Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

[Ralph Baer]

When was the last year of this? I believe the last ECAC game at the Garden I remember involved a title game featuring St. Lawrence...

The last one was in 1992. SLU beat Cornell 4-2.

[LTsatch]

I think Bridgeport or Hartford would be excellent choices to host the ECAC's. Semi-easy to get to and the facilities are excellent. A person in the know in the Yale thread stated today that there have already been 3,100 tix sold for the Bridgeport NCAA regional, that does not count the 1,600 alotted for the participating schools, once we know who they are. CT folks love a good hockey game and walk up and third party sales are usually good for those type of events. I believe that is the reason we will also have the NCAA regional in Bridgeport in 2012.

[UnionHockeyManiac]

The ECAC still has a consolation game, right?

Edit: I only ran Union's side of the bracket, but the lowest I could get them was 10th. They do that by losing to Quinnipiac in the QF or by beating either Qn or Bn and then losing both games in Atlantic City.
God that sounds so wrong.

I already booked my trip to Atlantic City and I'm thrilled to book another one for the National Tournament. This team has been such an incredible story and the thought of them having success in the National Tourney gives me chills.

Thanks for everything you do here too. I'm pretty clueless about the pwr for the most part so I appreciate all of your updates and scenarios.

[Priceless]

Let's try this again.

Michigan can catch Yale only by closing the .0249 RPI gap vs Yale. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

But more likely than Merrimack's path. This is how Merrimack can catch Yale:
Have Air Force remain a TUC.
Cornell and Quinnipiac lose their TUC status.
Yale play Harvard in the QF and win in three (this would give MC the COp)
Yale lose two TUC games in Lake Placid Atlantic City.
Merrimack defeat two TUC to win the Hockey East tournament.
That would give MC the comparison 2-1 (3-1-0 to 3-0-1) and (.642 - .615)

But Denver's path is best of all:
Have Air Force, UAA and Bemidji State all remain TUC.
Cornell and Quinnipiac lose their TUC status.
Yale lose two TUC games in Atlantic City.
Win at least one game this weekend.
Play and beat MSU-Mankato in the WCHA 1st round (wins vs UAA or Bemidji would knock them out of TUC status)
Denver play and beat Colorado College at the F5.
If Denver loses or ties one this weekend, win the WCHA final. If they sweep, they can lose the final, as long as it isn't to CC.

Boston College can also catch Yale. Their road is considerably easier because they already have high RPI and TUC records. They also have a chance to nullify the COp advantage Yale currently has.
To get COp out of the way, BC must play and sweep Vermont in the Hockey East QF. They're paired that way right now. Anything short of that and Yale wins COp.
BC can flip TUC if
Cornell and Quinnipiac lose their TUC status.
Air Force remains a TUC.
Yale loses two TUC games in Atlantic City.
BC goes 4-0 vs TUC and wins Hockey East.
While all that is happening, close the .0126 gap in RPI.

North Dakota is #2 but the Hostile and Abusives Sioux are hurt by the fact that Bemidji State (4-0), UAA (2-0-1) and Robert Morris (2-0) are on the TUC bubble. Also hurting them is that they only have one or two TUC games remaining. They will need the stars to align so that their TUC record is above that of Yale's. They need Cornell and Quinnipiac to fall off and likely will still have to win the WCHA title.

This can't all happen. BC and Merrimack can't both win Hockey East. Denver would have to beat CC in the semis before losing to NoDak in the final. Bemidji, UAA, Robert Morris and Air Force all remaining TUC while Cornell falls off the cliff? That all happens and I'm moving to Vegas. Maybe one of the statisticians can devise a program to tell us what the odds of each event happening are.

Bottom line is: Yale is your #1 overall seed.

If time allows I'll do North Dakota next.

[claver2010]

I think Bridgeport or Hartford would be excellent choices to host the ECAC's. Semi-easy to get to and the facilities are excellent. A person in the know in the Yale thread stated today that there have already been 3,100 tix sold for the Bridgeport NCAA regional, that does not count the 1,600 alotted for the participating schools, once we know who they are. CT folks love a good hockey game and walk up and third party sales are usually good for those type of events. I believe that is the reason we will also have the NCAA regional in Bridgeport in 2012.

Worst part of that idea: BPT & Hartford.

[mookie1995]

If time allows....

will bc hurt themselves if they sweep uhn this weekend and knock them to a 4 seed?

[AFHockeyFan]

They both lost to Vermont?

One in a blowout, one in double OT.

[Priceless]

will bc hurt themselves if they sweep uhn this weekend and knock them to a 4 seed?

UNH will have plenty of opportunities to improve their ranking even if they get swept this weekend. But yes, if UNH is a #4 seed and Yale and BC are both #1 seeds, BC will have to go west - probably to St. Louis. That also means North Dakota, Michigan or Denver come east.

The nightmare for the NCAA (and really the venue owners) is if UNH and Wisconsin both end up outside the field.

Edit: So my advice to Jerry York this weekend - Let UNH get the sweep

[Priceless]

North Dakota:

Assuming they win all four against Tech, absolutely nothing will change. Tech isn't worth enough to improve their RPI. Their fate is in the hands of other teams. Their problem is that they stand to lose 8 wins and a tie from the TUC record (UAA, Bemidji and Robert Morris).

We know what they have to do to beat Yale.

Assuming they lose the 8-0-1 TUC and lose the TUC game at the F5 would give them a 16-9-2 TUC record. That's a .630 winning percentage.

BC plays UNH twice this weekend and presumably 1 or 2 TUC games at Boston Garden. They can afford to lose one TUC game and still win the component and therefore the comparison as it is mathematically impossible for NoDak to win the COp component.

Merrimack also wins COp and cannot lose it. Odds are that MC will play Northeastern in the Hockey East playoffs, which is not a TUC. Merrimack would have to win Hockey East while playing and defeating two TUC opponents. If MC draws Maine in the QF they will need to go 3-1 or 4-0 in TUC games. They also need RIT (1-0-0) to stay above the TUC cliff. The only team that could become a TUC is Niagara, which would actually hurt Merrimack as they tied the Purple Eagles (not for nothing, but I've never seen a purple Eagle...)

Michigan needs Ohio State and Michigan State to lose out so they don't become TUC. Assuming NoDak's .630 Michigan will have to go 3-1 or better vs TUC opponents. They also have to make up .0265 in the RPI category. Good luck.

Denver has to play and beat North Dakota at the F5 to even have a chance to flip the comparison. Right now they're down 4-1. A H2H win would make it 4-2. The problem for the Pioneers is that they stand to lose 5-0-1 from their TUC record (UAA, BSU) so catching NoDak becomes even more difficult. They must go 4-1-1 or better vs TUC to catch NoDak. Oh, and if all that happens, they still have to close a .0280 gap in RPI.

UNH can flip the comparison by taking at least 3 points from BC this weekend and winning Hockey East while defeating two TUC.

North Dakota is your No. 2 or No 3 seed. They will be a #1 in the NCAA tournament.

Next up: Boston College

[Priceless]

Boston College:

We know what they have to do to move up; what's the worst the could do?

BC can go 0-3 vs TUC which is 9-8-0 (.529). That assumption is made for everything that follows.

Michigan already has the COp comparison. A loss by the Eagles this weekend will lock it. If BC wins both, it will flip. Michigan needs to keep COp and either gain .0123 RPI on the Eagles, or flip TUC. The Wolverines just need Ohio State and Michigan State not to become TUC. They can even afford the Eagles to win a game vs a TUC, as long as it isn't against UNH a second time.

Denver already has TUC and COp components. BC has 2 H2H wins and RPI. The Pioneers will have to close .0138 to flip the comparison.

Union has to close .0064 RPI on the Eagles. Not easy when the Eagles have two games with RPI-rich UNH and look to have higher rated competition in the league tournament. Still, very doable.

They have a 4-2 edge vs Merrimack. The path for the Warriors is clear: Play and beat Maine and beat BC in the conference semis. The problem is they aren't likely to play Maine in the QF. Without those wins, Merrimack cannot flip the comparison.

Notre Dame will have to go 3-1 or better vs TUC AND close a .0183 gap in RPI.

Rensselaer needs a lot of help, but they can get there. They have to beat Colgate 2-0 and have BC lose a game to either Northeastern or BU. Then they need to sweep vs Cornell (2 of 3 keeps them in TUC status) then win one of two in AC. Things have to fall just right for the Engineers.

New Hampshire can flip the comparison thanks to at least 2 more H2H games. It wouldn't be much of a shock to see UNH/BC in the Hockey East final as well.

Western Michigan can flip the comparison by winning the CCHA Tournament.

It's hard to believe a Jerry York squad will go 0-3 vs TUC in March. BC should finish as #3 or #4 overall and be the #1 seed in Manchester (unless UNH is a #4 seed). Since all of these things can't happen (and 0-3 just seems so unlikely anyway) the worst BC can do is a #2 seed.

That's all for tonight. If time allows I'll pick up with Michigan tomorrow.

[du78]

Great stuff Priceless, keep it up!

[burgie12]

Rensselaer needs a lot of help, but they can get there. They have to beat Colgate 2-0 and have BC lose a game to either Northeastern or BU. Then they need to win 2 of 3 vs Cornell (a sweep knocks Cornell out of TUC status) then win one of two in AC. Things have to fall just right for the Engineers.

Why would Rensselaer want Cornell to stay a TUC? A weekend sweep kicks the Faux Red out as a TUC and brings Rensselaer's TUC record to 7-4-4 (0.6923) while winning 2 of 3 takes the Engineers' TUC record to 9-7-4 (0.5500). Cornell (and we're not too fond of Quinnipiac either) is the last team that we want to see as a TUC.

[Priceless]

Why would Rensselaer want Cornell to stay a TUC? A weekend sweep kicks the Faux Red out as a TUC and brings Rensselaer's TUC record to 7-4-4 (0.6923) while winning 2 of 3 takes the Engineers' TUC record to 9-7-4 (0.5500). Cornell (and we're not too fond of Quinnipiac either) is the last team that we want to see as a TUC.

Good catch. It's actually reversed. I've edited the original post.
Actually, if Quinnipiac and Cornell both fall out, they just have to get to AC. Of course, that's assuming BC goes 0-3...

[Priceless]

Michigan is a tough nut to crack. They have two opponents sitting outside the TUC line. They are 1-2-1 vs Michigan State and 3-1-0 vs Ohio State. OSU is not likely to become a TUC while the Spartans need only a win @Alaska to be very close. If they beat Alaska twice they will be a TUC. Michigan will not lose any TUC teams. They will play 2-5 TUC games in the CCHA tournament.

We've seen how the Wolverines can move up, but how far can they fall?

Right now they have an 11-6-3 record vs TUC. Add MSU to the mix and that's 12-8-4 (.583). For the following comparisons, we're going to assume this, and that Michigan gets swept by a TUC in the CCHA QF giving them a 12-10-4 (.538) record

Denver can flip the comparison by closing the .0016 gap in RPI, which should be a piece of cake with the Pioneers' remaining schedule.

Merrimack can flip the comparison by closing the .0058 gap in RPI OR by flipping TUC. The Warriors already have a .615 record there, and even a single loss wouldn't hurt them - as long as it isn't to COp New Hampshire. If they lose to UNH, the COp is zeroed out and RPI alone will determine this comparison.

Union already leads in RPI and cannot catch Michigan in COp. The TUC situation is tricky because Union has a bunch of opponents (totaling 5-1-1) that could be gone by tourney time. Chances are they'll get to keep the good ones and drop the bad, leaving them with a 9-6-2 TUC mark. The ECAC tournament is set up so that they will play 2 TUC. One win will be enough to flip the comparison. If Quinnipiac remains a TUC but loses twice to Union, they should still be fine.

Notre Dame has to close the .0060 RPI gap AND flip TUC or COp. The only way to flip COp is for Michigan to lose in the QF and the Irish advance to at least the championship game. That would also flip TUC. Since we are assuming MSU becomes a TUC to hurt Michigan, we also assume Notre Dame gets to add the 2-0 record to their own TUC record. By definition they will then play a TUC in the QF. Assuming they win that series they could flip the comparison. If Mi/Nt were to meet in the CCHA consolation game it would be too close to call. That game might decide the comparison.

New Hampshire can flip the comparison by closing the .0074 RPI gap OR flipping TUC. Assuming Michigan ends with that .538 TUC record, UNH would have to go .500 or better in their remaining TUC games.

Miami can also flip the comparison by closing a .0077 gap in RPI OR a H2H win and flipping TUC. If we assume MSU becomes a TUC then we have to add the 1-1 mark for Miami, but Michigan's TUC improves to 12-8-4 (.583) because we subtract Miami's 2 H2H wins. So Miami will need to go 2-0 vs TUC and win the CCHA title by beating Michigan.

St. Cloud State could flip the comparison by winning the TUC but they have 10 games vs TUC on the bubble so it's very hard to predict. We'll know more after this weekend vs Denver.

It's conceivable Michigan could hold #4 or even rise to #3 overall, but my bet is #5 or #6. A #2 seed in Green Bay or St. Louis awaits.

Next up: Denver

[Priceless]

Denver can miss the NCAA tournament entirely. They can also be the #1 overall seed. Volatile enough? They've got enough TUC games left, but they also stand to lose a bunch if UAA, BSU and Air Force lose their TUC status. And they have coughed up a great big furball before in the WCHA playoffs (ask any Pioneer fan, they'll tell you).

Let's assume they lose those 7 games from the TUC mark. Their record is is suddenly 10-8-2. Assume they get swept by SCSU this weekend and then knocked from the WCHA by Mankato (and it has to be Mankato, because UAA or BSU would maintain TUC status if they faced Denver) that would drop them to 10-12-2 (.458). Unless noted, we're going to assume this situation for the following comparisons.

Union already has the RPI lead. They share UAA and BSU as common opponents, so we'll adjust their TUC record accordingly. With Denver's TUC so low, Union just has to win one against Qn. If Qn were knocked out of TUC status, Union would then need to beat Bn and one win at AC.

Merrimack has a lock on COp, so they could head to Florida and watch the HE playoffs on the dish. If Denver's TUC record drops below Merrimack's .615 they flip the comparison.

Furthermore, Denver could lose the comparisons based on COp and TUC to: Maine, Miami, New Hampshire, Notre Dame and Quinnipiac.

In the WCHA they face more problems.

UMD, Mankato, UNO and St Cloud could all flip comparisons based on H2H matchups, TUC and COp.

That would be enough to knock Denver all the way out of the NCAAs. It has happened before.

That said, assuming they're going to go 0-4 is a stretch. Assuming that all three TUC's will fall off the cliff is another stretch. I'm guessing they go at least 3-2, one or two of their TUCs remain and they win all of these comparisons and become the 4th number 1 seed in either Manchester or St. Louis.

Recapping:
#1 Yale
#2 North Dakota
#3 Boston College
#4 Denver
#5
#6
#7
#8

Next up: Union

[Priceless]

What about #26 Union? We've seen how they can pass the teams ahead of them, but how far can they fall?

They lose the normal comparisons to the teams ahead of them, but they also lose to Western Michigan thanks to the Broncos beating them twice. The only way for Union to flip the comparison is to play and beat St Lawrence or have Western Michigan play and lose to Alaska. Since everyone is on opposite sides of their respective brackets, either matchup is highly unlikely. Consider that one lost.

Worse case for Union is the loss of five TUC teams for a record of 5-1-1. They could then lose to RPI and in the consolation game. That would leave them with a 5-10-3 (.361) mark vs TUC. They would lose the TUC component to every team, except maybe Robert Morris. That would flip the comparisons with: Alaska, Ferris State, Miami, Notre Dame and RPI. That gets them to 11 comparisons lost.

Union also loses COp with Wisconsin if the Badgers play and win two games against UAA, BSU or the Gophers. Wisconsin can finish anywhere from 5 to 9 in the WCHA, so the opponent for the 1st round could be almost anyone.

Union has not locked up a position yet, but they are likely in, probably as a #2 seed.

Next up: Merrimack

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Is this accurate: http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahoc...npartprob.html

?

[Priceless]

Is this accurate: http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahoc...npartprob.html

?

I wish it was, but considering that they only have a field of 13 under the "lose out" category, I'm guessing no.

Maybe one of the stats guys can verify.

[Priceless]

Merrimack doesn't have much to lose on the TUC front. If RIT falls off the cliff they lose one win. They also don't have any TUC left on the schedule, with a pair with Providence and a likely QF series against Northeastern. The worst they can do is go 0-1. That would give them a 6-5-1 (.541) TUC record.

Outside Hockey East, that would flip comparisons with Miami, UMD, UNO and RPI. For purposes of this study, we'll assume that each of those teams will be .500 or better vs TUC.

Dartmouth needs to either beat Harvard(in the ECAC SF) or have MC lose to UNH. They also need to win one more TUC game than they lose (1-1 in AC won't do it). They can play and beat Princeton twice, and then win one in AC, as long as the 1 loss isn't to Harvard in the SF.

Because Merrimack has H2H wins against every other Hockey East team but Maine, it will be very difficult for other teams to flip the comparison. Maine and BU both have to close sizable gaps in RPI, and even then it's going to be hard to flip it. Even with a potential win over MC at Boston Garden, I don't see a way for either team to do it.

New Hampshire already wins TUC and COp with Merrimack. The Wildcats either need to beat the Warriors in the Hockey East tournament or close the .0016 RPI gap. UNH can take a step towards that with a pair against BC this weekend. Trouble is, if UNH flips the comparison by beating the Eagles, it brings Merrimack and BC perilously close in both TUC and COp.

That would be 12 comparison losses placing them squarely on the bubble.

It's hard to predict where Merrimack will go now. Was last weekend a fluke, or has the team already peaked and the descent has begun? The games against Providence will tell us. For now, I'll put Merrimack in as a #3 seed.

[Priceless]

Jayson Moy's bracketology

This week’s brackets

St. Louis
14 Colorado College vs. 4 Michigan
10 Miami vs. 8 Nebraska-Omaha

Green Bay
15 Boston University vs. 2 North Dakota
11 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 5 Denver

Bridgeport
16 RIT vs. 1 Yale
9 Notre Dame vs. 7 Merrimack

Manchester
13 Rensselaer vs. 3 Boston College
11 New Hampshire vs. 6 Union

The comments section is very amusing.