UML 2011-2012 Thread: Part II

[UMLFan]

I don't remember seeing stats like this (this late in the year) in a long long time ... there are four points separating the leading point scorer for UML (Vallorani, 22) from the 7th in points (Wallin and Pendenza with 18). In just shows that you've got such even scoring around them team right now when you've got 8 players clumped together like that, impressive. Only 3 of the 8 are upperclassmen, only one is a d-man. Of the top-10 in points, 7 are freshmen and sophomores.

[Go-UML]

I don't remember seeing stats like this (this late in the year) in a long long time ... there are four points separating the leading point scorer for UML (Vallorani, 22) from the 7th in points (Wallin and Pendenza with 18). In just shows that you've got such even scoring around them team right now when you've got 8 players clumped together like that, impressive. Only 3 of the 8 are upperclassmen, only one is a d-man. Of the top-10 in points, 7 are freshmen and sophomores.

That's awesome.

[ScottK]

Lowell once again has the Rookie of the Week. For the 3rd time this year, it's Terrence Wallin.

http://www.goriverhawks.com/sports/m...013012aaa.html

[John_Fuller]

While bored at work, I calculated the average opponent conference winning % for each team for the remaining HE games. While Lowell doesn't have an easy schedule out, at least we're not Mass, UVM, or Mack:

Team	Win %	Schedule
BU	 0.425%	Mack, Amherst, Lowell(2),  VT(2), NU(2)
BC	 0.396%	Mack(2), PC(2), VT(3)
Mack	 0.545%	BU, Amherst(3), Lowell (3), UNH, BC (2)
Maine	 0.438%	PC, Lowell, Amherst(2), NU(2), UNH
Lowell   0.522%	UVM(2), Mack(3), Maine, BU(2), PC(2)
PC	 0.501%	UNH(2), Maine, Amherst, NU(2), BC(2), Lowell (2)
Mass	 0.548%	NU, Mack(3), BU, PC, Maine(2), UNH(2)
NU	 0.536%	Amherst, UNH, PC(2), Maine(2), BU(2)
UNH	 0.416%	PC(2), NU, Mack, UVM(2), Amherst(2), Maine
UVM	 0.579%	Lowell(2), BC(3), UNH(2), BU(2)

Maine also has a 2 game set this weekend with UAH, and obviously you have NU, BC, and BU with 2 Beanpot games apiece.

Good post, I did the same thing last night after the Merrimack game and saw the disproportionate schedule. Then again, BC only has the seven league games left. Of the teams with the most to lose, I think Merrimack has the toughest schedule home. Other than Vermont, that's a really tough stretch for Lowell but at least 70% of the games are at the Tsongas. Let's beat UVM, but the two game I want from this stretch are the first game with Merrimack and home game with BU. Force Merrimack to win two games for the series and take the season series from BU on home ice making the Agganis game somewhat irrelevant.

[irishfan85]

While bored at work, I calculated the average opponent conference winning % for each team for the remaining HE games. While Lowell doesn't have an easy schedule out, at least we're not Mass, UVM, or Mack:

Team	Win %	Schedule
BU	 0.425%	Mack, Amherst, Lowell(2),  VT(2), NU(2)
BC	 0.396%	Mack(2), PC(2), VT(3)
Mack	 0.545%	BU, Amherst(3), Lowell (3), UNH, BC (2)
Maine	 0.438%	PC, Lowell, Amherst(2), NU(2), UNH
Lowell   0.522%	UVM(2), Mack(3), Maine, BU(2), PC(2)
PC	 0.501%	UNH(2), Maine, Amherst, NU(2), BC(2), Lowell (2)
Mass	 0.548%	NU, Mack(3), BU, PC, Maine(2), UNH(2)
NU	 0.536%	Amherst, UNH, PC(2), Maine(2), BU(2)
UNH	 0.416%	PC(2), NU, Mack, UVM(2), Amherst(2), Maine
UVM	 0.579%	Lowell(2), BC(3), UNH(2), BU(2)

Maine also has a 2 game set this weekend with UAH, and obviously you have NU, BC, and BU with 2 Beanpot games apiece.

The other interesting thing to look at would be home/away games for rest of schedule.

[Patronick]

Team	Win %	Schedule
BU	 0.425%	@MC Mass @Lowell Lowell @UVM (2) NU @NU - 3H/5A
BC	 0.396%	@UVM MC @MC @PC PC UVM (2) - 4H/3A
Mack	 0.545%	BU @Mass @Lowell UNH @BC BC Lowell @Lowell @Mass Mass  5H/5A
Maine	 0.438%	@PC @Lowell Mass (2) @NU (2) UNH - 3H/4A
Lowell   0.522%	UVM (2) MC ME BU @BU @MC MC @PC PC - 7H/3A
PC	 0.501%	@UNH UNH ME @Mass @NU (2) BC @BC Lowell @Lowell - 4H/6A
Mass	 0.548%	@NU Mack @BU Providence, @ME (2) UNH (2) MC @MC - 5H/5A
NU	 0.536%	Mass @UNH PC (2) ME (2) @BU BU - 6H/2A
UNH	 0.416%	PC @PC, NU @MC UVM (2), @Mass (2) @ME - 4H/5A
UVM	 0.579%	@Lowell (2) BC @UNH (2) BU (2) @BC (2) - 3H/6A

Done.

[UMLFan]

Lowell's 2-1 week helps them move up to #9 nationally. BU drops from 2nd to 3rd, Merrimack (4th) moves up a spot and BC (5th) moves up 2, while Maine makes the largest leap from 20th to 15th.

[irishfan85]

Lowell is looking pretty with seven home games, especially if they can sweep an inferior UVM team this weekend. After this weekend, they do not play a team below 6th in the standings. Three with Merrimack then two and one with BU and Maine respectively. BU and Maine will certainly be ready for those games as UML handed it to both teams earlier in the year. PC is a good squad, good coach.

I think you could go as far as saying the next four games are huge for UML as I think it would be a good bet that the last three home and home series would be splits. I've seen UVM play four times this year and they are really terrible. I love seeing the two MV teams doing well. Hope UML sweeps UVM and MC wins at least one game this weekend (both will be tough). It would set up a huge game. Might be the biggest ever between the two since the D2 days.

Right now, I ran the what if calculator and came up with the following:

1. MC 37 (7-3)
2. BU 35 (5-3)
3. BC 35 (5-2)
4. Maine 34 (5-2)
5. UML 32 (5-5)
6. PC 27 (5-5)
7. NU 24 (5-3)
8. UNH 21 (4-5)
9. UMass 20 (3-6)
10. UVM 5 (0-9)

I know that most likely there will be ties, but I picked a winner/loser for every game. I'm sure some of it is a little biased, but we'll see. I think home ice is very key, especially for Merrimack and Maine, plus anyone who has to play them on the road.

[UMLFan]

4. Maine 34 (5-2)
5. UML 32 (5-5)

I really don't like your what-if calculator!

[irishfan85]

I see splits with the last three series. I see UML sweeping UVM. I see the other UML-MC game as 50/50. The other game is against Maine, which is on a roll right now and UML beat Maine twice up there so you would think Maine would come out hot with something to prove.

[snipeshow10]

I am hoping 5-5 is the low point. Clearly sweeping UVM is a neccesity and after watching the PC game, I think they can win both of them as well. The MC games will be the biggest of the season by far if they want to make a move in the standings. Also having the tiebreaker vs Maine will hopefully come in handy. Being at Tsongas for 7 out of 10 helps a ton. Would love to see 7-3 and anything beyond that would be great. 10-0 would make it a whole lot easier on everyone I say though....

Another question I had does Carr play out the rest of the season? The kid has been unbelievable and if he keeps playing the same way he will force his way into Hobey/Goalie of the year contention. I would say this weekend would be the last real opportunity for him to get a night off since every night will be a battle for points....just food for thought

[UMLFan]

I see splits with the last three series. I see UML sweeping UVM. I see the other UML-MC game as 50/50. The other game is against Maine, which is on a roll right now and UML beat Maine twice up there so you would think Maine would come out hot with something to prove.

Don't get me wrong, I understand what you're saying. I'm just not happy with any results that wind up with Lowell at Maine again.

I am hoping 5-5 is the low point. Clearly sweeping UVM is a neccesity and after watching the PC game, I think they can win both of them as well. The MC games will be the biggest of the season by far if they want to make a move in the standings. Also having the tiebreaker vs Maine will hopefully come in handy. Being at Tsongas for 7 out of 10 helps a ton. Would love to see 7-3 and anything beyond that would be great. 10-0 would make it a whole lot easier on everyone I say though....

Another question I had does Carr play out the rest of the season? The kid has been unbelievable and if he keeps playing the same way he will force his way into Hobey/Goalie of the year contention. I would say this weekend would be the last real opportunity for him to get a night off since every night will be a battle for points....just food for thought

I think you ride the hot hand right now, and take no chances. It's obvious the team plays differently with Carr in net, so unless he's injured or just exhausted, there's no point in him sitting.

[John_Fuller]

Lowell is looking pretty with seven home games, especially if they can sweep an inferior UVM team this weekend. After this weekend, they do not play a team below 6th in the standings. Three with Merrimack then two and one with BU and Maine respectively. BU and Maine will certainly be ready for those games as UML handed it to both teams earlier in the year. PC is a good squad, good coach.

I think you could go as far as saying the next four games are huge for UML as I think it would be a good bet that the last three home and home series would be splits. I've seen UVM play four times this year and they are really terrible. I love seeing the two MV teams doing well. Hope UML sweeps UVM and MC wins at least one game this weekend (both will be tough). It would set up a huge game. Might be the biggest ever between the two since the D2 days.

Right now, I ran the what if calculator and came up with the following:

1. MC 37 (7-3)

I know that most likely there will be ties, but I picked a winner/loser for every game. I'm sure some of it is a little biased, but we'll see. I think home ice is very key, especially for Merrimack and Maine, plus anyone who has to play them on the road.

I'll say this, I think Lowell will be at worst 6-4-0 during this stretch. Also, if Merrimack can go 7-3-0 without Madsen, possibly Sheen (he got hacked in yesterday's game), and taking all of those penalties, I would be very impressed.

I would be shocked if none of the game were tied for both Merrimack and Lowell come the end of the season.

[snipeshow10]

I think you ride the hot hand right now, and take no chances. It's obvious the team plays differently with Carr in net, so unless he's injured or just exhausted, there's no point in him sitting.

I agree with you since you need every point down the stretch of the season. Home ice for Lowell would be a huge accomplishment for this team and as we've seen, they are a much better team at home. Also, the idea of going up to Maine again does not sound appetizing at all.

[irishfan85]

I'll say this, I think Lowell will be at worst 6-4-0 during this stretch. Also, if Merrimack can go 7-3-0 without Madsen, possibly Sheen (he got hacked in yesterday's game), and taking all of those penalties, I would be very impressed.

I would be shocked if none of the game were tied for both Merrimack and Lowell come the end of the season.

Agreed. Those two guys are a big part of the team. Top two penalty killers. The team definitely needs to stay out of the box. All of that I agree with. The lack of offense concerns me. The thing that I hold my hat on as a Merrimack fan is that we have the best and most experienced goalie in the league.

[Patronick]

Lowell is looking pretty with seven home games, especially if they can sweep an inferior UVM team this weekend. After this weekend, they do not play a team below 6th in the standings. Three with Merrimack then two and one with BU and Maine respectively. BU and Maine will certainly be ready for those games as UML handed it to both teams earlier in the year. PC is a good squad, good coach.

I think you could go as far as saying the next four games are huge for UML as I think it would be a good bet that the last three home and home series would be splits. I've seen UVM play four times this year and they are really terrible. I love seeing the two MV teams doing well. Hope UML sweeps UVM and MC wins at least one game this weekend (both will be tough). It would set up a huge game. Might be the biggest ever between the two since the D2 days.

Right now, I ran the what if calculator and came up with the following:

1. MC 37 (7-3)
2. BU 35 (5-3)
3. BC 35 (5-2)
4. Maine 34 (5-2)
5. UML 32 (5-5)
6. PC 27 (5-5)
7. NU 24 (5-3)
8. UNH 21 (4-5)
9. UMass 20 (3-6)
10. UVM 5 (0-9)

I know that most likely there will be ties, but I picked a winner/loser for every game. I'm sure some of it is a little biased, but we'll see. I think home ice is very key, especially for Merrimack and Maine, plus anyone who has to play them on the road.

Assuming Lowell sweeps UVM and splits the rest of the way, that's still 6-4. With 7 of 10 being played at home, I don't see Lowell going 5-5, considering they have the best home win percentage in Hockey East:

Lowell (6-1) .857
BC (6-2-1) .666
BU (6-4-0) .600
Maine (6-4-0) .600
Providence (6-3-1) .600
UMass (4-1-2) .571
Merrimack (4-2-2) .500
UNH (4-5-0) .444
Northeastern (3-4-1) .375
UVM (2-7-1) .200

[UMLFan]

Agreed. Those two guys are a big part of the team. Top two penalty killers. The team definitely needs to stay out of the box. All of that I agree with. The lack of offense concerns me. The thing that I hold my hat on as a Merrimack fan is that we have the best and most experienced goalie in the league.

There are some Lowell fans that will disagree about the "best" part of that statement. Cannata has the name and reputation, but the numbers so far this year show that he's not superior to Carr (in league play and overall).

[Patronick]

Agreed. Those two guys are a big part of the team. Top two penalty killers. The team definitely needs to stay out of the box. All of that I agree with. The lack of offense concerns me. The thing that I hold my hat on as a Merrimack fan is that we have the best and most experienced goalie in the league.

Most experienced? Sure, I'll give you that.

Best? I disagree completely. Also, the stats would beg to differ:

Carr: 1.82/.935 (1.93/.933)
Cannata 2.02/.929 (2.10/.931)

[irishfan85]

Stats when they are that close are meaningless. Both have had good years. They don't take into consideration how the goals were scored, grade A saves, what types of defense the teams play, etc. Joe Cannata will make an NHL roster one day. Doug Carr might, as well, but I'd put my money on Cannata making it further professionally. I'd also say that over the four years, Joe has proven to be one of the best goalies in the country.

[UMLFan]

Changing the topic slightly, nice article about the lack of student/fan attention to the UML basketball team. The team is currently 10-5 in league (14-5 overall), just one game out of the NE-10 lead. Strange to see that there are 5 teams within a game of the NE-10 lead, and all of them are 14-5 overall. UML does have three games left (out of their total 6) against teams that are either tied with them or ahead of them, so they'll definitely have a say in who wins the NE-10, and have currently won 5 in a row and 8 out of 9.