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Thread: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

  1. #1
    Kicizapi Cetan
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    Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Well, the day is here (and thank you God, because I can't stand the election ads any longer).

    Make your prognostications here. And I mean specific. Pick the upset. Pick the margin of a candidate over another. Pick how the House or Senate splits come January (to the numbers).

    Let your inner Nate Silver shine!
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Dems win the House by 30 Seats.
    Republicans keep the Senate with 51 Seats.
    Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
    Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

    Glass at 0%: No Heart

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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    House: +40 net for Dems (they'll drop one in Minny and one in PA due to redistricting).
    Senate: 49/51. Win NV and AZ. Lose ND and either MO or IN (I'd say MO more likely). All other seats remain with incumbent party.
    Gov: +9 with Dem wins in ME, FL, OH, MI, IL, IA, WI, NM and NV. Would love to add GA to that but won't predict that will happen.
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    I think the Dems gain 53 seats in the House. I think the Senate stays the same, 51/49.
    That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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    Kicizapi Cetan
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    I think Heitkamp finishes far closer to Cramer in ND than the polling so far, say within 4 points.
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    House +33 Dems

    Senate 49/51

    Hawley, Cramer, for GOP but Sinema and Rosen for Dem.

    Georgia goes to run off in December, leading to mass hysteria in the Peach State at another month of ads
    "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Michigan

    There will be a hand recount in at least one of MI-8 and MI-11.

    Stabenow wins by at least 5 points, despite losing some ground to John James the last few weeks.

    Whitmer beats Schuette by 3-4 points.

    BI 1 (marijuana) & 3 (voter reg reform) pass, but BI2 re: the redistricting commission doesn't get to 50% because of the Republican disinformation campaign

    The Rest of the Republic

    Dems pick up 34 seats in the House, tilting it 227-208 in their favor

    Senate ends up 51/49 when Dems win NV, and McCaskill and Donnelly both survive by less than 1%, but they lose the Arizona and (obv) North Dakota races

    Cruz wins 53/47.
    Last edited by FadeToBlack&Gold; 11-06-2018 at 10:47 AM.
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    Kicizapi Cetan
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    ND Measure 1 passes (because it has the word "ethics" in it; it's a reasonable proposal with a horrible supremacy clause).
    ND Measure 3 fails (no legalized marijuana this time around).
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Calgary Ted beats Robert Francis O'Beto but within the mandatory recount margin.
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    One more:

    Highest mid-term voter turnout (gross numbers or by percentage of electorate) in last 100 years, and by percentage higher than at least one Presidential election year in the last 100.
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    If you think there is any chance at all that the Dems can switch the Senate (given their near certainty to take over the House), Bovada will give you a pretty nice payout on your $100.

    https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politic...e-201811070001


    On the other hand, if the GOP retains the House and the Dems take over the Senate, we're going to want to check with Bovada to see who, exactly, may have placed some sizable bets on that outcome.
    That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Maryland

    Hogan wins reelection
    Franchot wins Comptroller
    Frosh upset in AG race (more wishful thinking than anything)

    Dems win their 7 House districts, GOP gets their 1.
    Cardin wins Senate reelection

    Constitutional amendment 1 (lockbox gambling income for education) passes.

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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    MI
    Slotkin wins MI 8 by 50/49
    Stabenow wins senate 52/48
    Whitmer wins governor 54/46
    All three props pass, but 2 by a razor thin margin

    Nationally
    Kemp frauds himself to a close victory in GA
    Gillum wins in Florida 52/48

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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Democrats sweep the House and Governor races in Alaska, BANK ON IT!

    Or in reality the Democrats might win Governor but lose the House seat.

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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Maine stays the same, with weasel boy Poliquin barely getting by Dem Golden. Ranked choice voting may screw that prediction up ?? Governor goes to Dem Mills.. Every bond issue passes like they always do
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    One more:

    Highest mid-term voter turnout (gross numbers or by percentage of electorate) in last 100 years, and by percentage higher than at least one Presidential election year in the last 100.
    I'm thinking I'm in good shape with these predictions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    One more:

    Highest mid-term voter turnout (gross numbers or by percentage of electorate) in last 100 years, and by percentage higher than at least one Presidential election year in the last 100.
    Judging from when I voted (11 am & a 50 minute wait), I think it's a safe bet.

  18. #18
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Quote Originally Posted by walrus View Post
    Maine stays the same, with weasel boy Poliquin barely getting by Dem Golden. Ranked choice voting may screw that prediction up ?? Governor goes to Dem Mills.. Every bond issue passes like they always do
    Like I thought, except the home health care didn't pass. 2nd District too close to call with 72% in
    I swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell.

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  19. #19
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    I think Heitkamp finishes far closer to Cramer in ND than the polling so far, say within 4 points.
    So, ah, um, er, uh, ... let's just say I missed on this one badly.
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  20. #20
    Kicizapi Cetan
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    Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    ND Measure 1 passes (because it has the word "ethics" in it; it's a reasonable proposal with a horrible supremacy clause).
    ND Measure 3 fails (no legalized marijuana this time around).
    Two for two here (and Measure 1 is still terrible with that supremacy clause).
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