title game, let alone winning it. They just needed to be playing anyone else in the top six (AKA TUCs that would also improve their RPI greatly if they won) except MC - or have MC win another game, like say tonight against UMA, in order to leave enough of a buffer so that BU could beat them and MC could stay a TUC.

If you were saying prior to tonight that we KNOW that BU has to make the HE final to make the NCAAs, you were demonstrably, mathematically wrong.


Now that MC has drawn so close to .5000, BU will be slitting their own throats in one of the only PWR criteria that they can still change to move multiple pairs. The math in my head says they're in a world of hurt without A) winning the auto-bid or B) enough teams move back and forth across the TUC border that the Minuteman Militia starts patrolling the stats pages (and UMA does have some time on their hands...).

If you're saying now that we KNOW that all that BU has to do is play in the HE final game, you are also wrong. If everything in the world broke their way, there might be some slim chance that could squeeze them in - but we are far from KNOWing that that is BU's goal.

Here's why:

BU's current status on the bubble (15-ish) includes a 3-0-0 TUC record w/ MC.

MC's RPI is ~.5019. I haven't calculated all the numbers, but my experienced estimate is that MC will easily lose more than .0020 points by losing 2 to BU, even if it's 2 of 3. That's why I haven't bothered to calculate. I don't think it's close. I could be totally misestimating and if anyone wants to do the actual numbers to either verify or prove me wrong, please feel free.

If my rough math is right, that means that - best case for BU - not only would BU's two newly minted wins against MC not count as TUCs, but they will also lose the prior three. In fact, after the QFs, it is arguable that BU's best TUC outcome is to LOSE 2 of 3 to MC, which lets them keep a 4-2-0 vs. MC. However, with 3-0-0 already baked in, that just adds a 1-2-0 record, which would only cause them to lose more pairs.

Now obviously, that's not their optimal playoff hope, because no one would end their season early and hope to back in based on other people losing when they could control their own fate. Like you say: "winning games"... Plus, that lose-2-of-3 scenario doesn't really help them.

So:

If they get past MC, they now would have to make up a 3-0-0 record just to get back to where they are right now in TUC. Of course, with only two games, at best, left to win. The best they could do would be to be one game worse in TUC than they are now, by going 2-0-0, but at that point, they would have won the auto-bid and the PWR impact would just be trying to improve their NCAA seeding.

If BU drops three TUC wins and everything else stayed constant, they would drop the pairs to: Mankato, Union, Providence. They would also lose TUC to some other teams where it wouldn't cost them the pair, and some where they are winning the pair but they already lose TUC, so losing TUC by more doesn't matter. The PC pair could be re-winnable based on COP or H2H or RPI or combos of those, so it's really the dropping of two pairs that would hurt.

That's better than I expected, but here's the problem: two pairs is still too much. BU is 15th with 16 pairs. If they dropped only down two to 14 pairs - that's even giving them the benefit of the doubt on taking PC's pair back - they would still be at 17, under the bubble, and looking up at an NCAA bid like so many zoo animals looking up through the ocean at Pi and Richard Parker (no relation to Jack).

That puts BU in the position of not only playing to win their own games, but scoreboard watching... like watching the CCHA QF rubber matches Sunday, hoping that Lake State can win to move on and rise above .5000 - to add a 1-3-0 record to Alaska's TUC - while also hoping that AK can move on itself, solely so that it can (hopefully) lose to a TUC in the next round, instead of non-TUC MSU now. That kind of shuffling might give BU the Alaska pair.


If I'm wrong about MC dropping off the bottom, then that's another story - but then BU may not even need to make the final, since they're already above the bubble and would add two more wins. If they sweep MC and lose the semi, that still adds 2-1-0. If they need to lose one to MC to make the other 5 count, then they'll probably need to win the semi just so they're not .500 v TUCs (2-1 QFs + lost semi) for the HE tourney.

If I'm not wrong, then just making it to the final won't help. BU would drop a 3-0-0 for dropping MC off the TUC cliff and add a 1-1-0 at the Garden (making it to the HE Final, but not winning it). That also assumes that both opponents at the garden would be TUCs.


I could also be wrong about how much volatility is just around the corner, lurking in the PWR grid, because I have barely begun looking at that, with so much to resolve in HE right up through tonight. I have seen an unlikely combination of events take BU out, so why couldn't it put them in? Well, in theory, it could. Some time. I don't know if this year is possibly one of those times. In any event, it wouldn't be something with enough certainty that we would KNOW it at this point.

[UNH09]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

I am so glad that Todd understands the math that Dick Umile does not. So much for that UNH education.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Gee...that's shocking. We all know TC is a genius...

NESN ought to be embarrassed. They've got two guys broadcasting a game, two more back in a studio, others behind the scenes -- and none of them could've told Tom Caron at some point that UNH wasn't "PLAYING FOR A TIE" because they were "GETTING HOME ICE"?

He only said those things over and over, all during the overtime, and even ended the game with "that's okay for UNH, it's as good as a win!"

Total failure on every level.

Yeah.

It was Tom Caron specifically that was making factually wrong and/or impossible statements during the Beanpot - and the same ones year after year - that caused me to eventually contact NESN to get him to cut it out. You could tell that he was pulling out his unverified Beanpot factoid file every year before the broadcasts.

He's not only stupid. He's unprofessional and bad at his job. There's more to being a sports broadcaster than being able to speak without biting your tongue off while in front of a mic or on camera.

At least when Craig Janney says things that are indefensibly stupid, he gets a slight pass because his role is to be the meat sack that used to play the game. Caron is supposed to be the other guy. The one smart enough to lead the broadcast and keep the meat sack from wandering out into traffic.

When Janney says things off the cuff like, "Things are getting a little chippy because these teams aren't used to facing the same team two nights in a row" during a game at Alfond, you just have to facepalm, shake your head, and think to yourself "Idiot... He used to play in this league. We usually play the same team two nights in a row..."

But when Caron misstates some stat that he has clearly written down somewhere, just saving that nugget to bring up - and then it's wrong? That's unprofessional. How are you not prepping properly before going on the air?

Forget the two guys in the studio and the other guy on the air with you. You are about to broadcast the last game of the regular season for two teams fighting for playoff spots. How are you not fully informed on every possible outcome? There are only three! You're the only game going on! There is no moving target.

Hell, I posted the exact numbers that were relevant to this situation a week ago (see the March 4th post and repost) and it's not my forking job to talk about it on live television.

You know that you're making a comment at the end of the game - and probably throughout. Does Caron not realize that he has a history of making these kinds of mistakes? Or does he have Colbert-sized wheelbarrows to haul around his massive, um, "hubris" because he thinks he knows what the numbers are on his own? We all know that past performance is not an indicator of future returns, but when there's a pattern of screw-ups, it's a pretty good indicator that you should have someone check your work.

I know the league office has been confused in the past, but I'm pretty sure all it would have taken is a call from some lackey or intern at NESN to HE to figure out what happens if UNH wins, if Maine wins, if it's a tie. Done and done.

If he got the numbers that he used from the league office, then that person should be relieved of their duties and I'll be writing this next year in my role as consultant to Hockey East. Un-effing-excusable.

Anyway, before this rant gets any longer - and before I copy it and send it off to NESN and/or HE HQ:

Yes.

Caron.

"Genius."

NESN

Fail.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

I am so glad that Todd understands the math that Dick Umile does not. So much for that UNH education.

All they have to do is ask.

Or read.

I'm seriously thinking about contacting press outlets next year as a consultant, because apparently we're the only ones who know what the hell is going on.

"Just tell me what your league's rules are and I will tell you what your team's needs are, or who has clinched what in the league."

Hopefully, by next year I will have had time to learn enough R to automate the process.

[The Zlax45]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Thanks Todd for this thread during the final weeks of the season

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

*sigh*

You OK now, Monty?



Congrats. Long time coming. At least the French Olympic team didn't get in the way.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

For those of you following along with the BU 3-goal weirdness:
...
Chinese water torture is also a "thing", right?

BU led NU 4-1 tonight before the 4-2 final.

New tally: 13 three-goal leads and 6 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 19 BU games since 12/30/12.

BU's 5-0 final adds to the stack.

New tally: 14 three-goal leads and 6 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 20 BU games since 12/30/12.

Come on... isn't hockey closer than this? Every freaking night BU is scoring, or being scored on, in chunks.

All I know is that Merrimack better be scouting that emerging powerhouse duo of Moscatel and Ronan before showing up on Comm. Ave.