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Thread: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

  1. #1
    RPI '11 Go Red!
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    ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    It's about that time again. There's four weeks left in the season with every team having seven, eight, or nine games remaining.

    So, I'll try and put up a post fairly soon after the conclusion of a day's games. Each post has the current standings (by points%, not pure points), remaining league schedules, and a breakdown of why each team is limited in the way that it is. Eventually, it'll get to the point where the potential tiebreakers are much more interesting than the range itself, so that's what I'll do for the last week or so.

    --- Bye Lock - 30
    --- Home Lock - 25+
    UC 21 - 35 [1-12]
    Cornell 19 - 35 [1-12]
    Colgate 17 - 33 [1-12]
    CCT 15 - 31 [1-12]
    Harvard 16 - 30 [1-12]
    DC 13 - 31 [1-12]
    QU 14 - 30 [1-12]
    Yale 13 - 29 [1-12]
    Brown 12 - 28 [1-12]
    PU 12 - 26 [1-12]
    SLU 9 - 25 [1-12]
    RPI 9 - 25 [1-12]
    --- Bye Eligible - 19+
    --- Home Eligible - 15

    Clarkson holds 4th over Harvard on the basis of the game in hand.

    Dartmouth and Quinnipiac are tied for 6th place. DC beat QU in New Hampshire to start the season, so they hold the tiebreaker.

    St. Lawrence holds the tiebreaker over RPI based on the Pts vs Top 8 criteria.

    Remaining League Schedules:
    Code:
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    |         |  T 1/31  |  F 2/3  |  S 2/4  |  F 2/10  |  S 2/11  |  F 2/17 |  S 2/18 |  F 2/24  |  S 2/25  |
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    | UC      |          | Colgate | Cornell |    @DC   |          |    PU   |    QU   | @Cornell | @Colgate |
    | Cornell |          |   @RPI  |   @UC   |   Brown  |   Yale   |   @CCT  |   @SLU  |     UC   |    RPI   |
    | Colgate |          |   @UC   |   @RPI  |   Yale   |   Brown  |   @SLU  |   @CCT  |    RPI   |    UC    |
    | CCT     |          |  @Brown |  @Yale  |    PU    |    QU    | Cornell | Colgate |    @DC   | @Harvard |
    | Harvard |    DC    |   @QU   |         |    RPI   |          |  @Brown |  @Yale  |    SLU   |    CCT   |
    | DC      | @Harvard |   @PU   |   @QU   |    UC    |    RPI   |  @Yale  |  @Brown |    CCT   |    SLU   |
    | QU      |          | Harvard |    DC   |   @SLU   |   @CCT   |   @RPI  |   @UC   |   Brown  |   Yale   |
    | Yale    |          |   SLU   |   CCT   | @Colgate | @Cornell |    DC   | Harvard |    @PU   |    @QU   |
    | Brown   |          |   CCT   |   SLU   | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard |    DC   |    @QU   |    @PU   |
    | PU      |          |    DC   |         |   @CCT   |   @SLU   |   @UC   |   @RPI  |   Yale   |   Brown  |
    | SLU     |          |  @Yale  |  @Brown |    QU    |    PU    | Colgate | Cornell | @Harvard |    @DC   |
    | RPI     |          | Cornell | Colgate | @Harvard |    @DC   |    QU   |    PU   | @Colgate | @Cornell |
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status kinda sucks.

    Shockingly, every single team can finish in every place from 1st to 12th, inclusive. Is Union likely to drop all the way to 12th? No. Especially since it would require at least a 3-way tie at 21 points. RPI and SLU can still take sole possession of the Cleary Cup at 25 points (and potentially less, I didn't explore it in too much depth).

    Thresholds:
    Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. Currently, I believe it sits at 30 points. Four teams each with 30 and a 5th at 29. I've currently got the Clarkson / Colgate / Cornell / Dartmouth / Union quintet occupying those five places.

    Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. It's an 8-way tie for 4th, with Cornell, Colgate, and Union ahead of the pack and RPI trailing with 17 points. Currently, with the sequence of games that I use to get to this specific tie, SLU wins the tiebreaker with 17 points earned against the other teams.

    Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. I have it at 25 points plus the required tiebreakers. It's another congested six-way tie (Brown / Clarkson / Colgate / Dartmouth / Harvard / Yale) with Dartmouth being left out. It ends up coming down to Colgate / Dartmouth with them splitting the season series and Colgate having 12 wins vs Dartmouth's 10.

    Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. Yale can still finish in 8th place with just two more points. Dartmouth, Brown, and St. Lawrence all finish with 14 points and RPI also finishes with less than 15, meaning that the Elis still get an extra pair of home games.

    Thanks for reading. I hope that this was useful and that it helps shed some light on the playoff race as we head down the road towards Atlantic City.
    Go Red!!

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  2. #2
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Playoffs!!! Are you kiddin' me?!?!? Playoffs?!?!?!? Don't talk about playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Signed,

    St. Lawrence fans.

  3. #3
    The Merchant of Truth
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Quote Originally Posted by TimU View Post
    Playoffs!!! Are you kiddin' me?!?!? Playoffs?!?!?!? Don't talk about playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Signed,

    St. Lawrence fans.
    Thanks a lot for getting the Press Hop Rap stuck in my head... We sittin' here, I'm supposed to be the franchise player, and we in here talkin' 'bout practice...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I'm not happy about it either, but Flag is correct (cue the Twilight Zone music!).
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  4. #4
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    This is pretty fascinating stuff.

    I hope Union doesn't let me down after I re-arranged things to free up 3/10 for a potential quarterfinals game 2 at Messa. Just need a top 4 finish so they get that first round bye. *crosses fingers*

  5. #5
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    I recently put together a spreadsheet calculating the final point total for each team given their current KRACH (assuming the expected point return from a given game is (chance of winning)*(2 points)) and their remaining schedule. I figure this is as good a thread as any to share the resultant "Expected Final Standings". Keep in mind that this doesn't account for home/away games or momentum, so it's in no way perfect.

    Standings
    1. Cornell (30)
    2. Union (29)
    3. Colgate (28)
    4. Harvard (25)
    -----
    5. Quinnipiac (24)
    6. Dartmouth (23)
    7. Clarkson (22)
    8. Yale (19)
    -----
    9. Princeton (19)
    10. Brown (18)
    11. St. Lawrence (15)
    12. RPI (12)

    Note: All point values are rounded to the nearest point. As such, while some teams may appear to be tied, even though this is not the case (i.e., Yale and Princeton appear to be tied at 19, but in actuality, Yale (19.23) is beating Princeton (18.95) by a small margin).
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  6. #6
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Update for the games last night. No change in the standings, but some point totals changed a bit.

    Standings
    1. Cornell (30)
    2. Union (29)
    3. Colgate (28)
    4. Harvard (25)
    -----
    5. Quinnipiac (24)
    6. Dartmouth (22)
    7. Clarkson (22)
    8. Yale (20)
    -----
    9. Princeton (19)
    10. Brown (18)
    11. St. Lawrence (15)
    12. RPI (13)
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    LET'S GO BLUES!!!

  7. #7
    RPI '11 Go Red!
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Oh, hey, look, there was a game last night!

    --- Bye Lock - 29+
    --- Home Lock - 25+
    UC 21 - 35 [1-12]
    Cornell 19 - 35 [1-12]
    Colgate 17 - 33 [1-12]
    CCT 15 - 31 [1-12]
    Harvard 17 - 29 [1-12]
    DC 14 - 30 [1-12]
    QU 14 - 30 [1-12]
    Yale 13 - 29 [1-12]
    Brown 12 - 28 [1-12]
    PU 12 - 26 [1-12]
    SLU 9 - 25 [1-12]
    RPI 9 - 25 [1-12]
    --- Bye Eligible - 19+
    --- Home Eligible - 14+

    Clarkson holds 4th over Harvard on the basis of the games in hand (0.536 win% vs 0.531).

    Dartmouth and Quinnipiac are tied for 6th place. DC beat QU in New Hampshire to start the season, so they hold the tiebreaker.

    Brown is in 10th place by themselves over Princeton based on the Bears' game in hand (0.429 vs 0.400).

    St. Lawrence holds the tiebreaker over RPI based on the Pts vs Top 8 criteria.

    Remaining League Schedules:
    Code:
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    |         |  F 2/3  |  S 2/4  |  F 2/10  |  S 2/11  |  F 2/17 |  S 2/18 |  F 2/24  |  S 2/25  |
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    | UC      | Colgate | Cornell |    @DC   |          |    PU   |    QU   | @Cornell | @Colgate |
    | Cornell |   @RPI  |   @UC   |   Brown  |   Yale   |   @CCT  |   @SLU  |     UC   |    RPI   |
    | Colgate |   @UC   |   @RPI  |   Yale   |   Brown  |   @SLU  |   @CCT  |    RPI   |    UC    |
    | CCT     |  @Brown |  @Yale  |    PU    |    QU    | Cornell | Colgate |    @DC   | @Harvard |
    | Harvard |   @QU   |         |    RPI   |          |  @Brown |  @Yale  |    SLU   |    CCT   |
    | DC      |   @PU   |   @QU   |    UC    |    RPI   |  @Yale  |  @Brown |    CCT   |    SLU   |
    | QU      | Harvard |    DC   |   @SLU   |   @CCT   |   @RPI  |   @UC   |   Brown  |   Yale   |
    | Yale    |   SLU   |   CCT   | @Colgate | @Cornell |    DC   | Harvard |    @PU   |    @QU   |
    | Brown   |   CCT   |   SLU   | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard |    DC   |    @QU   |    @PU   |
    | PU      |    DC   |         |   @CCT   |   @SLU   |   @UC   |   @RPI  |   Yale   |   Brown  |
    | SLU     |  @Yale  |  @Brown |    QU    |    PU    | Colgate | Cornell | @Harvard |    @DC   |
    | RPI     | Cornell | Colgate | @Harvard |    @DC   |    QU   |    PU   | @Colgate | @Cornell |
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status still kinda sucks.

    Remember how I said that it would require at least a 3-way tie for Union to finish in 12th place? Not so much. I was able to put Cornell at 23, the other teams all at 22, and Union by themselves in 12th place with 21.

    I have found similar scenarios that give RPI or SLU sole possession of the Cleary Cup with as little as 23 points. So, have faith, ye Engineer and Saint faithful! You do not need your team to win out to finish in 1st place.

    Thresholds:
    Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slips to 29 with the correct tiebreakers after yesterday's tie. Harvard and Dartmouth win out, with Union, Colgate, and Cornell winning out against the seven remaining teams. Union sweeps Cornell and Colgate and Union split. That leaves Union / Colgate / Cornell tied at 31, Dartmouth at 30, and Harvard at 29.

    Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. Likewise, I still see an 8-way tie at 19 points to be Bye Eligible. This time, I gave all of the wins to Union (33 pts), Cornell (33), and Harvard (29) and left Dartmouth on the low side (17) to get everyone settled at 19. Clarkson and RPI each earned 16 points against everyone else in that bunch with Clarkson winning the head-to-head tiebreaker with the season sweep, by the way.

    Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. I have it at 25 points plus the required tiebreakers. It's at least a five-way tie at 25 points (Brown / Clarkson / Harvard / Quinnipiac / Yale) with Yale being left out of the home-ice scenario.

    Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. With a four-way tie at 8th place, I have Brown / Princeton / SLU / Yale all at 14 points. So, it is possible to play at home in March with just 14 points (and the requisite tiebreakers). By the way, SLU takes 8th place with 8 points head-to-head.

    Thanks for reading. I hope that this was useful and that it helps shed some light on the playoff race as we head down the road towards Atlantic City.
    Go Red!!

    National Champions: 1954, 1985, 201x

    Houston Field House, Cheel Arena, Agganis Arena, Magness Arena, Ritter Arena, Messa Rink, Matthews Arena, Von Braun Center, Lynah Rink, Starr Rink, Appleton Arena, Dwyer Arena, Buffalo State Ice Arena, Kelley Rink (also Verizon Center (DC), Herb Brooks Arena, Fenway Park (Frozen Fenway I), Times Union Center, DCU Center, Blue Cross Arena)

  8. #8
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Updated Expected standings after tonight's games:

    1. Union (31)
    2. Cornell (29)
    3. Colgate (26)
    4. Harvard (26)
    -----
    5. Clarkson (23)
    6. Quinnipiac (22)
    7. Dartmouth (22)
    8. Princeton (19)
    -----
    9. Yale (18)
    10. Brown (17)
    11. St. Lawrence (16)
    12. RPI (14)

    Just a couple of changes from the mid-week version. Union takes first, Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and Dartmouth did a little shuffle, and Princeton and Yale switched places. These standings more closely mirror the actual, current standings except for the transpositions of Harvard-Colgate and Princeton-Yale. Of note for RPI fans, myself included, is that the Engineers' projected final total has increased by 2 points since I first put this together, which is the only real indicator of momentum I can pull from this (and it's not a very good indicator due to small sample sizes).
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    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    LET'S GO BLUES!!!

  9. #9
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    All twelve teams played last night, which helped mix some things up. Princeton will lose their game in hand tonight.

    --- Bye Lock - 29+
    --- Home Lock - 24+
    UC 23 - 35 [1-10]
    Cornell 20 - 34 [1-12]
    Colgate 17 - 31 [1-12]
    CCT 17 - 31 [1-12]
    Harvard 19 - 29 [1-12]
    DC 15 - 29 [1-12]
    QU 14 - 28 [1-12]
    Yale 13 - 27 [1-12]
    PU 13 - 25 [1-12]
    Brown 12 - 26 [1-12]
    SLU 11 - 25 [1-12]
    RPI 10 - 24 [1-12]
    --- Bye Eligible - 19+
    --- Home Eligible - 15

    Colgate and Clarkson are both ahead of Harvard on the basis of their games in hand (0.567 win% vs 0.559).

    Colgate beat the Knights in Hamilton and hold 3rd place.

    Yale is in 8th place by themselves over Princeton based on the Bulldogs' game in hand (0.433 vs 0.406).

    Remaining League Schedules:
    Code:
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    |         |  S 2/4  |  F 2/10  |  S 2/11  |  F 2/17 |  S 2/18 |  F 2/24  |  S 2/25  |
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    | UC      | Cornell |    @DC   |          |    PU   |    QU   | @Cornell | @Colgate |
    | Cornell |   @UC   |   Brown  |   Yale   |   @CCT  |   @SLU  |     UC   |    RPI   |
    | Colgate |   @RPI  |   Yale   |   Brown  |   @SLU  |   @CCT  |    RPI   |    UC    |
    | CCT     |  @Yale  |    PU    |    QU    | Cornell | Colgate |    @DC   | @Harvard |
    | Harvard |         |    RPI   |          |  @Brown |  @Yale  |    SLU   |    CCT   |
    | DC      |   @QU   |    UC    |    RPI   |  @Yale  |  @Brown |    CCT   |    SLU   |
    | QU      |    DC   |   @SLU   |   @CCT   |   @RPI  |   @UC   |   Brown  |   Yale   |
    | Yale    |   CCT   | @Colgate | @Cornell |    DC   | Harvard |    @PU   |    @QU   |
    | PU      |         |   @CCT   |   @SLU   |   @UC   |   @RPI  |   Yale   |   Brown  |
    | Brown   |   SLU   | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard |    DC   |    @QU   |    @PU   |
    | SLU     |  @Brown |    QU    |    PU    | Colgate | Cornell | @Harvard |    @DC   |
    | RPI     | Colgate | @Harvard |    @DC   |    QU   |    PU   | @Colgate | @Cornell |
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status still kinda sucks.

    Union's win pushes them over 22 points and means that they can't finish in last. In fact, they can only finish as low as 10th place. I got it with a Qpac-Union tie at 23, SLU and RPI below the tie, and everyone else at either 24 or 25.

    Every other team can still finish by themselves with the least amount of points in the ECAC.

    RPI can still finish in 1st, but can no longer claim sole possession of the Cleary Cup. They would have to tie with at least one other team with their maximum now at 24 points and Union and Cornell still having a pair of games left.

    Every other team can finish in 1st place by themselves.

    Thresholds:
    Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It stays at 29 with the correct tiebreakers after yesterday's tie. Cornell and Union finish with 31 and 30 (or 32 and 29). Harvard, Colgate, and Clarkson all finish at 29 points. With the way I generated the tie, Harvard wins the H2H tiebreaker (7 v 3 v 2), Colgate and Clarkson split the season and the Raiders get to host the Knights with 14 wins instead of 13.

    Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. Likewise, I still see an 8-way tie at 19 points to be Bye Eligible. This time, I gave all of the wins to Union (33 pts), Cornell (32), and Harvard (29) and left RPI on the low side (18) to get everyone settled at 19. SLU earned 17 points against everyone else in that bunch to take the bye. Any two points won against Union, Cornell, or Harvard by any other team should move this number up (which means that it shouldn't change as a result of tonight's game).

    Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slipped to 24 points plus tiebreakers with RPI, SLU, and Princeton (the teams with the three lowest point maximums) all picking up points. It's really, really close to 25 points, still, but not quite, with just 8th and 9th place at 24 points and 3rd through 7th all at 25.

    Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. It creeps up slightly to 15 points due to the number of "upsets" last night. Yale takes the last home-ice spot with 15 points (in my version), with SLU, Princeton, and Brown all tied at 14 and RPI in 12th place with 12 points.

    That's all for today. Expect something up tomorrow or Monday with tonight's results.
    Go Red!!

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  10. #10
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Thanks Burgie! I was looking for the Sioux Sports calculator (I found TBRW's but as you said, it only has 2011 up now) and here it was. Perfect, saves me a lot of math calculations.
    Former Harvard Hockey broadcaster on 95.3 FM and WHRB.org.
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  11. #11
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Harvard and Union are the only two teams left with a strange number of games left. And, with the Colgate / Cornell v Union / RPI travel partners playing each other this past weekend, every team has now played every other team in the league.

    --- Bye Lock - 29+
    --- Home Lock - 24+
    Union 24 - 34 [1-9]
    Cornell 21 - 33 [1-12]
    Colgate 19 - 31 [1-12]
    Harvard 19 - 29 [1-12]
    Clarkson 17 - 29 [1-12]
    Quinnipiac 16 - 28 [1-12]
    Yale 15 - 27 [1-12]
    Dartmouth 15 - 27 [1-12]
    St. Lawrence 13 - 25 [1-12]
    Princeton 13 - 25 [1-12]
    Brown 12 - 24 [1-12]
    Rensselaer 10 - 22 [2-12]
    --- Bye Eligible - 19+
    --- Home Eligible - 15+

    Colgate is ahead of Harvard based on their game in hand, but Clarkson's loss last night drops them down to 5th.

    Yale beat Dartmouth in Hanover last weekend to hold 7th place.

    The Saints' win over the Tigers way back in November gives SLU 9th place.

    Remaining League Schedules:
    Code:
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    |              |    |F2/10|S2/11|F2/17|S2/18|F2/24|S2/25|
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    | Union        | UC | @DA |     |  PN |  QN | @CR | @CG |
    | Cornell      | CR |  BN |  YA | @CK | @SL |  UN |  RP |
    | Colgate      | CG |  YA |  BN | @SL | @CK |  RP |  UN |
    | Harvard      | HA |  RP |     | @BN | @YA |  SL |  CK |
    | Clarkson     | CK |  PN |  QN |  CR |  CG | @DA | @HA |
    | Quinnipiac   | QN | @SL | @CK | @RP | @UN |  BN |  YA |
    | Yale         | YA | @CG | @CR |  DA |  HA | @PN | @QN |
    | Dartmouth    | DA |  UN |  RP | @YA | @BN |  CK |  SL |
    | St. Lawrence | SL |  QN |  PN |  CG |  CR | @HA | @DA |
    | Princeton    | PN | @CK | @SL | @UN | @RP |  YA |  BN |
    | Brown        | BN | @CR | @CG |  HA |  DA | @QN | @PN |
    | Rensselaer   | RP | @HA | @DA |  QN |  PN | @CG | @CR |
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status still kinda sucks.

    Union's floor moves up to 9th place. They still need to tie with somebody, but they can lose the tiebreaker against Quinnipiac. That means that they haven't clinched home-ice yet.

    Cornell can finish in 12th place, but it requires at least a four-way tie. If it's a tie with Clarkson, Colgate, and RPI, then the Big Red lose all of the tiebreakers and finish in last.

    Every other team can still finish by themselves with the least amount of points in the ECAC.

    RPI's max is 2nd place. They can't catch Union anymore, but they have a chance to finish by themselves with 22 points for second.

    Brown cannot pass the Dutchmen, but they can still capture the #1 seed, mostly based on their season sweep of Union.

    Every other team can claim sole possession of the Cleary Cup.

    Thresholds:
    Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slips to 28 with the correct tiebreakers after Clarkson's loss to Yale yesterday. Cornell and Union finish with 31 and 30 (or 32 and 29). Colgate still finishes with 29 points, but Harvard and Clarkson finish at 28. With the way I generated the tie, the Crimson win the H2H tiebreaker (3 v 1) and get the weekend off.

    Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. As I predicted, the tie stays at an 8-way tie at 19 points for 4th place. SLU earned 17 points against everyone else in that bunch to take the bye. Any two points won by Brown, RPI, or Dartmouth on Friday (or any other Dutchmen / Big Red / Crimson opponent) will lower the number.

    Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It stays at 24 points plus tiebreakers for now.

    Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. It stays at 15 points plus tiebreakers, but is dangerously close to moving up even further. The more "upsets" by SLU, Yale, and Princeton will push this number up. Currently, SLU would take the last home-ice spot by winning the H2H tiebreaker (7 v 3 v 2) against Yale and Princeton.

    That's all for today. See all of you on Friday / Saturday next week.
    Last edited by burgie12; 02-05-2012 at 12:51 PM. Reason: New Template for names / schedules
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  12. #12
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Here are your updated "expected standings" through Saturday's games:

    1. Union (30)
    2. Cornell (29)
    3. Colgate (27)
    4. Harvard (26)
    -----
    5. Quinnipiac (23)
    6. Clarkson (22)
    7. Dartmouth (21)
    8. Yale (20)
    -----
    9. Princeton (19)
    10. St. Lawrence (18)
    11. Brown (16)
    12. RPI (13)

    The only difference between these standings and the actual standings are the positions of Quinnipiac and Clarkson, as Quinnipiac has an easier schedule from here in than Clarkson does.

    UPDATE: Harvard's loss tonight caused minor drops in everyone's KRACH, but nothing changed in the standings.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 02-06-2012 at 10:08 PM.
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  13. #13
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    We're getting closer!...

    --- Bye Lock - 28
    Union 26 - 34 [1-5]
    --- Home Lock - 24
    Cornell 23 - 33 [1-9]
    Colgate 21 - 31 [1-10]
    Clarkson 19 - 29 [1-12]
    Harvard 20 - 28 [1-12]
    Quinnipiac 16 - 26 [1-12]
    St. Lawrence 15 - 25 [2-12]
    Yale 15 - 25 [2-12]
    Dartmouth 15 - 25 [2-12]
    Princeton 13 - 23 [3-12]
    Brown 12 - 22 [3-12]
    Rensselaer 11 - 21 [4-12]
    --- Bye Eligible - 21
    --- Home Eligible - 16+

    Clarkson moves up to fourth place over Harvard on their game in hand (0.559 win% vs 0.556), but that disappears tomorrow. So, we'll see how that all sorts itself out.

    Yale, Dartmouth, and SLU have split their H2H serieses (Yale and SLU both have 3 points in three games. Dartmouth has earned two points in two games.) Dartmouth loses the wins tiebreaker, dropping them to 9th. SLU wins the head-to-head tiebreaker against Yale (3v1, season series over) and the Saints earn 7th place.

    Remaining League Schedules:
    Code:
    ---------------------------------------------------
    |              |    |S2/11|F2/17|S2/18|F2/24|S2/25|
    ---------------------------------------------------
    | Union        | UC |     |  PN |  QN | @CR | @CG |
    | Cornell      | CR |  YA | @CK | @SL |  UN |  RP |
    | Colgate      | CG |  BN | @SL | @CK |  RP |  UN |
    | Clarkson     | CK |  QN |  CR |  CG | @DA | @HA |
    | Harvard      | HA |     | @BN | @YA |  SL |  CK |
    | Quinnipiac   | QN | @CK | @RP | @UN |  BN |  YA |
    | St. Lawrence | SL |  PN |  CG |  CR | @HA | @DA |
    | Yale         | YA | @CR |  DA |  HA | @PN | @QN |
    | Dartmouth    | DA |  RP | @YA | @BN |  CK |  SL |
    | Princeton    | PN | @SL | @UN | @RP |  YA |  BN |
    | Brown        | BN | @CG |  HA |  DA | @QN | @PN |
    | Rensselaer   | RP | @DA |  QN |  PN | @CG | @CR |
    ---------------------------------------------------
    Miscellaneous Links:
    Sioux Sports what-if calculator (no tiebreakers)
    TBRW ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script (2010-2011)
    ECAC Tie-Breaking Guidelines
    Playoff Status Standings with (terrible, inaccurate, and unexplained) predictions for final standings

    Individual Team Limits:
    Teams Losing Out (Floors)
    Congratulations to Union for clinching themselves home-ice. They have amassed enough points that only four teams can pass them outright. Quinnipiac can tie the Dutchmen, but if the Bobcats get up to 26 points, then it would end up being a three-way tie with either Clarkson or Harvard. Either way, Union would not lose the three-way tiebreaker and find themselves in 5th place. So, the Dutchmen have moved their floor all the way up to 5th place and they have guaranteed themselves another pair of home games.

    Cornell now officially can't finish in 12th place. It takes a three-way tie, but the Big Red can still finish as low as 9th place. I got it with a three-way tie between the North Country pair and the skaters from Ithaca. Clarkson wins the three-way tie (7 (CCT) v 3 (Cornell) v 2 (SLU)), SLU and Cornell split the season series and the Saints take 8th by wins (11 v 9).

    Colgate's floor is 10th place. They could finish in a tie that encompasses 11th place, but so many of their serieses have (or will have) been splits and they only have one tie, so it's very difficult to get them to lose a lot of tiebreakers.

    Harvard is in a similar situation to the Raiders (they have or will have tied a lot of their season serieses), but they have so many ties that it's easy to make them lose tiebreakers. The Crimson can technically fall all the way back to 12th.

    Clarkson (and everyone else below them in pure points) can still finish by themselves in the basement.

    Teams Winning Out (Ceilings)
    RPI maintains the slimmest of hopes of finishing in 4th position. If they can end up in a tie with Harvard at 21 points, they would share 4th place, but the Engineers would get the benefit of the extra weekend off (season series was a pair of ties, RPI wins on ECAC wins; 9 v 6).

    Brown would need some serious help, but can still finish in 3rd place. They are in the same position as RPI. They want to finish tied with the Crimson based on the season split and Harvard's glut of ties. But, the real point is that every team other than Union and Cornell can finish behind (or tied and losing the tiebreaker) with the Bears at the end of the season if everything goes right (wrong?).

    Princeton's capped out at 3rd place as well. The Tigers can't catch Union. The Tigers can catch Cornell, but lose a H2H tiebreaker against the Big Red and don't have a lot of teams nearby in the standings that they've beat up on that they can use to boost that H2H score. So, it's actually better to let Cornell win out and keep everyone else's point totals down.

    None of Dartmouth, SLU, nor Yale can catch the Dutchmen, but they can claim 2nd place by themselves.

    Quinnipiac can push themselves into a tie for first with Union (and would win the tiebreaker), so they can still finish with the #1 seed come playoff time.

    Each of the Top 5 can claim the Cleary Cup for themselves.

    Thresholds:
    Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slips down to 28 after tonight's games. Union / Cornell / Colgate all with at least 29, Clarkson and Harvard with 27 and 28 (in some order) make up the Top 5.

    Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. Alright. So, with Union, Cornell, and Colgate all with at least 21 and Clarkson and Harvard lined up to play each other in the regular season finale, you need at least 21 points to take a weekend off. If you're outside of the Top 5 trying to move up, you may need to be able to win tiebreakers, but if you're in the Top 5, 21 flat is enough.

    Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It drops a full point to 23 points plus necessary tiebreakers. I got it with Dartmouth and Harvard tied at 23 points with Princeton, Brown, and RPI all below those Ivy travel partners. The Big Green get to host their color brethren based on wins since they split the season series.

    Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. The bottom teams keep pulling "upsets" and this number keeps on moving up. It's now at 16 points plus tiebreakers. I got it with SLU and Yale tied at 16 points (St. Lawrence won the season series 3-1 and gets to host the playoff series), Princeton at 10th with 15 points and Brown and RPI below that.

    That's all for tonight. After tomorrow's games, every team will be down to their last four games (one home set, one away set) and things should become that much closer to solidifying. I should have a post up sometime on Sunday or Monday. I may even start delving into tiebreakers. We'll see.

  14. #14
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Updated "Expected Standings":
    1. Union (31)
    2. Cornell (30)
    3. Colgate (28)
    4. Harvard (25)
    -----
    5. Quinnipiac (23)
    6. Clarkson (22)
    7. St. Lawrence (20)
    8. Dartmouth (19)
    -----
    9. Yale (18)
    10. Princeton (17)
    11. RPI (15)
    12. Brown (15)

    RPI is finally out of last place!!! While the Engineers are only expected to pull two more points, they are expected to maintain their lead on Brown (and with their season sweep, a tie would go for RPI). Elsewhere in the league, Quinnipiac and Clarkson remain reversed from the current standings by virtue of Quinnipiac's easier remaining schedule (3 of 4 games against bottom four teams as opposed to 3 top four teams for Clarkson).
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  15. #15
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    How do you judge the outcomes of the last four games ?
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  16. #16
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Quote Originally Posted by sshablak View Post
    How do you judge the outcomes of the last four games ?
    KRACH has a formula to determine the probability of a team winning a game against a specific other team. Therefore, since it's 2 points for a win, they take that probability, multiply it by 2, and add it to the current point total.
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  17. #17
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    I've been using KRACH to find the number of points a team can expect to take from a game. For example, take Colgate's upcoming game against St. Lawrence. We can find the probability that Colgate will win the game by dividing Colgate's KRACH by the combined KRACHs of the two teams. With current KRACH rankings, that gives Colgate about a 66.45% chance of winning the game. Given that each game awards two points, they can expect to get about 1.33 points from the game. The biggest problem with this system is that it doesn't really account for momentum, meaning that SLU's recent four-game winning streak isn't taken into account. There is also no adequate way to consider for home-ice advantage. As such, my expected rankings are in no way perfect, just a prediction of what is "likely" to happen.

    EDIT: Thanks for explaining it first, FlagDUDE.
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  18. #18
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Hooray! No more games in hand. No more wibbly-wobbliness (sorry, I've been watching a lot of Doctor Who recently). Just four games left and then the playoffs can start.

    --- Bye Lock - 27
    Union 26 - 34 [1-5]
    Cornell 25 - 33 [1-7]
    Colgate 23 - 31 [1-7]
    --- Home Lock - 22+
    Harvard 20 - 28 [1-11]
    Clarkson 19 - 27 [1-11]
    Quinnipiac 18 - 26 [2-12]
    St. Lawrence 17 - 25 [2-12]
    Yale 15 - 23 [4-12]
    Dartmouth 15 - 23 [3-12]
    Princeton 13 - 21 [4-12]
    Rensselaer 13 - 21 [4-12]
    --- Bye Eligible - 21
    Brown 12 - 20 [5-12]
    --- Home Eligible - 16+

    Yale beat Dartmouth in Hanover a couple weeks ago and therefore hold the tiebreaker. They'll play each other on Friday to solidify who will hold onto this spot. For now, the Bulldogs hold onto 8th.

    Princeton beat RPI in New Jersey in December and therefore wins the tiebreaker. These teams will also play each other next weekend.

    Remaining League Schedules:
    Code:
    ---------------------------------------------
    |              |    |F2/17|S2/18|F2/24|S2/25|
    ---------------------------------------------
    | Union        | UC |  PN |  QN | @CR | @CG |
    | Cornell      | CR | @CK | @SL |  UN |  RP |
    | Colgate      | CG | @SL | @CK |  RP |  UN |
    | Harvard      | HA | @BN | @YA |  SL |  CK |
    | Clarkson     | CK |  CR |  CG | @DA | @HA |
    | Quinnipiac   | QN | @RP | @UN |  BN |  YA |
    | St. Lawrence | SL |  CG |  CR | @HA | @DA |
    | Yale         | YA |  DA |  HA | @PN | @QN |
    | Dartmouth    | DA | @YA | @BN |  CK |  SL |
    | Princeton    | PN | @UN | @RP |  YA |  BN |
    | Rensselaer   | RP |  QN |  PN | @CG | @CR |
    | Brown        | BN |  HA |  DA | @QN | @PN |
    ---------------------------------------------
    Miscellaneous Links:
    Sioux Sports what-if calculator (no tiebreakers)
    TBRW ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script
    ECAC Tie-Breaking Guidelines
    Playoff Status Standings with (terrible, inaccurate, and unexplained) predictions for final standings

    Individual Team Limits:
    Teams Losing Out (Floors)
    Union's floor is still fifth place. There can be a three-way tie for fourth place. And, they wouldn't finish third in any of those ties. With Quinnipiac winning the supposed tiebreaker, Union has not clinched a bye (yet). With Union having swept Clarkson, the Knights' performance doesn't matter all that much. If the Bobcats lose a point, though, that will be enough for the Dutchmen to secure a weekend off.

    Cornell has also clinched home-ice. They can fall to 7th place if it's a three-way tie for fifth place between Clarkson, SLU, and the Big Red. Clarkson wins the H2H (7 v 3 (Cornell) v 2 (SLU)) and then the Saints win the battle for 6th place on ECAC wins (12 v 10) after splitting the season series.

    Colgate is guaranteed an extra pair of home games, too. They can only fall as far as 7th place. Either Yale or Dartmouth, but not both (because of their game on Friday) can catch the Raiders. And, Colgate can't lose a tiebreaker to either team (they'd win on ECAC wins over Dartmouth and Points vs Top 4 over Yale because I can't find a way to push Cornell out of the Top 4 if we're also pushing teams past Colgate). So, Colgate can only drop down to 7th as a result. Congratulations on clinching home-ice.

    Harvard can still fall all the way to 11th. It would come down to a three-way tie for 9th with Princeton and RPI. Princeton would win the H2H portion (5 points v 4 (Harvard) v 3 (RPI)) and then the Harvard / RPI tie would go to the Engineers on ECAC wins (8 v 6).

    Clarkson can fall into a three-way tie for 10th with any variety of teams, but I can't see a way for them to lose that tie. So, instead, I'll push them down to 11th by themselves.

    Quinnipiac and everyone below them can fall down to 12th.

    Teams Winning Out (Ceilings)
    Brown's loss means they can only climb as high as 5th. With Harvard and Clarkson having a game left against each other, the Bears can only catch one of them.

    RPI still maintains the slimmest of hopes of finishing in 4th position. If they can end up in a tie with Harvard at 21 points, they would share 4th place, but the Engineers would get the benefit of the extra weekend off (season series was a pair of ties, RPI wins on ECAC wins; 9 v 6).

    Princeton is in the same situation as RPI, except they have split with both Harvard and Clarkson. They would win either tiebreaker (wins against Harvard, points vs Top 4 against Clarkson).

    Dartmouth can climb to 3rd, but only if they can get another team tied with them and Colgate (preferably SLU, then they'd win the H2H 6 points v 4 (Colgate) v 2 (SLU)).

    There are no "beneficial" "third teams" for Yale. The Bulldogs can catch, but not pass the Raiders and would lose the tiebreaker on Points vs Top 4 (Colgate swept Cornell and Princeton can only gain two points against Union). So, Yale's ceiling is 4th place.

    SLU can move into a tie with Cornell and would win a tiebreaker against the Big Red on ECAC wins (12 v 10) after the season split. Therefore, the Saints can move all the way up to 2nd.

    With Cornell's win yesterday and the remaining game between the Dutchmen and Big Red, Quinnipiac can no longer finish in 1st place. Quinnipiac can finish by themselves in 2nd or in a tie with Union. Either way, they'd claim the #2 seed.

    Similar to the Bobcats, Clarkson can no longer claim the Cup for themselves. At least one of Union and Cornell has to finish with 27 points. The Knights would prefer that it's the Big Red that win the match-up against Union in Ithaca on the final weekend. CCT wins the tiebreaker with Cornell based on winning the season series. Therefore, Clarkson can still finish with the #1 seed.

    Each of the Top 4 can claim the Cleary Cup for themselves.

    Thresholds:
    Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. It slips down to 27 after last night's games. Union / Cornell / Colgate all with at least 28, Clarkson and Harvard with 26 and 27 (in some order) make up the Top 5.

    Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. Alright. So, with Union, Cornell, and Colgate all with at least 21 and Clarkson and Harvard lined up to play each other in the regular season finale, you need at least 21 points to take a weekend off. If you're outside of the Top 5 trying to move up, you may need to be able to win tiebreakers, but if you're in the Top 5, 21 flat is enough.

    Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. It drops another full point to 22 points plus necessary tiebreakers. I got it with Dartmouth and Yale tied at 22 points with Princeton, Brown, and RPI all below the two Ivies. Yale would get to host the Big Green based on the season series win.

    Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. The bottom teams keep pulling "upsets" and this number keeps on moving up. It's now at 16 points plus tiebreakers. I got it with Dartmouth, Princeton, and Yale tied at 16 points (Yale wins the H2H tiebreaker 5 points v 4 (Dartmouth) v 3 (Princeton)) and Brown and RPI tied for 11th with 15 points.

    That's all for today. The teams are too close and the results are too variable for me to start going into any tiebreakers other than the extreme ones (Union / Quinnipiac, Brown / Quinnipiac, etc.). We'll see what happens after Friday's games. I may start looking into them then. In the meantime, enjoy the games.
    Last edited by burgie12; 02-13-2012 at 06:34 AM. Reason: deleted extra Quinnipiac line
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  19. #19
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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Bumpity bump bump. Maybe now Brian will be able to find the thread.

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    Re: ECAC Byes and Home-Ice 2011-12

    Word.

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