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Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

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  • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

    What about #26 Union? We've seen how they can pass the teams ahead of them, but how far can they fall?

    They lose the normal comparisons to the teams ahead of them, but they also lose to Western Michigan thanks to the Broncos beating them twice. The only way for Union to flip the comparison is to play and beat St Lawrence or have Western Michigan play and lose to Alaska. Since everyone is on opposite sides of their respective brackets, either matchup is highly unlikely. Consider that one lost.

    Worse case for Union is the loss of five TUC teams for a record of 5-1-1. They could then lose to RPI and in the consolation game. That would leave them with a 5-10-3 (.361) mark vs TUC. They would lose the TUC component to every team, except maybe Robert Morris. That would flip the comparisons with: Alaska, Ferris State, Miami, Notre Dame and RPI. That gets them to 11 comparisons lost.

    Union also loses COp with Wisconsin if the Badgers play and win two games against UAA, BSU or the Gophers. Wisconsin can finish anywhere from 5 to 9 in the WCHA, so the opponent for the 1st round could be almost anyone.

    Union has not locked up a position yet, but they are likely in, probably as a #2 seed.

    Next up: Merrimack

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    • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

      Is this accurate: http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahoc...npartprob.html

      ?
      LET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA

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      • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

        Originally posted by UnionHockeyManiac View Post
        I wish it was, but considering that they only have a field of 13 under the "lose out" category, I'm guessing no.

        Maybe one of the stats guys can verify.

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        • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

          Merrimack doesn't have much to lose on the TUC front. If RIT falls off the cliff they lose one win. They also don't have any TUC left on the schedule, with a pair with Providence and a likely QF series against Northeastern. The worst they can do is go 0-1. That would give them a 6-5-1 (.541) TUC record.

          Outside Hockey East, that would flip comparisons with Miami, UMD, UNO and RPI. For purposes of this study, we'll assume that each of those teams will be .500 or better vs TUC.

          Dartmouth needs to either beat Harvard(in the ECAC SF) or have MC lose to UNH. They also need to win one more TUC game than they lose (1-1 in AC won't do it). They can play and beat Princeton twice, and then win one in AC, as long as the 1 loss isn't to Harvard in the SF.

          Because Merrimack has H2H wins against every other Hockey East team but Maine, it will be very difficult for other teams to flip the comparison. Maine and BU both have to close sizable gaps in RPI, and even then it's going to be hard to flip it. Even with a potential win over MC at Boston Garden, I don't see a way for either team to do it.

          New Hampshire already wins TUC and COp with Merrimack. The Wildcats either need to beat the Warriors in the Hockey East tournament or close the .0016 RPI gap. UNH can take a step towards that with a pair against BC this weekend. Trouble is, if UNH flips the comparison by beating the Eagles, it brings Merrimack and BC perilously close in both TUC and COp.

          That would be 12 comparison losses placing them squarely on the bubble.

          It's hard to predict where Merrimack will go now. Was last weekend a fluke, or has the team already peaked and the descent has begun? The games against Providence will tell us. For now, I'll put Merrimack in as a #3 seed.

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          • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

            Jayson Moy's bracketology

            This week’s brackets

            St. Louis
            14 Colorado College vs. 4 Michigan
            10 Miami vs. 8 Nebraska-Omaha

            Green Bay
            15 Boston University vs. 2 North Dakota
            11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 5 Denver

            Bridgeport
            16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
            9 Notre Dame vs. 7 Merrimack

            Manchester
            13 Rensselaer vs. 3 Boston College
            11 New Hampshire vs. 6 Union

            The comments section is very amusing.

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            • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

              Originally posted by Priceless View Post
              I wish it was, but considering that they only have a field of 13 under the "lose out" category, I'm guessing no.

              Maybe one of the stats guys can verify.
              But it's obviously impossible for every team to lose out so there would not be a field of 13.
              LET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA

              Comment


              • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                I wish it was, but considering that they only have a field of 13 under the "lose out" category, I'm guessing no.

                Maybe one of the stats guys can verify.
                I'm no stat guru, but take an example like UNH and BC playing, it's impossible for everyone to lose out. My question would be more in the realm of how correct are they in their use of the PWR.
                time to write new history

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                • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                  Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                  Wisconsin can finish anywhere from 5 to 9 in the WCHA, so the opponent for the 1st round could be almost anyone.
                  5th place is almost impossible for them to get; they'd have to sweep CC at home and hope MN fails to split at Bemidji. 9th is almost impossible as well, since it would require UAA to get 3 or 4 points in Mankato *and* SCSU would have to get at least 1-2 points in Denver. The most likely outcome is UW finishes 6th-7th and faces CC in round one.

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                  • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                    Originally posted by Bakunin View Post
                    5th place is almost impossible for them to get; they'd have to sweep CC at home and hope MN fails to split at Bemidji. 9th is almost impossible as well, since it would require UAA to get 3 or 4 points in Mankato *and* SCSU would have to get at least 1-2 points in Denver. The most likely outcome is UW finishes 6th-7th and faces CC in round one.
                    Yes, but they CAN finish anywhere from 5 to 9

                    We'll pick up the list tomorrow with UNO.

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                    • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                      Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                      If three or more teams are tied, ties are broken by RPI. If two teams are tied there is some disagreement as to how the tie is broken. Some (SiouxSports) break the ties by RPI, others (TBRW) use the comparison. It has only happened once where the RPI and comparison disagreed, in 2005, and teams were switched anyway because of an all-HE 1st round game. The NCAA has not said how they break ties.
                      Sorry I haven't been around much this year, haven't had much time to venture beyond SiouxSports. To be clear, I have absolutely no idea what the tiebreaker is. I just use RPI because USCHO always has, and for a long time CHN and TBRW did (both originally being based on the same Whelan code as USCHO). Except when they're obviously wrong (which has happened) I try to make my PWR tables match USCHO just to avoid having to explain why it's different.

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                      • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                        One interesting thing from Moy's bracketology per the Championship Committee:
                        • No. 1 seeds are placed as close to home as possible in order of their ranking 1–4
                        So is a flight no longer a flight for the #1 seeds?

                        Comment


                        • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                          Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                          Sorry I haven't been around much this year, haven't had much time to venture beyond SiouxSports. To be clear, I have absolutely no idea what the tiebreaker is. I just use RPI because USCHO always has, and for a long time CHN and TBRW did (both originally being based on the same Whelan code as USCHO). Except when they're obviously wrong (which has happened) I try to make my PWR tables match USCHO just to avoid having to explain why it's different.
                          I'm going to take FL (Jack Parker ) at his word and assume all ties are broken by RPI. I really doubt the NCAA is going to tell us anything.
                          Nice to see you around...you really ought to get out more

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                          • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                            Originally posted by UnionHockeyManiac View Post
                            I would venture a guess that this site still thinks only the top 25 are TUCs, not all teams about .5000 RPI. Therefore, no.

                            Comment


                            • Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

                              I'm not sure why you're saying that. Not that I have any evidence to the contrary, but the numbers seem roughly consistent with the numbers Priceless is doing. Or, let me modify that... it seems to be on an entirely different system (MWP) which is largely consistent with but not really tracking TUC at all....

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                                I'm going to take FL (Jack Parker ) at his word and assume all ties are broken by RPI. I really doubt the NCAA is going to tell us anything.
                                Nice to see you around...you really ought to get out more
                                Priceless saw your thread below is it possable if unh ran the table or lost one to BC but win hockey east, could they get down to a 4 th in power

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