Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The #1 seeds:

Yale (#1-#3) - The only way Yale loses the #1 overall seed is by winning this weekend and then losing twice to TUC teams (Union, Dartmouth, Cornell) at Atlantic City. Win one there and they are #1. They can also secure #1 overall if they lose this weekend. St. Lawrence cannot become a TUC even by winning the ECAC Championship. If they lose twice they can fall as far as third if BC and UND win their league titles.

Most likely: #1

Boston College (#1-#4) - The worst that can happen for the Eagles is to be swept by UMass, while Union, North Dakota and Merrimack win their conference championships. That would drop the Eagles into a 4 way tie for 2nd, with BC finishing 4th. There is no way for Michigan to catch BC. They are percentage points ahead of UND on their record vs TUC. If they advance past UMass, they have to win both games vs TUC in the Garden, or have UND lose to a TUC in the WCHA SF or F.

Most likely: #2

North Dakota (#1-#5) - If somehow Michigan Tech were to win the series at Grand Forks and Merrimack and Michigan win their conferences, North Dakota would fall to 5th. With two victories this weekend (even if Tech steals a game) they wrap up a #1 seed. With a loss in St. Paul they would fall to fourth if Merrimack wins Hockey East. Once again, Michigan cannot pass the Sioux even by winning the CCHA.

Most Likely: #3

Michigan (#3-#11) Losses this weekend and a rash of upsets in other conferences could knock Michigan all the way down to 11th. Either Denver or Minn-Duluth would finish #12 and only one can win the WCHA. While playing with Michigan scenarios, I was able to raise Miami, Duluth and UNH into the last #1 seed, depending on their conference outcomes. Because Michigan's NC schedule included UNH, CC, UNO, Minnesota and Wisconsin there is a great deal of fluctuation in the COp component.

Most likely: #4

[unh1982]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

priceless is it next week when the pairwise pred. gets rolled out

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

priceless is it next week when the pairwise pred. gets rolled out

Yes, after the conference QF USCHO and CHNews both roll out the pairwise predictor. CHNews teased me with a Twitter link to the predictor, but it just had a pairwise and tournament primer.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Union (#4-#12) Can only get the final #1 seed by winning the ECAC, Denver losing before the final of the WCHA, BC/BU/Maine winning Hockey East and someone besides Michigan and Miami emerging from the CCHA. UNH, Merrimack, Michigan, Miami and Denver can all take the #1 seed by winning their conference. Union can lose this weekend or twice in AC and still not fall below #12. It looks like they are in the tournament.

Most Likely: #5

Miami (#4-#14) Miami can snag the final #1 spot by winning the CCHA title while Notre Dame and Michigan tie in the consolation game while Denver, Union and Merrimack all fail to win their conferences. They can fall all the way to 14th with two losses this weekend and wins by some of the middle teams in their tournaments. A single win this weekend would clinch them a spot, but their sights should be set on a #2 seed in St. Louis.

Most Likely: #6

Denver (#4-#14) The way for Denver to get a 1 seed is for Michigan and Miami to tie in the CCHA consolation game, Merrimack lose the series with Maine, Union not win the ECAC all while winning the WCHA. On the other hand, they can lose this weekend and end up missing the tournament entirely. With wins this weekend, they can finish no worse than #11. They are probably going to end up as a #2 seed.

Most Likely: #7

Nebraska-Omaha (#4-out) UNO can get the final #1 seed by winning the WCHA as long as Merrimack and New Hampshire fail to win Hockey East, Michigan or Miami fails to win the CCHA and Union fails to win the ECAC. With losses this weekend to Bemidji they can easily fall all the way out of the tournament (I stopped at #17) because the Beavers will regain their TUC status. Win this weekend and they are in.

Most Likely: #8

[bigblue_dl]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Alrighty, Priceless, since you seem to be able to figure anything PWR related out, I have a doozy for you. What has to happen to get Denver, UNO, UND and BC in different regions? (as far as we can tell using bracketology)

(I would ideally like the 4 teams I have money on to all make the Frozen 4, so I can focus on spending the money I'm winning on booze and strippers instead of worrying about the outcomes of the games.)

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Alrighty, Priceless, since you seem to be able to figure anything PWR related out, I have a doozy for you. What has to happen to get Denver, UNO, UND and BC in different regions? (as far as we can tell using bracketology)

(I would ideally like the 4 teams I have money on to all make the Frozen 4, so I can focus on spending the money I'm winning on booze and strippers instead of worrying about the outcomes of the games.)

All favorites win out and the Denver/Notre Dame tilt is moved to St. Louis for the Miami/UMD game.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Notre Dame (#4-#13) Yet another team that can get to #4 if everything goes right. It's a serpentine route to get there that begins with them winning the CCHA. Toss in Union, Merrimack, New Hampshire, Denver, UMD and UNO all losing in their tournaments. The odds are very slight. They can also move down to #13 by losing to Lake Superior this weekend. That should be enough to get in, but wins this weekend would guarantee a spot.

Most Likely: #9

Minnesota-Duluth (#4-out) Stop me if you've heard this before: They can finish #4 if they win their league tournament and a bunch of other teams lose. It would take just as unlikely an event to knock them out of the NCAA picture. They have the benefit of being the only currently eligible team from the WCHA for whom the Green Bay region is drivable.

Most Likely: #10

Merrimack (#3-out) Here's something new: Merrimack can steal the #3 seed by winning Hockey East as long as North Dakota loses in the WCHA SF and Michigan and Union lose in their conference tournaments. If either win, NoDak slips back in as #3. The Warriors can also fall all the way out (got them to #16) with the right string of upsets. A single win this weekend will wrap up an invite. They easily have the widest range and are the most difficult to predict.

Most Likely: #11

New Hampshire (#4-out) The final team that can get all the way to #4 if they win the conference tournament and a slew of teams ahead of them all fall in their conferences. They can fall out, but what are the odds New Hampshire loses a home series to Vermont? They need to win this weekend. Odds are that will wrap up a spot, but a win in Boston would make it a sure thing. Because of the logjam ahead of them, it will be very difficult to move up. There are 4 WCHA teams, 3 CCHA teams and 2 other Hockey East clubs ahead of them. The extra TUC teams also hurt as teams ahead of them will play multiple TUC games (often against each other) which limits the Wildcats' potential to move up.

Most Likely: #12

There are two very clear lines of demarcation here. The top 3 teams have put a lot of separation between themselves and the rest of the field. Then another line exists after New Hampshire at #12. Even with two losses to Vermont, UNH only drops to 14th. It's only when games involving BU, Maine, Western Michigan, Dartmouth and CC are added to the mix that they fall out of the field. Barring amazing upsets this weekend, this top 12 should all make the field of 16. That would be only the 4th time that has happened.

Next up: The bubble
What it will take for Dartmouth, Boston University, Maine, Alaska, Minnesota, St Cloud State and Wisconsin to take one of the last three spots.

[LTsatch]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless says about Yale
"They can also secure #1 overall if they lose this weekend."

Very similar to last year with Yale. When Brown beat them in the ECAC quarters it preserved Yale's four seed in the NCAA's. Crazy system I tell ya.

[IrishHockeyFan]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless says about Yale
"They can also secure #1 overall if they lose this weekend."

Very similar to last year with Yale. When Brown beat them in the ECAC quarters it preserved Yale's four seed in the NCAA's. Crazy system I tell ya.

Notre Dame's most successful post season run to date was aided in part by a loss to Northern Michigan in the 2008 CCHA consolation game. Had the game ended in a tie they wold have missed the tourney entirely. Everyone knew this going in before the game. When they pulled the goalie trailing 2-1 late in the third, I could only scratch my head. Any system where a tie in hockey is worse than a loss needs a little work.

[goblue78]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

it preserved Yale's four seed in the NCAA's

Yale was a three seed; and if they'd have beaten Brown, they had the chance to rise to a two. (Of course, they could have dropped out altogether as well.) But when you're the number one overall seed, there's no improvement possible, so it generally pays to drop out as soon as possible, subject to not letting other teams have enough games to catch you. As I mentioned over on the Yale thread, this results from the fact that PWR takes no account of when you win or lose games, so that losses late in the season get no more weight than the same game in November.

[Bakunin]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

St. Lawrence cannot become a TUC even by winning the ECAC Championship.

Aren't all AQ's considered to be TUCs since they are in the tournament?
(Wasn't this the case in past seasons? I can't remember)

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Aren't all AQ's considered to be TUCs since they are in the tournament?
(Wasn't this the case in past seasons? I can't remember)

That's Mookie's Bentley Rule (tm) which prevents tournament winners from becoming automatic TUC. The rule was changed after the 2006 season.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Dartmouth - They can get as high as #7 overall if they win the ECAC and all the teams in the middle of the pack all lose, get food poisoning or some other calamity befalls them. Lose this weekend to Harvard and the season is over. If they advance past this weekend, they need to win one TUC game in AC. Their TUC record is such that they cannot afford two losses. Winning a game puts them in 13th, losing both puts them at 20th. They are also hurt by the fact that Cornell and Quinnipiac play each other in the QF. They would love to be rid of both teams from TUC, but are likely to lose only one. This weekend will determine nothing for Dartmouth; their fate will be determined in AC. If they reach the 3rd place game and tie, it'll be too close to call.
I will bet that they win one of the two games and get an invite as the top #4 seed.


Western Michigan - Can get as high as a #3 seed by winning this weekend and winning at least one at the CCHA Frozen Four. Because their QF foe is a TUC, they have a little more leeway than Dartmouth. If they sweep this weekend they can afford to lose both TUC games in Detroit, as long as there are no upsets elsewhere. As the #4 seed in the CCHA they slim favorites over #5 Ferris State. They are also underdogs at the Joe. There are always upsets somewhere.
I would guess the Broncos miss the NCAA tournament.

Ferris State - The easiest way in for all these teams is to win the autobid, but these select few can secure at-large bids. Ferris State needs to sweep Western and win one of two TUC games at the Joe. Then they need help. Maine, BU, Minnesota, SCSU and CC all have to lose in the QF (or play-in games of the Final Five). Dartmouth losing out would also help.
The Bulldogs' either need the autobid or be happy playing the spoiler.

Alaska - Even more dire are the Nanooks chances. They need to sweep Miami then win one of the two TUC games in Detroit. They also need Maine, BU, Minnesota, SCSU, CC and Dartmouth to lose this weekend. They also need the Ferris/Western winner to lose both games in Detroit. That last part can happen if the winner of the 4/5 match in the CCHA loses to Notre Dame and then lose to Fairbanks.
My odds of winning the lottery are better. The Nooks will make this all irrelevant by losing this weekend.

Minnesota - If all higher seeds win, they somehow make the field. To be safe, they need to sweep this weekend and win their play-in game. That would give them a 3-1 record vs TUC. Lose the play-in game and it's really too close to call. Lose to UAA this weekend and it's all very easy.
The Gophers take advantage of the expanded TUC rules and get into the field as #15 overall, the last team in.

St Cloud State - Need to advance to at least the WCHA SF on Friday. Need everyone ahead of them to lose early. Not going to happen.

Colorado College - Needs to at least win the play-in game and have Minnesota, Western or Dartmouth lose this weekend. Not a rigorous path, but it's March and I don't trust the Tigers. No invite.

Wisconsin - The NCAA would so love the Badger$ to get into the field. They better get the autobid because the road is long and winding. It starts in the Springs as Wisconsin has to go on the road and sweep CC, then win the play-in game and the WCHA SF. They also need the usual suspects to lose this weekend.

Boston University - They have been flirting with the NCAA all year; sometimes the last team in, sometimes the first team out. They're crushed by the fact their QF opponent is Northeastern and not TUC Maine. Two wins this weekend will do very little for the Terriers. They need a win in the Hockey East SF against a TUC to move any higher and earn an invite. If you bet against Jack Parker at Boston Garden you'd have gone broke years ago. Fortunately, I don't bet.

That leaves Maine. They need to win at least two of three at the Mack and either have Western Michigan, Minnesota or Dartmouth crap out. A win in Boston Garden would be nice. I think Western craps out. Maine gets an invite. Yes, I'm a tremendous homer, but I also think it will happen.

And here's the script

20110311	Me	2	Mr	1	 NC
20110311	NE	0	BU	1	 NC
20110311	Vt	0	NH	1	 NC
20110311	MA	0	BC	1	 NC
20110312	Me	2	Mr	1	 NC
20110312	Me	0	Mr	1	 NC
20110312	NE	0	BU	1	 NC
20110312	NE	2	BU	1	 NC
20110312	Vt	0	NH	1	 NC
20110312	MA	0	BC	1	 NC
20110318	Me	0	BC	1	 nc
20110318	NH	2	BU	1	 nc
20110319	NH	0	BC	1	 nc
20110311	MT	0	ND	1	 NC
20110311	Mk	0	DU	1	 NC
20110311	BS	0	NO	1	 NC
20110311	SC	0	MD	1	 NC
20110311	AA	0	Mn	1	 NC
20110311	Wi	0	CC	1	 NC
20110312	MT	0	ND	1	 NC
20110312	Mk	0	DU	1	 NC
20110312	BS	0	NO	1	 NC
20110312	SC	0	MD	1	 NC
20110312	AA	0	Mn	1	 NC
20110312	AA	2	Mn	1	 NC
20110312	Wi	0	CC	1	 NC
20110312	Wi	2	CC	1	 NC
20110317	CC	0	NO	1	 nc
20110317	Mn	2	MD	1	 nc
20110318	NO	0	DU	1	 nc
20110318	Mn	0	ND	1	 nc
20110319	DU	0	ND	1	 nc
20110311	SH	0	AF	1	 NC
20110311	Ca	0	HC	1	 NC
20110311	AI	0	RT	1	 NC
20110311	Mh	0	Ct	1	 nc
20110312	SH	0	AF	1	 NC
20110312	Ca	0	HC	1	 NC
20110312	AI	0	RT	1	 NC
20110312	Mh	0	Ct	1	 nc
20110318	Ct	0	AF	1	 nc
20110318	HC	0	RT	1	 nc
20110319	AF	0	RT	1	 nc
20110311	Cg	0	Un	1	 NC
20110311	Qn	0	Cr	1	 NC
20110311	SL	0	Ya	1	 NC
20110311	Ha	0	Da	1	 NC
20110312	Cg	0	Un	1	 NC
20110312	Qn	0	Cr	1	 NC
20110312	Qn	2	Cr	1	 NC
20110312	SL	0	Ya	1	 NC
20110312	Ha	0	Da	1	 NC
20110318	Da	0	Ya	1	 nc
20110318	Cr	0	Un	1	 nc
20110319	Cr	0	Da	1	 nc
20110319	Ya	0	Un	1	 nc
20110311	BG	0	Mi	1	 NC
20110311	LS	0	Nt	1	 NC
20110311	Ak	0	Mm	1	 NC
20110311	FS	2	WM	1	 NC
20110312	BG	0	Mi	1	 NC
20110312	LS	0	Nt	1	 NC
20110312	Ak	0	Mm	1	 NC
20110312	FS	0	WM	1	 NC
20110312	FS	0	WM	1	 NC
20110318	WM	0	Mi	1	 nc
20110318	Mm	0	Nt	1	 nc
20110319	WM	0	Mm	1	 nc
20110319	Nt	0	Mi	1	 nc

The final pairwise:

1	Yale (EC)	28	0.5805
2	Boston Coll (HE)27	0.5828
3	North Dak (WC)	26	0.5880
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5640
5	Union (EC)	23	0.5705
6	Miami (CC)	22	0.5554
7	Denver U (WC)	21	0.5556
8	NE-Omaha (WC)	21	0.5458
9	Notre Dame (CC) 19	0.5533
10	MinnDuluth (WC)	19	0.5489
11	Merrimack (HE)	19	0.5409
12	New Hamp (HE)	17	0.5465
13	Dartmouth (EC)	15	0.5352
14	Maine (HE)	14	0.5319
15	Minnesota (WC)	14	0.5306
---
16	RPI (EC)	13	0.5226

The bracketology is tough. There can be an all WCHA first-round game because the league gets 5 teams into the tournament. However, the NCAA has avoided this in the past and I have to assume they will again.

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
UNO		Denver		Miami		Union
Notre Dame	UNH		Merrimack	MinnDuluth
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	Minnesota	Maine

And if this is even close, I'm heading to Vegas.

[kingdobbs]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Aren't all AQ's considered to be TUCs since they are in the tournament?
(Wasn't this the case in past seasons? I can't remember)

Not anymore. The Bentley incident closed that little hole.

In 2006-07, Holy Cross drew Bentley for the AHA championship. Holy Cross was in the Top 25, and thus a TUC, but a low-tier team that only barely might have made its way into the tourney on its own did a few games go their way. Obviously, it was a win-and-in situation for them, and in theory, it should have also been a lose-and-go-home.

However, it was discovered that if they lost, Holy Cross be in the field as an at-large. Since the victor Bentley would automatically become a TUC, the fact that Holy Cross swept them in the regular season in a four-game series meant that Holy Cross would add a 4-1 record against TUCs to their portfolio. This fact alone would flip 9 comparisons on its own.

Needless to say, the rule did not last beyond that season, and in any event Holy Cross won the AHA championship rendering the possibility moot.

[Numbers]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The bracketology is tough. There can be an all WCHA first-round game because the league gets 5 teams into the tournament. However, the NCAA has avoided this in the past and I have to assume they will again.

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
UNO		Denver		Miami		Union
Notre Dame	UNH		Merrimack	MinnDuluth
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	Minnesota	Maine

Priceless,
Sorry you are a Maine homer. I am a Minnesota guy.
Anyway, it seems to me the bracketology in this scenario would better go:

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
UNO		Denver		Miami		Union
Notre Dame	UNH		MinnDuluth	Merrimack
AHA Champ	Minnesota	Dartmouth       Maine

So, I am left wondering what your reasoning was for switching the #4 seeds, because there are no conflicts I see there. And, I am thinking that Union should face the lower seed, which would be Merrimack rather than UMD. There are no attendance problems here either. Anyway, I think I must be missing something, because you are usually right on it.

Thanks

Oh, and how do you get those columns to line up nice when you do this? I had do to a trial and error after I copied your script.