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**Priceless** · 03-03-2011, 04:32 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

University of Nebraska-Omaha

What's the best that can happen? The Mavericks could win this weekend, win 4 TUC games in the WCHA (knocking out Denver on the way) while Bemidji State (0-3-1) and Quinnipiac (0-2) drop from TUC status. That would give them an impressive 22-5-1 (.796) TUC mark. That would flip the UNH, Denver and Michigan comparisons. That 6-0 record would be enough of an RPI boost to flip comparisons Merrimack, BC and Union. They would probably end up behind just Yale and North Dakota. Technically, they could catch the Sioux, but they are playing Tech 4 times and I can't with a straight face predict they are going to lose. That would put them at number 3 overall, a 1 seed in St. Louis most likely.

The worst that can happen is they lose twice this weekend and twice more to a TUC in the WCHA 1st round, while Bemidji and Quinnipiac stay TUC but they lose RIT. If the Mavs have to play the Beavers in the WCHA the odds for this scenario increases. That would still leave UNO with a 15-15-1 (.500) record. That would flip 10 comparisons and knock the Mavericks out of the tournament.

A lot of this will be determined this weekend when UNO plays a pair at UMD.

**Priceless** · 03-04-2011, 10:52 AM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Pairwise games of the week:

#3 Boston College vs #12 New Hampshire
Aside from determining the Hockey East title and playoff seeding, the game features two team that are TUC and the outcomes will have a major implication on the COp component. A split would actually hurt both teams, as they are above .500 vs TUC. Taking at least 3 points is idea for both teams.

#8 Nebraska-Omaha vs #11 Minn-Duluth
UNO still has eyes on a number 1 seed, whereas UMD now just wants to make the field. The Bulldogs are quite familiar with being on the wrong end of the bubble on Selection Sunday.

#32 Quinnipiac vs Brown
A sweep here ensures that Qn will be a TUC when the season ends. Teams that are hoping they stay as a TUC (Yale, Cornell, Union) and those who are hoping they will fall off the cliff (UNO, RPI) should be watching intently.

#23 Alaska vs Michigan State
Alaska is firmly entrenched as a TUC and now should be focused on making a run to the NCAAs. MSU is right at the TUC line. Two wins in Fairbanks and at least one at Notre Dame will get them there.

**Priceless** · 03-04-2011, 11:31 AM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Originally posted by unh1982 View Post

Priceless saw your thread below is it possable if unh ran the table or lost one to BC but win hockey east, could they get down to a 4 th in power

If UNH splits this weekend but goes on to win Hockey East, they're tied for 4th with BC. If they win HE by defeating Merrimack instead of BC, they would be in 4th.

Caveat: This was done in a vacuum. While UNH is playing its games, Michigan, Denver etc are also playing and could move up or down based on their own performance. They are still eligible for a #1 seed, but it is unlikely.

**Priceless** · 03-04-2011, 04:56 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The script for tonight's games:

Code:

20110304	OS	0	LS	0	 NC
20110304	BG	0	NM	0	 NC
20110304	MS	0	Ak	0	 NC
20110304	Qn	0	Bn	0	 NC
20110304	Cg	0	RP	0	 NC
20110304	SL	0	Pn	0	 NC
20110304	Ha	0	Ck	0	 NC
20110304	NH	0	BC	0	 he
20110304	BU	0	NE	0	 he
20110304	ML	0	Vt	0	 he
20110304	Me	0	MA	0	 he
20110304	Pv	0	Mr	0	 he
20110304	Mn	0	BS	0	 wc
20110304	SC	0	DU	0	 wc
20110304	AA	0	Mk	0	 wc
20110304	ND	0	MT	0	 wc
20110304	NO	0	MD	0	 wc
20110304	CC	0	Wi	0	 wc

**Priceless** · 03-04-2011, 11:19 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If Alaska wins:

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	31	0.5821
2	North Dak (WC)	30	0.5845
3	Boston Coll (HE)29	0.5721
4	Michigan (CC)	28	0.5574
5	Union (EC)	25	0.5636
6	Merrimack (HE)	25	0.5524
7	Denver U (WC)	25	0.5514
8	MinnDuluth (WC)	24	0.5533
9	Miami (CC)	23	0.5504
10	Notre Dame (CC) 22	0.5514
11	New Hamp (HE)	21	0.5462
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	21	0.5416
13	RPI (EC)	19	0.5339
14	CO College (WC)	18	0.5292
15	Boston Univ (HE)16	0.5383
---
16	Maine (HE)	16	0.5341
17	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5307

Code:

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		Minn-Duluth
UNO		UNH		Miami		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	RPI		Colorado Coll	Boston U

If Michigan State wins:

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	32	0.5820
2	North Dak (WC)	31	0.5843
3	Boston Coll (HE)30	0.5722
4	Michigan (CC)	28	0.5573
5	Merrimack (HE)	27	0.5525
6	Union (EC)	26	0.5634
7	Notre Dame (CC)	26	0.5513
8	Denver U (WC)	26	0.5513
9	Miami (CC)	24	0.5504
10	MinnDuluth (WC)	24	0.5533
11	New Hamp (HE)	22	0.5462
12	NE-Omaha (WC)	21	0.5415
13	RPI (EC)	19	0.5340
14	CO College (WC)	19	0.5292
15	West Mich (CC)	18	0.5290
---
16	Boston U (HE)	17	0.5384
17	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5306

Code:

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		Notre Dame
UNO		UNH		Miami		Minn-Duluth
AHA Champ	RPI		Colorado Coll	W Michigan

**Eaglefan06** · 03-05-2011, 08:54 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

BC helps themselves tonight. But they also hurt themselves at the same time. NCAA is probably praying UNH wins a few HE games to get them off the #4 seed line.

**Priceless** · 03-05-2011, 10:30 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The loss of Bemidji State as a TUC is huge for several teams. At the top of the field, North Dakota has dropped to #3. Colorado College drops out of the field entirely. UNO has solidified it's position as a #2 seed and still has their eyes on the final #1 seed.

If Denver wins, the late game in Alaska will have no impact on the pairwise. Update coming shortly...

**Priceless** · 03-05-2011, 10:56 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5815
2	Boston Coll (HE)28	0.5756
3	North Dak (WC)	27	0.5839
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5577
5	Denver U (WC)	24	0.5537
6	Union (EC)	23	0.5629
7	NE-Omaha (WC)	23	0.5441
8	Merrimack (HE)	22	0.5455
9	Miami (CC)	21	0.5508
10	Notre Dame (CC) 20	0.5512
11	MinnDuluth (WC)	20	0.5492
12	New Hamp (HE)	17	0.5428
13	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5306
14	RPI (EC)	16	0.5281
15	West Mich (CC)	15	0.5299
---
16	Boston U (HE)	14	0.5338
17	CO College (WC)	14	0.5249

Code:

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		UNO
Minn-Duluth	UNH		Miami		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	RPI		Dartmouth	W Michigan

If MSU wins, the TUC line will be

Code:

AK-Fairbanks	0.5086
RIT	        0.5039
MSU-Mankato	0.5022
Cornell	        0.5022
Air Force	0.5019
---
Mich State	0.5000
Robert Morris	0.4983*
Bemidji State	0.4976
Niagara	        0.4960*
Lake Superior	0.4940
NorthEastern	0.4936
Northern Mich	0.4928

If Alaska gets the win:

Code:

Quinnipiac	0.5087
RIT	        0.5040
MSU-Mankato	0.5023
Cornell	        0.5021
Air Force	0.5021
---
Robert Morris	0.4984*
Bemidji State	0.4976
Niagara	        0.4960*
Lake Superior	0.4940
NorthEastern	0.4936
Mich State	0.4933*
Northern Mich	0.4928

* - team is done playing for the season

**Slash01** · 03-05-2011, 11:16 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The whole TUC thing is a confabulation of inferior statistics. Use KRACH. Pairwise===Pairdumb.

**FlagDUDE08** · 03-06-2011, 06:29 AM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Originally posted by Slash01 View Post

The whole TUC thing is a confabulation of inferior statistics. Use KRACH. Pairwise===Pairdumb.

The whole TUC thing, though, hasn't been wrong with predicting which teams make the field, though. It's not about our opinion; it's about the commitee's opinion.

**Priceless** · 03-06-2011, 08:41 AM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

There are three games today. All six teams are fighting to stay alive. The only game that features a team currently in the field is #14 RPI v Colgate. With a win, the Engineers keep their NCAA hopes alive; a loss drops them to 17th and ends their season. #26 Princeton is going to be a TUC, but with a win they improve to #24 and advance in the ECAC. Neither Northern Michigan nor Bowling Green will even be a TUC with a win today.

**goblue78** · 03-06-2011, 08:51 AM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I think Brown now says it's too late for the PWR.

**Priceless** · 03-06-2011, 09:48 AM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Here are the scripts for the Hockey East, WCHA and AHA playoffs.

Code:

20110311	Me	0	Mr	1	 NC
20110311	NE	0	BU	1	 NC
20110311	Vt	0	NH	1	 NC
20110311	MA	0	BC	1	 NC
20110312	Me	0	Mr	1	 NC
20110312	NE	0	BU	1	 NC
20110312	Vt	0	NH	1	 NC
20110312	MA	0	BC	1	 NC
20110318	Mr	0	BC	1	 nc
20110318	BU	0	NH	1	 nc
20110319	NH	0	BC	1	 nc
					
					
20110311	MT	0	ND	1	 NC
20110311	Mk	0	DU	1	 NC
20110311	BS	0	NO	1	 NC
20110311	SC	0	MD	1	 NC
20110311	AA	0	Mn	1	 NC
20110311	Wi	0	CC	1	 NC
20110312	MT	0	ND	1	 NC
20110312	Mk	0	DU	1	 NC
20110312	BS	0	NO	1	 NC
20110312	SC	0	MD	1	 NC
20110312	AA	0	Mn	1	 NC
20110312	Wi	0	CC	1	 NC
20110317	CC	0	NO	1	 nc
20110317	Mn	0	MD	1	 nc
20110318	NO	0	DU	1	 nc
20110318	MD	0	ND	1	 nc
20110319	DU	0	ND	1	 nc
					
					
					
20110311	SH	0	AF	1	 NC
20110311	Ca	0	HC	1	 NC
20110311	AI	0	RT	1	 NC
20110311	Mh	0	Ct	1	 nc
20110312	SH	0	AF	1	 NC
20110312	Ca	0	HC	1	 NC
20110312	AI	0	RT	1	 NC
20110312	Mh	0	Ct	1	 nc
20110318	Ct	0	AF	1	 nc
20110318	HC	0	RT	1	 nc
20110319	AF	0	RT	1	 nc

These are defaulted to
2-game series (when necessary)
Higher seed wins every game 1-0

To have the road/lower seeded team win, change the 0 to a 2 - remember to change subsequent games appropriately. Revised CCHA and ECAC scripts will be available tonight.

**Priceless** · 03-06-2011, 10:01 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

And now the scripts for the ECAC and CCHA

Code:

20110311	Cg	0	Un	1	 NC
20110311	Qn	0	Cr	1	 NC
20110311	SL	0	Ya	1	 NC
20110311	Ha	0	Da	1	 NC
20110312	Cg	0	Un	1	 NC
20110312	Qn	0	Cr	1	 NC
20110312	SL	0	Ya	1	 NC
20110312	Ha	0	Da	1	 NC
20110318	Da	0	Ya	1	 nc
20110318	Cr	0	Un	1	 nc
20110319	Cr	0	Da	1	 nc
20110319	Ya	0	Un	1	 nc
					
20110311	BG	0	Mi	1	 NC
20110311	LS	0	Nt	1	 NC
20110311	Ak	0	Mm	1	 NC
20110311	FS	0	WM	1	 NC
20110312	BG	0	Mi	1	 NC
20110312	LS	0	Nt	1	 NC
20110312	Ak	0	Mm	1	 NC
20110312	FS	0	WM	1	 NC
20110318	WM	0	Mi	1	 nc
20110318	Mm	0	Nt	1	 nc
20110319	WM	0	Mm	1	 nc
20110319	Nt	0	Mi	1	 nc

**Priceless** · 03-06-2011, 10:12 PM

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

And the updated pairwise

Code:

1	Yale (EC)	29	0.5815
2	Boston Coll (HE)28	0.5758
3	North Dak (WC)	27	0.5839
4	Michigan (CC)	25	0.5578
5	Denver U (WC)	24	0.5535
6	Union (EC)	23	0.5627
7	NE-Omaha (WC)	23	0.5441
8	Merrimack (HE)	22	0.5454
9	Miami (CC)	21	0.5511
10	Notre Dame (CC) 20	0.5511
11	MinnDuluth (WC)	20	0.5491
12	New Hamp (HE)	17	0.5429
13	Dartmouth (EC)	16	0.5305
14	W Mich (CC)	15	0.5300
15	CO College (WC)	15	0.5245
---
16	Boston U (HE)	14	0.5336
17	RPI (EC)	14	0.5231

Bracketology:

Code:

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		Boston Coll	Michigan	North Dakota
Merrimack	Union		Denver		UNO
Minn-Duluth	UNH		Miami		Notre Dame
AHA Champ	Col Coll	Dartmouth	W Michigan

The TUC line

Code:

Quinnipiac	0.5087
RIT	        0.5039
MSU-Mankato	0.5024
Cornell	        0.5023
Air Force	0.5022
---
Robert Morris	0.4988*
Bemidji State	0.4973
Niagara	        0.4962*
Lake Superior	0.4943
Mich State	0.4935*
NorthEastern	0.4934

Announcement

Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

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