Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

They'd send Denver out East...

That would mean making BC get on a plane even though they're the #2 overall seed. Not to mention the cost of an extra flight. How much does it cost now for the NCAA for the plane?

[redwings8831]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Given that I still haven't seen a definitive word on what actually breaks a tie between two teams, for the sake of this argument, I gave Merrimack the #1 seed over Denver and came up with endless possibilities. Focusing strictly on maximizing attendance and of course avoiding intra-conference matchups in the first round, I was able to come up with:

East:

1. Yale (1)
2. Union (7)
3. Notre Dame (12)
4. RIT (16)

Northeast:

1. Boston College (2)
2. Denver (5)
3. New Hampshire (9)
4. Dartmouth (13)

Midwest:

1. Merrimack (4)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (6)
3. Michigan (10)
4. Wisconsin (15)

West:

1. North Dakota (3)
2. Nebraska-Omaha (8)
3. Miami (11)
4. RPI (14)

Switch Michigan and Notre Dame and I agree. ND can bus to Green Bay.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I have asked the NCAA to clarify the tie-breaking procedures in the event the overall comparison and the RPI don't agree (as with Merrimack and Denver). I won't hold my breath waiting for an answer.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

That sound you heard was the NCAA thanking Harvard for keeping Wi$conSin in the tournament.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If BC wins, the Pairwise remains unchanged. If Northeastern wins, NoDak and BC flip flop. If that happens, the NCAA might swap UMD and UNO in my brackets, but no other changes.

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		BC		North Dakota	Merrimack
Union		UMD		UNO		Denver
Miami		UNH		Michigan	Notre Dame
AHA Champ	RPI		Dartmouth	Wisconsin

[du78]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

If BC wins, the Pairwise remains unchanged. If Northeastern wins, NoDak and BC flip flop. If that happens, the NCAA might swap UMD and UNO in my brackets, but no other changes.

Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay
Yale		BC		North Dakota	Merrimack
Union		UMD		UNO		Denver
Miami		UNH		Michigan	Notre Dame
AHA Champ	RPI		Dartmouth	Wisconsin

I assume you seeded Denver 2nd in Green Bay to keep Wisconsin in that bracket since DU and Merrimack are tied for 4th in PWR. Also since Bemidji now has an RPI of .5000 why aren't they a TUC?

[mookie1995]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

all academic now... congrats to the repeat national champions igles.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I assume you seeded Denver 2nd in Green Bay to keep Wisconsin in that bracket since DU and Merrimack are tied for 4th in PWR. Also since Bemidji now has an RPI of .5000 why aren't they a TUC?

TBRW breaks ties using the winner of the comparison, SiouxSports breaks ties using RPI. The NCAA has never said how they break ties between two teams and only once has the RPI and comparisons conflicted; that was in 2005 and the teams had to be switched to avoid a conference meeting (UNH-BU) anyway. I have asked the NCAA for clarification of the tie-breaking procedure, which I expect them to answer around the time the Sun burns out. For now, I will break ties between two teams using the comparison.

FYI that comparison:

Denver U		                       Merrimack
18-7-5	.5674	1	RPI	0	.5588	19-5-4
12-7-3	.6136	0	TUC	1	.7273	7-2-2
1-2-1	.3750	0	COp	1	.7500	4-1-1
0-0	        0	H2H	0	0-0
                1	TOT	2

As for BSU, I show them with a .4999 RPI. The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT. That is also enough to flip BC/UND so North Dakota is now #2.

Edit:
My bad. I found the rule.

Q: If a game in a tournament goes beyond five minutes of overtime, does the outcome of the game count for NCAA considerations?

A: Any game played to a conclusion, under any circumstances, counts as that outcome for NCAA purposes. While it is true that most regular season games end after five minutes of overtime, if one team must win to advance to a second round of a tournament, the outcome of the game is official and “counts” for both teams. A team losing 10 minutes into overtime has a loss, just as if it had lost in regulation time. If tournament organizers choose to end the game after five minutes of overtime and play a shootout, then the game is recorded as a tie for NCAA purposes.

I'm assuming that winning the Beanpot final counts as "advancing" so BC would in fact get the win. Bemidji would become a TUC with a .5000 RPI. I have just noticed that the What-If calculator at TBRW does not include teams that are .5000 so that will have to be fixed. Using the Additional TUC feature, I included BSU but that did not change anything. Teams now just have an extra comparison.

1	Yale (EC)
2	Boston Coll (HE)
3	North Dakota (WC)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Denver U (WC)
6	Minn-Duluth (WC)
7	Union (EC)
8	NE-Omaha (WC)
9	New Hampshire (HE)
10	Michigan (CC)
11	Notre Dame (CC)
12	Dartmouth (EC)
13	Miami (CC)
14	RPI (EC)
15	Wisconsin (WC)

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT. That is also enough to flip BC/UND so North Dakota is now #2.

Why does everyone keep saying this? This isn't true, and never was true.

The only reason our RPI dropped so much (though we're still in 2nd) is because BU sucks. Which I'm totally fine with.

[Eaglefan06]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

TBRW breaks ties using the winner of the comparison, SiouxSports breaks ties using RPI. The NCAA has never said how they break ties between two teams and only once has the RPI and comparisons conflicted; that was in 2005 and the teams had to be switched to avoid a conference meeting (UNH-BU) anyway. I have asked the NCAA for clarification of the tie-breaking procedure, which I expect them to answer around the time the Sun burns out. For now, I will break ties between two teams using the comparison.

FYI that comparison:

Denver U		                       Merrimack
18-7-5	.5674	1	RPI	0	.5588	19-5-4
12-7-3	.6136	0	TUC	1	.7273	7-2-2
1-2-1	.3750	0	COp	1	.7500	4-1-1
0-0	        0	H2H	0	0-0
                1	TOT	2

As for BSU, I show them with a .4999 RPI. The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT. That is also enough to flip BC/UND so North Dakota is now #2.

Any idea why?

[du78]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Interesting that all of the PWR and RPI calculators have Bemidji's RPI at .5000 yet none of them have them as a TUC. I wonder if the software has been set up to calculate greater than .5000 rather than equal to or greater than .5000.

[unofan]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT.

No, it doesn't. Shootout losses count as ties. Overtime losses do not.

Tournaments can choose to either do unlimited overtimes or a shootout for tiebreaking purposes. If they choose the unlimited overtimes, it counts as a win/loss regardless of how long it takes to score a goal.

My guess is this confusion started when UNO screwed up its preseason tournament a few years back and planned to do a single 20 minute overtime followed by a shootout. so the NCAA called the whole thing off & ruled it a tie after the fact. But that was a one-off ruling.

[Priceless]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

No, it doesn't. Shootout losses count as ties. Overtime losses do not.

Hence my edit at 1215 this morning

Interesting that all of the PWR and RPI calculators have Bemidji's RPI at .5000 yet none of them have them as a TUC. I wonder if the software has been set up to calculate greater than .5000 rather than equal to or greater than .5000.

I've sent an email to Joe to let him know the TBRW site isn't working. The nice thing about that site is that you can add teams as TUC before you run a scenario, so you can just add BSU as a TUC and it calculates anyway. You can also use the various criteria the Committee has used over the years (last 16, bonus points etc) to see how changing the criteria changes the field.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Interesting that all of the PWR and RPI calculators have Bemidji's RPI at .5000 yet none of them have them as a TUC. I wonder if the software has been set up to calculate greater than .5000 rather than equal to or greater than .5000.

It's probably because Bemidji's actual RPI, when not rounding to the nearest 10,000th, is actually below .5000.

[du78]

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

It's probably because Bemidji's actual RPI, when not rounding to the nearest 10,000th, is actually below .5000.

Yep go out 1 more decimal place and its .49995, close but no cigar. Talk about just falling off of the TUC cliff.